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CH294 | GSI
🕑 Added 2025-04-09 02:12:13 +0000 UTC"Did you say Baht?"
As Rodney furrowed his brows and looked over, George Soros gave a slight nod and leisurely picked up the glass of whiskey on the rocks in front of him.
"More precisely, the situation with the Thai economy."
"...!"
Understanding the implication, Rodney straightened up with a serious expression.
"Have you set Thailand as the first target?"
George Soros took a sip of his whiskey, set the glass down, and replied in a measured tone.
"The financial market is sizable, and more importantly, it's much more open compared to other Asian nations. It's easy to move investment money in and out. A perfect candidate for the first shearing, wouldn’t you say?"
After a moment of thought, Rodney leaned forward in his seat.
"Sounds like a good idea. The timing is perfect, too — Thailand's economy, which had been booming with annual growth over 8%, has recently been revised down to 6.7% this year, showing signs of a slowdown."
"Exactly. Despite the warning lights flashing, the Thai government and its people seem to think it’s just a moment to catch their breath after years of overheating. They’re not taking it seriously."
Rodney shrugged with a cynical smile.
"They’re so drunk on the sweet flood of dollars that the thought of an impending crisis doesn’t even cross their minds."
"Which is why, even though demand has already peaked and the market is saturated, they’re still recklessly taking out dollar-denominated loans to build high-rise buildings and luxury mansions all over Bangkok."
Thailand’s domestic interest rate was 18%, while interest rates on the dollar and yen were only around 6–8%—barely half. As a result, not only corporations but also ordinary citizens were taking out foreign currency loans to start businesses or purchase real estate.
As asset values rose, people borrowed even more to buy property or stocks, and this cycle repeated itself, inflating the bubble to an increasingly unsustainable level.
"According to the data, the ratio of non-performing loans at Thai financial institutions has started to rise sharply since the beginning of the year."
"It’s already exceeded 7%, and there’s a strong likelihood it’ll hit 10% by year’s end."
Since George Soros first warned Rodney about a potential financial crisis, he and the Quantum Fund had been closely monitoring the economic situations of Asian countries.
"That means we’ll soon start seeing the first few pulling their money out as they begin to sense the risk."
"Citi and Société Générale are already showing signs of doing just that."
Société Générale, founded in 1864, was not only one of the oldest banks in France but also among the largest in Europe.
"It’s only a matter of time before other foreign investors start to pick up on the unease."
"They’ll try to keep things quiet until they’ve safely withdrawn their funds, but with that much money involved, the rumors will spread fast."
"Money has a smell, and people are damn good at sniffing it out. That’s how it is."
As George Soros set down his glass of whiskey, the ice clinked softly against the sides.
Leaning back in his chair, George Soros continued in a composed voice.
"Once the attack begins, the Thai government and central bank will surely mobilize their foreign reserves and put up a full-scale defense. If we strike too early, we risk exhausting our strength at the front, only for someone else to swoop in and reap the rewards."
Rodney immediately caught on to George Soros’s intent, a sly grin curling at the corners of his mouth.
"You mean we let the other hedge funds wear them down, and then step in to finish the job when the Thai government is already worn out."
"Exactly. The best time to strike is when the opponent has lost their will to fight and is plunged into panic."
Rodney quickly did the math, gauging the timing.
"If we assume the crisis will surface early next year, then launching our full-scale attack a month or two later should be ideal."
George Soros gave a small nod in agreement.
"That sounds like the right approach."
Resting his hands on his knees and leaning slightly forward, Rodney asked, his voice tinged with quiet eagerness:
"How much capital should we prepare for the baht offensive?"
"We don’t know how long they’ll hold out — and once Thailand falls, we’ll need to move on immediately to shear the surrounding Asian countries like Indonesia. So, secure as much capital as we possibly can."
"I’ll make sure of it," Rodney replied with a light smile.
"I’m already looking forward to the big game next year."
Then he glanced across the table at George Soros, a look of renewed admiration in his eyes.
"Designing a high-stakes gamble not against just one nation, but all of Asia… There’s probably no one but you who could pull off something of this scale, Mr. Soros."
Rodney’s eyes were filled with admiration. George Soros offered a faint smile in response, then raised his glass and took a long sip of whiskey.
* * *
[Gunwoo Construction Facing Final Bankruptcy]
Gunwoo General Construction, a subsidiary of Gunwoo Co., is now on the brink of final bankruptcy.
On the 5th of this month, the company failed to cover a promissory note worth 2.5 billion won, resulting in its first default. Today, it was unable to honor another 900 million won note returned to the Seo-Yeouido branch of Wooyoung Bank, marking its third instance of a first-stage default.
Even if the company manages to cover this most recent note, it has already failed to meet its payment obligations three times. One more default will result in final bankruptcy proceedings.
Currently, all construction sites nationwide — including a 386-unit apartment complex in Shinchon 3-dong, Dong-gu, Daegu — have come to a halt. The Housing Project Mutual Aid Association reportedly guaranteed 600 billion won for these projects.
Meanwhile...
Reading the front-page article on Gunwoo General Construction’s bankruptcy, Seok-won let out a low sigh, his expression tightening.
"If a major construction company ranked 26th in the industry goes under, that’s going to cause serious damage."
The company was still making a desperate attempt to survive, but after posting losses of over 69 billion won last year, it had essentially run out of cash. The odds of recovery were slim to none.
"That makes eight major construction firms that have gone bankrupt just this year alone."
In fact, the current crisis among construction companies had been somewhat predictable.
Having made massive profits from the government’s large-scale new town development projects under the previous administration, many construction firms had recklessly expanded their operations.
But spring doesn't last forever.
To rein in the property speculation frenzy, the government had implemented the Real Name Real Estate Transaction System. At the same time, newly built apartments in the new towns were completed in quick succession, significantly raising the housing supply rate. In an instant, the real estate market turned cold.
The result was a surge in unsold housing. Cash flow dried up overnight, and one construction firm after another went bankrupt, toppling like dominoes.
"Last year alone, 145 construction companies shut down. And now, over 100 have collapsed in just the first half of this year... I can’t think of a clearer warning sign than that."
Though construction was a cyclical industry, the sudden spike in bankruptcies — even among top-ranked firms — was like the canary in the coal mine, a clear harbinger of a looming economic crisis.
Tapping the desk lightly with his fingertip, Seok-won organized his thoughts, then reached out and pressed the intercom button.
"Get Director Eom from Finance in my office right away."
[Understood, sir.]
Hearing Na Seong-mi’s reply through the intercom, Seok-won leaned back into his cushioned chair and murmured to himself.
"It may be a bit early, but it’s time to start preparing."
A short while later, a knock came at the door. Eom Tae-jun, the finance director in a wine-colored tie, stepped inside.
"You called for me, sir?"
He approached the desk and bowed politely.
"How much in reserve funds do we currently have?"
Seok-won got straight to the point. Though slightly puzzled, Director Eom answered without hesitation.
"Excluding the funds currently invested by the Asset Management Department, we have about 79 billion won in liquid assets that can be used at any time."
"Our reserves have grown quite a bit since I first came here," Seok-won noted.
"That’s because the cash injection you made last time has remained untouched, and after we restructured the investment portfolio under your orders, the recovered capital was added to the reserves," Director Eom explained.
Seok-won nodded thoughtfully and asked another question.
"What's the current won-dollar exchange rate?"
"Due to ongoing sluggish exports, the rate has risen significantly. As of this morning, it's trading at 826 won per dollar."
It felt incredibly cheap that one dollar was still less than a thousand won, but considering it was just 772 won at the end of last year, the increase was substantial.
Still, if an IMF-level crisis hits and the exchange rate shoots up to nearly 2,000 won per dollar, it’s safe to say the dollar’s still cheap right now.
Brushing aside the fleeting thought, Seok-won clasped his hands on the desk and said,
"Convert all our reserves into U.S. dollars."
Director Eom's eyes widened in shock.
"All of it, sir?"
"Yes, all of it."
Stunned by the sudden order, Eom stood there, mouth slightly agape.
"May I ask why you're making this move?"
"I’ll explain later. For now, just do as I say."
Though still clearly flustered, Eom couldn’t bring himself to argue further when faced with Seok-won’s firm expression. Instead, he let out a suppressed groan and reluctantly replied, watching his boss for any sign of hesitation.
"The exchange rate is already pretty high right now. Wouldn’t it be wiser to wait until it dips a little before converting to dollars?"
"No. If anything, it's going to rise further—not drop."
Seok-won’s voice rang with confidence.
"…Excuse me?"
Eom still didn’t seem to grasp what Seok-won was hinting at, but Seok-won ignored his confusion and continued.
"Which is why I want everything exchanged before it crosses 900 won."
“…!”
In other words, he was predicting that the exchange rate would soon exceed 900 won.
Faced with Seok-won’s unwavering certainty, Eom raised his eyebrows in disbelief, silently thinking to himself that the idea was absurd.
