InkBound
patreon
CH50 | DI
🕑 Added 2025-03-16 02:30:01 +0000 UTCHonestly, it’s annoying. But keeping the public’s interest is also important, so I have to engage to some extent. I was about to casually pick someone to answer a question when… unexpectedly, I saw a familiar face among the questioners.
“Did you also come to apply for redemption?”
Everyone’s gaze shifted at my question, to the person smiling slyly among the crowd. It was Gonzalez, who ranked third on my list of investors.
“No, not for redemption, just curious about something.”
“What is it?”
“Well, the same. How far Genesis will rise.”
“Do you want to hear my opinion now?”
I asked, glancing around. It meant, is it okay to answer here where everyone will hear? Some associates looked disappointed at my reaction.
Even Faber, who had invested just $50,000, made a fuss, but Gonzalez had invested a whopping $5 million.
Naturally, they expected him to be tight-lipped about sharing information. But Gonzalez just shrugged nonchalantly and said, “I don’t mind, go ahead.”
“Oh, really?”
“As expected, Gonzalez has a big heart!”
The associates couldn’t hide their amazement. They were admiring Gonzalez’s leniency, but my thoughts were different.
Gonzalez’s face always seemed bored with life, as if he was tired of everything. He looked like someone who couldn’t find interest in anything. But it was rare to see Gonzalez with such a lively smile, usually only when he expected some intriguing spectacle.
And yet… I was planning to surprise everyone today with a twist.
“So, how far do you think it will rise!”
A nudge in the ribs brought me to my senses. With the investor’s consent, I decided to spill the beans.
“Honestly, I don’t know.”
“What? You believed it would rise and invested, right?”
“If Phase 2 proves effective, I thought it would rise due to the anticipation, maybe to around $400. But it has already surpassed that.”
“But you predicted it correctly up to here, right? What about the future…”
“I’m sorry, but I can only predict up to here. The rest is just a bubble.”
The room fell silent at my words. ‘Bubble’ was the reason. Then someone hesitantly spoke up.
“If it’s a bubble… does that mean it will burst soon?”
“I don’t know that either. I don’t have the knack for reading bubbles.”
It’s true, I really don’t know how far the bubble will rise. I can’t remember details from 10 years ago so precisely.
“But, Merrill Lynch said it could surpass $800…”
“That’s when it hits the market. Of course, if it successfully launches, we can expect more.”
“Then why call it a bubble?”
An associate asked desperately, the hope in their eyes suggesting they had jumped in at a high price. They must have come to me wanting reassurance that Genesis isn’t just a bubble.
‘Where do I even start explaining this?’
I sighed in despair, but soon composed myself and began, “From Phase 3 onwards, the rules of the game change. Phase 2 aimed to prove efficacy, but Phase 3 is a gateway for market entry. There are key variables at that stage…”
“But the marketability is sufficient, right? There were expert analyses too.”
Someone sharply interrupted me.
This guy only wants to hear one answer: ‘Please tell me it will rise more.’
But, unfortunately, “I’m not talking about marketability right now. The biggest variable from now on is… I paused to catch my breath and clearly stated, “Side effects.”
More foreheads wrinkled deeply at my words, but this time, no one objected, thinking it was information only visible to my medically trained eyes.
“Are you saying the side effects are serious?”
“That cannot be known at this moment. We need to conduct clinical trials to find out.”
Of course, me from the future, I know exactly what the side effects of this drug are. It’s a fact that will only be revealed years later: OCA has a lethal side effect—death.
Yes, in medicine, death is also a side effect. Technically, it wasn’t a flaw in the drug itself. Patients who had significant liver damage and took more than the FDA-recommended dose died.
But what good does that do? Such a high-profile new drug, and the patients die because the dose was slightly increased?
The FDA has no choice but to be extremely strict about side effects. Eventually, due to safety and side effect issues, it gets rejected several times, and over the span of 10 years, about a hundred similar drugs flood the market, sparking fierce competition.
Of course, I can’t exactly say all this.
“10% of the population suffering from this disease means that the patient group is diverse. Within the broad category of fatty liver, there are patients with diabetes, heart disease, high blood pressure, and other diseases mixed in. Since everyone reacts differently to the medication, it will take time to check each one.”
“How long exactly?”
“Perhaps at least 10 years?”
“10 years…?”
A sigh of dismay echoed from various places.
10 years. They seemed to have already realized it, but I decided to emphasize it again.
“Of the current funds invested, any money that can’t wait 10 years should be considered a bubble.”
Silence fell. None here were prepared to endure for 10 years, those funds itching to run away at the mere mention of the real exit point.
That is exactly what a bubble is.
“So what about you…?”
Someone’s dry voice broke the silence.
“When are you pulling out?”
This is sensitive information shared only with investors. So I turned to Gonzalez, but before I could even ask, he answered, “It’s okay, I don’t mind.”
His smile was ear to ear. Indeed, he knew.
‘Yeah, this will be fun.’
He must have come here just to witness this scene.
I murmured to myself slowly and turned my head leisurely to face the associates.
And I told everyone my exit point that they were all curious about.
“I’m pulling out tomorrow.”
“Tomorrow?”
“Why?”
The surroundings stirred as if a war was predicted to happen tomorrow.
“Could it be, it will crash tomorrow?”
“I don’t know that either. As I said, I don’t have the knack for reading bubbles.”
“Then why exactly…”
“My original target was $400. It has already crossed that line, so it makes sense to sell.”
“But why specifically tomorrow…?”
This is the interesting part. I deliberately paused for a moment and then continued.
“Investment bankers have a minimum holding period of 30 days. I can only dispose of it starting tomorrow.”
A heavy silence fell. It seems many had not properly checked the restrictions on stock trading. They might have just skimmed through the terms and conditions.
After all, who would have the presence of mind to do so, when the stock prices were soaring two, three, or four times right in front of them?
“So, what happens after tomorrow? Will it crash?”
“I don’t know.”
“But from your perspective…”
One desperate fellow grabbed my sleeve. I calmly brushed his hand away.
“I’m getting out because I can’t predict the future, and you’re asking me to guess. That’s really difficult.”
“But I jumped in trusting you…”
Spreading rumors like this could cause trouble. I decided to clear up any misunderstandings immediately.
“If you invested trusting me, you should just follow me out. The same trading restrictions apply to you anyway.”
My firm response silenced everyone. But let me emphasize it one more time here.
“If you went all-in at the same time as me and haven’t bought any more shares since, you shouldn’t lose anything.”
The silence deepened. They had actually done the opposite of what I mentioned. That is, they watched when I went all-in and bought more when I was watching.
It would be absurd to say, ‘I followed you and it ruined me.’
I gave those who were lost in thought another important life lesson.
“That’s why I told you. Investing based on just hearing about the stock is extremely dangerous.”
***
The next day,
Ha Si-heon, as he had declared, disposed of all his shares. His exit point was $430.29.
“Why…”
“There’s still potential for it to rise…?”
With the clear uptrend of Genesis, many were puzzled as Ha Si-heon did not wait for the peak. Genesis was a typical momentum stock.
What’s important in a momentum stock isn’t the peak. It’s about escaping during an explosive trading volume market.
Especially for someone like Ha Si-heon who held as much as 2.3% of the shares, more so. If there’s too much volume, it can’t all be listed on the exchange.
One could slowly unload using the Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) algorithm, but there are limits to this method alone.
Orders had to be split and distributed to multiple brokers, and private trading measures like dark pools and block deals had to be fully mobilized.
Even then, no matter how careful one is, someone is bound to notice the departure of a major shareholder.
In fact, quite a few brokers were sensing it.
“Something’s up…?”
A month ago, Goldman was contacting every broker to gather up Genesis stocks.
Now that the stock price had soared, Goldman was hurrying to exit.
Does this mean a crash soon? Is there some risk we don’t know about?
Normally, brokers would have refused Ha Si-heon’s volume or only taken on some of it.
Furthermore, based on this information, they might have even unloaded their own holdings.
If that had happened, sell orders would have poured in, and the stock price would have nosedived.
However, things were different now.
Thanks to Merrill Lynch’s $872 report, demand was surging.
Genesis stocks were in such demand they couldn’t find enough to sell.
Brokers were happy to take on Ha Si-heon’s volume and passed it directly to their clients.
Thanks to the overflowing buying pressure, even the large volume of 2.3% was easily digested, and Ha Si-heon was able to dispose of all his stocks at fair value.
Goldman’s associates soon learned of this. The person who processed that order was a Goldman employee.
“Really, not a single share left?”
“Yeah, he completely let go of it.”
Ha Si-heon had now become unrelated to Genesis.
This unicorn, who had foreseen all these miracles, had vanished without any regrets.
Only those who had followed him into the forest, trusting in this unicorn, were left to wander for a while.
Most associates had jumped in after the clinical results were announced. Therefore, the earliest date they could exit was February 9th.
“If we can hold out until then…”
“There’s no guarantee it will drop, right? It’s actually on an upward trend…”
They weren’t even hoping for it to rise.
If only it could hold steady…
But the hopes of these associates were shattered.
The next day, this article appeared:
<WSJ, “Some patients treated with OCA see worsening cholesterol levels…”>
It was the first article about the side effects of OCA.
