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Russia-Ukraine SITREP for 16 JULY 2023 23:59* - Kerch Bridge Partial Collapse After USV Attack
🕑 Added 2023-07-17 09:05:35 +0000 UTCAre you new to our Patreon? You need to click on the link to download the PDF attachment, which has links to all the videos referenced in the podcast.
This is Report 440, which is 34 pages and combat only.
What's the big story? The westbound highway section of the Kerch Bridge partially collapsed after an attack by two Ukrainian uncrewed surface vessels (USV).
What's the second story? Is the Ukrainian offensive over and failed? What does the truth have to say? Special assessment on why you need to breathe.
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Comments
AnaR737
Whether Putin likes it or not, Prigozhin's rebellion is bound to have profound ramifications. There are so many moral hazards in the way it was handled. The men who followed Prigozhin to Rostov and now Belarus have gotten off pretty lightly, right? By his own account, Putin even attempted to keep the Wagner mercenaries in Russia under a different commander! I guess thousands of tough veterans are worth trying such a dicey move, but it also sends a weird message, at least the way I read it. Other soldiers could very well look at that example when calculating what could happen to them in a hypothetical move to improve their situation. If it goes bad they can always say they were "misled". As for the commanders, to me it looks like they are between a rock and a hard place. On another note, does anyone think that having Wagner mercenaries in Belarus can possibly end well? I think in a few weeks we will start hearing about bar brawls and worse. I hope I get to see Lukashenko rue the day he struck the deal....
Yesterday's ISW report says that "Insubordination among commanders appears to be spreading to some of their soldiers." and traces it all back to V Putin for meddling and creating a dysfunctional chain of command. https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-16-2023 This report has some very interesting nuggets like this one: "Russian commanders are likely setting information conditions to prevent the Russian MoD from punishing them for their insubordination by promoting narratives among Russian servicemembers along the front and thereby risking widespread demoralization." Are we getting closer to a breaking point where insubordination from the rank and file means units refusing to fight?
The same report stated that strikes on command and control centres in the occupied territories are not getting reported because they generally don't cause huge explosions (like hitting ammo depots) and there aren't typically photos or videos of the strikes. But there are more of these ongoing than the ones that do get reported.
Ukrainian Intelligence is (reportedly) claiming to have eliminated yet another of their top 10 targets: Col Maksim Kharlamov, Commander of the 96th Reconnaissance Brigade. He and his Brigade are considered to have been very effective in Ukraine. Possibly hit by a Storm Shadow missile recently while in a fortified bunker. I didn't see a location. (Storm Shadows can penetrate reinforced concrete and soil.) For some reason I have a hankering to hear Frank Sinatra and Sammy Davis Jr do their rendition of "Me and My Shadow".
