TheMalcontent
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Russia-Ukraine Flash Report 09 MAY 2023 12:00 PDT - Did the Russian 72nd Brigade Flee Bakhmut?
🕑 Added 2023-05-09 19:07:46 +0000 UTCYes.
We were very skeptical of Prigozhin's claim, but the Ukrainian Armed Forces confirmed the report with videos we geolocated. What we've learned shines new light on what the real situation is.
Ukrainian forces not only pushed Russian troops to the canal (which we had previously assessed), they made a successful contested wet crossing of the Siverskyi Donets-Donbass Canal and reestablished positions 2.5 kilometers from Klishchiivka on the east bank.
We have not been able to find evidence of larger Ukrainian gains near Yasyukivka and Sil on the northern flank, but there is a lot of chatter.
While these are small gains, it is clearer why Prigozhin is so concerned about the protection of the flanks. We had assessed weeks ago that Russian forces were not up to the task and weren't maintaining the same level of pressure that PMC Wagner did when they operated in these areas. We now have proof from Russian and Ukrainian sources.
This explains the repeated attacks the Ukrainian General Staff has been reporting in the direction of Predtechyne this week. These attacks are Russian forces trying to eliminate the Ukrainian bridgehead and retake the lost positions. Prigozhin is right, this was a critical area to hold on to because if Ukraine wants to do something more, the wet crossing is established, and Russia doesn't have the key component you need to smash a contested wet crossing.
Artillery shells.
We cannot assess what the end game will be, but Prigozhin wants out, and it's understandable now. Ultimately our assessment is unchanged from the previous weeks. Russia has a semi-false ammunition shortage. By modern warfare standards, they have plenty of ammunition, but their military tactics are still stuck in 1945.
We had assessed on May 6, when Prigozhin sent his ultimatum that he would leave by May 10 without more ammo, that it was impossible for the Russian Federation Armed Forces to meet the demand because logistics can't move that fast. Logistics wouldn't be able to move that fast for a competent military. The current situation is not a surprise.
In closing, if Prigozhin is expecting 6K shells a day, 10K, 32K, or his original ask of 80K - it will never happen.
One other point, we provided an assessment several weeks ago comparing the number of artillery shells fired on Pisky in August 2022 versus Bakhmut and what it would take to match that rate of fire.
Russia was firing 6,000 shells a day, just on Pisky, a village that is only 3 square kilometers in size. If you matched the rate of fire to Bakhmut, at 41.6 square kilometers?
83,200 shells a day.
Within spitting distance of Prigozhin's original ask.
The Russian Ministry of Defense won't let Wagner leave because if they do, they will have to backfill those ranks with the limited reserve force in place to hold back a looming Ukrainian offensive.
Comments
Where exactly is the Siverskyi Donets-Donbass Canal? I wish there would be links to Google maps in the flashes too π
He'll never get what he needs
I agree. I thought the same thing about prigozhin. He has to be looking at the failure in Bakhmut as sitting squarely on his shoulders and he must be anxious to deflect the blame. After all the brutality that Russia inflicted on ukraine I don't feel the slightest sympathy for what is about to befall them
AnaR737
The whole drama then looks like a last ditch attempt to prevent the loss of all that Prigozhin worked for in Bakhmut. If he can't get what he needs, he wants out and for someone else to deal with the fallout. The guy is not a philosopher but he is certainly faced with a dilemma, and so is the Russian army. And although Bakhmut itself is just a focal point, what happens there is certainly going to have repercussions in the whole theater. Why am I not sorry for them....I have been waiting for the reckoning for so long. Keep it coming.
If Ukraine has chosen to cross the canal, exposing themselves rather than defending a very defensible position - is that not a pretty ballsy statement? Are the 'gods of war' nearby and feeling bored?
Luke
It was pretty clear that if nothing had changed, Zemenskyy's famous 'Bakhmut will not fall' speak wouldn't have looked very good in hindsight. Even though it was quite clearly a propaganda stance to keep morale and stop Ukrainians from revolting at the idea of 1000s of their people being killed for a city they always were going to give, it's easier to feed the 'steadfast heroic defence' to a general population that a 'slow planned strategic retreat so that we can kill more of them then they can of us etc'. But, all of that may be moot as Zelenskyy could find himself accidentally right! There's a lot of serendipitous timing playing into Ukraine's hands here: Prigozhin's latest (and somewhat arguably understandable) tantrum and ultimatum; which remains to be seen if he does call the bluff and leave. The wider Wagner manpower woes. Russian regular forces on the flanks letting down Wagner's efforts in the city and causing them to lose significant hard fought ground. Well equipped, well trained and fresh Ukrainian forces arriving in the area as part of the expected Offensive. And the wider Offensive itself on the horizon (hopefully) all adds up to Ukraine potentially managing to hold onto Bakhmut after all as Russia will absolutely have to start directing resources away from the city, wherever that may be. Here's hoping anyway. I have tentative hopes.
