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Russia-Ukraine SITREP for 21 JAN 2024 23:59* PST - Russia Claims Ukraine Attacks Occupied Donetsk Civilians
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SITREP 585 is 58 pages and combat only!
What's Happening
What's the big story? Russia claims a Ukrainian attack on the occupied city of Donetsk killed 28 and wounded 30. But did it? We provide a very in-depth and technical analysis.
What's the second story? Ukraine has a new drone, and it's becoming a big problem for Russia
Bonus Story: Russia took advantage of improved weather and made several tactically significant advances as Ukraine struggles with personnel and ammunition shortages.
Summary
- There are map updates
- There are assessment updates
- There are rumor updates
- Fighting continued in the Kupyansk AO
- In the Svatove AO, Russian forces captured the village of Krokhmalne, Kharkiv
- Heavy fighting continued in the Kreminna AO
- In the Lysychansk AO, Russian forces suffered catastrophic losses attempting to advance on Bilohorivka
- the PMC Wagner mercenaries who broke up a drug trafficking ring on their own have been arrested
- In the Soledar AO, there is no evidence that Russia captured Vesele
- Fighting continued in the Bakhmut AO
- Russian forces made tactically significant gains between Ivanivkse and Klishchiivka
- Fighting continued in the Klischchiivka AO
- Fighting continued on the north flank of the Avdiivka AO
- East of Advdiivka, Ukrainian forces are closer to Kruta Balka than originally assessed, and the map was adjusted
- Reports of fighting west of the Avdiivka industrial district continued without evidence
- Russian forces advanced to 2 kilometers from Spartak into the southern part of Avdiivka
- Fighting continued in the Marinka AO
- Fighting continued in the Vuhledar AO
- In the Vuhledar AO, the VKS bombed Vodyane
- Russian state media and officials claim Ukraine attacked the shopping district of the Kirovsky District of Donetsk, killing 28 and wounding 23
- Our in-depth analysis of the attack based on extensive open-source evidence indicates it is very unlikely Ukraine did the attack
- Fuel depots and power infrastructure in occupied Donetsk and Makiivka were attacked, causing extensive damage
- Fighting continued in the Orikhiv AO
- Russian milbloggers report that Ukrainian drones have increased in range and improved resistance to EW
- The IAEA provided an update to the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, and it is alarming
- Fighting continued in the Kherson AO
- Another Russian unit appealed to Moscow to be relieved
- Russian units in the Kherson AO are faking attacks
- The Black Sea Fleet has missile carriers on patrol
- RMOD claims that missiles launched at occupied Sevastopol were intercepted
- A gunpowder factory in Tambov, Russia, was hit by a Ukrainian one-way drone
- A military-industrial plant in Tula, Russia, was hit by a Ukrainian one-way drone
- The Ust-Luga Oil Terminal in St. Petersburg, Russia, was hit by Ukrainian one-way drones, knocking the entire facility offline
- Ukraine has a new one-way drone, and it is very capable
- Russian air defenses in the Leningrad Region are stretched thin
- Russian attacked Ukraine with eight Iranian-sourced Shahed-136 one-way drones, and they were all shot down
- The Ukrainian Armed Forces crossed the grim milestone of 5,000 pieces of heavy equipment destroyed, damaged, abandoned, or captured since February 24, 2022
The podcast for January 19, 2024, is live.
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Comments
AR
This wouldn’t be the first time Russia has done this. Not surprised in the slightest.
AnaR737
After reading your analysis on the attack in Donetsk, I don't know if it is more frightening to think the Russian artillery made a terrible mistake or they actually wanted the missiles to fall on the market.
