Russian Civil War/Coup/Insurrection Over Flash Report and Live - June 23, 2023 16:25 PDT

Great response and insight, as always. Deeply appreciated. All that exists right now is speculation. One day, historians will document what really happened, but likely not in my lifetime. The analysts and I believe that Prigozhin had a network with in multiple government structures. Speaking personally, new theories can become bright shiny objects, especially when you're trying to make sense of a senseless situation. One theory I recently read is that on the morning of June 24, when Prigozhin's "March for Justice," as he called it, was turning into a full-blown coup, it didn't align with his ambitions. It was becoming bigger than him when it started to become clear that the only thing between Moscow and a brigade-sized column of Wagnerites was a disorganized group of FSB, Rosgvardia, OMON/SOBR, Ministry of Internal Affairs, Ministry of Transportation workers tearing up roads, and Putin's closest guard. None of those groups seemed particularly interested in fighting Wagner. Russian citizens weren't staying in their houses; they were welcoming the new metaphorical Tzar. He didn't want that, so he blinked. It's an interesting theory, but only a theory. I agree that Prigozhin is leaving to go into exile, and based on Putin's track record, he's a doorknob covered in radioactive isotopes or nerve gas or a cup of tea away from joining the choir invisible. Putin does not forgive traitors. I think there is a bigger chance of Prigozhin leading the Belarusian Army on a march toward Moscow in the future than taking leftover Wagnerites and throwing themselves into a meatgrinder on a march toward Kyiv or, more strategically, Rivne or Lutsk. Defender's bonus, 8,000 Ukrainian troops will hold back 25,000 Wagnerites. Prigozhin knows that. While I say there is a "bigger chance," I will add that there is almost no chance that Prigozhin will take over the Belarusian military and march on Moscow - but at this point - nothing is zero percent. I see Putin's regime now as mortally wounded. Since March, we have seen a continuing escalation of Russian partisans and Russian leaders challenging Moscow's power, and each event has been an escalation. March 2023 was, haha, we crossed the border and took selfies. April 2023 was, haha; we crossed the border, talked to villagers, shot some videos, and walked back. May 2023 was, haha; we cross the border, occupied a couple of villages for the day, killed some Russian soldiers, and left. June 2023 was, haha; we cross the border and occupied parts of Belgorod for up to six days. We exposed to the world how porous the border is and how impotent the Kremlin is. Then 17 days later, it was we are marching to Moscow for Shoigu, Gerasimov, and their supporters in the Kremlin, "capturing" two Russian cities, four military bases, multiple units defecting, shooting down 7 aircraft and apparently getting away with it. We exposed how close the Russian military really is to collapse. Putin promised a brutal response and killed Syrian civilians, bombed Russian civilians on the M-4 Highway, took down some billboards, and Wild Berries stopped selling PMC Wagner merch for 12 hours. If the past is a predictor of the future, then the future is bleak for Putin and his inner circle.

Wargonzo gives mostly accurate battlefield analysis that contradicts RIA and RF MoD, and Strelkov has been ranting and raving about how terribly Shoigu, Gerasimov and in a gentler way Putin have been conducting the war, calling Putin grandad and the non-commander-in-chief who is only interested in eco-tourism. And the cross-section of people that follow Prigozhin, Strelkov and Wargonzo is large. I expect the cross-section of people who believe RIA and follow the above telegram channel is small, but the majority of Russians who are not simply trying to ignore the whole thing. I am sure plenty of in the FSB were also aware of Prigozhin’s intentions. That is why the Kremlin/MoD have been trying to disband Wagner.

Isn't the Russian MoD actually a winner here? Their image is tarnished but do Shoigu and Gerasimov care? They've got rid of Prigozhin and PMC Wagner and can now more effectively exert control. Their units didn't mutiny, they'll take that win. In addition the RIA (news agency) is a winner if Prighozin isn't on Telegram contradicting their false narratives. Also a massive loser are the FSB who failed to detect a well planned mutiny that US security agencies apparently knew about well ahead of time. Putin should be even more paranoid if his his security reports are so unreliable and wrong. Other losers might include fellow members of the autocrats club and Russian allies and apologists. Although I'm expecting Tucker Carlson is going to claim this was all faked by the CIA and their leftwing media patsies.

I think the question that needs to be investigated is: Was Prigozhin acting mainly alone or is he part of a group or network? If we assume he was mostly acting alone and take his statements at face value, then he wanted Shoigu and Gerasimov out. We have yet to see if he got that but the name of Dyumin is appearing in the Russian blogosphere. OK, he got what he wanted and didn't want to spill lots of blood to make it happen quicker. Now, he goes eventually back to Africa to greener, less bloody pastures. That seems plausible. However, it completely ignores that he seemed to want more power for himself. Prigozhin seems more to be sent into the desert rather than greener pastures. That is the baffling part: Everyone seemed to believe his real goal was either to lead in the RF MoD or become president himself. So, either we were all mistaken and he is not power crazy or there were more people involved in the background; the network theory. The network theory, I suggest, means he has people in the Kremlin and or RF MoD and or oligarchs that were aiding and supporting him. It would seem that plenty of functionaries and oligarchs would be be thinking that the SMO has been a disaster and needs to be ended, but how can Russia do that without an even bigger disaster of complete anarchy in which all the actors lose even more money and power. It would seem logical that there would be factions in the power centres that fall into three categories of plans: 1) Big personnel changes (including Putin) are needed 2) small changes (Shoigu and Gerasimov must go) are needed 3) finally, the do-nothing-I'm-scared camp. (Plan 4: The tear-it-all-down plan is not a plan for anybody in power) It would seem the plan of Prigozhin and his group was plan 2 as a minimal result but plan 1 if Putin doesn't get rid of the two. The third faction was arguing that plan 1 was actually plan 4. So, plan 2 was achieved and the network that Prigozhin was dependent on told him to backdown. He must in some way be dependent on the network, because otherwise, I believe, he would have wanted the power for himself. The network had seemingly given up trying to get through to Putin that changes had to be made and Prigozhin's "March of Justice" was the only way to get through to him. It still seems like Prigozhin either has been sent out into the desert or fell on his sword. Perhaps, the network told him to wait and his day is yet to come. Indeed, from a Russian perspective the results might have been optimal. There will be personnel changes, Putin has been weakened, but the system didn't implode, at least not yet. Perhaps Russia can slowly steer in a new direction without the anarchy of a full blown revolution. Those are my thoughts.

Russian was fed lies for decades. They don’t care. They just use lies as plausible deniability of their fascism at this point

Doublethink is real. It’s a good call-out

AnaR737

Thanks for the deep dive. Excellent read.

Prighozin is a clear winner here, IMO. Or at least Wagner group. They keep their PMC regardless of russki MoD orders (instead of losing everything and going to fertilizer). This is what this whole show was about. Wagner remains. Everything else is inconsequential imo. Especially dead russians. For those in power ruzzki lives are cheap and talk even cheaper. So all others are unaffected (so far). And Putin will spin it as victory and great feat of leadership. Doublethink is real. Just wait and see.

Excellent analysis. Brings clear perspectives to a chaotic series of events. Can the Kremlin now revert to the “everything is going to plan” message and act like nothing happened? Has Prigozhin’s message reached many ordinary Russians and does it change their awareness of the realities of their “special military operation”? And will it get even harder for the Kremlin to manage the message and potential backlash if there are new setbacks and bad news from Ukraine? TBD

Chris Rasmussen

Lab X is warming up