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April 11th, 2025: Fried, Rice, Williams, Ottavino, Carrasco, Guerrero, Mailbag
🕑 Added 2025-04-11 10:00:34 +0000 UTCThe terrible news keeps coming: Octavio Dotel, briefly a Yankee and a longtime big leaguer, was among the 221 people killed in a nightclub collapse in the Dominican Republic earlier this week. Former MLB player Tony Blanco and Nelsy Cruz, Nelson’s sister, were also killed. Dotel was the David Robertson of his era, that lights-out setup man and sometimes closer. His 28.4 K% was the highest in history among right-handed pitchers at the time of his retirement. The Yankees signed Dotel to a cheap one-year deal in December 2005 and he allowed 13 runs in 10 innings for them in 2006, after coming back from Tommy John surgery in August. Too much death lately. This all sucks. Here now is today’s post. Sorry it’s so image heavy. That’s just how the chips fell this week.
1. Weekday thoughts. The first road trip of the season is in the books and it didn’t go great, but it wasn’t a disaster either. We’ve gotten the full Yankees experience two weeks into the season. Blowout wins, disappearing offense, great pitching, meltdowns on the mound, etc. It’s a long season, folks. Only 150 more games of this to go. Here are a few thoughts on the Tigers series.
Fried/Rice vs. Tigers
A 3-3 road trip isn’t a disaster but it felt like the Yankees were on the verge of one after losing three straight, getting shut down by Tarik Skubal on Tuesday, and at one point scoring only two runs in a 26-inning span. So much for the magic torpedo bats, huh? Those first weekend outlier performances have leveled off now that the season has had a chance to breathe.
The Yankees gave Max Fried $218M to win them games when they need a win, and hoo boy, did Fried deliver Wednesday. It was a masterpiece: 7 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 11 K (video) on 97 pitches. By Game Score, it was a top 12 start in Fried’s career and the best start by a Yankee against a team that didn’t lose 90+ games last year since Clarke Schmidt threw eight shutout innings at Target Field last May.
“Wow, that was incredible,” Aaron Judge told Greg Joyce about Fried’s performance. “Especially coming out, we lose the first two games of the series, kind of down, offense isn’t getting much going. For him to come out there and give us some strong innings, some big outs on his end, even when he got a couple guys in scoring position and got into a little trouble, he really buckled down and helped seal it for us. That was really impressive.”
Fried is not the typical flamethrowing dominator, though he did hump it up to 95.9 mph Wednesday, and his fastest pitch and four of his five fastest pitches came in the seventh inning. He really emptied the tank there at the end. Fried’s dominance comes from the breadth of his arsenal and his command. He paints the corners, dots the knees, elevates at the top of the zone. Here are his swings and misses:
Fried threw seven different pitches Wednesday, including five at least eight times each. He got swings and misses on six different pitches and strikeouts on six different pitches too. Fried is more Masahiro Tanaka than Gerrit Cole in that he operates with surgical precision rather than force, though even Tanaka did not have this many high quality pitches. Look at Fried’s Stuff+ grades the last few years:
Five plus pitches and a usable sixth pitch (Stuff+ groups sweepers and regular old sliders together), and not just through three starts this season. It’s been a constant the last few years. Lots of guys throw five or even six pitches, though they usually have 2-3 good pitches and 2-3 okay pitches. Fried’s arsenal is quality top to bottom. Even on days 1-2 pitches aren't working, he still has plenty of weapons.
Obviously the Yankees won’t get Wednesday’s version of Fried every time out but that is who he can be and it is who the Yankees need him to be this season, with Cole and Luis Gil sidelined, and Carlos Rodón continuing to tease/frustrate. Sometimes you just need your big money starter to go win a game. Wednesday was a “he’s our ace and our stopper” start for Fried and the needed performance for the Yankees. Well done.
Because the offense has been struggling, Wednesday’s game was scoreless into the seventh inning, and Fried’s performance was in danger of being wasted. Oswaldo Cabrera found an opening through the left side of the infield with a two-out, two-strike single in the seventh, setting Ben Rice up for the go-ahead two-run left-on-left homer (video). Everything Rice puts in play these days is blistered. Some numbers:
Average EV: 97.5 mph (MLB average: 89.3 mph)
90th percentile EV: 107.9 mph (MLB average: ~105 mph)
Hard-hit rate: 72.0% (MLB average: 40.1%)
Swinging strike rate: 10.2% (MLB average: 11.2%)
The Yankees added two needed insurance runs in the ninth thanks to two hit-by-pitches, Dillon Dingler dropping two popups near the netting behind home plate, and Colt Keith botching a tailor-made 4-6-3 double play ball. When you’re struggling offensively as a team, sometimes you need a break or two to get going, and the Tigers provided those breaks in the top of the ninth. Good work cashing in.
The bats went cold during the final game in Pittsburgh and in the three games in Detroit. Judge and Rice have been awesome through 12 games. Trent Grisham’s got a nice hot streak going. Paul Goldschmidt’s living the good BABIP life. Otherwise, the offense was not great on the road trip:
Goldy + Grisham + Judge + Rice: .341/.417/.516 (173 wRC+), 4 HR, 10. 7 BB%, 17.5 K%
Everyone else: .190/.275/.278 (65 wRC+), 0 HR, 6.3 BB%, 30.3 K%
Jazz Chisholm Jr., Jasson Domínguez, and Anthony Volpe went a combined 0-for-28 with 11 strikeouts in Detroit. Jazz is running a ghastly 38.2 K% for the season, though Volpe struck out the exact same number of times in the Tigers series (four each). Not even two weeks ago we were talking about possible contract extensions and how exciting and athletic the Yankees looked. This sport will humble you quick.
A lot of the Yankees’ high-variance hitters are varying the wrong way right now and that’ll be a frustrating constant this season. If you like consistency, I’m not sure the 2025 Yankees are the team for you. The roster is heavy on hitters prone to high peaks and deep valleys. They needed the Fried/Rice game to escape Comerica Park with a win and sometimes you need your ace to dominate and someone to hit a timely dinger. The Yankees needed it Wednesday and got it.
The Devin Williams situation
I am, perhaps foolishly, not overly concerned with Williams. Don’t get me wrong, he sucks right now and needs to be better, but it’s four appearances and 18 batters faced in two weeks, he just had a kid, etc. Williams hasn’t had a chance to get into a rhythm and settle into the season yet. Here are his pitch locations Wednesday. He sprayed the ball all over the place:
Too many of those pitches are balls out his hand and easy takes. The whiff rate on his Airbender, which sat around 50% entering 2024, is down at 27.5% this year. We’re also talking about 41 Airbenders thrown and 24 swings against the pitch. That ain’t much. Williams is historically a slow starter too. April’s been the worst month of his career and not by a little. I don’t want to rush to judgment here.
“I’m still figuring stuff out. I haven’t felt like 100% myself up to this point,” Williams told Max Goodman after Wednesday’s near-meltdown. “… This isn’t the first time I’ve started a season off on the wrong foot. All you can do is keep working.”
Stuff-wise, Williams seems fine. His fastball velocity is building up and nearly where it was the last two years, and the spin and movement on the Airbender is identical to the last few seasons. It is such a freaky, outlier pitch. Williams just isn’t locating well, not that he's ever been a control artist (career 12.0 BB%). Look at those pitch locations again. The Airbender needs to be at the knees, not below the zone or far off the plate. Williams doesn’t need to pound the zone. He just needs to be around it more.
The issue here, like Clay Holmes last year, is Williams pitches exclusively in high leverage situations, and that’s a tough spot for a struggling player. A closer blowing a game is the closest you can get in this sport to blaming one single player for a loss. Letting Williams work through things in close games is not ideal. I also don’t expect the Yankees to make a change at closer. They let Holmes blow 11 (!) saves before demoting him last year, and even then they still used him in high leverage spots, just an inning or two sooner.
I reserve the right to be annoyed by Williams in the short-term but I’m not ready to bury him two weeks into the season either. The track record is too long, the stuff is too good, and the last two weeks have been weird enough that I think it’s reasonable to give Williams more time to work through things before jumping down his throat. The Yankees definitely need him to be better though. Absolutely.
(Nestor Cortes got annihilated in his first start and is on the injured list with another flexor strain, the same injury that sidelined last September and in the ALDS and ALCS. Caleb Durbin has a .300 OBP in Triple-A. Neither team is thrilled with their end of the trade right now.)
The scouting report vs. Skubal
Tarik Skubal, the reigning AL Cy Young winner, shut the Yankees down Tuesday, because Skubal’s really good and that’s what he does. His line: 6 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 6 K on 87 pitches. To honor last postseason’s team, the Yankees put the first two runners on base against Skubal, then did not score in the first inning. With two on, no outs, and a 2-0 count, Judge took a slider here:
Groan. I contend that, as good as Judge has been in the early going (.354/.446/.792 and 247 wRC+), he’s still a tick off and missing pitching he should hammer. Anyway, Skubal came back to strike out Judge, the first of 16 consecutive batters retired. After the game the slumping Chisholm said Skubal went against the Yankees’ scouting report. The Yankees expected hard stuff. Skubal lulled them to sleep with non-fastballs.
“He was attacking the zone and he pitched us completely different from how our scouting report had him throwing,” Jazz told Gary Phillips. “So he kept us off-balance. He hit his spots. I was expecting more of the hard stuff today. He was throwing a lot of offspeed today, which he’s normally a fastball guy. He throws 100, so I was expecting more fastball.”
Here is Skubal’s pitch mix Tuesday:
In his first two starts this season Skubal threw 57% four-seamers and sinkers, 30% changeups, and 13% sliders and curveballs. Last year it was 54% fastballs, 27% changeups, and 19% breaking balls. So yes, Skubal did cut back on the hard stuff Tuesday, but – BUT! – not at first. The first two at-bats of the game:
Goldschmidt: First pitch four-seamer (whiff), second pitch four-seamer (single)
Rice: First pitch sinker (ball), second pitch slider (called strike), third pitch sinker (single)
Five pitches, four fastballs, two singles. Only then did Skubal go heavy on offspeed and breaking balls. He went changeup, slider, slider, changeup, changeup to Judge*, and only three of his 12 first inning pitches after Rice’s single were fastballs. So, Skubal initially pitched to the Yankees’ scouting report. He made the adjustment after back-to-back singles, and shut the Yankees down the rest of the way.
* It’s not uncommon for Judge to not see a single fastball in an at-bat, especially with runners on base.
Chisholm’s comment suggests the Yankees didn’t adjust back (their performance certainly backs that up). They kept waiting for the hard stuff that never came. To be fair, Skubal is so good that the Yankees might have made the adjustment back, and it didn’t matter anyway. But, when one of the players says “he pitched us completely different from how our scouting report had him throwing,” I’m inclined to think the Yankees didn’t adjust back, and kept waiting for Skubal to give them fastballs while he fed them kitchen sink.
Losing a Skubal vs. Carlos Carrasco matchup was not exactly unexpected, but man, when you hear the performance didn’t match the scouting report, and you see how it played out in real time, it’s frustrating. I have grown so disillusioned with the Yankees’ hitting apparatus the last few years and something like this doesn’t help. If the Yankees made the adjustment and Skubal shut them down anyway because he’s so good, fine, but I can’t say I’m willing to give them the benefit of the doubt.
The rent-a-reliever
Welcome back, Adam Ottavino. And so long, Adam Ottavino. It seems the Yankees have a rent-a-reliever arrangement with Ottavino, similar to what they did with Ryan Weber in 2022 and what I think the Braves are doing with Jesse Chavez. Sign him, use him, DFA him, release him, then re-sign him and restart the cycle when needed. Ottavino’s basically a 27th man. A reliever who gets released rather than shuttled.
Here is Ottavino’s 2025 timeline with the Yankees:
Tuesday, April 1st: Signs with Yankees, faces six batters across two appearances
Friday, April 4th: DFAed
Sunday, April 5th: Cleared waivers and released
Monday, April 6th: Re-signs with Yankees, faces three batters
Tuesday, April 7th: DFAed again
Thursday, April 10th: Cleared waivers and released again
Ottavino was replaced by Ian Hamilton Tuesday. The Yankees still have five relievers on the injured list and none are expected back soon. For them, the Ottavino arrangement works because he’s better than the guys they have in Triple-A at the moment and they can skirt around the 15-day waiting period (when you send down a pitcher). They can DFA him Friday and re-sign him Monday, like they did this week.
For Ottavino, this is a pretty sweet late-career gig, no? He’s a Brooklyn native who still lives in the area. He doesn’t have to deal with the day-to-day baseball player stuff and doesn’t have to go on every road trip. Ottavino still has his pitching lab in Harlem (video), so he’s staying ready. He can just show up when the Yankees call him, and a lot of the time that will mean doing nothing more than driving to Yankee Stadium that night.
Contract-wise, Ottavino’s deal is worth $1M, and that’s his salary for 2025, no matter how many times he is DFAed and re-signed. He doesn’t get another $1M every time he re-signs. If he did, the rent-a-reliever wouldn’t be a thing. Ottavino has over 10 years of service time, so he’s fully vested in the pension plan and all that. There are no service time considerations and the salary works for the Yankees.
Another team could claim Ottavino and throw a wrench into this, and if they do, so be it. I bet Ottavino and his representatives communicated to teams that this is their plan though. He’s not willing to play anywhere else (except maybe the Mets?) because he doesn’t want to leave home, so if you claim him, he’ll just retire. That kinda thing. It could be that the other teams were told Ottavino won’t make himself available to them because this is the situation he wants at the end of his career.
The rent-a-reliever arrangement could spread around the league. You have to find someone willing to do it – Ottavino is fully onboard with this, otherwise he wouldn’t keep re-signing – and ideally someone local, which isn’t always easy. I’m guessing Ottavino’s history with the Yankees helps too. They know him and what he’s like in the clubhouse. They’re not doing this with some rando who wasn’t already cool with Judge and other team leaders.
I will set the over/under on Ottavino DFAs this year at 6.5. We’re at two and the season is only two weeks old. One a month the rest of the way doesn’t seem nuts. The Yankees will need fresh relievers throughout the season. Need is not an issue. The question is will Ottavino get sick of it and decide to just stay home and collect his $1M at some point? We’re gonna find out. For now, the rent-a-reliever era is underway.
(Brent Headrick, who threw two scoreless innings Sunday, was optioned Monday to open a roster spot for Ottavino. It was an undeserved demotion. Headrick’s been really good (5.1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 9 K), but he wasn’t going to be available for at least one day, maybe two, and he and Fernando Cruz are the only relievers with options. Headrick will be back soon enough. It does suck he was sent down though.)
Carrasco and the state of the rotation
I hoped Carrasco would be Freddy Garcia 2.0 and veteran savvy his way to an unexpectedly solid season, but nope. He’s at the end of the line, which appeared to be the case last season, when he threw 103.2 innings of 5.64 ERA (4.93 FIP) ball for the Guardians. The Tigers bombed Carrasco for three home runs in the span of 11 pitches Tuesday. He gave up four runs and a lot of loud contact in 4.1 innings.
Carrasco’s in the rotation because Cole, Gil, and Clarke Schmidt got hurt in Spring Training. Schmidt made his second rehab start Thursday and it went well (more in a bit), and the plan is to reinsert him into the rotation either Tuesday or Wednesday. There’s a chance we’ve already seen the last of Carrasco. As long as Schmidt feels good, the moves could be:
Thursday: Schmidt throws four innings in a rehab start
Friday: Carrasco DFAed, extra reliever called up (re-sign Ottavino?)
Tuesday: Extra reliever sent down, Schmidt activated and starts on normal rest
Yesterday’s off-day allows the Yankees to push Carrasco’s rotation spot back to Tuesday, so Schmidt can step in. The Yankees are short on pitching and may not want to jettison Carrasco just yet*. They might want to keep him as a long man at least until Schmidt is stretched out and we’re sure he’s healthy. What I laid out above is just an option available to them. The Yankees could cut Carrasco as soon as today.
* There’s rain in the forecast this weekend and a chance Friday’s game gets rained out, and they’ll have to play a doubleheader Saturday or Sunday (probably Sunday given the forecast). In that case, the Yankees will need a spot starter at some point in the next few days. That spot starter could effectively be Carrasco on Tuesday, with Schmidt then stepping into the rotation to replace him Wednesday. We’ll see.
There’s also a chance the Yankees option Warren and stick with Carrasco as a way to preserve depth, but I dunno. Warren’s at least shown something in his two starts. Carrasco’s walked a tightrope every inning. At some point “preserving depth” crosses over into “we’re not fielding the best possible roster” and I think keeping Carrasco and demoting Warren would cross that line. That’s just what I think though.
Fried’s performance Wednesday was the first quality start by a Yankee all season. The minimum quality start is six innings and three earned runs, or a 4.50 ERA, which is not exactly "quality." The Yankees did not have a starter do that until Game 12. They were the last team in baseball to get a quality start. Even the Rockies and White Sox got one before the Yankees. This is the state of the rotation:
Fried: 1.56 ERA (2.20 FIP), 26.9 K%, 3.8 BB%, 5.8 IP per start (+0.1 WAR)
Everyone else: 6.36 ERA (4.94 FIP), 22.7 K%, 10.6 BB%, 5.2 IP per start (-0.8 WAR)
Hopefully Schmidt’s return gives the rotation a shot in the arm because boy, it needs it. Hopefully he gives them a steady source of innings and competence, if nothing else. Right now the Yankees have three starters who threaten to burn through the bullpen each time out, and that is no way to get through the season. We knew things would be dicey after Cole, Gil, and Schmidt got hurt. There have been no pleasant surprises. Alas.
Miscellany
Aaron Boone era fundamentals were on full display in the ninth inning Wednesday. Judge overthrew the cutoff man on Zach McKinstry’s two-run single (video), allowing McKinstry to advance to second base while representing the tying run. Once a game the Yankees do something like, I swear. We just have to hope it doesn’t bite them when it happens. Fortunately, the Yankees won Wednesday’s game and stranded McKinstry at second … Me on Monday: The Yankees walk too many guys, they need to stop that. A few hours later Rodón walked the No. 8 and 9 hitters, then gave up the Obligatory Homer™, this one a three-run shot. Yes, the second walk came on a ball four that should have been strike three, but I don’t really want to hear it after you fall behind 3-0 on the No. 9 hitter. The Yankees have a 10.6 BB% as a team and it’s 12.2 BB% against the No. 8 and 9 lineup spots. This team loves to make things hard on themselves … Why did Domínguez sit against Casey Mize (righty) on Monday and start against Skubal (lefty) on Tuesday? I’m genuinely curious. Is the answer the Yankees want to develop Domínguez against lefties? If yes, then okay, that’s a good answer. If it’s “we felt this gave us the best chance to win,” then nope … After Skubal on Tuesday, the Tigers rolled out lefty long man Brant Hurter and he cruised through a three-inning save on only 40 pitches. This keeps happening, and I’m gonna continue to update this leaderboard until it stops happening:
1. Yankees: 135 plate appearances against lefty relievers
2. Cubs: 89 (they’ve played two more games than the Yankees)
3. Tigers: 82
4. Red Sox: 74
5. Marlins: 71
The Yankees are almost double the No. 5 team. Opposing teams tell you everything you need to know about your team, and the opponents have told the Yankees loud and clear that they’re very comfortable throwing lefties at them … And finally, J.C. Escarra is a great story and all, but two lefty hitting catchers is awful clunky. The Yankees are not a righty hitting backup catcher away from stopping teams from going to their lefty relievers, but it would help. Escarra’s started 2 of 12 games and is 1-for-8 at the plate.
Injury updates
DJ LeMahieu (calf) was with the Yankees in Detroit and could begin a rehab assignment this weekend. Position players get up to 20 days on rehab and the Yankees have said LeMahieu will need a full Spring Training, which I guess means they will use the full 20 days? Pablo Reyes doesn’t do much of anything and I don’t expect much from LeMahieu. The difference is Boone and the Yankees won’t bury LeMahieu on the bench the way they have Reyes. They'll start him against every lefty, at least … Schmidt (shoulder) made his second rehab start with Double-A Somerset on Thursday. It went well: 4 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 4 K (video) on 61 pitches. Assuming he comes out of that feeling good, he should rejoin the Yankees next week. They need him … Tyler Matzek (oblique) made his second rehab appearance Wednesday and threw two scoreless innings with Triple-A Scranton. He’s got a few more rehab games lined up. Matzek has a May 1st opt out. My guess is he’s added to the roster around that date as long as he stays healthy and looks okay during his rehab games … And finally, Cody Bellinger missed Tuesday’s game, conveniently against Skubal, with food poisoning. Ate some bad wings. I’m not being a smart ass with the “conveniently” remark. It was a good game to miss as a lefty batter. Bellinger is another one of the slumping Yankees. He hit .423/.464/.750 in Spring Training and is hitting .206/.268/.294 during the regular season. Stupid sport, sometimes.
Up next
The Yankees are back in the Bronx and will begin a 13 games in 13 days stretch tonight. That could get a little dicey given the state of the rotation. Here’s what’s coming up this weekend:
Friday vs. Giants: RHP Marcus Stroman vs. LHP Robbie Ray (7pm ET on YES)
Saturday vs. Giants: RHP Will Warren vs. RHP Jordan Hicks (3pm ET on YES, FS1)
Sunday vs. Giants: LHP Carlos Rodón vs. RHP Logan Webb (1:35pm ET on YES)
Monday vs. Royals: TBA vs. TBA (7pm ET on YES, MLBN)
The Yankees can start Fried on normal rest Monday, then insert Schmidt into Carrasco’s spot Tuesday. The rain this weekend may disrupt things though. For now, those TBAs line up to be Carrasco and Seth Lugo.
At 9-3, the Giants are one of the biggest surprises of the early season. They’ve had some late inning heroics (three walk-offs plus another ninth inning comeback) and that isn’t always the most sustainable way to win, but the wins are in the bank. Their offense has been boom or bust in the early going. Look at their regulars:
Either you’re mashing or you’re invisible. No in-between. I should also note that San Francisco has only one lefty reliever: Erik Miller, who’s a left-on-left matchup guy, not someone they can roll out there for two innings. The Yankees have performed well against lefties this season (.282/.357/.554 and 162 wRC+), though much of that comes from blasting the Brewers. Since that series, it’s .253/.297/.438 (111 wRC+) against lefties, and was trending down prior to Rice’s homer off Tyler Holton Wednesday.
2. Guerrero’s extension and what it means for the Yankees. Vlad Jr. is staying in Toronto. It feels like a potential Mike Trout situation (great player stuck on a mediocre team) and also something the Blue Jays had to do. They’ve had a hard time getting players to take their money and Guerrero is a homegrown star who’d made it clear he wanted to remain with the team long-term. They had to re-sign him.
“To trust God,” Guerrero told ESPN when asked what advice his father, Hall of Famer Vlad Guerrero Sr., gave him. “My dad told me to trust God and to try to get the last penny that I could from the organization."
The terms: 14 years and $500M with no deferrals and a no-trade clause. $325M of the $500M will be paid out as a signing bonus spread across the 14 years. That helps with income tax and also ensures Vlad Jr. will get paid during the lockout (bonuses are paid during work stoppages, salaries are not). Guerrero’s contract is just about double Miguel Cabrera’s $248M deal with the Tigers, the previous record for a first baseman. It is the third richest contract in baseball history overall. The list:
1. Juan Soto, Mets: $765M
2. Shohei Ohtani, Dodgers: $700M (before deferrals)
3. Vlad Guerrero Jr., Blue Jays: $500M
4. Mike Trout, Angels: $426.5M
5. Mookie Betts, Dodgers: $365M
Aaron Judge’s $360M contract has gone from top of the market to a bit of a bargain these last three years. That’s how it goes with stars. They only get more expensive. Six years ago Bryce Harper signed the richest contract ever ($330M) and that has since been more than doubled.
Kyle Tucker must be thrilled. He will now be the undisputed best available free agent this offseason, and while he’s a few years older than Guerrero, he is only 28, and he’s a better all-around player. Tucker will be the best available free agent this offseason and the best available in any offseason between now and Gunnar Henderson’s free agency in four years. He’ll be the last legit star on the market for a while.
Knowing what we know right now, of course the Yankees should pursue Tucker this winter. They threw a ton of money at Soto and were willing to live with a suboptimal outfield alignment. They can do the same with Tucker, who’s a much better defender and baserunner while being only a notch worse as a hitter. We’ll discuss Tucker’s free agency when we get closer to it. Vlad Jr.’s deal was definitely good for Tucker though.
A few weeks ago Dan Szymborski ran 2026-28 ZiPS projections for position players scheduled to hit free agency in the next two offseasons. Based on offense only, Guerrero was No. 1 by a mile. Now Tucker is No. 1 by a mile. A Yankee shows up among the players bunched together in the next tier:
Jazz is slumping right now but he’ll snap out of it eventually. And you know what? Even if he doesn’t snap out of it and turns into Joey Gallo 2.0, it was a good dart to throw. Chisholm projects to be one of the top hitters in free agency these next two years, which says as much about the free agent classes as it does him. He also offers good defense and baserunning. Where else can the Yankees get someone like that? They need another one of those dudes.
Between now and Henderson in four years, the best non-first base infield free agents will be Bo Bichette this offseason (he wants to stay in Toronto), Ha-Seong Kim either this offseason or next, and Chisholm next offseason. Others can break out and emerge as a top free agent, sure, but that’s the landscape right now. It’s Bichette, Chisholm, and Kim for the next few years. The Yankees were able to get Jazz now and fill an infield position through at least 2026. It was a sneaky great move given the market.
Chisholm had an ugly strikeout-filled slump last year, that’s just how it looks when he’s going bad, and hopefully he snaps out of it soon. The Yankees need the production and lineup length. That will be the case after the season too. Guerrero is off the board. It’s Tucker or bust in terms of impact players, both this offseason and for the next several. I’m looking forward to the Yankees finishing second for him (kidding! or am I?).
Mailbag Questions of the Week
Allen asks: In the second game with the Pirates Kay made an observation about the ball flying off Volpe’s bat without his “A” swing. I know it’s early in the season, is there any possibility the ball is juiced again?
Anthony Volpe’s bases-clearing double last Saturday (video), the ball I assume Michael Kay was talking about and thus prompted this question, is the one that got me. How does this swing …
… from a little 5-foot-10 shortstop result in a fly ball that lands here?
Is it the torpedo bats? Beats me. It feels like the ball is juiced but the data says otherwise. Drag is up a bit this year, which means the ball is not carrying especially well, and Stephen Sutton-Brown says batted ball distances match the exit velocities and launch angles. Going into Thursday’s off-day, the league homer rate was in line with the same point the last few years. This is through the two-week mark of the season:
2021: 1.17 HR/9 and 13.3% HR/FB
2022: 0.93 HR/9 and 10.1% HR/FB
2023: 1.18 HR/9 and 12.5% HR/FB
2024: 1.04 HR/9 and 11.0% HR/FB
2025: 1.08 HR/9 and 11.2% HR/FB
There are some weird years there. There were pandemic restrictions in place in 2021. 2022 was the short Spring Training because of the lockout. 2023 was the first year with the pitch clock. Those things likely contributed to the league's home run rate to some extent, so this isn’t a perfect apples-to-apples comparison. Clearly though, the home run rate is not crazy high. It’s pretty consistent with the first two weeks of 2021-24.
I should note that other hits are down. Through the first two weeks, the league BABIP was .289 in 2021, .282 in 2022, .300 in 2023, and .291 in 2024. It’s .282 in 2025. Run scoring is about the same, homers are about the same, and other hits are down. We’re seeing the same number of homers with fewer singles, doubles, and triples. That’s bad overall, particularly for the game’s aesthetics. Regular old base hits are good and fun. We need more of them, not fewer.
Alex asks: A lot of travel recently has meant that I've listened to more games on the radio than I normally do. One thing that Suzyn and Dave Sims have returned to countless times was a conversation that Suzyn had with the, if I remember this correctly, "analytics staff" who told her that Max Fried throws eleven different pitches. According to Baseball Savant he throws seven (a four seam fastball, a sinker, a curveball, a sweeper, a changeup, a cutter, and a different sort of slider). I don't doubt that Suzyn was actually told this about Fried, and I wish she either asked or, if she did ask, would enumerate the eleven pitches the team says he throws. Are there pitches he hasn't thrown yet? Are the missing pitches subtle shape changes that aren't registering as separate pitches on Savant? If so, what do you think they are, based on the movement plot and your understanding of how he pitches?
Statcast has 15 different pitch type classifications. I’m gonna drop them into buckets:
Fastballs: Four-seamer, sinker, cutter
Breaking: Curveball, knuckle curve, slow curve, slider, sweeper, slurve
Offspeed: Changeup, splitter, forkball, screwball
Other: Knuckleball, eephus
There has not been a real eephus pitch (like this) in a very long time. All the eephus pitches recorded in the pitch-tracking era are lobs from position player pitchers or knuckleballs the algorithm doesn’t know what to do with. So, it’s really more like 14 pitch types, which is about five more than I would’ve guessed.
Based on movement, Fried has seven distinct pitches: four-seamer, sinker, cutter, curveball, changeup, sweeper, and a traditional slider. That has been consistent throughout his career. There's not a pitch type he threw in the past that he hasn't yet thi year. Here’s the movement graph (2025 pitches):
Fried does have wide velocity ranges on some of his pitches. The cutter ranges from 85-96 mph. The curveball from 70-79 mph. The changeup from 80-90 mph. Those velocity ranges are so wide that one pitch can function as two (or more?) pitches. A hard cutter and a slow cutter, and hard changeup and a softer one with more tumble, etc. Sonny Gray has this same thing going on with his arsenal (as do others).
So, Fried does not throw 11 distinct pitches, not that I think Suzyn is wrong. He throws seven distinct pitches with variations of a few of them, so those seven pitches can function like 11 different pitches, if that makes sense. Fried’s really good and really interesting. The 97-and-a-slider types are boring in a way. There aren’t many guys with arsenals as deep and as good as Fried’s. There’s a reason the Yankees gave him $218M.
Neil asks: Would it make any sense to just bring up Pereira as the RH bat off the bench? Yes, I know he’s in the ‘he should play every day’ phase of his career, but winning major league games should be the higher priority. I have to think he’d be an upgrade (and a cheap one) over Reyes, no?
I’m not there yet. Pablo Reyes has done nothing but pinch-run once since the second game of the Diamondbacks series, so he’s basically a dead roster spot. In that sense, replacing Reyes with Everson Pereira, who could at least DH against lefties, is an easy move. I would just like Pereira to spend more time in Triple-A in his final minor league option year. He took a .290/.378/.387 (118 wRC+) line and 32.4 K% into Thursday’s game. His 22.9% swinging strike rate – that’s nearly one whiff every four pitches – would be third highest among qualified MLB hitters, and Pereira’s doing it in Triple-A. The Yankees absolutely need another righty bat. I don’t think Pereira is ready to be that guy yet though, and I also don’t want to move him into a part-time role when he needs everyday at-bats. The season is only two weeks old. I’m not ready to push the Pereira button yet.
Jason asks: not that i see this from you in particular, but can we put a stop to “carlos carrasco is [insert random stat] against the tigers in his career” i am alone in thinking how useless this is? besides maybe a ballpark factor so much changes between team turnover, player skill ascent/decline, etc, i take nothing from these type of stats. am i alone?
It depends on the context. If you’re telling me this is how this guy performed when he faced this team last month, and this is how he attacked them, okay, that’s relevant. But Carlos Carrasco’s career numbers against the Tigers? Nah. That doesn’t tell anyone anything useful. Carrasco’s first career start against the Tigers was his first career start period, and it came in 2009. Look at the starting lineups that day (box score):
What’s the point of telling me Carrasco’s career numbers against the Tigers when you’re looping in games like that? It’s easy content and background info to say “Carrasco has a career 3.91 ERA against Detroit” on a broadcast and it’s not incorrect, but it doesn’t have any value. That tells us nothing about how 38-year-old Carrasco might fare against the 2025 Tigers. Player vs. team stats are way overused.
Joshua asks: Kyle Tucker. Let’s say we miss on him. I know you told me last time that you prefer Framber to Gallen…but do you sign one of them if we miss on Tucker, or are you afraid of that many massive SP contracts at the same time?
Unless payroll comes up, yeah, that does seem like too many dollars tied up into 30-something starters. The Yankees already have three with $27M+ luxury tax hits (Gerrit Cole, Max Fried, Carlos Rodón). The Dodgers have four such starters (Tyler Glasnow, Shohei Ohtani, Blake Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto), so there is precedent for a rotation that expensive, but a) Ohtani also hits and is not just a starter, and b) the Dodgers are outspending the Yankees by almost $90M this season. If the Yankees are going to add $90M to their luxury tax payroll next year, then by all means, sign Zac Gallen or Framber Valdez. That won’t happen though. Tucker will be the last chance to sign a star-caliber hitter for a long, long time. If the Yankees don’t sign him, I’m not sure what the pivot is. It will almost have to be starting pitching by default because that’s where the impact free agents will be.
C.J. asks: On a scale of 1 to 10 (1 being no concern, 10 being extremely concerned), where do you put Luke Weaver’s velocity?
I said my concern was about a five a week before Opening Day and I have to bump that up to a six now only because Weaver’s velocity hasn’t crept up much, if at all. He’s hovered right around 92-94 mph since the start of Spring Training:
Weaver’s average fastball was 95.7 mph last season. This year he’s topped out at 95.6 mph and that is the only pitch he’s thrown that actually reached 95 (i.e. no rounding up). Obviously Weaver’s continued to be effective with his reduced velocity, which is why I’m not panicking and not going higher than a six, but 92-94 with some 95s is much different than 94-96 with some 98s. Hopefully the velocity increase happens soon.
Paul asks: My understanding of the torpedo bats is that they are just moving the thick part of the bat to a place where the player is more likely to get it on the ball. My question is, is this custom for each player (move Volpe's down 2 inches and Stanton's 3 inches, that type of thing) based on where they typically hit the ball on the bat, or is it a standard distance?
I don’t know about the rest of the league but the Yankees have personalized torpedo bats. Anthony Volpe uses the VOLPE11-TPD Pro Reserve Maple, for example. Dan Gelston visited the Victus headquarters in Pennsylvania and wrote about these things. There are probably a few standard models too right? You can go buy one a torpedo bat off the rack or whatever (or will be able to at some point). The torpedo bats the Yankees are using are personalized to the hitter though.
Brent asks: Be it MLB or your own opinion, is ozempic considered to be a performance enhancing drug? If so, do you foresee a player being banned the 80 days for using it in the next five years?
I don’t know a whole lot about Ozempic other than it can help people lose weight and that it has legitimate medical uses. This would not be like a guy getting popped for PEDs when he tests positive for a women’s fertility drug. If it has legitimate medical uses, you can’t ban it. If anything, Ozempic would fall under the Therapeutic Use Exemption umbrella, and the league would have to okay its use. There does seem to be some abuse with TUEs (MLB players are prescribed Adderall more than twice as much as the general population based on TUE data), but we’re talking about guys losing some weight. I don’t think that’s a big deal. I don’t think MLB should or will ban Ozempic. Some guys need it, and as I understand it, it’s mostly a good and healthy thing. This isn’t one of those designer PEDs with nasty side effects.
(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)
Comments
John G
Well Devin had a good day today after struggling the first 2 batters. Maybe the changeup is back. Boy, how about Ben Rice?
chuangeUp
Ha To be clear 1 is the mininum, otherwise Cole would've been lower. (rated before he needed TJ, of course)
Big Davey88
chaungeUps ratings 0.5/5
chuangeUp
Ratings out of 5 Gerrit Cole 1 - significant decline each year since 2021 Max Fried 2 - worse and more expensive than Blake Snell Jonathan Loáisiga 2 Devin Williams 5 - top 3 closer in the league Cody Bellinger 1 - worse Trent Grisham for $47.5M Fernando Cruz 5 Paul Goldschmidt 3 - want Naylor, but at least not Lowe/Santana/Walker Tim Hill 2 Ryan Yarbrough 1
Dan G
Devin changed the beard policy. He’s forever cool with me. 🧔🏽♂️
MikeD
I had the same thought initially regarding Ottavino being a rent-a-reliever. It's a way to have an extra arm at the ready without taking up a roster spot. I'm not sure, however, that he gets $1MM just for being available. He was signed to a 45-day advance consent contract, which I believe means he can be cut anytime in those 45 days, but they only pay him for his time on the roster. Be curious if Mike or anyone else here knows how they work pay wise.
kyle
Yeah he'd have to actually intend to retire, so if he's voiced that, obviously a team isn't going to claim him. But no, he wouldn't be able to unretire and become a FA, the claiming team would retain his rights.
Will
I'm with Mike in that I'm not particularly concerned with Williams's performance this early. That said, I hate the idea of letting him "work things out" by continuing to close out close games. Can't they bring him in earlier, and keep a more reliable guy like Weaver in the wings to mop up a mess/close it out? Or is his mentality so tied to closing games that that would be worse for him? (Kinda like how Mo was always a different pitcher in non-save situations.)
Will
So how does it work if Ottavino is claimed by another team, but retires instead? Is there some minimum time you have to stay out, and he can't un-retire immediately to sign with the Yankees?
MikeD
“My dad told me to trust God and to try to get the last penny that I could from the organization." ----- What if God wants you to live a life of poverty, Vlad, and to dedicate your life and fortune to help those less fortunate? I suspect he'll hang up on God at that point. I was hoping Vlad entered free agency and would then be Cohen's #1 target. Tucker as the best free agent available for a few years likely will create another bidding war among multiple teams, and Cohen's "unlimited" funds means the Yankees can't necessarily overpower the market.
Alex G
The Ozempic question posed is a really interesting one…had not thought about that in regard to PEDs. My guess is the league wouldn’t ding someone using it if they have a legitimate reason to do so (ie. significant weight loss).
The Original Drew
I know someone that lost 65lbs in 2 months on ozempic, but 1) needles make me uncomfortable & 2) the long term effects being relatively unknown make me equally uncomfortable.
Max Arad
My understanding is that Ozempic actually causes you to lose muscle as a side effect of the weight loss, which sort of defeats the point of PEDs. I don’t think this will become an issue
Mike Farley
After the extreme agita of watching Holmes and Chapman close games, we are now subjected to watching another closer afraid/unable to throw strikes. It’s as if the baseball gods are laughing at us after 20 years of Mo and his 10-12 pitch saves.
Spookie
I heard Pedro still has family missing in the rubble. This is horrible.
chuangeUp
'Why did Domínguez sit against Casey Mize (righty) on Monday and start against Skubal (lefty) on Tuesday? I’m genuinely curious. Is the answer the Yankees want to develop Domínguez against lefties?' I think you answered that yourself. '… And finally, Cody Bellinger missed Tuesday’s game, conveniently against Skubal, with food poisoning.'
