Pecos Hank
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Sunday February 26 - Severe Storm Event
🕑 Added 2023-02-24 18:39:00 +0000 UTCLong range models saw this event coming days ago and have been fairly consistent run to run resolving a target in the ENH (Enhanced) zone above.
Below, at 6PM, the GFS has an area of 1K+ surface CAPE in a highly sheered environment.
Let's compare that with the NAM below...
Comparing the two models forecast of reflectivity (precipitation). GFS looks good below at 6PM...
The NAM... Nada.
The more optimistic GFS sounding & hodograph below, suggests fairly high based storms (green LCL line and Temperature / Dew point spreads) cruising 52 knots / 60 mph and a slim chance of tornadoes, but perhaps pretty storm structures.
Tomorrow the HRRR model will have its thoughts for the day. This is the model I have been leaning into the most the last 12 months. If higher dew points can advect (move up) into the target area, the tornado threat would increase and perhaps justify a commute. As of now, I'm not loving my chances of scoring decent storm video.
Let's keep the discussion going here.
Comments
Pecos Hank
HRRR & NAM are more in agreement that 60 degree dew points will advect to near Childress TX by 6-7pm. I'm still seeing this as a more QLCS (line/squall) tornado risk than a supercell tornado risk. SPC upgraded the risk to moderate mainly for the threat of damaging winds. Still on the fence. Will decide early, early tomorrow morning.
Pecos Hank
About to dive into the parameters and make a decision.
Isaac Heinold Storm Chasing
The dry line dews in the panhandle are projected to be well into the 50’s, according to the HRRR. Hank, you gonna chase?
