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Russia-Ukraine Flash Report 25 MAY 2023 14:30 PDT - Ivan Khurs, Valerii Zaluzhnyi, Konstantin Dolgov, Bakhmut, Berdyansk, Belgorod, and War Crimes
🕑 Added 2023-05-25 21:36:10 +0000 UTCIt's a very busy day!
Ivan Khurs
In the May 24, 2023 Situation Report, we linked to a Russian Ministry of Defense video showing the Russian surveillance ship Ivan Khurs being attacked by three surface drones. The video showed two drones intercepted with the claim the ship was undamaged. Our team accepted this at face value.
The Ivan Khurs is missing, and it has not shown up at any Russian port (we have good intel in Sevastopol, as long-time readers/listeners know). A United States MQ-4 Reaper has shown a lot of interest in the last known area of the spy ship.
Russia showed two drones being destroyed, not three. Ukraine has released a video showing that 📺 a third drone struck the Ivan Khurs, and the vessel in the video is unquestionably the Russian spy ship, hit aft on the port side. There is no way to know if the drone detonated or what damage was caused.
We're monitoring the story, but officially, we've been told nothing, and if our contact reaches out, you'll be the second group of people to know because we have 100% trust in their information. We are very cautious on ship attack claims as they tend to be exaggerated by Pro-Ukrainian sources (historically speaking).
Another concern, the Russian information space is churning a lot of disinformation that the Ivan Cole is heavily damaged, and pictures of the USS Cole is already circulating misattributed to the Ivan Khurs. Practice safe Internet.
Valerii Zaluzhnyi
Ukrainian commander in chief of the armed forces 📺 Valerii Zaluzhnyi is very much alive, well, and doing his job. Moving on.
Konstantin Dolgov
Dolgov is the journalist who did a one-hour 17-minute interview with Private Military Company (PMC) Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin where the mercenary leader did his usual act of attacking Shoigu and Gerasimov, suggesting Russians will engage in armed revolution if the Kremlin isn't honest, and inflating the value of PMC Wagner. Dolgov has been fired because an already restricted press doing their job is too scary for the Kremlin. Prigozhin, on the other hand, is drinking sparkling wine in Bakhmut and counting gold bars coming out of Sudan.
Bakhmut
PMC Wagner forces are withdrawing from Bakhmut, and Prigozhin has claimed 📺 he is leaving two of his commanders behind as liaisons and to monitor the situation. Before you start typing in the comments, "But are they really leaving or is this a feint," yes, Ukrainian and Russian sources all say PMC Wagner is withdrawing. They're combat destroyed, and Prigozhin wants out. Africa is far more profitable. That isn't to say that PMC Wagner units won't appear again in the future, but I expect the businessman to be far more careful when he signs his next contract with the Kremlin.
Here is 📺 some dystopia from Russian state media.
Berdyansk
There was a major Storm Shadow cruise missile strike on Berdyansk with significant fire. Just as we don't run with Russian claims of large ammunition depots with troops and arms destroyed, we're waiting for more evidence to see what was hit. The videos that are available right now are very short but do support claims of fuel storage hit at the minimum. Links will be in the SITREP if they are authenticated.
Belgorod
The Free Russia Legion (FPL) crossed the border again into Belgorod but appeared to only demonstrate how porous the border remains even after their incursion earlier this week. The Russian Ministry of Defense released a "See how good we are at war" video that shows anything but how good they are at war. A 📺 Su-34 aircraft is used for a close air support (CAS) mission and drops two balutte-assisted bombs near tree top level. Both bombs miss their target, and the aircraft appears to bank just before the bombs are released, guaranteeing a lack of accuracy. The bigger question is why was a Su-34 being used for a CAS mission and dropping non-precision weapons. The other thing is the video adds additional proof that the vehicles that were photographed by the Russian MOD as "destroyed" in the raid were staged.
War Crime
In Karlovka, a Russian strike 📺 destroyed the Karlakova Dam, with the reservoir already swollen from a very wet late spring and ongoing heavy thunderstorms. After World War II, the Geneva Convention was updated with specific sections on targeting dams. A defender can destroy their own dams, but an attacking belligerent commits a war crime if they destroy a dam. It is (no pun intended) that cut and dry. As with other strikes by Russian forces on dams (just as in Dnipropetrovsk last fall), it is unlikely to slow Ukrainian efforts, and the roadway across the dam appears easily repaired. Significant flooding is reported downstream.
