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Russian- Ukraine War Flash Report - June 26, 2023 17:45 PDT - The Fate of Russia Was Announced???
🕑 Added 2023-06-27 00:52:38 +0000 UTC"These statements, without exaggeration, will determine the fate of Russia."
- Dmitry Peskov, Kremlin Press Secretary
If Russian Federation President Vladimir Putin's less than six-minute speech was the determination of Russia's future, the bar was low.
Not much was said by Putin that wasn't said three days ago.
- Russian society is unified, unlike ever before, to defend the Russian homeland.
- The defense forces assured Constitutional order.
- Called the insurrection a rebellion and criminal action and vowed people would be brought to justice.
- Says the organizers of the rebellion betrayed those who followed them
- Call it "suicide" that would aid Ukraine and the West and cause Russia "to fail."
- Hinted this was Western-backed as an attempt to take revenge "for their failures at the front."
- Overwhelming members of PMC Wagner mercenaries are "patriots" who proved their courage.
- They were encouraged to act against their compatriots.
- Called it a coup
- Had it been successful, there would have been "tragic consequences."
- Urged all PMC Wagner fighters to contract with the Ministry of Defense or "go home," and the promise will be honored, and it is an individual choice.
- It is the patriotic feelings that have saved the country and saved our home.
- Putin acknowledged the loss of the pilots, the first official confirmation, and called their service "selfless."
The speech was then repeatedly played on Russian state media, creating alarm in social media channels, while hosts said a second statement would be made. Pictures and videos showed Putin's senior security and military leaders meeting in what was called "an emergency meeting," including Russian Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu sans his uniform. Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov was not at the meeting.
The Kremlin then announced there would be no second statement, adding to the anti-climatic nature. When Peskov was pressed about his claim that the speech would determine the fate of Russia, he denied ever saying it.
Before Putin's speech, Prigozhin released an 11-minute audio recording that, while more coherent and believable, rambled and repeated at least four times how PMC Wagner forces advanced 780 kilometers in less than a day.
Prigozhin reiterated that the "March for Justice" started after missile strikes on his camps and that he was prepared to go to Rostov-on-Don on June 30 and turn over the heavy equipment used in Ukraine to the Russian Ministry of Defense. Prigozhin repeatedly claimed that no Russian ground troops were killed, a claim that was disputed over the weekend by propagandist Readovka. He said that only 2% of PMC Wagner fighters have taken the offer to sign contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defense, and anyone doing so will be subject to use in "meat waves." Prigozhin says he took the offer from Alexander Lukashenko to go to Belarus because he would allow Wagner to continue to operate as an entity.
The PMC Wagner Telegram Channel Reserve Side of the Medal struck a tone that strongly implied that PMC Wagner, as we know it today, is no more and that 500 Wagnerites, out of an estimated 25,000, have taken the offer to go to Belarus.
ASSESSMENT: Well, this feels nearly impossible, and there have been over two hours of discussion on what we collectively think. Trying to sort out the truth and lies from a group of known liars who are all engaged in political theater is, in a word, challenging.
- Our assessment that the Kremlin sent a signal that Minister of Defense Shoigu is going nowhere, at least in the short term, was accurate. We mostly believe people are reading too much into the fact he was wearing a suit and not his military uniform. His mid and long term fate remains unclear.
- This isn't the first time that Chief of Staff Gerasimov has not had a seat at the table of the senior staff. At least in the short term, there have been no implications or hints that he will be fired.
- Does Occam's Razor win? Is this as simple as PMC Wagner headquarters move to Minsk and things continuing as close to normal in the short term in Africa? That appears to be the reality for the next six hours until the next episode of Season 9, Game of Thrones, Moscow, drops.
- Reaction on Russian social media channels to Putin's speech was generally unfavorable, with many underwhelmed and wondering what fates were decided.
- As of this writing, there is no official dismissal of charges against Yevgeny Prigozhin. Putin never mentioned him by name and vowed that the organizers of the "coup," as he called it, would not go unpunished. This doesn't bode well for Prigozhin or Denis Utkin in the mid to long term.
- There seems to be a general belief not just in our circle but from others that this is not over, and there is more to come. There is a general belief that aligns with our earlier assessment; another attempt to destabilize or replace the Russian government is very likely.
- While Putin claims that the events over the weekend showed and strengthened Russian unity, the reality of the events shows there are rifts within the defense structures of the Russian Federation. Wagnerites were venerated as heroes in the streets of Rostov-on-Don, while security forces were blocked and called traitors when they returned. However, in Russian society, the dear leader is the best leader who personally knows and loves me right up until the new leader arrives. The general Russian population, after 20 years of state-sanctioned propaganda, may accept the unity message, but those looking for the outside in sure aren't.
In our final assessment, Putin's speech raised more questions and didn't resolve any open issues. He was angrier in his delivery. In Image is everything Russia, the somewhat poor audio quality for a critical speech was peculiar.
These last three words will say it best.
This isn't over.
Comments
AnaR737
I agree. Just look at their geography. The country is an absolute jewel. In a way I really do understand why it is so hard for Russia to let go (not that it justifies anything). What they lacked before was cohesion, a sense of national purpose, efficiency, rule of law, etc. I really do think this trauma will help them get over at least from the worst of those things that were so ingrained in the culture. They are not going to just go away, but they are also not going to drag them down and trip them as much as before. I have great hopes for them, and I think they will be a shining example for other messed up countries with unused potential. But for now, they are in the middle of the struggle...
Actually, what most Russians have accepted is living in a _dis_information-based society. It’s working out just great, isn’t it? /s On a different note, I would avoid counting war victories or defeats as a measure of a country’s success. Various otherwise successful Western countries have lost multiple wars and even their empires over the last couple of centuries. They are still prospering precisely because they have other strengths and interests. Plus, they keep and attract talented people rather than losing them to repression and/or emigration every generation or two.
I don't know what will happen to Ukraine. Out of necessity, they are digitizing their governmental operations. This should reduce the typical inefficiency of government bureaucracy. If they do succeed in kicking Russia out of Crimea and eastern Ukraine, they will have lots of opportunities to develop their economy. Even without taking Crimea or Luhansk and Donetsk, they can still build a strong unified modern society that will easily integrate with the West.
In a way, is this any different when they selected Andropov as party secretary? What about all the other leaders in Russia? Same old same old. For whatever reason, the Russian people have a childish approach to politics. They put trust in the big guy in Moscow and they have nothing meaningful to show for it other than Russia remaining a large powerful country. They lost in WWI. They lost the war with Japan. They lost in Afghanistan. They have lost so many wars over the last 100 plus years. Did they win WWII? Yes, which allowed them to become the second most powerful nation in World history. But their society is not doing well in accepting the reality of an information-based society. I just don't see Russian gaining any long-term benefits from their invasion of Ukraine.
