TheMalcontent
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Updated: Israel-Hamas Flash Report 17 OCT 2023 - 15:45 PDT - Hospital Horror
🕑 Added 2023-10-17 23:26:32 +0000 UTCUpdate: "Biden has already left Israel" should have read "Biden has already left for Israel."
On October 17, Anglican-run Al-Ahli al-Arabi hospital in Gaza City was rocked by an explosion that killed up to 500 people. Hamas and Israeli officials traded accusations of the strike being caused by an Israeli airstrike or by a failed Hamas rocket launch. At the time of the Flash Report, there was not enough conclusive evidence to authoritatively determine responsibility. We are only interested in being right over first because the truth matters.
A brief sidebar. Numerous respected news agencies have either pulled stories or edited them along with initial headlines. It is called the fog of war for a reason, and as we have noted, finding the truth for the last 11 days of the Israel-Hamas War has been incredibly challenging.
The Facts: Between 19:00 and 19:20 hours local time, an explosion was recorded from two angles at the Al-Ahli al-Arabi hospital. Video of the immediate aftermath has been geolocated. Gaza officials initially claimed 300 dead, with the number increasing to 500 and, as of the flash report, 600. We cannot independently verify the claims, and Gaza officials are on our "yellow list" (verify all claims)
The Israeli Defense Forces, which we moved to our "yellow list" on October 16 (verify all claims), stated they were not conducting airstrikes during that time frame.
Assessment: Multiple webcams pointed across Gaza appear to confirm that Israeli air strikes were not being conducted in the minutes leading up to the blast, but we have not established a timeline, and it is impossible to cover every square meter of Gaza with publicly available webcams.
Hamas shared on their Telegram channel around 19:00 local time that they were starting another rocket barrage against Israel. Because they are on the yellow list, the statement alone is not "proof." One video shows a series of rockets launching from Gaza, with one going off course and striking in the distance.
Assessment: The resolution and darkness make geolocation, in our assessment, impossible. Bellingcat has also shared that the timing of that video does not align with the timing of the explosion at the hospital.
A second video shows a rocket exploding in midflight and, a few seconds later, explosions on the ground, including one in the area of the hospital.
Assessment: A timeline for that video has not been established, nor has its authenticity been validated.
A third video from the ground is being shared, claiming it shows the moment of the explosion.
Assessment: That video is inconsistent with reports of a missile failure and midair breakup.
We can confirm this is a mass casualty event and that hundreds have been killed and wounded.
The geopolitical and security fallout from the explosion has been dramatic. U.S. President Joe Biden has canceled the planned Jordanian Summit with Jordan’s King Abdullah, Egypt’s President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi, and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, and Biden has already left for Israel.
Assessment: The cancelation and departure were likely due to a threat assessment concluding that security for POTUS was untenable. The State Department has since announced the meeting is "postponed."
Protests have erupted across the Middle East, with the Israeli government advising their citizens in Türkiye to leave immediately. In Jordan, protests broke out near the Israeli embassy, with local security forces and protesters clashing.
Assessment: The videos shared by The Independent claiming that protesters tried to storm the embassy and enter it are inconclusive. It does show a large protest and security forces deploying what appears to be smoke. We assess that OC or CS was not used as security forces did not wear respirators, and protesters moving from the area showed no signs of distress.
Flash Report Assessment: From an international law standpoint, the determination of what happened and why will be critical to determine. The intentional bombing of a hospital is a war crime. But, war crimes investigations for an attack this egregious are not conducted on social media and concluded after 30 minutes.
The IDF has a documented history, particularly after 2005, of targeting civilians with increasing impunity within their judicial structure. Hamas has a decades-long documented history of using civilian infrastructure for military purposes and using civilians as human shields.
The IDF continued bombing campaigns despite growing pressure, including from its closest allies, such as the United States and the United Kingdom, to scale back their operations, has created an environment ripe for a civilian mass casualty event.
Hamas' cottage industry-produced rockets have a significantly higher failure rate than similar unguided rockets produced by dedicated arms manufacturers (regardless of nation).
We live in a world where the immediate assessment of blame is paramount, and Palestinian-Israeli history is extremely complex and polarized.
We're not sure if the explosion at the hospital is Cuban Missile Crisis or Arch Duke Franz Ferdinand bad, but in our assessment, the Middle East is now on the precipice of complete chaos that could quickly devolve into a regional war. If regional war were to erupt, there is a notable risk of it becoming a total war. Israel is a nuclear-armed nation, and Prime Minister Netanyahu has surrounded himself with ultranationalists and war hawks.
Opinion: Yesterday, while frustrated over the increasing amount of time being spent on trying to figure out the truth in the Israel-Hamas War, we were feeling somewhat optimistic that with water flowing, U.S. officials appearing ready to put direct pressure on the Netanyahu Administration to stop playing political games at the Rafah border, and Hezbollah and Iran defining their red lines for involvement, that the situation was starting cool.
Making a declaration, "but they have nukes," is a very slippery slope. Unlike Russia, which is not facing an existential crisis of its existence and uses "don't make us nuke you" as a tool to invade its neighbors, in a total war scenario, Israel could face an existential crisis of existence, surrounded by nations without a nuclear deterrent.
It is also important to note that Israel has never acknowledged it has a nuclear program and, unlike Russia and North Korea, has not used its almost certain nuclear capability as a blunt instrument of diplomacy.
The thing that will keep us at night, beyond 16-hour work days, is this. Benjamin Netanyahu is not John F. Kennedy, and Seyyed Ali Hosseini Khamenei is not Nikkita Krushchev. If there is a metaphorical adult voice in the Middle East, they need to stand up - now.
Comments
We liken it to an open barrel of gasoline. In theory, you can flip matches in it all day long (kids, don't try this at home) as long as their no vapor. The match will land in the gas and simply go out (kids, don't try this at home). But if there is enough vapor, it will ignite, creating more vapor, accelerating, and then...
Luke
This report speaks like there's a possibility of others entering the chat. I wonder who you think are the most likely to do this? Egypt and Syria are definitely not in any kind of place to even worry Israel in a conventional war and I really don't think Jordan cares? Iran is a likely possibility, but they don't share a land border and with the Gulf of Oman, let alone the Eastern Med bristling with NATO/Israeli allied warships I can't see them doing anything other than being a nuisance in the air beyond what they're already doing in support of HAMAS. But of course that's my armchair amateur hour thoughts. I can't keep help but thinking that this is being blown way out of proportion. I'm not forgiving or forgetting the body count from the initial attack last week, but aside from the odd tiny skirmish, what is even at further threat here for Israel? It just seems to me like a bloodlust vengeance at this point. I guess I've answered my own question. But I also may be missing some nuance or historical information on that.
You make an excellent point about Israel and it’s willingness to use Nukes. Though my fear isn’t Nukes, but what lengths the US will go through to avoid Israel using Nukes. Another US war in the Middle East?
