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Flash Report 04 SEP 2023 - 15:30 PDT - You Know it's Big
🕑 Added 2023-09-04 22:41:41 +0000 UTCTaking the day off, I said.
Hey everyone. Take the day off, I said.
My last phone call of the day on Sunday was at 23;00 hours Seattle time to the Ukrainian team to discuss the reboot of the podcast and the Ukrainian view on Reznikov. "Both sides are quiet. We know things we can't share, as you know, but with Russia hitting Reni and Izmail the last two days with 60-ish drones, they've likely exhausted the supply. The Reznikov news is official; it should be a quiet day."
That was almost word for word.
I was an EMT once upon a time.
You never say it's quiet. It's tempting the gods.
Ukrainian forces have made tactically significant gains in the Orikhiv area of operation. The current phase of the offensive is moving much faster.
The map is updated and is likely conservative. We have solid intel that Ukrainian forces are further southeast of Robotyne than the map shows, but I am going to honor trying to take as much of the day off as possible.
Few things bring me more joy than when Russia releases a "See how good at war we are video" that shows the opposite. It's even better when they delete the videos due to the operational security violation. The Internet is forever, and the Kremlin still doesn't understand that.
Novoprokopivka: Ukrainian forces have taken the trenches north of the village, and much faster than what we expected. They are extremely well-built. On the map, the line of conflict is likely further south. To the east of the trench complex, Russian and Ukrainian sources are claiming that the high ground further southeast has also been liberated by Ukraine. We have not updated the map, but the reports have a lot of weight.
Verbove: Ukrainian forces have breached the second set of defenses of the second (some analysts call it the first) echelon of the Surovikin Line. These are the manned defenses. Ukraine has taken control of trench lines to the northwest of Verbove and the west.
Hot Take: Can't stress enough, my personal hot take. There is no sign of Ukrainian armor or heavy equipment advancing through the breach of the Surovikin Line west of Verbove. This remains a breach. There is not a bridgehead in Verbove itself or what you would call a breakthrough. Ukraine is driving two wedges into Russian defenses, southeast of Robotyne and on a wider front from Verbove to Novopokrovka.
The hill that is northeast of Novoprokopivka is unusually high for the Zaporizhzhia region. Ukraine will establish a firebase here when the area is secure enough. I'm confident this hill is taken because the trenches to the northwest are in Ukrainian control. That indicates to me that Russia lost the firing positions. At the minimum, they pulled their artillery back (a brief note in last night's SITREP).
Ukrainian forces are driving two wedges into the second echelon of the Surovikin Line, and by pushing eastward, they are expanding the salient, making it much harder to flank. Russia has broken off its offensives at Nesterianka and Kopani.
This is a very positive development, but there is a need to temper expectations. Every bush and tree has been turned into a defensive position by Russian troops. It isn't just a matter of now moving through the Russian manned defenses and clearing them. Ukrainian forces need to have the numbers to hold the positions they capture as they continue to push east into Verbove.
There is also this lingering question: Which combatant will exhaust their strategic reserves first? Russia will continue to throw warm breathing bodies at the problem. The team and myself are 100% convinced of this. An ill-trained, 50+-year-old Russian with a gun and Chinese body armor and a commander who is more interested in personal enrichment may not be a very effective fighter - but it is still a grunt with a gun.
We don't discuss casualties numbers because it's a fool's errand. Both combatants are suffering very high casualties. It is remarkable that even on offense, that rate is 1:1 to 1:3 in favor of Ukraine. For military hardware, the losses have been close to 1:1 since June. The problem for Ukraine? Russia has more warm-breathing bodies, and the Kremlin doesn't care about them - at all.
I'll conclude with this. I do not support the Ukrainian allied view of "as long as it takes." As long as it takes, what? I fully support arming Ukraine with everything it needs - now - to bring about the fastest victory possible. To preserve Ukrainian lives. To preserve Ukrainian culture. To preserve Ukrainian infrastructure.
Comments
Excellent commentary. Thank you! I suggested a question inspired by your points (with credit to you) for the next Kyiv Independent Patreon Community Written Q&A. I added running out of weapons, money for the war and/or political support / acquiescence as variables that may run out for a combatant. It would be interesting to see the take of these Ukrainian journalists on these questions. BTW, if you support Malcontent News, may I suggest also considering supporting the Kyiv Independent? They do great work.
On the topic of which side will run out of strategic reserve, I believe the ever increasing drone strikes on Russian territory is a strong hint of Ukraine’s military industrial capacity ramping up. I suspect Ukraine has deeper reserves and greater production (drones/munitions) than most realize. Another strong hint is the increasing news about western defense companies negotiating opening factories in Ukraine. They wouldn’t do that If Ukraine wasn’t showing strong industrial capabilities. These things might not be a huge factor in this offensive. But they definitely will be in determining how quickly Ukraine can start it’s next offense and each successive one after this one culminates.
