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Russia-Ukraine SITREP for 10 JULY 2023 23:59* - Ukraine and Russia Trade Breaches

🕑 Added 2023-07-11 07:57:44 +0000 UTC

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Thanks for the details. The report from the YouTuber doesn't clarify that he's covering events over a number of days and not just the previous day. Yesterday it was reported that two independent Russian media outlets, Mediazona and Meduza, working with a data scientist from Germany’s Tübingen University, had used Russian government data to estimate the number of Russian dead at nearly 50,000. This estimate seems much too low. Is it probable that that the issue is that they're using "Russian government data" and this has been knowingly manipulated to exclude DNR unit losses and penal colony convicts and the MIA etc. etc.?

On July 9, we shared the July 7 video visually confirming that at least an entire company of Russian forces was destroyed in the Avdiivka direction. There are 12 vehicles visually confirmed destroyed in that video. Girkin hinted it was bad on July 8, and we have seen claims of 200 KIA. But without pictures/videos... Reminder, we have stopped trying to estimate casualties because, with war at this scale, it is unlikely that either combat has exact figures. Any combatant will publicly minimize their losses while embellishing enemy losses. That has gone on since humans documented war on clay tablets, rock carvings, and animal skin scrolls. There was an incident early in 2023 where there were multiple clear videos of a failed Ukrainian attack near Orikhiv with both Russian and Ukrainian videos. There were casualty reports from Ukraine, the Russian Ministry of Defense, the commander of the Russian unit, and Russian collaborator Vladimir Rogov. It was a unique opportunity to analyze how each party counted casualties and, without jumping through hoops of logic, could trace how each report reached its numbers. The Russian Ministry of Defense overstated the number of vehicles destroyed and assumed that each vehicle had the maximum number of dismounts. The Russian commander, interestingly, had a lower number of vehicles destroyed than the videos showed and may not have counted damaged in his estimate. His KIA number was about one-third of the Russian MOD. Rogov appeared to have estimated off the Russian video while splitting the difference on how many occupants could have been in each vehicle. It will likely be years before the numbers are known. It will likely take another phase of quasi-democracy in Russia and a period of reconciliation to learn their numbers.

The channel “Reporting from Ukraine” https://youtube.com/watch?v=vMgm-8Nexlw&feature=shareb is reporting that in the Avdiivka direction Russians lost 200 men and 21 tanks and BMP in their counterattack. Is that verified?