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Russia-Ukraine Flash Report 23 APR 2023 17:15 PDT - Updated on Kherson
🕑 Added 2023-04-24 00:38:30 +0000 UTCWe're halfway there. We can edit the map internally, and analysts have access again, but public access is still not resolved. The good news is we can do a full report with maps. However, there will not be links to exact locations until we know it's fixed. Thank you for your patience.
We know more about what is going on here but need to respect operational security. So here is a summary of what is available in the public domain, so you don't have to go look for it and connect the dots.
Ukrainian forces were filmed by Russian forces landing at Dachi during the daytime on April 18.
ASSESSMENT: Earlier attempts to probe Russian defenses were met with a furious response by Russian airborne (VDV) forces, artillery, and armor. During January and February, there were skirmishes on Big Potemkin Island and mutual mortar attacks. Both combatants made claims of sinking boats with sabotage and reconnaissance teams (DRG).
On January 24, 2023, Yaroslav Yanushevych, the Kherson Oblast Administrative and Military Governor (OVA), was dismissed. While he was governor, detailed information about shelling on free Kherson and occupied Kherson was readily available.
On February 7, 2023, Oleksandr Prokudin was named the new Kherson OVA. One of their first orders was a significant tightening of operational security. Reports on attacks and their impact were banned. Dash cams were also banned. Sometime in March, and outside of our visibility, they also cracked down on reports about attacks on the east bank. The decisions in February made sense, and we concluded this was only enforcing existing Ukrainian law that Yanushevych appeared to have been ignoring. It was around the same time that Prokudin became governor that there were no more reports of HIMARS strikes east of the Dnipro River, Russian troop movements, etc. Everything got very quiet.
If Ukrainian forces can move in clear weather and daylight conditions across the Dnipro and make an uncontested landing, this is what we've learned.
There isn't a rapid response force anymore on the eastern bank of Kherson. If there were, this wouldn't be happening. There is an ammunition shortage on the Russian side, and this is likely one of the reasons that the heavy shelling of Kherson, the city itself, has ended. Ukrainian forces have likely had a permanent presence in the marshes around Dachi and Dachy for weeks if not months. The establishment of a permanent position south of the Konka River on the edge of Oleshky further reinforces that there are troop, armor, and ammunition shortages.
We know what you're looking for next. Is this the start of something bigger? I think you know our answer. OPSEC. Our team does have an opinion, but we cannot share it. But, this also is an indication of operational readiness by Russian forces in this entire area, and it does appear to be weak. It also explains the weeks of reports that Russian forces have been shelling Oleshky. With Ukrainian forces confirmed at the Chalka River, there is almost no margin for error if Russian forces were requesting firing missions north of Provulok Street.
One thing is for sure, this is part of the shaping activity and setting conditions for the coming Ukrainian offensive.
One other note, this is the first arrow we've placed on the map to indicate fighting in a new area in a month to the day.
