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Russia-Ukraine SITREP for 07 AUG 2023 23:59* - Not a Lot of Good News Today
🕑 Added 2023-08-08 09:07:10 +0000 UTCAre you new to our Patreon? You need to click on the link to download the PDF attachment, which has links to all the videos referenced.
This is Report 460, which is 64 pages.
What's the big story? Ukrainian military leaders say it out loud; they are facing very serious challenges across the theater of war, and Ukrainian troops are struggling to hold the defensive lines in Kharkiv.
What's the second story? Despite the challenges, Ukrainian ammunition production is skyrocketing, and we have an exclusive special assessment that analyzes Russia's staggering losses. There are also signs that Russia's apparently infinite supply of heavy military equipment is finally reaching its finite point.
Summary
- Significant thunderstorm activity is possible in large areas of Ukraine on August 11
- Russian probing attacks continue in the areas of Synkivka, Vilshana, and Ivanivka, with Ukrainian forces struggling to hold defensive lines
- The Russian Air Force (VKS) bombed residential areas of Kruhlyakivka, killing two and wounding seven
- The city of Kharkiv was hit by an S-300 antiaircraft missile used for a ground attack
- Intense positional fighting continued from Novoselivkse to the east of Nojojehorivka in the Svatove area of operation (AO)
- Fighting continued in the Serebryanskyy Woods and near Bilohorivka in Luhansk
- Russian propagandists claim that a humanitarian aid center in Kreminna was hit by Ukrainian artillery, and the proof is obviously staged
- Fighting continued south of Bakhmut from Klishchiivka to Kurdyumivka
- Fighting continued east of Avdiivka and in Marinka
- Ukrainian forces advanced into northern Urozhaine and are occupying part of the settlement
- Ukraine executed 1,475 fire missions in eastern Kherson and Zaporizhzhia
- Ukrainian Deputy Minister of Defense Hanna Maliar said that Russian defensive structures are preventing Ukrainian advances in the Robotyne-Verbove area
- A Russian Ka-52 Alligator attack helicopter is confirmed shot down near Robotyne
- Russian media violated operational security and provided a detailed battle damage assessment of the Henichesk Bridge in occupied Crimea
- Unaffiliated Russian media source Baza reported insurgents struck a Russian security post in the Leninsky District of occupied Crimea with an IED on August 5
- Russian milbloggers provided proof that Ukrainian forces still occupy Dachi on the left (east) bank of the Dnipro River
- The Nikopol raion in the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast was shelled continuously on August 7
- Belarus has started military training exercises on the Polish border, simulating an attack on the Suwalki Gap, increasing border tension
- The Polish Border Service requested another 1,000 troops be deployed to the border of Belarus in response
- Belarusian border guards cut the fence between their nation and Lithuania and pushed four undocumented immigrants across the border
- Colonel Yuri Ignat, spokesperson for the Air Forces of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, said that a Kh-47 air-to-surface ballistic missile fired at Ukraine on August 5 was not fired from Belarusian airspace
- The Security Service of Ukraine arrested a Russian collaborator in Mykolaiv who was helping Moscow plot an assassination attempt on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy
- Deputy Minister of Defense Maliar called the situation in the theater of war “extremely” difficult and claimed Russia fired 500,000 various types of ammunition during the prior week
- Ukraine is considering expanding who can be mobilized and into what capacity to “ensure the functioning of the national economy in conditions of martial law”
- Ukrainian police broke up an illegal weapons ring in the Zakarpattia and Lviv Oblasts, recovering small arms and grenade launchers
- Alexander Kamyshyn, the Ukrainian Minister of Strategic Industries, reported that Ukraine would start producing NATO standard 155 mm artillery rounds by the end of 2023 and that production of Soviet-era ammunition doubled in July when compared to June
- The United States approved the transfer of M1A1 Abrams main battle tanks (MBTs) to Ukraine, with their arrival expected in “autumn”
- Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov was asked to clarify his comments to the New York Times about the upcoming 2024 Presidential elections in Russia, and he only made the situation worse
- The Russian FSB's ability to conduct warrantless searches was expanded to cars and homes of private citizens
- Russia has built a new quasi-self-propelled howitzer using the chassis of the BMP-3 infantry fighting vehicle
- Russia has removed over 40% of the armored vehicles stored at the largest reserve depot located in Vagzhanovo
- Head of the Chechen forces in occupied Ukraine, Magomed Daudov, implied that up to 22,000 Chechen OMON and Akhmat forces have been killed or permanently disabled since February 24, 2022
- Russian forces hit Pokrovsk with two missiles in a “double tap” attack that killed seven and wounded 57, including 24 police officers and EMS workers who responded to the first missile strike on an apartment building
- Ukrainian Brigadier General Alexander Tarnavskyi accused Russian forces of conducting a CBRN attack, shelling Novodanilivka with chloropicrin
- Twenty-two Ukrainian POWs were repatriated
- Metropolitan Pavlo (aka Petro Lebid) was released from pre-trial detention in Ukraine on $894,000 bail as he awaits trial for “supporting Russia’s war against Ukraine”
- Andriy Yermak, the Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, said that unanimous agreement to Ukraine’s ten-point peace plan was not achieved in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, over the weekend
- Russian FSB-controlled source Brief reported that Beijing is not happy with Moscow after Russian President Vladimir Putin threw China’s proposed peace plan “into the dustbin of the Russian Federation”
- United States Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the Kremlin is not interested in restoring the Black Sea Grain Initiative after Washington offered concessions to meet some of Moscow’s demands
- Sergey Chemezov, Head of Rostec, told Russian President Putin that by 2025, the stolen fleet of Boeing and Airbus commercial aircraft operated by Russian airlines will be out of commission due to a lack of spare parts
- Russian analysts with Yakov and Partners released a study that Russia’s natural gas industry profits will be cut by more than half in 2023 due to dramatically lower global demand
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Comments
From The Guardian: Reuters has reported that dozens of ships are backed up around critical Danube arteries close to Ukraine’s river gateways days after Russian drone attacks on Ukrainian ports. Shipping data showed at least 30 ships anchored around Musura Bay in the Black Sea, which leads into a channel that links up with Izmail further along the waterway.
Russia releases history schoolbook praising Ukraine invasion Textbook apparently written in just five months is part of Kremlin’s tightening of control over historical narrative in schools https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/aug/08/russia-releases-history-schoolbook-praising-ukraine-invasion
The Daily Telegraph Podcast "Ukraine The Latest" has a good interview today with an ISW analyst, who I think explains things very clearly. It's worth a listen if you want to get away from unhelpful CNN sound bites and NYT doom and gloom articles. "Why the Ukrainian counter-offensive can still succeed with Frederick W. Kagan of the Institute of the Study of War" It's a mixed picture for sure. However, it's the West's failure to fully support Ukraine that explains why Ukraine hasn't made more progress. I hope that Washington and Berlin are listening....
With CNN right now as a perfect example, commenting on unquantified "staggering' ukrainian losses without comparing with simultaneous russian losses or weakening of defenses... Again thanks for being different!
Thank you for the Oryx 'translation'. Does there exist a graph of the Oryx numbers showing in which phases the different losses have been accumulated? Really just putting the dated reports into a spreadsheet and see the slope. In particular- if the 3:1 loss ratio summary is for the war as a whole, what are current numbers? The big numbers and trends are never 'news' so they are rarely reported...
