TheMalcontent
patreon
Russian- Ukraine War Flash Report - July 12, 2023 16:30 PDT - Russian 58th CAA Commander is Dismissed
🕑 Added 2023-07-12 23:18:41 +0000 UTCRussian sources reported yesterday that Major General Ivan Popov, the commander of the 58th Combined Arms Army, was dismissed by Russian Federation Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov for providing a candid assessment of the situation in the Orikhiv area of operation. It was claimed that in July 10 meeting, where Popov was advocating for a troop rotation to provide rest, resupply, and reconstitution for his troops, he threatened to go over Gerasimov's head and directly to Russian President Vladimir Putin to report the real situation on the front, with evidence.
Today, in a four-minute audio statement, Popov confirmed he had been dismissed and gave a damning statement on the situation in the Kremlin and the Orikhiv area of operation.
"A difficult situation with the leadership emerged. It was a choice between remaining silent and afraid and saying what they wanted to hear or calling things for what they are. In your name [addressing his troops - Ed.], in the name of all perished comrades-in-arms, I didn’t have the right to lie. Hence I named all the problems that exist today in the army regarding operations and supply. I pointed the attention to the most important tragedy of the modern war - the lack of counter-battery fire, lack of artillery reconnaissance stations and intelligence, and mass casualties and injuries of our brothers from enemy artillery.
I also raised a number of other issues, expressed them to the highest levels, and did it openly and very brutally. Due to this, the seniors likely felt some danger in me and instantly, in one day, put together an order to the Minister of Defence and got rid of me.
As many commanders of regiments and divisions said today, our army was not broken through the front, but our most senior commander hit us in the back, thus treacherously beheading the army in the most difficult period."
The only person senior to Popov between him and Russian Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu is Valery Gerasimov because General of Army Sergei Surovikin is allegedly on "vacation" and can't be reached.
He then went on to say, "I will do everything to save as many of our warriors as possible. Keep doing our combat mission. It's in the name of those who have never returned from the battlefield. In the name of their memory, the blood of our soldiers and officers in Zaporizhzhia. We have to break up the enemy. With you, repel the enemy. Create conditions for follow-up actions and thus honor our memory of lost comrades."
In our assessment, these are words meant to inspire but are not the words of a military leader who believes that his army is winning.
It is worth noting that the Deputy Commander of the 58th CAA, Lieutenant General Oleg Tsokov, was killed in a Storm Shadow missile attack on the Dunes Hotel in Berdyansk on July 11. Popov was also staying at the hotel but had left after his July 10 dismissal. It is unclear who is commanding the 58th CAA at the moment.
Popov's statement also confirms some reports from the Ukrainian command. We've been sharing the reports, when they are released, of Ukrainian forces firing 1,100 to 1,500 fire missions a day on the Tavarian Front - that's Kherson and Zaporizhia. That is 10X to 15X more fire missions per day than what Russia is firing on Kherson. Popov claims that Russian troops are suffering heavy losses due to artillery and there is a lack of Russian counterbattery are accurate. The low morale among troops who have not been rotated off the forward line of friendly troops (FLOT - Russian) would fuel the capture of Russian soldiers (there were more POW videos today).
Popov is now the third figure to come forward and accuse Gerasimov of incompetence and lying to Putin in less than a month. This was a core reason Prigozhin attempted an insurrection, and recent statements from Igor Strelkov Girkin aligned with Prigozhin that the whole pretext to the Russian war in Ukraine was one big lie, and Russia can't possibly win.
Russian chatter states that Popov was very popular among his commanders and troops. Attempting to advocate on their behalf and report the truth, only to get fired, is likely not going to help Russian morale.
And we can't help but notice how Popov reported to Surovikin, who was a Prigozhin ally, and now is part of the group of military and mercenary leaders who have spoken openly about how Gerasimov and Shoigu are conducting the war.
Comments
Ethan Stein
That aged nicely.
Ultimately they're motivated to stay in power and they evidently have no genuine concerns for the wellbeing of ordinary Russians.
AnaR737
The kleptocratic element adds an ingredient that makes this regime a little different from the nazi regime, for example, or even from stalinism. I am not saying no one stole in the USSR, but there was a big element of belief in communism and nazism as ideologies that drove the leaders, who of course eventually went power crazy, but not money crazy. In the case of this Russian regime, kleptocracy is a big component and I don't know exactly how to gauge its weight in this whole thing. It will be interesting to see how the dynamics between the ideology-crazed true believers, the mafia dons, the middle ranks in the military etc., plays out. Hard to predict...
I forgot to also call them Kleptocrats! They're not motivated by ideology and certainly not to liberate the oppressed ethnic Russians. They evoke nationalism and even religion because it's a convenient foil and aligns to powerful forces in Russia that they can leverage, but their motivations are primarily to retain and grow their own power and wealth. Prigozhin called it. Gerasimov knows his soldiers are suffering and dying, but they’re expendable. He obviously doesn’t want these awkward details made public. The Kremlin and RMoD think that the Ukrainian counteroffensive will be exhausted by the fall and then the allies and ordinary Ukrainians will lose confidence when faced with the prospect of years more war.
AnaR737
PP, I would pay big money to be fly on the wall listening to the goings on in the Kremlin right now. Orwellian, Soviet, totalitarian, fascist, all those apply. I thought it quite interesting that in his speech right after the insurrection, Putin mentioned 1917. In his situation, I would have thought long and hard before using that reference. It does evoke images of tumult and chaos that of course would make someone think twice before supporting a mutiny, but on the other hand it brings to mind a pathetic regime unable to give any kind of response to the grievances of soldiers who are being treated like things, not human beings.
Russia is reverting back to Soviet style totalitarianism with a twist of fascism. The leadership was always paranoid (and Putin got worse over Covid isolation) but is now also suffering from 'siege mentality' because of the poor performance of the war, internal political and economic pressures and of course the Wagner mutiny. Perhaps they are more fearful of their own people than they are of the Ukrainians! In totalitarian regimes the only thing that’s important is the state, and so by definition the leaders. Soldiers and the rest of society must do as they’re commanded. If they die or suffer then that's for the greater good of the state, their families should be proud to make this sacrifice. If they question commands or point to failings or injustices they are enemies of the state or corrupted by western propaganda. Sounds Orwellian because it really is!
AnaR737
I agree. I went on RT English, typed "Popov" in the search and came up with zip zero at least until just now. Why, when it is all over the news for us and it comes from a Russian source? Same thing happened with "partial mobilization", with the failed insurrection, and now with this. It is important, but they don't know exactly what to say.
He went public and risks imprisonment or worse. The US and UK armies are far from perfect and their generals have been shown to mislead and even lie to their political masters. But if any US Army commander sent in his unit to fight without proper weapons in a “meat wave” assault, do we think they’d go? And do we think the media wouldn’t get to hear about it and it wouldn’t be the biggest story for weeks? Russia is close to a totalitarian state now. Strangely it seems the Russian public are more in favour of the war than previously but those surveys are suspect.But a growing number of Russians must be hearing and understanding that their war isn’t going well and that their leadership is lying to them. Personally I think this war only comes to an end when the Russian army mutinies, or at least large sections refuse to fight. And so this is a positive sign.
Putin should take charge himself. After all he has a black belt in judo... It is definitely his cup of (polonium) tea
AnaR737
That is one message, for sure, but there are many others if this guy Popov is to be believed. If you take his statement at face value, he is a soldier who has been given orders and wants to get the job done, right? He probably hates Ukrainians but he also knows what needs to happen for him to be able to hold these defenses or advance on that village. He also knows that if he does not get his job done, he will be the one taking the blame, not the guys who refuse him the support he needs. That is the reason why I find it very interesting that this is happening after the mutiny failed and when Surovikin is AWOL.
Ethan Stein
In a society with free speech Popov would probably at least to some extent talking to a myriad of news agencies and reporters. In Russia will he be giving publicly available interviews or answering the public's questions?
Isn't the message here that you shouldn't tell your general the truth? This is the legacy of Stalinism. I'm going to give you an order and you're going to carry it out and report back how brilliantly successful it was.
I would wonder how much Ukraine is paying Gerasimov if our own politicians weren’t such great examples of how cupidity and greed for power trumps competence and integrity However, I still have to wonder how so many Russians can be so incredibly clueless
I was afraid that any moment now they’ll get rid Gerasimov and get someone competent instead. But what a relief, they are continuing with the same agenda. 🤦♀️
AnaR737
...And we can't help but notice how Popov reported to Surovikin, who was a Prigozhin ally, and now is part of the group of military and mercenary leaders who have spoken openly about how Gerasimov and Shoigu are conducting the war. Personally, I think that bit has a lot of significance. A lot.
