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Russia-Ukraine SITREP for 25 JAN 2024 23:59* PST - Ukraine Gains in Zaporizhzhia and Surrounded Russian Troops???
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SITREP 589 is 58 pages, combat only.
What's Happening
What's the big story? Russian troops surrounded in southern Avdiivka? Ukrainian gains in the Orikhiv AO?
What's the second story? Continued updates on the crash of the Il-76 in the Belgorod region.
Summary
- There are map updates
- There are rumor updates
- Fighting continued in the Synkivka AO
- Fighting continued in the Svatove AO
- Fighting continued in the Kreminna AO
- Fighting continued in the Bakhmut AO
- Fighting continued in the Klishchiivka AO
- Fighting continued in the Avdiivka AO
- Russian forces suffered heavy losses near Stepove
- Russian stragglers in the southwest corner of Adviivka are surrounded as their salient collapses
- The Russian VKS pounded Avdiivka with airstrikes
- Russia is likely preparing another offensive push on Avdiivka, massing a new force of 40,000 troops
- Fighting continued in the Marinka AO
- Fighting continued in the Vuhledar AO
- Fighting continued in the Staromlynivka AO
- Rockets fired by HIMARS destroyed a Russian training base for drone operators in occupied Ilovaisk
- Fighting continued in the Orikhiv AO
- Ukrainian forces advanced northwest of Verbove
- An explosion near the train station in occupied Berdyansk was reported
- IAEA General Secretary Rafael Grossi provided an update on nuclear power facilities in Ukraine to the U.N. Security Council
- Fighting continued in Kherson AO
- The Russian LLS Olenegorskiy Gornyak has been partially repaired and is the Project 775 vessel that appeared in occupied Sevastopol
- Russian occupiers have announced new security measures between occupied Kherson and Crimea
- Two Shahed-136 drones hit a “business” near Kryvyi Rih, Dnipropetrovsk
- We have an update on the attack on the Russian refinery in Krasnodar Krai
- We have an update on the shootdown of the Russian Il-76 near Belgorod
- A Russian Kh-59 missile was shot down
- Pets will be allowed into all Ukrainian bomb shelters
- Two traitors were convicted for helping Russia attack power plants
- Turkey has approved Sweden’s accession to the NATO Alliance
- Hungary is prepared to vote on approving Sweden’s membership into NATO the week of February 15
- Ukraine will start construction on four new nuclear reactors at the Khmelnytskyi Nuclear Power Plant
- Putin allegedly wants to talk peace – again – allegedly
- Ukraine recovered over 35 million euros in funds after canceling a bad December 2022 contract for ammunition
- Ukraine is testing autonomous drones powered by AI
- Ukraine showed an uncrewed ground drone used to destroy a bridge in the occupied territories
- France provided Ukraine with two M270 LRU MLRSs
- The United Kingdom and Sweden joined Latvia’s Coalition of Drones
- U.S. Senators say that a border deal and Ukraine aid aren’t quite dead yet
- Estonia warned that NATO needs to rethink its war plans due to Russia’s expanding military-industrial capabilities
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Comments
That's the right question. And that's why "what's next" has become so difficult to assess. Without a clear 100% picture of Ukrainian military aid (which is gaining focus), it is near impossible right now to write even a 30-day outlook. Right now, things are in a stalemate of sorts - interestingly (it will be in SITREP; there is some Russian dooming going on as the Russian offensive is floundering. The dooming has more weight because its dangerous to publicly share reality.
Not a typo, there was a straw buyer and it was purchased by a Russian
I have just been sitting around the last month or so watching the fighting and noticed "not much has changed". Moving a battle line 1 or 2 miles in either direction does not really impact the overall strategy. If we go back to February 2022, almost 24 months ago, Russia was on the outskirts of Kiev and approaching Odessa. Now, most of all those Russian gains in early 2022 have been reversed. If we project fwd another 24 months, what will we see? The same situation as today? But how many Russians and Ukrainians will have died? Will the Ukrainians continue to build more and more drones and slowly kill off Russians trying to advance as dismounted infantry? Will Ukrainian drones gain greater range and accuracy? Will Russia do the same and slowly crush Ukraine? But from my safe perch here in America, all I know is that this war just increases Russia's demographic decline. In 2030, when the US completes its census, will we have 350 million citizens? Not likely but close to 340 million. Will Russia have 130 million? Probably. How long can Russia devote 30% of their economy to weapons production when they are losing lots of workers on the battle lines?
AnaR737
Is Bloomberg Russian owned? Or is that a typo? Also, I have absolutely no doubt in my mind by now that there were no POWs in that plane. Russia would have plastered the world with gory pictures and accused Ukraine even louder. As always, a couple of days make all the difference. Five bodies in the morgue, no pics, sketchy list put together by who knows who, etc. In fact, there were not many people in that plane, period. Unfortunately, it looks like there weren’t that many officials or Iranian advisers either, which is a pity.
