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Russian- Ukraine War Flashback - July 21, 2023 13:30 PDT - This Aged Like Fine Wine
🕑 Added 2023-07-21 21:44:21 +0000 UTCI'm tired. I'm frustrated. I'm grumpy. Thank you for your understanding if my tone comes across as a bit snarky. To those who have ever said, "We're just news aggregators."
Dateline, February 4, 2023, Situation Report for Day 346.
"State Duma deputy Oleg Matveychev of the United Russia Party (Putin’s political party) believes that 2023 will be a dangerous year, and "turbo patriots" could start mass protests due to the slow progress “in their opinion” of the “special military operation.”
Matveychev said, “The only danger for our state is a turbo-patriotic Maidan with slight leftism and talk at the same time about corruption. This is exactly the way to get people out.”
“Let's say, once again, something like Izyum…happens,” he continued, “and another hysteria. We go out into the streets, we remove the ‘thief Shoigu,’ and the story begins. Moreover, they will certainly want someone in the presidential election who will push something turbo-patriotic if there is such a candidate. Everything is purely according to the Maidan scenario.”
The idea that you could be too patriotic and question dear leader, sorry President Putin, in any capacity is viewed as a threat on the surface is shocking. However, Matveychev declared that in 2022 Russia had defeated the Communists and liberals to only the dark corners, where they no longer have a voice. Autocratic societies need enemies to survive, and the leadership will never stop looking for enemies – like the “turbo patriotic.”
Who could Matveychev be talking about? They think Shoigu is a thief, is politically a little left of President Putin, has a fervent following that would take to the streets if he asked, has political ambitions, and has spoken out against government corruption.
If you said Yevgeny Prigozhin, congratulations, but Matveychev turbo patriots go beyond a single man. Despots always need enemies."
Yevgeny Prigozhin and Dmitry Utkin are a contained threat, disparaged in Russian State Media, and now being erased from the collective consciousness. Their mercenaries are disarmed and either in Belarus awaiting deployment to Africa or slipped back home, hoping they don't get called up into a Russian ghost unit for meat attacks. PMC Wagner, as we had previously assessed, is combat destroyed with 80% of the force that participated in the so-called "special military operation" killed or wounded, with most of the wounded permanently disabled.
A month after Prigozhin's failed insurrection, 11 high-profile Russian Generals, including Sergey Surovikin, remain missing. Fired Colonel General Mikhail Mizintsev, who joined PMC Wagner the day before Prigozhin announced he was withdrawing his mercenaries from Bakhmut (May 5), is also missing.
...but Matveychev turbo patriots go beyond a single man. Despots always need enemies...
The Kremlin has started another purge because they need new enemies. Igor Strelkov Girkin has been arrested and charged with "extremism" by his former employer, the FSB, and is facing up to five years in prison. Detention by house arrest was denied, and he will be held in pre-trial custody until his next hearing on September 18, 2023.
The FSB has also arrested Pavel Gubarev. A Russian collaborator, Gubarev was the first self-declared governor of the so-called Donetsk People's Republic on March 3, 2014, and named Girkin (under his alias Strelkov) as his Minister of Defense. Gubarev barely survived an assassination attempt in October 2014, and other factions in the DNR did not permit him to run in the founding elections. He tried to run against Denis Pushilin in 2018, but his candidacy was rejected under the allegation that the paperwork submitted had forged signatures.
Also detained - Another Russian member, Yan Sidorov, and Yaroslav Stozhek. Girkin's arrest comes on the heels of another member of the Angry Patriot Club, retired Russian GRU Colonel Vladimir Kvachkov, now under criminal investigation for "discrediting the Russian Federation Armed Forces," which ironically could carry a longer prison sentence. Kvachkov has the dubious distinction of being the only Russian formally charged with "organization of an armed rebellion" as the leader of the so-called "Crossbow Coup," which never even got to the execution phase.
Prigozhin was facing similar charges until the FSB closed their investigation, hours after Russian President Vladimir Putin promised Priogozhin and all those involved would be punished. The FSB stated the investigation ended because PMC Wagner "ceased their actions directly aimed at committing the crime.”
If you've read this far and are scratching your head over how insane this appears outside of the Kremlin, you're not alone. However, for Putin and his inner circle, the logic is pure.
We had repeatedly warned as far back as October 2022 that by enabling PMC Wagner to swell its ranks to 50,000 mercenaries, loyal less to Russia and more to Prigozhin due to the prison code, the Kremlin was creating a monster it would not be able to contain. The Kremlin initially told African nations with PMC Wagner involvement that Moscow would not be in charge and then walked it back. As we had previously assessed, the Kremlin unexpectedly said the quiet part aloud, and taking over Wagner's operations in Africa would remove all plausible deniability that the Kremlin is directly involved in wars and conflict in no less than six African nations. In the end, Putin needs Prigozhin in Africa, and the one thing we got wrong, was not identifying Belarus as a possible destination for an exiled PMC Wagner. Prigozhin made it clear yesterday that he is still looking over his shoulder and is not a welcome entity in Moscow.
Strelkov doesn't have an army of 8K to 10K mercenaries with fanatical loyalty and hasn't been able to call Putin on speed dial since mid-2014. He's been arrested, perp-walked, arraigned (in United States court speak), and will be held in pre-trial detention in a system that has a 99% conviction rate. There are many people, including Prigozhin, who want nothing more than Strelkov to disappear forever.
Moscow is already moving to dismantle the Angry Patriot Club, and we expect more arrests in the coming days and weeks. This is the direct fallout from the failed Prigozhin Insurrection and represents the distrust and conflict within the Kremlin. Clearly, Girkin has allies in high places. He wouldn't have been able to operate the way he has without metaphorical air cover. The question is, have those factions lost power, or have they been arrested outside of the headlines?
Could Girkin be released and charges dismissed? Is this a "warning" to shut up? That's possible, but Strelkov was detained in August 2022 and altered his tone for about - two weeks. The man can't help himself, and he won't be silent. Could he find a home in Belarus? We're reluctant to dismiss this out of hand, but we don't believe Girkin has anything he can offer the Lukasehnko regime beyond headaches.
When the podcast script and the SITREP merged in late August, our description of Girkin as "our favorite FSB colonel, wanted (then shifted to convicted) war criminal, failed mobik (after November 2022), and Kremlin pariah was not a term of endearment. The FSB is a notoriously brutal organization that has worked to destabilize governments around the world and has committed countless atrocities within Russia and abroad. While Girkin's insight on the ongoing so-called "special military operation" has been very accurate, it does not change the fact that he was directly involved in the downing of flight MH-17, a Boeing 777, killing 298 onboard. It doesn't change the fact that he ordered the execution of civilians in Ukraine during his time as the so-called Minister of Defense of the DNR. It doesn't change the fact that he has openly admitted to torturing and killing Ukrainian POWs. It doesn't change the fact that he is the ultimate "little green man" and People's Exhibit A that Russia was militarily involved starting in January 2014. We repeatedly cringe when Girkin is referred to as a "former senior commander" or similar language in the larger press. Girkin was a disaster as the so-called Minister of Defense of the DNR and was yanked out of Ukraine by the Kremlin. His days as a military commander ended nine years ago - almost to the day.
Further, if Girkin and his turbo patriots had their way, Russia would be under full mobilization, in a 100% war economy, and his faction would be waging unrestricted war - total war - on Ukraine. Everything, including tactical nuclear weapons, would be on the table. The only difference between Putin and Girkin is Putin has shrinking groups of adults around him, keeping him from doing the unthinkable, and Putin won't admit aloud that he wants to commit genocide on the Ukrainian people. There are 18 months of action that show the real plan.
...but Matveychev turbo patriots go beyond a single man. Despots always need enemies...
What is next? We already see Putin creating new enemies with his direct, historically inaccurate, and unhinged statement about Poland today. I know this raises a red flag for some, but is the real plan to have 8,000 to 10,000 Wagnerites storm the Polish border and secure the Suwalki Gap to Kaliningrad?
A) The best thing for the West and Ukraine would be Russia opening up a second front. History shows that other authoritarians/dictators with Imperialist goals opening up multiple fronts end in complete failure.
B) The only thing 8,000 to 10,000 Wagnerites could do storming the Polish border is make marginal gains and open discussions for an Article V declaration.
While Putin's statement is easily dismissed today, history has shown that Putin's threats to reoccupy western Poland are not an idle threat. That's a promise in Putin's speak. Remember, the people around him are telling him Russia is winning in Ukraine. They are hiding the losses. They are hiding the defeats. the wounded, the lack of pay, the ammunition shortages, all of it. Putin sincerely believes he has the strongest military in the world. Even if he didn't believe anymore, any hesitation in Russian leadership is a sign of weakness, and Putin is desperate to look strong right now. Russia is laying the foundation for new enemies - despots always need enemies, and the Ukraine bio lab Neo-Nazi secret weapons combat mosquitoes. Polish mercenary NATO troops collective West rhetoric is becoming stale.
Western allies and NATO needs to accept that this fight can end here and now, metaphorically in Kyiv, or they can continue to have Ukraine fight with one hand tied behind its back and risk having this fight in five years in Warsaw and Berlin. Ukraine desperately needs to be armed as quickly as possible with multirole aircraft. Russia sees this slow roll as a weakness. No, we are not calling for NATO troops in Ukraine - we are calling for the West to provide Ukraine with everything it needs. If Ukraine is the bulkhead between Russia and World War III, then Ukraine's allies need to start arming Ukraine to fight at a level that is supportive of protecting all of Europe.
What about the inside of Russia?
...but Matveychev turbo patriots go beyond a single man. Despots always need enemies...
While Putin's regime does not look like Stalin's, it is moving at a faster and faster pace in that direction. Putin's paranoia is well documented, and after Prigozhin's Insurrection, he won't stop seeing enemies around him. There will be more arrests. There will be more purges. There will be more chaos. If Ukraine was properly armed, as it should have been months ago, they could better capitalize on the chaos in Russia's command structure.
As for how this is being taken in the Russian information space, the feelings are mixed. Girkin has a lot of enemies and is not a popular man, unlike Prigozhin, who worked for two decades to carefully create an image for himself. However, many are quick to point out the hypocrisy of the Kremlin. Prigozhin's men shot down seven Russian aircraft and killed 16 to 22 Russian airmen/soldiers. Civilians were killed, bridges were blown up, a refinery was set on fire, streets were dug up, and the Russian economy took a hit due to a mini bank run and further withdrawal of foreign assets.
Within the Russian information space, Girkin is guilty of being an opinionated asshole who says and writes a lot of truth on everything that the Russian Ministry of Defense gets wrong. Hanging in the air over all of this is the common Russian soldier who knows the reality at the front. They get most of their information from their personal cell phones. All they're seeing in their information space is chaos among leadership since late April. Reports of great victories and advances that they do not see themselves.
Putin's regime has become a snake eating itself. A message is being sent today. No further criticism of Sergei Shoigu and Valery Gerasimov will be tolerated. For Ukraine, at least that part is a win.
There is another signal in all of the noise. Putin feels deeply threatened and has become more unpredictable. As more moderate voices are purged from his circle, and he aligns himself further with the incompetent sycophants he has surrounded himself with, the global situation just got a bit more unstable.
Comments
As much as I like understanding the internal political process in Russia, I do still recognize the facts on the ground. Could Ukraine have received F-16 sooner? Yes. Could they have received more weapons sooner? Like the ATACMS? Yes. Would it have changed the dynamics on the battlefield? Yes. But the US elected Obama, then Trump and then Biden. Did Obama's tacit acceptance of the Russia's occupation of Crimes, the Russian Collusion story, the failure to investigate Biden's financial dealing with Ukraine, and NATO's general dislike of Trumps demand for more European spending on defense contribute to ignoring the Russia internal political process? Yes. Russia internal political process seems opaque to most people and western political leaders especially. However, I recently listened to a book on Kindle about the great revolutions of the modern world. One I found interesting was the 100-year process experienced by England from 1603 the death of Queen Elizabeth I, the end of the House of Tudor through the English Civil war under the leadership of Oliver Cromwell to the establishment of The House of Stuart in 1707. Russia's revolution beginning in 1917 with the Bolsheviks has not reached its conclusion. Maybe the Russian Federation, which took over after the collapse of the Soviet Union, is an interim step to the final collapse of the Russian Empire. Too bad a lot of people must die as Moscow political power crumbles as the Political power in London collapsed during WWII.
I have enjoyed reading your assessments. The information is helpful.
