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Russia-Ukraine SITREP for 12 DEC 2023 23:59* PST - The Purge
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SITREP 557 is 66 pages and a full report.
What's Happening
Editor's Note: When we say, "as long as it takes," we mean it. As you process the major setback today, remember that Ukraine beat back the Russian A team from Kyiv, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Sumy without broad support from the West. Realistically, there are going to be setbacks in the weeks and months ahead. We're already seeing this on the battlefield. But this is not the beginning of the end. It is the end of one chapter and the beginning of a new one. The Ukrainian military of December 2023 is much stronger than the military of December 2021. Yes, Russia is also stronger, but in different ways. So breathe. If you're all in like us, stick around because surprises can happen. We even have a good one to report today.
Now I'm going to bed.
What's the big story? The largest political purge in Russia since Stalin continues with a shocking number of arrests in the last 24 hours.
What's the second story? Ukrainian forces launched a surprise attack and now occupy part of Horlivka.
What's the bonus story? Vlad the Impaler Putin got a wonderful Christmas present.
Summary
- There are map updates
- The theaterwide map was updated
- There are assessment updates
- There are rumor updates
- Fighting continued in the Kupyansk AO of Kharkiv and the Kreminna AO of Luhansk
- In the Bakhmut AO, Russian forces continued attacks on Bohdanivka
- In southwestern Bakhmut, Russian forces suffered heavy casualties
- In the Klishchiivka AO, Russian forces made additional gains northwest of Klishchiivka
- Ukrainian forces launched a surprise point attack and liberated part of northwestern Horlivka
- United States intelligence estimates Russia has last 13,000 troops since October 10 in the Avdiivka AO
- Fighting continued north, west, and south of the Krasnohorivka Plateau
- Fighting continued near the Avdiivka Coke Plant and in the industrial district
- Russian forces continued subordinate attacks on the south flank of Avdiivka
- Russian forces captured the western part of Marinka
- Russian forces continued attacks south of Novomykhailivka
- Fighting continued south of Orikhiv in Zaporizhzhia, with Russian forces making marginal gains west of Robotyne
- On the left bank of the Konka River, fighting continued in Krynky
- Odesa was attacked twice by Shahed-136 one-way drones, causing damage and casualties
- Kyiv was attacked by ten SRBMs, causing significant damage in the Dnipro District, wounding 53
- A Russian cyberattack knocked out the air raid warning system in Kyiv before the attack
- The GUR knocked the Federal Tax Service of Russia offline and reportedly wiped out all tax records
- Partisans in the Krasnodar Krai region of Russia sabotaged railroad infrastructure
- Russian hackers severely damaged the Kyivstar cellular and Internet network, knocking out service to 25 million customers for up to five days
- The cyberattack also impacted Vodafone and Lifecell networks in Ukraine
- Russia launched a DDoS attack on Monobank
- Access to PrivatBank ATMs was limited due to the Kyivstar cyberattack
- Ukraine continues to build echelon defense “in the threatened directions”
- The U.S. Department of Defense reprimanded 15 non-commissioned and commissioned officers over the classified documents leak committed by Jack Teixeira
- Ukrainian President Zelenskyy dismissed calls for a territory for peace deal
- Ukrainian GDP is growing at a torrid pace while inflation continues to drop, according to the IMF
- Polish truckers completely blocked the Korchova-Krakowiec border checkpoint
- In 2023, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have taken delivery of 30 internally produced 155 mm SPGs
- Ukraine received four Gurkha armored ambulances
- The Swiss company Global Clearance Systems committed to delivering 70 demining machines in 2024
- The Czech Republic has authorized licenses to buy up to 4.7 billion euros of weapons and ammunition for Ukraine
- Finnish officials confirmed they were doubling artillery ammunition production and would support Ukraine into the 2030s
- Hungarian officials said they would stop blocking 50 billion euros of aid to Ukraine if the E.U. releases 30 billion euros of frozen Hungarian funds
- U.S. House and Senate leaders rejected global and White House appeals to authorize additional military aid for Ukraine in 2024
- The United States announced a $200 million military aid package for Ukraine, noting it is the second to last one that will be delivered
- Newly minted Prime Minster of Poland, Donald Tusk, appeared to blast the United State’s decision
- U.S. intelligence estimates that since February 24, 2022, 315,000 Russian soldiers have been killed in combat
- Russian Purge Phase II – all in the last 24 hours
- The Russian state Duma passed legislation making it illegal to discredit the Russian National Guard
- Former Putin rival and political prisoner Alexei Navalny has been missing for a week
- A former campaign volunteer for Navalny has been arrested by the FSB, accused of bomb-making
- The FSB arrested activist Irina Izmailova, accusing her of bomb-making
- The Ministry of Internal Affairs arrested Activist Andrei Yastrebov for hooliganism, and it is expected he will be charged with extremism
- Russian prosecutors have filed new charges against activist, journalist, and author Alsu Kurmasheva for spreading fake news
- The FSB arrested the former Minister of Industry and Trade of the DNR, the former mayor of occupied Makiivka, the head of the Donetsk Industrial Company, and numerous associates
- The FSB arrested Crimean Tatar activist Imam Ismail Yurdamov
- The FSB searched the home of Crimean Tatar activist Rustem Mustafayev
- The body of the deputy editor-in-chief of Russian state media agency Komsomolskaya Pravda was found dead in her home
- The Ministry of Internal Affairs raided the Romani village of Verkhnie Oselki in the Leningrad region, arresting 50 and issuing summons for conscription to 35 people
- President Putin signed a law ratifying the creation of joint combat training centers with Belarus
- And in other news
- Russian missile attack damages a Kyiv children’s hospital
- Russian officials are conducting filtration exercises in occupied Melitopol and Pohohy
- The organizer of the Polish border blockade, Parliament Deputy Grzegorz Braun, thinks its December 1940
- Austria announced it is not ready to support E.U. accession negotiations with Ukraine
- Slovakia announced it does support E.U. accession negotiations with Ukraine
Where's the damn podcast?
That is 100% on me. I am steadfast in no more work after 01:00 hours local time, and yesterday's SITREP wasn't complete until shortly after 01:00 hours. That means no one to sign off on the script. Working on a solution. The challenge is as more and more OSINT accounts give up, get deleted by social media, or are canceled for the right or wrong reasons, the intelligence gathering for us keeps getting longer and longer. Israel-Hamas has not been an issue for the last week due to the cease-fire.
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Comments
It is 315,000 casualties not dead. Now, given that Russia does not treat their wounded well, it might be close to the same thing.
There have been Republicans calling for the Biden administration to provide ATACMS and F-16s since very early in the war. In a 24 October, 2022 letter to President Biden 30 members of the Democrat's progressive caucus called for a “proactive diplomatic push, redoubling efforts to seek a realistic framework for a cease fire.” The progressive caucus rescinded their letter a few days later after a public outcry. The progressive caucaus is strongly opposed to border security and members of the progressive caucus have accused Isreal of genocide. They almost certainly are not fans of the aide bill being proposed. One interpretation of events is that Republicans are forcing President Biden to choose between Ukraine and the priorities of the Democratic progressive caucus. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/10/25/democrats-ukraine-letter/
AnaR737
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/12/12/fiona-hill-ukraine-putin-00131285 Is anyone even paying attention about what will happen if we let go of Ukraine? In my work I interact with the same people every day and we do not talk about Ukraine, so I really have no sense of what the "mood" is. Is it true that for Congress Republicans it is more important to humiliate Biden than to sustain America's standing in the world and its national security? Has it come to this?
