TheMalcontent
patreon
Russia-Ukraine Flash Report for 4-26-22 11:00 PDT - Russia Goes All In
🕑 Added 2022-04-26 18:00:57 +0000 UTCIt looks like the offensive push in the east has started today in earnest, and Russian forces are going all in.
We are reading reports of 5 to 8 BTGs pushing south from Izyum, but we don't know how combat effective these units are or how accurate those numbers are.
Goal one - encircle Severodonetsk: No significant progress
Goal two - extend west from Severodonetsk salient to Slovyansk - progress
Goal three - advance to Slovyansk along the eastern shore of the Oskil River from Izyum - significant progress
Goal four - wider encirclement of Ukrainian forces by capturing Barvinkove - no to very little progress
A lot of confusing information. Here is what we think this morning look at the data we trust - a lot of locations will be listed as "contested" because there is so much contrary information.
Severodonetsk Ukrainian Salient:
- Rubizhne - disputed - majority Ukrainian control - Chechens make another false claim the city has been captured which indicates no progress
- Oleksandrivka (Donetsk Oblast - east of Severodonetsk) - disputed - majority Ukrainian control
- Severodonetsk - Ukrainian control
- Lysychansk - Ukrainian control
- Popasna - disputed - no change since last week, heavy fighting today
- Pevomaisyk - Ukrainian counteroffensive - Russian control - quick assessment - likely trying to disrupt lines of supply and communication to Popasnya
- Borovenyky - Unknown - NASA FIRMS data shows fires/artillery strikes but there is no information from the city anywhere on what is happening
Severodonetsk Western Advance
- Kreminna - Russian control - no change - there are reports of fighting but we cannot confirm
- Stara Krasnyanka - Russian control - no change
- Torske - Russian control (captured 4/24-4/25)
- Zarichne - majority Russian control and likely full Russian control - we rate this disputed for now - 4/26
- Lyman - Ukrainian control
- Yampil - Disputed - ongoing heavy fighting - the main line of contact
- Drovinka - Ukrainian control
Izyum Eastern Shore of Oskil River Russian Offensive
- Rubtsi - captured by Russia (4/26)
- Yatskivka - captured by Russia (4/26)
- Krymky - disputed - ongoing heavy fighting - the main line of contact - there are reports that both belligerents are suffering heavy losses
- Oskil - Ukrainian control - forces at moderate risk of encirclement
Izyum Western Shore of Oskil River Russian Offensive
- Mayak - heavy fighting - Russian forces trying to advance west toward Barvinkove - main line of contact - no territorial change
- Novopavlivka - unknown - likely disputed control
- Husarivka - disputed - heavy fighting - liberated by Ukraine 4/23 - main line of contact
