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Russia-Ukraine Flash Report for 6-28-22 10:45 PDT - Severodonetsk & Lysychansk Update
🕑 Added 2022-06-28 17:59:07 +0000 UTCAlexander Stryuk, the now exiled mayor of Severodonetsk, gave an update on the situation in the shattered city. An estimated 7,000 to 8,000 civilians remain. Russian forces are not permitting civilians to evacuate to Ukrainian-controlled areas - they can only evacuate into Russian-controlled regions for "filtration." The city has no water, sewer, natural gas, or electricity. It is important to note that public utilities have been disabled for months. Russian forces are not allowing humanitarian aid into the city.
There are a lot of rumors that Ukrainian forces are evacuating Lysychansk or will imminently evacuate. Igor Girkin reported on his Telegram channel that Ukrainian forces would be fully withdrawn by the end of the day. Unlike yesterday, where we had clear skies and great intelligence from satellite and NASA FIRMS, today's satellite passes aren't over combat areas, and NASA FIRMS had an outage for several hours this morning.
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has tightened OPSEC to a level that, candidly, should have been in place since day one. We know the Chechen TikTok crew were killed in combat. There was a Luhansk People's Republic (LNR) public affairs representative who was even worse at operational security - it appears he has also been killed in action. There has not been a report from him or his unit in almost a month.
Other Pro-Russian reporters are currently "in the rear with the gear." in Izyum (the city), Luhansk (the city), and Donetsk (the city).
Russian state media reports create a ton of work for us to find the truth intertwined with the distortions. We hated the time it took to dissect the reports, but we are missing the intelligence they provided.
ASSESSMENT: We know there is intense fighting for control of the Verkhnokamyanka Oil Refinery. The abandoned facility is adjacent to the T-1302 Highway. If and when Russian forces gain control, the Siversk-Lysychansk Ground Line of Communication (GLOC - aka supply line) will be completely severed. Ukrainian forces may be planning to withdraw from the area.
The next line of defense is at Sivesk and then Soledar and Bakhmut. The satellite images we shared yesterday showed that Russia's use of indiscriminate and overwhelming amounts of artillery made the situation in the Hirske-Zolote salient untenable.
Comments
Anton Poliakov
It’s incredibly frustrating. The thing is it’s not new. All of us in the west though that this has changed in the last decade or so, but it looks like things remained the same. Deficient command and control structure combined with outdated tactics, training are not a recipe for success. However, the main issue is concentration of power in basically any dictatorship when everyone is terrified of those at the top because there is no legal recourse against those in power. So people at lower level hide all the faults and report up false and cheerful things. The whole system is rotten.
The reports that Ukraine has or was in the process of a mass withdrawal from Lysychansk appear to have been misinformation. That's why we waited.
The lesson has certainly been learnt from the Ukrainian side about OSPEC although it was never as dire as the Russians who just DONT learn at all even when Generals are killed in volume, and equipment losses are so high. The complete no show of secure coms, the use of state media so brazenly, and the former chechen tik tock brigade and Co have hastened no regret in the Kremlin whatsoever! It's credibly frustrating to see what was supposedly "the worlds second army" have no night fighting capability, no regard for brazen inappropriate use of munitions and supplies and using (to quote you guys) play ground bulling techniques, and their only real advantage being numbers...all be it vastly untrained and poorly managed and equipped! ** side note, I'm in no way frustrated because I support Russia, its just the immense hypocrisy of a so called super power to have absolutely no regard for human rights, life, international law or respect in any form or fashion! The ambiguity of the Intel suggests a real turning point in this conflict that can only hope to serve the Ukrainians well. We praise you malcontents for your work to sift through the rubble of war! THANK YOU!
