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CH184 | GSI
🕑 Added 2025-03-03 06:27:24 +0000 UTCNa Seong-mi placed a cup of coffee in front of each person, bowed slightly to Seok-won, who was seated at the head of the table, and quietly exited the room.
With one leg crossed over the other, Seok-won slowly scanned the PI department team leaders seated on either side of the table before speaking.
"I'm sure you've all seen that the composite stock index has surpassed 1,000 points today."
Kim Jeong-sik, the leader of Team 1, immediately responded with a smile.
"Of course! Just a few months ago, the market seemed hopeless as it crumbled. But just as you predicted, it started rebounding in July, and now we've reentered the four-digit range. It's truly remarkable!"
"That's right. Thanks to your guidance, we positioned ourselves ahead of time and were able to reap all the benefits of the index rally."
"With such significant profits, I think we can look forward to strong Q3 earnings."
"It's all thanks to your foresight, Director."
The team leaders, including Choi Ho-geun, were quick to shower Seok-won with praise.
In reality, it wasn’t just empty flattery—his sharp insight had indeed allowed them to maximize their profits.
Seok-won, who had been listening silently with his hands clasped over his knee, spoke in a calm, steady voice.
"Starting tomorrow, each team will begin offloading its holdings in stages. Everything should be sold off by the first week of October."
"……!"
Everyone's eyes widened in shock at the unexpected directive.
‘I had a bad feeling when he suddenly called us in. I knew something was up.’
Choi Ho-geun, who prided himself on knowing Seok-won better than the other team leaders, muttered inwardly.
‘What has he seen this time that no one else has?’
He looked at Seok-won with a mix of curiosity and anticipation.
However, unlike him, the other team leaders struggled to hide their confusion.
Kim Jeong-sik, in particular, seemed unsure if he had heard correctly and carefully asked again.
"Did you say we should sell all our holdings?"
"Yes."
Seok-won nodded without the slightest hesitation.
For a moment, Kim Jeong-sik was at a loss for words. Then, leaning forward, he hurriedly spoke.
"But as you mentioned before, with the expansion of the foreign investment cap, a flood of money is pouring into the market. On top of that, the semiconductor boom is fueling expectations of a long-term bull run. Shouldn't we be buying more, not selling?"
The other two team leaders, except for Choi Ho-geun, nodded in agreement.
Seeing their reactions, Seok-won maintained a serious expression as he replied.
"If that were truly the case, then we should indeed be increasing our bets."
Ahn Soon-hwan, the leader of Investment Team 2, adjusted his horn-rimmed glasses with his finger and asked,
"Director, are you saying this isn't actually a bull market?"
At that, all eyes—including Choi Ho-geun’s—turned to Seok-won, filled with anticipation for his response.
Seok-won picked up the teacup in front of him, took a sip, and set it back down before speaking in a confident tone.
"This rally is nothing more than a temporary rebound caused by the sudden influx of foreign capital that had been blocked until now due to investment limits."
At Seok-won's rather pessimistic stance, Ahn Soon-hwan, the leader of Team 2, hesitated for a moment before offering a counterargument.
"It’s undeniable that foreign capital inflows have played a crucial role in the stock rebound. But fundamentally, aren't corporate fundamentals improving? Exports have risen significantly compared to last year."
Kim Jeong-sik, the leader of Team 1, nodded in agreement and added to the argument in favor of continued stock growth.
"I think the same way. In particular, take memory semiconductors, which are emerging as a new key export product. With the release of Windows 95, demand is expected to surge, and many predict that semiconductor prices will remain strong for quite some time. Looking at that alone, the market seems to have more room to rise rather than fall."
To run Microsoft's newly released operating system, Windows 95, users needed at least 16MB of RAM—far more than what was commonly used at the time.
Naturally, this led to widespread expectations of an explosive increase in demand for memory semiconductors.
'At this point, no one had any idea that this would turn into a dreadful trap.'
Seok-won let out a faintly bitter smile and looked at the gathered team leaders before asking,
"But what if all those expectations are based on a flawed assumption?"
At his words, the team leaders blinked in confusion, as if they had no idea what he was talking about.
Even Choi Ho-geun couldn't hide his bewilderment as Seok-won continued.
"What do you think has been the biggest driver of the semiconductor boom so far?"
"The increase in memory semiconductor demand due to the global boom in personal computers, both domestically and internationally."
Choi Ho-geun, the leader of Team 4, answered promptly.
"That's right. But what if, contrary to expectations, demand for personal computers starts to decline?"
At that, not just Choi Ho-geun but everyone in the room exchanged baffled looks, as if wondering what kind of nonsense he was talking about.
With the internet craze and the launch of Windows 95, the general consensus was that PC demand would skyrocket—so their reaction was understandable.
"Do you know how much a computer costs these days?"
The unexpected question left everyone momentarily speechless.
As if anticipating their silence, Seok-won opened a file folder on the table.
"This is a price estimate for a custom-built PC that I personally obtained yesterday from Sewoon Electronics Market."
The team leaders, wearing puzzled expressions, craned their necks to look at the estimate.
CPU: Pentium-60 (586)
HDD: 560MB
FDD: 5.25", 3.5"
RAM: 8MB
Keyboard: 103-key
Modem: Janet 336
CD-ROM: 4x speed
Multimedia: 16-bit MIDI sound card, microphone, TV tuner card
Price (excluding VAT and monitor): 1.57 million KRW
"If you include a 17-inch monitor, the price easily exceeds 2 million won."
Seok-won turned to Kim Jeong-sik, the leader of Team 1, sitting to his left, and asked,
"What’s the monthly salary of a newly hired college graduate at our company?"
"I'm not sure of the exact amount, but it's probably around 700,000 won."
Although their firm wasn’t one of the top five conglomerates, it was still ranked among the top 50 in the business world. Since it was a securities company with relatively high salaries, their annual pay was on the higher side.
"So, that means they’d have to save up about three months' worth of salary just to buy one. That makes it quite an expensive luxury item, doesn’t it?"
"Y-Yes, that’s true."
"When I bought my PC, it was so expensive that I had to purchase it on an installment plan."
The team leaders murmured in agreement, nodding their heads.
"Even with the release of Windows 95, unless a company is buying PCs for office use, it’s still too much of a burden for the average person to replace or upgrade their computer so easily."
"Ah…"
At that moment, the team leaders finally realized what he was getting at. They paused to think for a moment before agreeing with him.
"Now that you mention it, that makes a lot of sense."
"It certainly wouldn’t be easy for people to replace their computers so quickly."
Although household PC adoption was rapidly expanding at the time, it still wasn't an absolute necessity—something indispensable, like the smartphones he had used before his regression.
‘All people could really do with a PC was basic office work, dial-up internet, and gaming. Given the high price, its utility was relatively low—it was more of an expensive luxury item.’
For a brief moment, Seok-won reminisced about the old days when he had to swap out multiple 5-inch black floppy disks just to play a game.
Back then, owning a computer had been nothing more than a dream due to his financial situation. But thanks to Manager Oh, who believed that computers would be essential in the future, he had been given one.
‘It was the cheapest model available, but because of that, I was able to learn how to use computers.’
Of course, when he first got it, all he did was play games every day.
Clearing his mind of the fleeting memories, Seok-won straightened his posture and spoke again.
"On top of that, as you all know, not just domestic companies but also semiconductor firms in Taiwan, Japan, and the U.S. are all ramping up production, expecting a surge in demand."
At that moment, a thought flashed through Choi Ho-geun’s mind, and his expression stiffened.
"So you’re predicting that an oversupply will cause memory semiconductor prices to drop?"
At that moment, the other team leaders also caught on to his meaning and turned to him with wide eyes.
Seok-won was secretly pleased that Choi Ho-geun, as expected, was the first to grasp the issue.
However, without showing any emotion, he continued speaking in a serious tone.
"If things unfold the way I predict, a brutal winter is coming for the semiconductor industry."
The expressions of the team leaders sitting on the sofa gradually darkened.
Seeing this, Seok-won pointed out yet another problem.
"On top of that, there’s one more negative factor that makes the future market outlook even gloomier."
Kim Jeong-sik, the leader of Team 1, swallowed hard before asking first.
"W-What is that?"
"The exchange rate."
Seok-won glanced around at the team leaders, who were now completely focused on him.
"You all know that the USD-JPY exchange rate, which has been quietly declining, has now dropped to 98.33 yen, right?"
The team leaders nodded heavily.
Kim Jeong-sik, in particular, looked especially grave. He had followed Seok-won’s advice and taken a short position on the yen, so he had been monitoring the exchange rate changes almost by the hour.
"You’re all well aware that Japan is our biggest competitor in exports—not just in semiconductors but also in automobiles, shipbuilding, and home appliances. So what happens if the yen weakens and the exchange rate continues to fall?"
"Hmm… If the yen depreciates, Japanese products will become cheaper in the global market, making Korean companies less competitive."
Kim Jeong-sik let out a low groan, his face growing even darker.
Seok-won then turned to Ahn Soon-hwan, the leader of Team 2, and asked,
"In this situation, the strong fundamentals you cited as the basis for a bullish market will take a significant hit, and exports will likely decline as well, right?"
"…It seems I misjudged the situation."
Ahn Soon-hwan responded with a stiff expression.
‘And that’s not the only ticking time bomb that could crash the stock market.’
Seok-won muttered to himself as he recalled a conversation he had with Manager Oh before his regression.
~~~
"Ugh, politicians are the most useless people in the world!"
Just like any other day, Manager Oh sat in a chair after dropping off his shoes at the cobbler’s. He crumpled the newspaper in his hands in frustration.
Seok-won looked up and asked,
"What’s going on?"
Manager Oh pulled a cigarette from his pocket, placed it between his lips, and jerked his chin toward the newspaper.
"Did you see this?"
Seok-won glanced at the crumpled newspaper before replying.
"Are you talking about the slush fund article on former President Noh?"
"Yeah! Five hundred billion won? That bastard sure stuffed his pockets full!"
Manager Oh fumed as if the money had been stolen from him personally.
Letting out a sigh, Seok-won dabbed a cloth into shoe polish and spread it across the leather, his expression bitter.
"That’s an amount I couldn’t get my hands on even if I worked my whole life."
"Those rotten bastards! It’s infuriating enough that they were pocketing dirty money, but the fact that it’s dragging down the stock market makes my blood boil even more!"
Manager Oh exhaled a cloud of white smoke through his nose, his frustration evident.
It seemed like he was more upset about the stock market crashing than the actual slush fund scandal.
"What does a former president’s slush fund have to do with the stock market? Why did the index, which had climbed past 1,000, suddenly plummet because of this?"
"What do you mean, ‘what does it have to do with it’? The stock market hates uncertainty more than anything. The political world is in chaos over this scandal, and now the prosecution might go around poking into every corner. In an atmosphere like this, who would dare invest?"
Manager Oh scowled, holding the cigarette between his fingers with clear discontent.
"The big players are pulling their money out, afraid of getting caught in the crossfire. On top of that, the sudden instability in the global semiconductor market and the weakening yen threatening exports are making foreign investors dump their stocks too. How the hell is the market supposed to do well?"
Having spent the entire day trying to calm jittery investors, Manager Oh looked like he was ready to collapse on the spot.
"That’s a serious problem. Are you holding up okay, Manager Oh?"
"Hah…"
Manager Oh let out a hollow laugh, followed by a deep sigh.
"I'm miserable, so don't even ask…"
"…Understood."
~~~
After recalling those memories, Seok-won looked at the team leaders, whose expressions remained heavy.
‘The former president’s slush fund scandal will soon ignite a stock market crash, but I can’t exactly bring that up.’
Even if he did, they wouldn’t believe him so easily. More importantly, it was too politically sensitive—mentioning it carelessly could lead to serious trouble later.
“For all these reasons, there are more headwinds than tailwinds in the market right now. We’ve already secured solid profits, so from a risk management perspective, I think we should realize our gains and carefully observe the situation before making any further trades.”
The team leaders exchanged glances, sinking into deep contemplation.
After a long silence, Choi Ho-geun spoke first.
“I agree. We’ve already hit our performance targets, so taking a more conservative approach for now wouldn’t be a bad idea.”
An Soon-hwan, the second team leader, adjusted his thick-rimmed glasses and chimed in.
“I’m on board as well. It’s better to take a breather than to watch our hard-earned profits vanish into thin air.”
“Yes, let’s go with that.”
Kim Jung-sik, the first team leader, quickly picked up on the consensus and agreed.
The remaining three team leaders also gave their approval, prompting Seok-won to nod and finalize the decision.
“Alright, since everyone is in agreement, we’ll start unwinding our positions tomorrow.”
“Yes.”
“Understood.”
And with that, Seok-won and Daehung Securities’ PI team successfully positioned themselves to avoid the dark storm clouds looming over the domestic stock market.
