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Russia-Ukraine Flash Report 19 JUN 2023 14:55 PDT - Russia Learns from Syrian Terrorists - VBIED Check
🕑 Added 2023-06-19 21:54:39 +0000 UTCIn the last 48 hours, Russian forces have launched four Vehicle Borne Improvised Explosive Devices (VBIED) at Ukrainian positions. Toward the end of the Russian winter offensive, there were two VBIED attacks in the Kreminna Operational Area. This appears to be an escalation of the tactic.
A vehicle is filled with explosives and driven to a target either remotely, by dumb means such as a brick on the gas pedal, guided by a driver who evacuates at the last minute, or a suicide attack. Of the four incidents, two appear to have used dumb means, and in the other two, the drivers jumped out.
Russian troops used a T-54/T-55 tank, what appeared to be a damaged Ukrainian tank, and two MT-LBs. It is unknown what explosives were packed into these vehicles, but in Kreminna, Russian troops used TM-62 antitank landmines. They're cheap, plentiful, and stable without their detonators.
VBIED is used when a combatant is fighting an asymmetrical war. They lack the heavy weapons, aircraft, or armor to effectively engage their enemy. For what was believed to be the second most powerful military on the planet before February 24, 2022, this is an unusual tactic that points to a certain degree of desperation. At least at the company level, Russian commanders believe they are fighting an asymmetrical war and employing tactics used against their forces in Syria and Chechnya. It also points to the frustration of a frozen front, with two VBIED attacks near Pobjeda/Novomykailivka. The Donetsk People's Republic Militia > 1st Army Corps of the Donetsk People's Republic > Russian Federation 1st Army Corps has not been able to advance in this area for nine years and has repeatedly attacked Novomykhailivka since February 2022 with no success.
It is unclear how effective these attacks are, and historically Ukraine has not eagerly provided bomb/battle damage assessment (BDA) in the public information space. So far, these attacks appear to only be designed to cause casualties and have not been followed with ground attacks. Additionally, the attacks have been a single vehicle. More purposeful attacks would use two VBIEDs, one to cause a breach and disorientation and the second to hit the target.
We've covered how Russian artillery ammunition shortages are artificial and more related to their military doctrine. Unable to meet the needs of commanders who use Y shells X sq km = how many rounds to fire a day, the spike in VBIED attacks appears to be the temporary answer to a lack of fire support and the shrinking role of close air support (CAS) on the 21st Century battlefield.
The challenge for Ukrainian defenders is striking an armored vehicle carrying tons of landmines to prevent it from crashing into their defensive position still creates a massive explosion - as this video shows. Well-constructed reinforced trenches should be sufficient to protect from severe blast injuries if the VBIED is intercepted at an adequate range. Any Ukrainian ATGM crew that is exposed while firing on a VBIED vehicle is at extreme risk.
While these types of attacks appear to be expanding, if the success rate is low, the loss of vehicles and the mass consumption of mines will likely cause an end to the tactic. It is unfathomable to believe that Russian forces will start suicide attacks with VBIEDs, and if that were to happen, historically, it is a sign of a combatant that has exhausted its combat resources.
Militaries are always working on swords versus shields. Tactics to deal with VBIED attacks and how to build defenses that prevent them are well-established and not military secrets. One thing to expect to see is the open caches of TM-62 landmines that Russian forces leave exposed will become priority targets for drones.
Closing thought. If you had said in June 2022 that Russia would be employing VBIED attacks on well-entrenched, heavily armed Ukrainian positions because Russia lacks the artillery ammunition to support its doctrine, it would have been incredibly hard to believe.
Comments
Yes! The leave big piles of them laying around - we'll share a link tomorrow
Fixed - auto spelling correction makes for some fun typos from type to time and I appreciate you defending the truth
The newsflash referenced “ One thing to expect to see is the open caches of TM-62 landmines that Russian forces leave exposed will become priority targets for drones.” Does this mean Russia leaves these mines out in the open un-hidden and vulnerable to drone attacks? This is a common practice of theirs?!
One small detail, it’s Improvised Explosive Device (not Improved). Also I guess we can only judge whether it’s a “desperate” action based on its effectiveness. The RMoD apparently showed video of one of these VBIED attacks and claimed it destroyed an enemy position. The claim seems dubious. Mick Ryan (retired major general in the Australian Army) described this Russian tactic as an “adaptation” and wasn’t dismissive of it. He wrote a Substack referencing it https://open.substack.com/pub/mickryan/p/ukraine-and-the-rise-of-robotic-ground?r=26v1qy&utm_medium=ios&utm_campaign=post
It's a fair question - we've dove into this in earlier situation reports. Russian can fire 25K to 30K shells a day compared to 4K to; if Ukraine really stretches it, maybe 10K. However, Russian military doctrine would have their consumption around 80K a day. 30K a day would be more than sufficient with Western-style military doctrine/tactics. For Soviet/Post-Soviet, it's a 60% to 70% shortage because Russian artillery is meant to flatten an area (number of shells per square km) while Western doctrine is we need this number of shells to hit these specific targets. So Russian commanders scream they have a 60%, 70%, 80% shortfall in ammunition, which is true, but a military not fighting like it is 1952 would be able to make good use of the supply they have.
“Artificial” in that it is the perception of Russian troops that they have a shortage. If Russian troops feel they need 80,000 rounds a day (because of their doctrine) but only get 20,000 rounds a day it’s not a true shortage. They just are very inefficient with their artillery compared to NATO countries.
What a terrifyingly great sign of Moscovia's struggle.
WthinWthout
Pardon me if this is a dumb question, I'm very tired and waiting for the pharmacy to fill my ADHD meds so I can be a real person, but what is with the artificial shortages? If there is a decent amount of ammo being reserved, what would it be for? By artificial, do you mean because they keep having smoking accidents? I'm confused by the artificial part. Like, is ruzzia refusing to share their pew pew fuel with the military "just in case"?
