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UPDATED: Update Israel-Hamas - Russia-Ukraine from Jeff Davis
🕑 Added 2023-11-14 21:42:44 +0000 UTCRussia-Ukraine
Kharkiv: Ukrainian forces fully liberated Topoli after 21 months of occupation on the Russian border. We had considered the settlement liberated since November 2022. The flag-raising confirmed its liberation. It is unclear if this was a formality if the village was Russian-controlled this whole time or a no man's land.
Bakhmut: Russian forces have advanced along the Berkhivske Reservoir toward Bohdanivka over the last week. It appears Ukrainian forces have ended offensive operations on the northern flank of Bakhmut due to a lack of success over the last several months.
Avdiivka: Russian forces briefly occupied eastern Stepove, west of the Krasnohorivka Plateau, but were pushed back. Russian losses continued to be catastrophic, using human wave attacks with infantry in an attempt to saturate Ukrainian defenses. Russian forces were also pushed back from western Vodyane, away from Pervomaiske.
Vuhledar: Russian forces have ended attempts to advance on the Vuhledar mine complex north of Mykilske after suffering catastrophic losses.
Staromlynivka: Ukrainian forces have regained most of the lost positions north of Pryyutne. We're not adjusting the map as the line of conflict keeps moving in both directions, but the momentum favors Ukraine.
Orikhiv: Ukrainian forces have made marginal gains west of Verbove and west of Robotyne.
Kherson: Ukrainian forces now have three to five companies (500) of soldiers on the east bank of the Dnipro and Konka Rivers, including heavy equipment. Videos are showing that Ukrainian forces can move with little issue over the river and are taking advantage of dense fog to do troop rotations, resupply, and move the wounded. Ukrainian forces have full military control from the remains of the Antonovskiy Bridge to the remains of the Antonivskiy-Zaliznychniy Mist Railroad Bridge, south to the Konka River. Ukrainian forces also have physical control of the road between Oleshky and Krynky in two locations.
Ukrainian troops have military control of about 50% of Krynky, with fighting ongoing in the forested area south of the village. The remains of the Russian 810th Naval Infantry are now defending the area. We need to make adjustments to the map on the area of control due to better intelligence.
The Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) continue to bomb civilian areas on the west bank of the Dnipro River. Russian milbloggers claim that the Kremlin is making command decisions based on reports from senior leadership in the Dnipro Group, using maps that don't reflect reality. For this reason, requests for artillery fire missions and close air support from the VKS are being denied because Moscow does not believe Ukrainian forces have advanced over the Konka River.
Claims that Ukrainian forces have reached or are fighting within Kozachi Laheri and/or Oleshky are false. Fighting is ongoing on the edges or in Poima, Pishchanivka, and Pidstepne.
Updated: After we compiled this update, the Office of the President of Ukraine confirmed that Ukrainian forces have established a bridgehead on the left bank of the Dnipro/Konka River.
Neither Kyiv nor Moscow have officially acknowledged any fighting east of the banks of the Dnipro or the Konka.
Crimea: Russia withdrew its Mig-31Ks from Crimea after claiming they would be used to interdict cargo ships sailing to Odesa ports. Ukraine sank two smaller landing ships using uncrewed surface vessels. One Project 11770 Serna Class and an additional Project 1176 Ondatra Class landing ship were destroyed, with the older Ondatra Class vessel going to the bottom almost immediately after being hit. Both are litoral landing craft capable of carrying a single main battle tank (approximately 50 tonnes of capacity).
United States National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said on Sunday that each week that goes by with no aid package for Ukraine makes it that much harder to provide future aid.
F-16 training of Ukrainian pilots in Romania has still not started but should being "within a few weeks."
The United States government is facing a full shutdown due to the continued budget impasse on November 17. This will have a further negative impact on Ukraine's war effort. One small example is ongoing F-16 pilot training in Arizona will be suspended. New Speaker of the House, Mike Johnson, is reportedly working with Democrats to create a stop-gap package that will provide no funding for Ukraine or Israel, which will likely lead to GOP hardliners moving to vacate the Speaker for the second time.
The EU will not meet its self-imposed promise of one million artillery rounds to Ukraine by March 2024.
The Chief of Staff of the Russian 810th Guards Naval Infantry was killed on November 8 and buried at sea on November 13, according to Russian sources.
Russia has started to target Ukrainian electrical infrastructure with drones and missiles, but power outages have been short - for now.
Israel-Hamas
Israeli forces have occupied the Rantisi Hospital for Children in Gaza, where guns, RPGs, suicide bomber vests, grenades, ammunition, and body armor were found in the basement. While the Geneva Convention provides specific and broad protection to hospitals, those protections are lifted if the facility is used to store weapons, serve as barracks for unwounded soldiers, or used as a firebase or to launch attacks.
Geolocated and date-confirmed drone video shows that Hamas is using the Al Quds Hospital to launch attacks. At the time of publication, the IDF made renewed claims that Al Quds Hospital had been evacuated and was being used as a military node by Hamas. The Palestinian Red Crescent Society countered the Israeli claims, saying no militants are using the hospital as a firebase and its evacuation was impossible due to ongoing fighting around the facility.
A doctor, speaking on condition of anonymity to prevent retribution, reported that approximately 650 patients, 500 healthcare workers, and 2,500 refugees remain at Shifa Hospital. This is a significant departure from claims made by the Gaza Health Ministry. The remaining patients are too sick to move on their own or require significant technical support. We cannot verify the claim.
The IDF has claimed that Hamas blocked an attempt to deliver diesel fuel to Shifa Hospital, another claim we can't verify. Doctor Ahmed El Mokhallalati at Shifa Hospital said the IDF left 300 liters of diesel fuel 2 kilometers from the sprawling compound, and said the IDF told officials to send ambulances in a green corridor to collect the fuel. Drivers reportedly refused, saying it was too dangerous. El Mokhallalati said that IDF tanks were only 100 meters from the hospital and wondered why fuel wasn't made available at that point. We cannot verify any of the claims.
Doctor Mokhallalati did appear to partially confirm the anonymous report of a partial evacuation of the hospital, claiming that "roughly" 700 patients and 700 staff members remained at the hospital and "thousands" of refugees. This also aligns with a United Nations report on November 14, which more closely aligns with the anonymous report.
Officials have released conflicting numbers of deaths among premature babies in the NICU due to a loss of power from two to ten - claims we cannot verify. United States President Joe Biden has expressed concern over the fighting around the hospital and called on the IDF to take additional steps to minimize casualties. The IDF reportedly has offered to deliver portable incubators and other transit equipment to support the infants. Once again, we cannot verify the claim.
Doctors Without Borders is claiming that snipers are firing on patients outside of the hospital and that it is too dangerous to go outside, countering the reportings of ongoing burials on hospital grounds. The group reported that three people were operated on with gunshot wounds in the last 24 hours but did not make any claims on who was targeting civilians.
We have significant questions about claims of the Shifa Hospital having lost all power, with a video on Monday showing operations being done by flashlight, but the same released video package showing power working in the emergency department and other areas of the hospital.
Intense fighting is occurring around Shifa Hospital, which is reportedly surrounded. Israeli troops are within sight of the facility although we cannot verify that tanks are within 100 meters of the hospital. Objectively, if tanks are that close, it would indicate that Hamas is using the hospital as a defensive node. Hospital officials claim they are digging a mass grave to accommodate 150 to 180 bodies in one of the hospital courtyards. The use of "martyrs" to describe patients at Shifa Hospital by director Dr. Midhat Abbas raises additional questions about impartiality and objectivity in ongoing reports, which we nor any other group can verify.
The European Union condemned Hamas for using hospitals as military bases and civilians as human shields, called for an immediate pause in hostilities, the establishment of protected green corridors, and the immediate release of all hostages.
As David reminds all of us, the truth matters, and there is significant fog of war coming out of Gaza with little to no independent verification. As a team (sorry, David - going rogue), we remain troubled by the significant number of civilian casualties and hope a full and fair investigation is done at the end of hostilities. In the last two weeks, the IAF has conducted 4,300 airstrikes to destroy Hamas military facilities and provide close air support. In comparison, the Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) carried out approximately 3,500 airstrikes in the first two weeks after February 24, 2022, over a much broader area in Ukraine.
The IDF has the Al-Shati Refugee Camp, which has long since become an urban district, in a technical encirclement. The IDF has also occupied the Gaza Parliament Building.
Accusations that the IAF used a Hellfire R9X air-to-surface missile to target a courtyard at the Shifa Hospital are false. The R9X, developed in 2017, has a steel or tungsten (depending on application) "warhead" in place of explosives, with six blades that open like fins as it reaches its target. There are no explosives. The blades do not fly off nor operate like a blender. The missile is designed to target an individual or a single unarmored vehicle, with an accuracy of one meter. It is specifically designed to minimize collateral damage and casualties. We evaluated the videos and concluded that the remains of a 155 mm illumination round struck the courtyard.
Accusations that the IDF is using "white phosphorus gas" in Gaza are also false. There is no such weapon system that produces "white phosphorus gas" in the IDF inventory. White phosphorus is not a chemical weapon nor considered a precursor under the CWC. The only potential violation of the CCCW is the use of white phosphorus specifically as an incendiary weapon directly targeting humans in a "civilian setting." The IDF has extensively used illumination and smoke rounds.
The IDF reported that a 19-year-old female soldier, Noa Marciano, who was taken hostage on October 7, has been killed. Hamas claims she was killed in an IAF airstrike, while the IDF claims she was executed. We cannot verify either claim beyond the soldier being taken hostage on October 7, and both Israeli and Hamas officials report she is dead. Marciano appeared in a Hamas propaganda video on November 13.
The United States Department of State confirmed that a 3-year-old American citizen is being held hostage. The child is an orphan, with officials confirming their parents were killed on October 7.
Qatar-based Al Jazeera claims that their news crew was targeted by the IDF while reporting from Yarun. One photojournalist was "lightly wounded," according to Al Jazeera. A group of roughly a dozen journalists were inspecting bomb damage when the attack happened. We condemn all attacks on journalists and maintain our position that combatants have a moral obligation to respect and protect the media in war zones. The Israeli Journalist Union called upon the IDF to protect journalists reporting in Arabic. "Every journalist, in every language, is entitled to full protection and the right to carry out their work safely, especially in wartime," the letter stated.
UNWRA made renewed claims that their relief operations would stop within 48 hours unless fuel is delivered to the Gaza Strip. Intelligence agencies from multiple nations support Israeli's position that Hamas has significant fuel reserves stored underground while simultaneously demanding that fuel be supplied for hospitals, water purification, and humanitarian aid distribution.
The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs reported up to 200,000 Gazans have fled to the south since November 5. Many are arriving "exhausted and thirsty." The OCHA report claimed that on the Salah Ad Deen Road green corridor, defended by the IDF, intense filtration was occurring at Wadi Gaza. Gazans moving south accused Israeli forces of making arrests, conducting strip searches, beatings, and firing upon some groups. No claims of extrajudicial executions or killings were made (not that it makes the situation any better). The UN did verify that the IDF appears to be honoring the green corridor, with operational pauses for fighting ongoing from 09:00 to 16:00 hours local time along the route.
115 trucks passed through the Rafah Border Crossing into Gaza, a record single-day number, but still well below the 400 trucks a day before the war started. Approximately 600 foreign nationals and dual-passport holders evacuated Gaza.
United States military bases in Syria and Iraq have been attacked up to 50 times since October 12, wounding at least 46 Americans. We are working on confirming there were fatalities in one attack on November 12. The United States Air Force continues to launch targeted and proportional attacks on Iranian-backed militants and their bases.
While skirmishes and harassment attacks continue on the United Nations 200 Blue Line border between Israel and Lebanon, there is no indication that Lebanese Hezbollah or supporting militia and terrorist organizations have the appetite to engage in a full-scale war.
The number of acts of violence conducted by Israeli settlers in the West Bank has declined significantly (almost to zero) after Israeli officials used anti-terror laws to detain several Zionist extremists. We have actively condemned these attacks by Israeli settlers.
Houthi rebels in Yemen had another intermediate-range missile intercepted outside of the atmosphere by Israeli air defenses.
The number of rocket attacks in Israel has declined sharply as the IDF penetrates deeper into Gaza and surrounds Gaza City. While the number of rocket attacks is down, they do continue. United States-based United Airlines reported they would restart commercial flights into Israel next week due to the improving security situation.
Calls to remove Prime Minister of Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu, are growing, with War Cabinet Minister Benny Gantz defending the embattled Israeli leader. Netanyahu is facing fresh accusations of undermining the judiciary despite the ongoing war and claims he has received classified documentation without clearance that could be used to target political enemies and critics at the end of the war. Netanyahu and his war cabinet have brushed aside requests, which are bordering on demands, not to engage in a long-term occupation of the Gaza Strip.
As previously noted, the United States government is facing a shutdown on November 17, and it is unlikely that Israel will receive additional military aid before the upcoming U.S. holiday season. The lack of action is also blocking humanitarian dollars for the Gaza Strip, Palestinians, and Israelis. Going rogue one more time, major hostilities may be over by the time Congress picks up the issue of military aid to Israel again.
David is back to work tomorrow and full coverage returns.
Comments
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Thanks Jeff for the update. Welcome back David hope the time away was helpful and healing. Don’t be afraid to do it again, or take more when you feel you need it.
Thank you!
