TheMalcontent
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Russian- Ukraine War Flash Report - June 25, 2023 15:30 PDT
🕑 Added 2023-06-25 22:33:20 +0000 UTCOn April 18, several Russian propagandists reported that Ukrainian forces had made a successful wet crossing over the Dnipro to the left (east) bank, attempted to occupy the area around the Antonovskyy Bridge, and were destroyed. On April 20, some propagandists walked back the claim, a video emerged of Ukrainian troops less than a kilometer from the urbanized parts of Oleshky; and we declared it true, as did the Institute for the Study of War. A few days later DeepState also accepted it.
While everyone was focused on Russia on June 23, the same propagandists from April 18 were claiming Ukraine made another successful wet crossing of the Dnipro and reoccupied the same areas. We are accepting these claims at face value and believe that Ukrainian forces have established a forward operating base (FOB) on the east bank of the Dnipro.
This follows additional reports that more Ukrainian DRG teams have been operating in Oleshky than reported, with the evacuation of civilians continuing. This is also likely true and has been kept quiet up to this point for operational security reasons and to protect the operation.
Russian forces lost 5 to 15 kilometers of defenses on the left (east) bank of the Dnipro after the destruction of the Kakhovka Dam, and the Russian 810th Naval Infantry was redeployed to Zaporizhia. There has been little evidence from photos and videos from the Reuters-Thompson news team in occupied Kherson showing a massive Russian military presence in Hola Prystan or Oleshkhy.
We maintain that it is highly unlikely Ukraine will attempt a brigade-sized wet crossing to expand the bridgehead. However, as the mud flats dry out, and due to the state of chaos the Russian military is in and redeployments to Zaporizhia, the possibility of an attempt has increased.
Comments
I just had a thought. Ukraine may have placed enough anti air defense systems in the Kerson area to discourage Russian aviation. Plus Ukraine might have enough counter battery systems to eliminate Russian Artillery assets. Further, Ukraine may have destroyed Russian Counter battery systems, preventing Russia from targeting and eliminating Ukrainian artillery. This would all be considered shaping operations in May and into June. So hold the line and push them everywhere. Build enough resources to cross the river at Kerson. Build a viable base of operations and slowly grind Russia against the Azov Sea and prevent resupply across the land bridge between Crimea and Kerson. By the end of August, If Ukraine controls everything between Kerson and the land bridge to Crimea and is pressuring Melitpol, then the Russians lost their land bridge to Crimea. I would think the fall/winter campaign would push the Russians further towards the Russian Border.
Again and again I keep wondering where the Russian air force is. Not complaining, just wondering.
Who knows what the massive release of water did to the lower Dnipro River. There may be viable crossing locations for infantry that would allow enough cover to build a pontoon bridge, which would allow mechanized forces to cross. We will see if the Ukrainians can hold the eastern bank long enogh to establish enough forces to take Hola Pyrstan and Oleshky. That would be something.
