TheMalcontent
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Russia-Ukraine Flash Report for 5-8-22 13:00 PDT - The Empire Strikes Back
🕑 Added 2022-05-09 03:38:45 +0000 UTCThere has been a lot of uncertainty in the May 6 and 7 Situation Reports. We've seen a lot of artillery and MLRS fire, but it has been very challenging to confirm the situation. There has been a reduction in real-time and near-real-time social intelligence from both belligerents. Russian state media has gotten a little better at OPSEC in some of their videos and photos.
Quick updates:
On the Severodonetsk salient, Ukrainian forces withdrew from the northern part of Popasnya under cover of darkness. The settlement that used to be home to 20,000 people is under Russian control. Russian forces are putting a lot of pressure on Severeodonetsk itself. We cannot get any trustworthy information, and NASA FIRMS data is challenging to interpret when it is your only data point. It appears that Ukrainian forces are being pushed back to the city limits.
Russian forces also captured Nyzhnie.
Russian forces shelled the oil refinery in Lysychansk, and the facility is on fire.
On the Izyum Axis, Russian forces captured Oskil. This explains the reports of fighting on May 7, east of Izyum. This is a significant achievement for Russian forces as it connects the Ground Line of Communication (GLOC) west of the Oskil River to Izyum.
Additionally, Russian forces captured Serednye, which is southeast of Korovii Yar.
It remains challenging to get information on the Kharkiv Northern Counteroffensive. Pro-Rusian forces claimed that Ukrainian forces were in Lyptsi on May 6 and May 7. NASA FIRMS data is showing potential fighting just north of the settlement. We believe we would have heard that Borshchova and Slobozhanske were liberated. It is possible that Ukrainian forces moved through the low hills and forested area northeast of Ruska Lozova. But that is only expressing a theory.
The big hotspot we saw on NASA FIRMS between Male Vesele and Vesele was a very large ammunition dump under Russian control that was destroyed by Ukraine.
Comments
Your such a tonic! Ty 😊
We maintain that with current tactics and resources, Russia and supporting forces are capable of taking territory, but don't have the troops or equipment to maintain control. We're seeing that right now in northern Kharkiv (four more villages were liberated and the Russian salient is almost collapsed in only 48 hours). We had a Russian assessment of the situation around Severodonetsk shared with us (checking on authenticity) and the takeaway was Ukraine has set up multiple lines of defense to fall back to, and Severodonetsk is practically a fortress. They believe they can "capture" Severodoentsk but it will take weeks, and at a much higher cost to capture versus defend. Take the last part with a big grain of salt because it is extremely hard to authenticate and I'm sharing near real-time information.
Morning (well in the UK 🇬🇧 anyway) Thanks again for your assessments guys! Is this push likely for the may 9th reasons? And possibly unsustainable? Think you assessed they had the men to overwhelm in certain places but not to sustain? Oh i hope your right ✅️ 😏
