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About Tomorrow's Podcast - You Control the Show
🕑 Added 2023-02-26 00:05:27 +0000 UTCTomorrow's podcast will be a year in review. The focus will be the ten biggest failures of the Russian military from February 24, 2022, to February 23, 2023. While a similar list for Ukraine is harder to fill (there are fewer choices, but you can make a list of ten), the Russian list has many more choices.
Our picks, in what is "my order" are:
10) Drone attack on Engel-2 Airbase - while the strike only destroyed 2 aircraft and maybe damaged 1 to 3 more, the psychological impact for Russia was significant. It exposed major weaknesses in Russian air defenses, was a strike against General of the Army Sergey Surovikin, who was the commander of the Russian air force and air defenses until October 8, 2022, and forced Russia to stop using Engel-2 as a base of operations for strategic bombers.
9) Failed offensive at Vuhledar - from January 24, 2023, to February 23, 2023, Russia lost over 100 armored vehicles and the 155th and 40th Naval Infantry Brigades, along with the 11th (formerly 6th) Brigade of the 1st Army Corps, combat destroyed. On February 23, 2023, Russia had been pushed out of the dachas and lost control of northern Pavlivka.
8) Battle for Nevelske - just a speck on the map, Nevelske has been under almost constant ground attacks since August 8, 2022. There are no videos or pictures from inside the isolated Ukrainian firebase that is surrounded by beet fields. However, the location has provided a ground line of communication (GLOC) to protect the southern flank of Pervomaiske, which the 1st Army Corps has never been able to take fire control of. The ratio of losses, Ukrainian to Russian, is unknown, but after seven months of attempted advances, the DNR has only provided sunflower fertilizer in the fields surrounding the remote location.
7) Kerch Straight Bridge bombing - it is important to note Ukraine has never officially claimed responsibility for the October 8 explosion. They've hinted it, some politicians have said, but the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has never stood in front of the cameras and said, "we did this," and this is how we did it. Russia claimed in the hours after the attack that the damage wasn't major. On February 23, 2023, the first highway span had been mostly repaired, and the second span was opened symbolically for a single day. The rail section has only had 16 "light trains" pass, which includes the removal of the damaged railcars and repair equipment for the section. Repairs aren't expected to be done per the Kremlin until late summer 2023. Further, the highway sections are only open to car and bus traffic - no heavy trucks - which calls into question the quality of the repairs done.
6) Sinking of the Moskva - this was a morale-boosting and strategic strike for Ukraine. The heavy missile cruiser Moskva was the flagship of the Black Sea Fleet, and it had one job - to provide antiaircraft and antiship defense for the rest of the fleet. The Moskva was not capable of launching Kalibr cruise missiles. Its sinking forced the withdrawal of Black Sea ships from the Ukrainian coast, opening up the liberation of Snake Island and providing Ukrainian air defenses and civilians with precious minutes to respond to Kalibr missile attacks.
5) Kherson retreat - it is widely believed that General Surovikin cut a deal with Shoigu and Putin. Admit defeat west of the Dnipro, retreat to preserve force strength, and capture Bakhmut and Soledar before New Year's. The withdrawal was vital for one critical reason, Russia could no longer apply pressure on Mykolaiv or Odesa due to the Dnipro River, and it was a political defeat for the Kremlin, which fueled the Prigozhin does it better narrative.
4) Bilohorivka wet crossings - between May 8 and May 12, an entire battalion tactical group destroyed - not combat destroyed - destroyed. Two more combat was destroyed, and an entire brigade was eliminated. Some of the most experienced combat engineers in the Russian military and their commanders - dead. Three failed river crossings, two in Bilohorivka and a third at Serebrianka. It was a crushing defeat that altered the entire battle for Severodonetsk. Instead of a pincer from Popasana, captured on May 8, Russian General Lapin was forced to use massive amounts of artillery and the bulk of the LNR, DNR, and Chechen Akhmat over almost two more months of intense fighting. Bilohorivka was fully captured, with the western edge remaining a gray zone for two weeks in July, and the Russian army was combat destroyed, forcing the September partial mobilization order.
3) Kyiv retreat - it was a bad plan, and it was terribly executed. On February 26, when it became clear that the world underestimated Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the problems with Russia's strategy were starting to be exposed, Kyiv will fall in 3 to 10 days wasn't so clear. Russia's advance and territorial control peaked on March 25, 2022. On February 23, 2022, Russia had given back 50% of the territory it had captured 11 months earlier. The Russian army was exposed as a paper tiger. Its equipment was proven to be inferior, and a decade of reshaping the Russian army around Battalion Tactical Groups was a failure. If we had to pick the biggest failure, it was the decision to bypass Chernihiv. That decision meant Russia never established a secure Ground Line of Communication (GLOC - supply line) to Kyiv to set up a logistical base of operations.
2) Battle of Voznesensk - a small city near the South Ukraine Nuclear Power Plant and at a key river crossing of the South Buh River. On March 1, Russian paratroopers and elite forces broke off their attack on Mykolaiv and rushed 120 kilometers to the north to capture the bridge and occupy SUNPP. The only thing between the force of 400 to 500 of some of the best forces in the Russian military? A small band of lightly armed territorial guards and local villagers. By March 4, Ukraine had destroyed the bridge and protected the nuclear power plant. Fifteen Russian tanks were destroyed, 15 more were captured, and 100 Russian troops were dead. Russian forces retreated 64 kilometers to the south to regroup. Ukraine lost a handful of territorial guards and 14 civilians, some killed when retreating Russian troops sacked the village of Rakove.
1) Kharkiv counteroffensive - it was the most decisive armored victory since 1991. In the span of ten days, Ukraine liberated over 400 cities, towns, and villages, recaptured over 6,000 square kilometers of territory and forced Russian troops to the east bank of the Oskil River. Enough Russian military hardware was captured to support the formation of three new brigades. In the chaos of the retreat, Russian air assets fired on their own retreating troops, and extensive documentation of future battle plans and war crimes was left behind. Additionally, Ukraine proved to the world they were capable of multi-brigade combined arms warfare.
Now you know our team's picks, why, and my order. What about you? Of these ten, which one is your number one? The order for tomorrow's podcast will be based on your votes.
Comments
AnaR737
Thank you for the schadenfreude. It makes you wonder how Mr Shoigu remains at the head of the Russian MOD...
Poll is closed - thank you!
Heroic defense of Sumy and Chernihiv
The occupation of Chornobyl/digging trenches in the Red Forest deserves an honorable mention ☢️
Jeffrey Price
I wish we could rank them
Wow, I didn't realize what a horrible year Russia had until you listed them. One miserable embarrassment after another. I think a report on the impact of partisan activities in occupied Ukraine would be very interesting. We get mentions occasionally in reports but getting their stories pulled together and the stories of others we have not heard about would be great. It would have been so much easier for these men and women, many who were shop keepers, housewives, teachers with no military training, to cooperate but instead they risk everything for their people's independence. It would be a shame if their sacrifice was forgotten. Slava Ukraine
Scott
Russia's mobilization efforts
Scott
I second this!
Högni Gylfason
The anemic local drone defense, leading to the loss of hundreds or thousands of green men. Runner up: OPSEC as per @Justin Wilhelm, and honorable mention: SEAD and general failure to secure even local control of airspace. Systemic failures in these fields led to the current situation, even if they may have helped cause some of the listed individual events (Moskva, Kherson, Kyiv retreat, etc).
Makes sense to go chronologically! Excited for the podcast!
AnaR737
To me the march on Kyiv felt doomed from the beginning. When I realized that the Russian air force was not fully in play I found the whole thing pointless and horrifying even before we learned about Bucha. By the time they turned back from Kyiv and amassed all that firepower in the Donbas I was deep into the Ukraine rabbit hole and terrified all the time watching that red blob grow on the map. To me, the Kharkiv counteroffensive was such a brilliant, brilliant move that I am still trying to understand how they pulled it off. I wish I could learn more about how the Russian intelligence could fail so spectacularly. At first I doubted it was truly happening the way it was being reported and the search for corroboration lead me to this podcast. I vote for Kharkiv counteroffensive.
Russian mobilisation and the equally decrepit state of their materiel reserves.
