TheMalcontent
patreon
Update Russia-Ukraine War from The Malcontent
🕑 Added 2023-11-23 22:26:29 +0000 UTCIt is a federal holiday in the United States - Thanksgiving. Before the chorus of "take the day off" in the comments, Dr. Mrs. Malcontent had to work today, and half of the adult kid clan is sick, so you're getting a Jeff-style summary.
Kharkiv/Luhansk: The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported fighting north of Synkivka, and the Russian Ministry of Defense inadvertently confirmed they were pushed back from Petropavlivka, reporting Ukrainian forces were on the offensive near Vilshana. There were no reports of significant fighting in Luhansk.
Northeast Donetsk: The only reports of fighting were near Klishchiivka, with no change in the situation.
Southwest Donetsk: The Avdiivka area of operation continues to be the area with the most intense fighting, with Russia concentrating its combat power in the AO. There continue to be vague reports of fighting on the northwestern edge of Horlivka. Quick assessment - this is starting to feel like the start of the Kherson offensive on the left bank of the Dnipro/Konka Rivers. That is to say; there is a growing belief that there is more going on here than what is being shared.
From the Krasnohorivka Plateau on the north flank of Avdiivka, Russian forces tried to advance toward Novokalynove and were unsuccessful. They also continued their attempts to advance through the industrial district on the southeastern edge of Avdiivka - this is where the situation is the most difficult. Preliminary - Russian forces may have been pushed back further from Pervomaiske. We'll have geolocation information tomorrow, but we're optimistic.
More than 40,000 Russian soldiers have been committed to Avdiivka AO, which is very concerning. Long-time subscribers (almost two years ago!) may remember we repeatedly assessed that to encircle the Avdiivka salient, Russia would need to commit at least 50,000 troops. Unfortunately, our assessment that Russia is "all-in" to capture Avdiivka is accurate.
Heavy fighting continued on the western and northwestern edges of Marinka, with Ukrainian defenders fighting like the legendary cyborgs at the Donetsk International Airport.
Zaporizhzhia: The only fighting reported was west of Robotyne. There are no changes.
Kherson: No change.
Other News: Serhii Lysiuk, world kickboxing champion and Ukrainian solider, died on November 22 due to injuries he sustained in "the Donbas" on November 12. Lysiuk lost his leg in a landmine explosion and died from complications caused by the primary injury.
Russia bombed a civilian area of Chornobaivka, northwest of Kherson, using cluster munitions, killing three people.
A bomblet from a Russian 220 mm Smerch rocket cluster munition in Neterianka, Zaporizhzhia, killed a 52-year-old civilian foraging for mushrooms. The area where he and his friend were foraging was reportedly covered in unexploded ordnance, making the extraction of his body difficult.
Polish organizers carried out their threat to block the Medyka-Shehyni, essentially closing all crossing into Ukraine where trucks over 7.5 metric tons (tonnes) can cross. Currently, 4,000 trucks are blocked from entering, including trucks hauling humanitarian aid from the Red Cross, perishable medical supplies and food items, and fuel.
The G7 nations and North Korea condemned Russia, with accusations that Moscow assisted North Korea in the development and launch of the country's first spy satellite.
Comments
I am talking to people about Dutch politics - this is between assessment and hot take - an informed hot take? It is very unclear if the PVV will be able to create a coalition. Moving to assessment. What we see on the Polish and Slovak borders, disinformation about the Hungary-Ukraine border being mined, the burning of Qa'arans to raise outrage in the Nordic nations, Hungary blocking Sweden's accession into NATO, and the Dublin riots is continued and organized political interference by Moscow in European affairs. That isn't meant to say it is all Russia's fault, but there are strong connections to the ongoing protests in Poland, the inflammatory protests earlier this year in the Nordic countries, and election interference in Slovakia that points to Moscow. Opinion: I'm quite horrified at the growing trend of absolutism in the information space in the United States. While some are saying it is only a fringe and it's being over-amplified, that is not what I'm seeing, and it's the same with other indie journos I'm talking to. It is becoming nearly impossible to have conversations or present information that has nuance and complexity. There are things that have happened in the last 60 days that appeared too organized and too orchestrated to have been 100% organic. Disinformation experts that I talk to share this same view. The maybe Osama bin Laden wasn't that bad is a good example of this. The current TikTok trend is North Korea isn't that bad is not an example of this. There has been a bizarre side on TikTok about North Korea almost since I was convinced to get on the platform in 2021. Extremism, absolutism, and political purity requirements only serve to divide. Frustrating times, especially for journalists who focus on nuance. I know several outstanding indie journos on the brink of quitting everything.
On the international scene, the election victory in the Netherlands of the 'Eurosceptic' PVV is no good news for Ukraine. When the PVV is able to be in a coalition government, there can be a turnaround in the Dutch position, as the PVV holds the geopolitical position of Hungary ( no weapons for Ukraine, no NATO membership)
