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Russia-Ukraine Flash Report for 4-25-22 12:00 PDT - Russian Forces Combat Ineffective
🕑 Added 2022-04-25 19:09:04 +0000 UTCThe UK Ministry of Defense released an estimate that 15,000 Russian troops have been killed in action since February 24, 2022. This closely aligns with the number that was "leaked" in a "hack" of Readovka, which reported the Russian Ministry of Defense told insiders there have been 13,414 KIA, and another 116 from the Moskva.
Today we got another "leaked" number from a "hack" that reported 7,400 Russian Missing In Action. This is the first MIA number we have seen to date. Based on what we know and all the numbers being thrown around:
- Calculating KIA, WIA, and MIA is extremely difficult, we wrote previously on why it is so hard
- Russian battlefield medicine is performing far worse than modern militaries, the ratio of KIA to WIA is estimated at 1:2.5 - historically it should be closer to 1:3 or 1:4 and for the United States it is around 1:7 to 1:8
- 15,000 KIA aligns closely with the number leaked five days ago, This would average out to 250 Russian soldiers killed per day - if we take the Russian MoD number and add the confirmed KIA from the Moskva - that averages to 246 per day (55 days)
- 7,400 missing in action is the first time we have seen this number - there is no way to validate this and it would include unaccounted for Prisoners of War (they are MIA until you get confirmation they are a POW) - mixed in with this number are POWs that haven't been reported yet and defectors - we'll take the number at face value - that number did not include the 100+ MIA from the Moskva sinking - so we'll add that and make it 7,500
- KIA:WIA is 1:2.5 - estimated 37,500 WIA
- 15000 KIA + 37,500 WIA + 7,500 MIA = 60,000 - which aligns with our previous assessment
- 190,000 Russian troops deployed to Ukraine - 31.5% casualty rate after 60 days of fighting
This indicates the Russian military force in Ukraine is now combat ineffective. It is incapable of launching coordinated offensive along multiple axes. It can make limited gains in targeted battles and effectively hold current territory.
Seven days into the start of "Phase 2," this is exactly what we're seeing.
Without a significant operational pause, the degradation of combat power will continue.
Visually confirmed equipment losses:
554 tanks and the rate of loss is accelerating
- 1,055 armored vehicles
- 66 command, control, and communication vehicles - 42 of these are command vehicles which would contain senior officers for BTGs (major and above)
- 230 artillery and MRLS pieces
- 7 documented Su-34 losses with another 7 in the confirmation process - 10% of the entire fleet (and another operational loss in a non-combat accident during a training exercise in Russia
- 12 confirmed Ka-52 alligator attack helicopters lost and another 4 in the confirmation process - 15% of the entire fleet
- 861 transport, fuel trucks, and jeeps - this does not included transported and commandeered civilian vehicles
Actual losses are higher, and there are hundreds of images and videos in backlog. This is unsustainable.
