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Russia-Ukraine Flash Report 20 APR 2023 14:30 PDT - Russian VKS Bombs Belgorod By Accident
🕑 Added 2023-04-20 21:37:44 +0000 UTCConsider some of this a hot take, so first, the truth, because the truth matters.
A massive explosion rocketed the Russian city of Belgorod, carving a huge crater near the city center that miraculously landed in the middle of a wide avenue. There was no air raid alert at the time of the incident, and air defense in the Belgorod area was not active.
Shockingly, the Russian Ministry of Defense confirmed that a FAB-500S-E GLONASS-guided glide bomb has an anomaly and crashed into Belgorod. No deaths have been reported, and it is unclear if there are injuries. We will likely not hear about any minor to moderate causalities from flying debris and glass. We know from the many incidents in Ukraine that these create a significant concussion, and exploding in the middle of an urban environment has likely broken a lot of windows with violent force.
Hot takes.
Two thoughts. This might partially explain the more than statistically significant number of Russian glide bombs that are landing in empty fields. The failure rates appear to be more than 1 or 2 percent. Ukrainian officials in Kherson earlier in the month said the bombs landing in open fields was an attempt to disrupt planting season, which we had assessed was very unlikely. The reason we dismissed that claim is there is almost no planting season in free Kherson, which is only 10% demined.
Second thought. This highlights the lack of discipline, planning, and professionalism within the Russian military. The FAB-500S-E bombs can be delivered by Su-34 and Su-35 aircraft that can stand off as far as 70 kilometers from their target. That means that the Russian VKS has a near-infinite number of points where they can launch the bomb for its glide path. You would think that Russian military planners and commanders would account for avoiding their own, populated areas for this very reason.
The fact the bomb landed in the street and not on a building likely made it extremely difficult to create a narrative that this was a Ukrainian strike. If any bits of the Russian glide system were found at the site, given this is unique to the VKS arsenal, it would become undeniable. Additionally, the Russian civilian population on the Ukrainian border is growing increasingly frustrated with local, oblast, and national officials for repeated and continued lies.
A functional military would do a short stand down to review procedures, and the careers of whoever decided how the sortie would be executed would be over. There would be an engineering review of the failure and a shift in target packages and prioritizations until the "why" is figured out. In a functional military.
Final hot take, given the failure rate, it is only a matter of time before Ukraine gets its hands on a semi-intact FAB-500S-E with damage limited to the force of impact when it hit the ground.
Aberdeen and Langley will be very interested.
Comments
Dear Editor, please don’t give Russia detailed tips on how to run an effective military. Even they can learn, eventually. Why make it easier? (I’m only half-joking.)
It should not upset any allies of Ukraine. These planes are legitimate military targets in self-defence against an illegal war of aggression, and to protect civilian population. Besides, Ukraine has already blown up a nuclear-capable Russian strategic bomber that was on the ground (not in a bombing run), and even deeper inside Russia. WW3 did not ensue. So why worry about regular Russian war planes carrying bombs close to the border? The excessive squeamishness of allies and long delays in providing needed weapons are costing Ukrainian lives. Let’s help them to actually win!
WthinWthout
Ope.
The second. They attempted to shoot a target in Ukraine and accidentally bombed one of their own cities.
WthinWthout
Can someone explain this in simple terms? They attempted a false flag and failed due to equipment crappiness? Or they attempted to hit Ukrainian territory and had crappy equipment? Sorry, I'm tired and confused.
Graham Thom
I'm speechless. There aren't words to describe this FUBAR. One has to assume that FUBAR is the natural state of the Russian military. Wow!
Are planes 70km from border considered legitimate targets from Ukraine allies point of view? Like, if Ukraine would to shoot down planes carrying strikes in this region do you think it would upset US or EU administrations?
They need to watch the movie “hidden figures.”
