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Russia-Ukraine SITREP for 13 DEC 2023 23:59* PST - Putin Understands Weakness
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SITREP 558 is 63 pages and a full report.
What's Happening
Editor's Note: It's worth repeating. When we say, "as long as it takes," we mean it. As you process the major setback from yesterday, remember that Ukraine beat back the Russian A team from Kyiv, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Sumy without broad support from the West. Realistically, there are going to be setbacks in the weeks and months ahead. We're already seeing this on the battlefield. But this is not the beginning of the end. It is the end of one chapter and the beginning of a new one. The Ukrainian military of December 2023 is much stronger than the military of December 2021. Yes, Russia is also stronger, but in different ways. So breathe. If you're all in like us, stick around because surprises can happen.
Now I'm going to bed.
Content Warning: Today's SITREP contains a detailed account and video of a grave breach of the Geneva Conventions by Russian troops. If you find this content upsetting, we recommend you skip the War Crimes and Human Rights section.
What's the big story? A day after the United States deadlocked on aid for Ukraine, Russia launched the largest drone strike on Odesa since September 2022, including the Danube River Ports. No, we don't think it's a coincidence because Putin understands weakness.
What's the second story? Russian forces continue to suffer catastrophic losses in the Avdiivka AO.
Summary
- There are errors and omissions in the Theaterwide section
- There are map updates
- There are assessment updates
- Ice storms in eastern Ukraine are causing significant problems in the occupied territories
- Fighting continues in the Kupyansk AO
- RMOD reported that Ukrainian forces attacked Yahidne
- Fighting continued in the Kreminna AO
- Ukrainian forces held back Russian attacks on Bohdanivka
- A geolocated video showed Russian forces have military control of the Litak region of Bakhmut
- Fighting continued in the Klischchiivka AO
- Fighting continued on the northwestern edge of Horlivka
- Fighting continued north, west, and south of the Krasnohorivka Plateau in the Avdiivka AO
- Russian forces suffered catastrophic losses east of Stepove
- Fighting continues in the industrial zone in southeastern Avdiivka
- Fighting continued on the south flank of the Avdiivka AO
- Russian forces made additional advances in northwestern Marinka
- Ukrainian forces have fallen back to defensive lines on the eastern edge of Novomykhailivka
- Fighting continued in the Orikhiv AO
- Fighting continued in and south of Krynky in the Kherson AO
- Russian launched the largest drone attack in the Odesa region since September 2022
- At least 20 drones targeted the Danube River ports with damage in Izmail
- Air raid alerts were issued in two Romanian regions for almost five hours
- Eleven people were wounded by falling debris in the city of Odesa
- One person wounded in the December 12 – 13 Shahed-136 attack on Odesa died of their injuries
- In the Belgorod region, two Russian government officials were severely injured by a landmine
- Unrelated to the previous bullet, the Freedom of Russia Legion reported successful military operations in the Belgorod region
- Russian officials report nine Ukrainian drones were shot down over the Moscow and Kaluga regions
- Ukrainian officials report that 41 of 42 Shahed-136 one-way drones were intercepted
- Russia issued a stern warning to Romania, Slovakia, Poland, and the United States about providing deeper assistance to Ukraine
- Russian hacker group Sontsepok claimed responsibility for the cyberattack on Kyivstar
- Russia may not be using subsonic missiles against Ukraine because of the effectiveness of air defenses
- President Zelenskyy arrived in Oslo, Norway, for an unannounced summit with the Nordic nations
- If Iceland is not a Nordic nation, they were there too, and apologies in advance if we offended any Icelanders
- Over 4,300 trucks are stuck at the borders of Slovakia, Hungary, and Poland
- President Zelenskyy addressed his nation, urging them to continue the fight even if the world ends military support
- Germany confirmed that an additional Patriot air defense battery is in Ukraine and will be operational by December 31
- Norway is providing Ukraine with another NASAMS air defense system and other aid
- Norway committed to provide $1.8 billion in aid to Ukraine
- Denmark will announce a one-billion euro military aid package for Ukraine on December 14
- The final military aid package to Ukraine from the United States could be up to $1 billion
- NATO is increasing its 2024 military budget by 12%
- Four Russian mobiks played the game, let’s get drunk in a bunker and throw grenades at each other
- A former PMC Wagner Group penal mercenary was arrested for attempted murder
- The Putin Purge continues with another activist arrest and a journalist already in prison facing new charges
- The Kremlin has made over $2.5 million after taking over the African gold mining and oil interests developed by the defunct PMC Wagner Group
- A video showed Russian troops from the 76th VDV Brigade using Ukrainian POWs as human shields
- Russia has started filtration of Ukrainian passport holders and other dual citizens in the occupied regions of Donetsk and Luhansk
- Russia shelled the Beryslav raion with thermite
- Polish truckers tried to blockade the Yagodin-Dorogusk border checkpoint again were denied a permit and warned not to make further attempts
- The E.U. unfroze 10 billion euros of 30 billion earmarked for Hungary
- Slovakia confirmed it will not block E.U. negotiations with Ukraine
- Austria signaled that it would not block E.U. negotiations with Ukraine
- Spain indicated they supported negotiations with Ukraine and hoped they would start before December 31
- Potential Dutch Prime Minister Geert Wilder distance himself from President Putin
- Prime Minister of Poland Donald Tusk fired the leadership of all Polish special security services
- U.S. Speaker of the House Mike Johnson refused to extend the ongoing Congressional session past December 15
- Got milk?
Where's the damn podcast?
That is 100% on me. I am steadfast in no more work after 01:00 hours local time (here it is 03:30 again), and yesterday's SITREP wasn't complete until after 05:30 hours. That means no one to sign off on the script. Working on a solution. The challenge is as more and more OSINT accounts give up, get deleted by social media, or are canceled for the right or wrong reasons, the intelligence gathering for us keeps getting longer and longer. Israel-Hamas has not been an issue for the last week due to the cease-fire.
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Comments
AnaR737
What summarizes today's report in a nutshell is the sentence: It appears Moscow believes the US is no longer interested in asserting its influence in the region. Now I know what it feels like to have egg on my face. What a disgrace. Aside from the awfulness of looking at Ukrainians in the face, it shows how the proper political center is being held hostage by radical wings of both parties. Not a good sign. Perhaps Putin was right after all...it is costly for him, but look at what he gains and what we lose. I hoped I would never see the day, but now I think I may.
