TheMalcontent
patreon
Russia-Ukraine Flash Report for 5-1-22 14:00 PDT - General Gerasimov Wounded?
🕑 Added 2022-05-01 21:14:13 +0000 UTCA lot of chatter on social media and claims from the Ukrainian General Staff that Russian General Valery Gerasimov, the Chief of General Staff for the Russian military was wounded in the same attack that killed Major General Andrei Simonov on April 30.
ASSESSMENT: The details of the planning, targeting, how General Simonov was tracked, and video of the attack itself adds significant weight to reports that General Simonov was killed in action yesterday. Unlike the reports of Kherson where we used the words, "reported" and "claimed" because the attack itself lacked a lot of details, there are a lot of receipts.
ASSESSMENT: We have received what we believe to be very credible intelligence that General Valery Gerasimov is alive and well and has likely left Ukraine. We hadn't reported General Gerasimov being in Ukraine because we had significant doubt about the authenticity of the reports.
Open Source Intelligence and ground reports were able to track two Russian military transport planes arriving in Belgorod last night. Earlier today two Mi-8 transport helicopters left the Izyum area, close to Zabavne with Ka-52 attack helicopter escort. They flew to Belgorod.
There are reports we trust that Gerasimov was seen on the tarmac, boarding one of the transports and was moving under his own power. If he was wounded, it isn't significant.
If the claims by the Ukrainian General Staff was an attempt to flush Gerasimov into the public eye and provide confirmation that he has been supervising on the Izyum front - mission accomplished.
Comments
See two comments about why would Gerasimov be so close to the front lines. Two reasons. First is Russian military culture. They have no NCO corps and the execution of battle plans fall on the shoulder of leaders. Because subordinates aren't empowered to make decisions, higher-ranking officials need to be closer to the fighting. If things go wrong, higher-ranking officials need to take charge. In most modern militaries if the lieutenant is killed, the sergeant can take over, knows the objectives, and is empowered to act independently. The Russian military isn't set up that way. The second thing is Gerasimov's career did not develop by being a REMF (I'll let a military Malcontent explain). He is a field soldier and a field commander. It has been his nature to be on the front. The visit was almost certainly due to the Izyum front floundering. We are now 16 days into the full brunt of Phase 2 Eastern offensive, and on Sunday, it will be 30 days since the Eastern Ukraine objectives were announced. Given the available resources, Russia doesn't have a lot to show. We have no evidence that Putin wants "something" before May 9, but it is a logical conclusion.
Historically NO GENERALS never mind majors or chief of staff Work on any front lines. Their job is pushing around tank and ship shaped chess pieces on a map in a tent somewhere miles away from contact.....DEFINITELY using (ahem) secure comms! I mean come on, even Hitler had the Enigma code!
