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Russia-Ukraine Flash Report 05 JUN 2023 19:45 PDT - Nova Kakhovka Dam Destroyed
🕑 Added 2023-06-06 02:44:21 +0000 UTCOvernight, the Nova Kakhovka Dam on the Dnipro River has completely destroyed. This level of damage could not have been accomplished by a missile strike but would have been done by massive amounts of explosives within the service tunnels and shafts within the dam.
This is a major crisis with the uncontrolled loss of control over the level of the Kakhovka Reservoir.
Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant
The ability to access cooling water for the six reactors at the Zaporizhzia Nuclear Power Plant will become compromised as the Kakhovka Reservoir drains away. Even in cold shutdown, the reactors require cooling water to maintain safe operation. This will not be possible in an unknown timeline and at the start of Ukraine's dry season. This is one of the most urgent issues. Expect a furious response from the International Atomic Energy Agency and the United Nations.
Drinking Water for Millions of People
Up to three million people in free and occupied Ukraine will lose access to drinking water as the reservoir drains away. There won't be an easy fix to this unless Ukraine can push Russian forces further away from the banks of the Dnipro.
The End of Water to the Crimean Canal
As the water level drops, the minimum level to maintain water flow into the Crimean Canal will likely not be met, cutting off irrigation and drinking water to occupied Crimea.
Downstream Flooding in Kherson to the mouth of the Dnipro
The bigger impact will be on the east bank in Russian-occupied territories, which sits on lower ground, but there will be downstream flooding on both sides of the Dnipro. At the time of publication, there has not been an emergency declaration by Russian or Ukrainian officials for evacuations.
Could the Video be Fake
Anything is possible, and if this is fake, this is Industrial Lights and Magic, A budget movie grade good CGI with attention to every possible detail.
Who did it and Why
Given the level of destruction to the dam, it is highly unlikely Ukraine did this with Russian forces maintaining occupation of the hydroelectric power plant. This was a massive demolition. The only logical conclusion is this was done as a defensive measure to prevent a Ukrainian wet crossing of the Dnipro in the short term and to prevent Ukraine from using the dam as a hard crossing into occupied Kherson.
Comments
We are reassessing this analysis. There is strong disagreement in our team, but the consensus is the dam was sabotaged by mines.
The pics we refer to from Maxar and in the SITREP - a video showing the dam after collapse won't be showing progressive damage before the collapse
BBC claims that the “First satellite image of damaged dam” shows the full breach - no mention of images of earlier deterioration: see https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-65816109?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=647f185bc408bd3c18cbb7a6%26First%20satellite%20image%20of%20damaged%20dam%262023-06-06T11%3A36%3A02.236Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:aa038a30-9255-4be7-a346-b4cfae80a4ee&pinned_post_asset_id=647f185bc408bd3c18cbb7a6&pinned_post_type=share “This image, acquired at 09:00 BST today and analysed by BBC Verify, shows extensive damage to the central part of the dam and to a section of the hydropower plant building on the east bank of the Dnipro River.” If your analysis is confirmed, you would be many hours ahead of them!
Just provide Ukraine the weapons needed to eliminate the Russians in Ukraine
How many time do web have before there is Risk of meltdown in zaporinha
In the video I watched. There seems to be a blip on the right hand side, just before detonation. My friends and I are torn on what it is. Some suggest missle, while it looks to be detcord that has been attached to a guide wire to me, and we all agree that it could just be simply a bird or camera artifact. Has anyone else noticed it?
Graham Thom
How much more critical infrastructure needs to be destroyed before the west gives Ukraine the long distance munitions needed to reduce the Russian military to total collapse. The time came long ago, no more dithering and hand wringing. Crimea is the goal. Time to flood Ukraine with long range weapon systems so they can wipe out all command and control installations as well as large troop concentrations. It's time to state the West's intention to assist the Ukrainians to WIN the war now not in drips and drabs and months of haggling over which weapons they'll send. If the west is all in as they claim, then do it and stop screwing around. We're on the cusp of another nuclear meltdown similar if not worse than Chernobyl which will affect all of Europe if not the world.
Growing evidence that the dam suffered a catastrophic structural failure. Maxar images from May 28 and June 5 show progressive damage (beyond the bridge collapse) in the area that collapsed.
A major catastrophe…if ZNPP melts down I have to believe the NATO redline has been crossed…
AnaR737
It is true. The news is showing up now. Truly catastrophic.
I am in Zapporizhizhia on assignment, I'll try to dig out some information
