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Supply and Demand
🕑 Added 2021-09-08 10:53:08 +0000 UTCA very basic guide about Supply and Demand specifically for the FUT market.
Supply
Supply means “input on the Transfer market”. This input can be due to multiple reasons, the most common ones are Rewards, WL Sell off, and Lightning Rounds.
Every card that’s in packs currently has the highest supply, there are rarity differences between cards based on rating and card type, but it's still the most supplied category on the FUT Transfer Market.
It's very common to say “there’s no supply for Mbappe because he is in the current TOTW”, but that’s not the whole story. As we know, if a card gets a special card, his Gold version goes out of packs and people can’t pack the Gold Version anymore which means his supply through packs stops. But there is still a supply for Mbappe Gold due to people having him in the club and listing him on the market.
That’s a very common mistake as supply never stops completely, it just gets lower in these situations than usually.
Demand
Demand means “output on the transfer market” or how much people are willing to buy a card if you want to be correct.
Demand can come from squad building, SBCs, traders, or hype. Finding the right source of demand is one of the biggest parts of trading and important to know the market better. As always, I will try to cover this information in the daily update but if you are struggling to find the reason for demand on a specific case, feel free to DM me and we can look through it together.
Balance
The balance between supply and demand determines the price of FUT cards on the market.
A basic rule to remember:
Higher Supply than Demand = Lower prices
Higher Demand than Supply = Higher prices
That’s the most fundamental tip I can give you, you can cover 90% of the trading moves if you truly understand this idea and use it to your advantage.
Out of Packs
As said above, if a card gets a Special Card, the supply for the Gold Version through packs stops which leads to less supply and a general trend of rising prices.
The same goes the other way, Special Cards that go out of packs are also known to rise over time, most known are the TOTW1 cards.
But it's important to know that even if a card is out of packs, it's not immune to any price drops. A market crash can still hit cards that aren’t in packs and make them drop in price due to people selling cards -> increasing supply while lowering the demand -> decreasing prices.
Rewards
Rewards have an interesting pattern for the market supply and demand.
The supply kicks first so the market takes a dip due to higher supply than demand (decreasing prices). This moment on the market can be very short (less than 2 minutes) up to almost 6 hours depending on multiple things working with and against each other.
As the rewards supply slowly decreases, people start to sort out the coins they gained from rewards and buy the wanted cards. This increases the demand while the supply gets lower which leads to increasing prices for the following hours.
Hype/Panic
Hype and Panic are two community-based market impacts, both are based on the supply and demand idea.
It's important to understand that both Hype and Panic can create both Supply and Demand. Most commonly Hype creates Demand and Panic creates Supply.
If there's Hype, you can see increasing prices with the Hype and the resulting Demand for that specific card/cards. The same goes for panic, people usually sell due to the panic of decreasing prices which already starts the downtrend.
The important part is to look out for the right balance. There are many cases of hype or panic being bigger than the reason for it. That means panic for a market crash could be bigger than the market crash itself.
And a tip that saved me a few millions during the past years, selling in the hype is always guaranteed profit without risking anything.
Summary
Higher Supply than Demand = Lower prices
Higher Demand than Supply = Higher prices
Out of Packs aren’t market resistant
Selling in the hype is recommended in most cases
