TheMalcontent
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Russia-Ukraine Flash Report 12 FEB 2023 17:55 PST - Bakhmut Closed to Press and Aid Workers
🕑 Added 2023-02-13 02:06:26 +0000 UTCThe General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine announced that Bakhmut would be closed to the press and civilian aid groups starting on February 13, 2023, for their safety.
There is rampant speculation that this indicates an imminent withdrawal, but there are no signs of a pullback. Russian forces control 25% to 30% of Bakhmut now. Ukraine has made some progress, or we overstated Russian gains, in the northern and northeast parts of the city. Ukrainian forces are losing ground in the eastern and southeastern parts of the city.
Some are reading this as a sign of a counteroffensive and a tightening of operational security. There aren't any indications that Ukraine is preparing a big operation either. It's elementary dear Watson, Ukraine will continue its defense to maximize Russian casualties.
Ukrainian military leaders insist the M-03 Highway is not severed. In our assessment, this is likely a half-truth. There is an alternate route into Bakhmut using the M-03 Highway through Minkivka and then Orikhovo-Vasylivka and Dubovo-Vasylivka. Most of that route is forested and above a ridge which would require drone-directed artillery to provide fire control. With Russian forces, only 1 kilometer north of the M-03 Highway west of Paraskoviivka, driving that section of the M-03/E-40 would be extremely dangerous.
Ukraine also says the T-504 Highway is still open, which appears to be a half-truth. We know the bridge over the Siverskyi Donets-Donbas Canal is destroyed. Russia says Ukraine destroyed it defensively, and Ukraine says Russia destroyed it offensively. Like the M-03 Highway, there is an alternative route to bypass the bridge, but there is little more than a Jeep track on one section connecting Chasiv Yar to Ivanivske.
Comments
Thanks! I would have to wonder if Girkin isn’t right again, because I suspect that has always been the truth.
It is very hard to say without seeing for yourself. All we see is a filtered view by DNR and Russian censors. There is significant frustration at the cost of goods - fuel, food, drinking water. However, that's a near universal complaint of 7.5 billion people right now so it's hard to determine if this a "sign of the times" or is it worse. There is also frustration in the DNR on the issue with heat. Girkin in one of his latest posts, had a, "maybe Russia doesn't really like the DNR/LNR and just using us to destroy us" moment of clarity. How much does that represent the populous? Can't say. On the surface, you see life goes on in Donetsk like every other wartime city in Ukraine (both sides). It's really hard to say, but after 9 years of filtration and self-selection, the DNR and LNR are pretty much "Russian" from a population stand point.
I am curious. How are citizens in the occupied areas feeling about the Russians these days? Do they still feel breakaway/aligned with Russia or are they regretting their previous actions?
Luke
I do suspect that Ukraine may be setting their conditions for a controlled withdrawal. Or at least putting in the preparation 'just in case' as the pressure is starting to be applied from the north (especially) and the south. But then, even if they do concede the city, what has Russia realistically gained, and for what cost? I understand the territory to the West of the city is high ground, so Ukraine will have fire control over a city and the MSRs to and from it. So Russia (at least in the short term) will struggle to consolidate their newly conquered pile of rubble that they gallantly paid 10s of thousands of lives for. Especially since Ukraine has spent all winter preparing their next defensive lines.
