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Rebound Trading
🕑 Added 2023-09-18 13:29:35 +0000 UTCWhat is Rebound Trading
Rebound trading is the idea to make a profit from the increasing prices after a drop. It’s a bit more advanced and depends a lot on the current market situation. We will simplify a lot in this guide and aim for indicators instead of set rules.
This concept is used most commonly with SBCs and Substitute Trading. Repetitive parts will not be discussed here and we recommend checking out the Substitute Trading Guide if there are questions regarding the cause of the drop on SBCs.
Indicators
There are a few indicators that make this trading method a bit easier but these are not guaranteed to make you a profit.
40% Downtrend
This is something that worked throughout the past years a lot. As soon as a card has lost 40% of its value it usually rebounds a bit again. Knowing this % helps a lot as you can set yourself buy prices and aim for these.
The tricky part is to know if a card is inflated from the beginning or not. This doesn’t work with inflated cards because they shouldn’t have been that expensive in the first place. The same goes for price corrections, this doesn’t work if a card gets a Price Correction.
Unrelated Drops
Unrelated drops happen all the time and they are common for a rebound. Let's take a look at it with the same RW SBC as the Substitute Trading Method.
With the release of an RW SBC, it's very common to see a downtrend on other RW Cards. However, if you notice a downtrend on a CB it doesn’t make sense, and it's an “unrelated drop”. I put these in quotes because there are many reasons why a CB card can still drop but we call it unrelated to simply this trading method.
These “unrelated drops” usually rebound close to the previous price. Make sure the drop is more than the tax to make a profit but there are many cases with drops over 5% and a rebound back to the normal price. It's worth checking the market to find unrelated drops during content time.
Panic Rebounds
This is very common for promos, especially on the Icon Market or ahead of huge promos.
People are always scared of price drops from new promos and they decide to sell their cards in advance to escape a potential drop. However, the panic before the content release is sometimes stronger than the market drop through the content.
In that case, the rebound happens after the content release because people want to buy their old cards again. This also happens if there is a wrong leak or EA changes the content, anything that increases the demand of previously dropped cards can start a rebound.
Price Correction
As mentioned earlier, Price Corrections can limit and even stop a rebound on the FUT market.
Sometimes new content gets released and a card price is corrected to a new average, that’s what we call a price correction. This will be simplified and there are way more reasons and causes for a price correction, but I will mention the most common ones.
The most common price corrections are from RTTK and RTTF cards. RTTK and RTTF are known for their upgrade potential through UCL games. It's very common to see 40% drops on RTTK and RTTF cards if they get knocked out or fail to meet the requirements for an upgrade, but this is a price correction and less likely for a rebound.
Re-releases are another very common price correction, the supply and demand balance changes and that limits the rebound. There has to be an equal amount of demand to supply to see the previous highs and that is usually not possible. Common re-releases are Black Friday or Best-of Releases during other promos.
Another common price correction is the release of a similar or better card in packs, especially if they are the only two options for a specific position. The demand is a lot higher if there is only one card from a position and that increases the prices a lot. An alternative option on the market splits the demand and decreases the prices. This can be a permanent price change and a price correction.
Summary
- Related to Substitute Trading
- Aim for one of the indicators
- Avoid price corrections
