TheMalcontent
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Russia-Ukraine Flash Report 05 MAR 2023 14:00 PST - Bakhmut Holds
🕑 Added 2023-03-05 22:04:25 +0000 UTCNo changes in Bakhmut and reports that the T-506 Ground Line of Communication (GLOC) is severed are untrue. It's definitely spicy but still usable. There have been no appreciable changes in territorial control.
Is it because Ukraine keeps bringing in fresh troops?
Is it because Russia is exhausting its combat potential?
Is it because mud is slowing down offensive operations?
Is it because Russia is in an operational pause to consolidate a new offensive push?
Is it because Russia has recently found a copy of Sun Tzu's Art of War and read the part about leaving a golden bridge for your enemy?
Is it because of Russian ammunition shortages?
Is it because Ukraine has figured out how to counter Russia's shift in tactics from armor-heavy assaults of a platoon or company size to wave after wave of light infantry squad attacks?
That's why you're Patreons, and that's what we're trying to figure out.
Ukraine is continuing to rotate troops, but there are no signs that the number of troops within Bakhmut (estimated at 5K) has increased.
There are indications that Russia is exhausting its combat potential but no proof and too many variables.
Mud doesn't care if you're Russian or Ukrainian - it's mud.
Is Russia in an operational pause? There is a strong possibility this is the situation. Going back to May 2022 and the push on Popasna, Hirske-Zolote, Severodonetsk, and Lysychansk, we saw the cycle of a big push with high casualties to gain 500 to 1500 meters, a two or three-day pause, repeat. However, we have also seen Russia abandon this strategy in 2023.
Sun Tzu wrote to leave a golden bridge for your enemy (a way to retreat). He also wrote that if you plan to storm a fortress, be prepared to suffer heavy losses. PMC Wagner's Prigozhin language indicates he is pointing to the golden bridge of the T-506 Highway because he would rather not suffer heavy losses. Is that because he suddenly cares about penal units, or is it because he's running out of mercenaries?
Russian artillery around Bakhmut has increased, while complaints of ammunition shortages are spreading across almost all other axes. The other exception is Zaporizhia, where Russian artillery activity has increased but not to a level of setting conditions. Ammunition problems are relative, with Russia still able to fire 20K shells a day theaterwide. To set a benchmark, when Russia was attacking Pisky in August, they were launching 6,000 shells a day - at Pisky. When they were attacking Severodonetsk in June, they were firing up to 40,000 shells - at Severodonetsk and the surrounding villages. Russia is able to fire 2X to 4X the shells Ukraine can, but the improved accuracy and lethality of the NATO-provided systems equalize the imbalance.
Has Ukraine figured out how to counter Russia's light infantry swarm attacks? In some cases, yes, and this could be a factor. Ukrainian junior officers are reporting that military units with flexible senior commanders that apply NATO command structure are able to overcome, adapt, and improvise. Units with more rigid thinking, "you must defend this trench," not so much. It is hard to change 30 years of thinking and even harder to do a military-wide purge when you still need experienced commanders.
The situation remains very fluid and could change quickly. As we saw in Lysychansk. There are no indications that Russia's goals have changed, and they will continue to attack Bakhmut at all costs.
Comments
Abrams may not hit the field till next year, Ukraine is getting new builds (export model, not as fancy as what US Army gets) instead of existing stock.
Thank you for making me laugh while providing realistic analysis.
Think the next week should be very interesting. No one but the ukraine's MOD knows Ukraines actual numbers of reserves but they really should be sizeable. Just looking at armor, not only have they received a huge number of Bradley ifvs which should have arrived in February but also german marders , French ifvs and tank destroyers which should also be in country. Don't forget those 90 T-72s donated by various NATO countries in November which the USA and Netherlands paid the Czech republic to modernize. Those 90 tanks should be finishing up right about now. In addition there was all the abandoned russian armor from Ukraine's previous offensive which they recovered and should be updated and refurbished by this point. Not counting the modern leopards and Abrams which may or may not be there yet, their armor alone should be extremely formidable
Thank you. Too many questions…🥴😊
Possible - but we have not received direct council to start using "bezhdorizhzhia." It was an editorial decision.
Heartbreak Ridge. Pops did two tours with 511th PIR then 187th (ACRT) in Korea. Tough fighting ahead.
WthinWthout
Yeah, I know that. Maybe I should have reworked my question before posting. I was wondering if the language has changed after a year of full scale war. I know a lot of Ukrainians have turned away from russian, but that russian is still the native language of a lot of Ukrainians.
Interchangeable - but bezhdorizhzhia is the Ukrainian word for "roadlessness"
WthinWthout
My brain just realized that it's back to mud season again. Is it bezhdorizhzhia commonly in Ukraine or is it more known as rasputitsa?
