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Russia-Ukraine SITREP for 16 JAN 2024 23:59* PST - Russian Forces Suffer Catastrophic Losses Near Avdiivka
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SITREP 582 is 68 pages and a full report. 111 footnotes - a lot was going on.
What's Happening
What's the big story? Russian forces suffered major losses in the Klishchiivka and Avdiivka AO.
What's the second story? No one is saying the United States by name, but the chorus of voices that an unnamed someone needs to step up military aid for Ukraine is growing louder.
Summary
- There are map updates
- Fighting continued in the Kupyansk AO
- Russian missiles struck a Kharkiv apartment building and hospital, wounding 17
- South of Kupyansk, Ukrainian officials called for the evacuation of Kurylivka and Kivsharivka
- Fighting continued in the Kreminna AO
- Fighting continued in the Lysychansk AO
- Fighting continued in the Siversk AO
- Fighting continued in the Bakhmut AO
- Fighting continued in the Klishchiivka AO
- Russian forces suffered significant losses northwest of Klishchiivka
- Fighting continued in the Avdiivka AO
- Russian forces suffered catastrophic losses during a failed offensive from the approaches of the Krasnohorivka Plateau
- Five civilians agreed to be evacuated from Avdiivka
- Fighting continued in the Marinka AO
- Russian forces advanced north of Marinka in the direction of Krasnohorivka
- Fighting continued in the Vuhledar AO
- Russian forces shifted their attacks further south, trying to advance from Solodke and Volodymyrivka
- Fighting continued in the Orikiv AO
- The IAEA released an update on the status of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant
- Fighting continued in the Kherson AO
- A Russian milblogger reported that Russian troops are trapped on islands in the Dnipro River and suffering from cold weather injuries
- A point of invincibility was destroyed in Beryslav
- At least one Shahed-136 drone struck an apartment building in Odesa
- Russian officials claim two drones were shot down over Belgorod, Russia
- Over half of Russia’s districts are experiencing power, heat, sewer, or water outages
- Belarus would like to remind you they have nuclear weapons
- The U.N. General Secretary said he has a common goal with the U.S. to end the war in Ukraine
- Bloomberg, citing “anonymous sources,” claims that the U.S. has told Ukraine to end offensive operations and take up a defensive posture
- President Putin dismissed Ukraine’s peace plan as unviable
- The Russian Foreign Ministry said that negotiations with Ukraine would only happen if Kyiv agreed to completely unacceptable terms
- Campaign signs for President Putin in Moscow declare, “Russia’s borders do not end anywhere”
- Retired U.S. General Ben Hodges says Russia is not interested in peace talks
- The U.N. will provide Ukraine with $4.2 billion in humanitarian aid in 2024
- Dmytro Kuleba, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, called for the U.S. to provide additional military aid and vowed to fight with shovels if it was required
- European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen called for additional military aid to Ukraine
- U.K. Defense Minister Grant Shapps warned that the world is in a pre-war state
- France will provide Ukraine with 40 SCALP cruise missiles, hundreds of bombs, and security guarantees
- The first two of 14 Leopard 2A4 tanks purchased by Denmark and the Netherlands are ready to be shipped to Ukraine
- Latvia is working to build a coalition of 20 countries to produce drones for Ukraine
- Bulgaria reported its military-industrial systems were operating almost 24/7 to support Ukraine
- Germany called for an audit of E.U. military aid due to continued delays in promised support from numerous countries
- The German Bundestag will hold a floor vote on providing Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine
- The White House said it was expanding military-industrial production
- Secretary of State Blinken appealed for Congress to end its gridlock and pass a budget for Ukrainian military aid
- President Biden will meet with Congressional leaders on Wednesday to try and break the budget impasse
- Russian Colonel Serhiy Volkov was sentenced to 6 years in prison for buying electronic warfare equipment that doesn’t work
- Putin jumped into the culture war and unisex toilets
- Russian political activist Ekaterina Duntsova was detained by Russian police and tested for drugs
- Naked party attendee, rapper Nikolai Vasiliev, passed a second physical for military service after 25 days in jail and is Ukraine-bound in the spring
- 5,000 Russians protested in Bashkortostan in support of activist Fail Alsynov, with the FSB arresting dozens
- Russian journalist Evgenia Baltatarova was arrested in Kazakhstan trying to leave for France and will be extradited to Russia under the so-called “don’t say war” laws
- Deputy director of Vodokanal of St. Petersburg, Vadim Chernyshov, was arrested
- Former investigator of the FSB Investigative Directorate Alexei Kolbov, who joined the Russian military as a penal soldier, was killed in action
- Former chairman of the Russian Red Cross, Raisa Lukutsova, was found dead
- Former Russian State Duma Deputy Sergei Petrov will have his business taken over by the state and is accused of corruption
- Pro-Putin activist Olga Zinovieva demanded that the Investigative Committee and the State Duma check the Institute of Philosophy of the Russian Academy of Sciences for traitors
- The FSB raided a Kingdom Hall of Jehovah’s Witnesses in occupied Mariupol
- Polish truckers have ended their border protest
- Romanian farmers have ended their border protest
- The Prime Minister of Estonia warned Europe has 3 to 5 years left to prepare for war
- Hungary will face a vote on January 18 that could strip the country of its voting rights in the European Council
- Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico hinted he would block aid to Ukraine if Hungary losses its voting rights
- Moldova is experiencing a rush of Russians seeking citizenship
- During a speech in Iowa, Donald Trump appeared to call out Russian war crimes
- Russia has suspended moving oil to Novorossiysk due to a lack of storage and poor weather
- TotalEnergies, owned by France, China, and Japan, is withdrawing from the Russian Arctic LNG 2 project due to sanctions
- Equipment failure at one of Russia’s largest refineries has cut production of AI-95 and AI-98 gasoline in half
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Comments
When do catastrophic losses become the new normal for Russian losses?
The motion was rejected along party lines. The coalition stuck together. The main champion for the delivery of the Taurus, chairperson of the defense committee, Strack-Zimmermann (FDP/ the liberals) said it was pure party tactic and not the correct way, although she is for the delivery of the system.
I just researched the process for the motion of the CDU/CSU. Long story short: it could work, if Scholz shows some flexibility. Long story: CDU/CSU are the center right party group in the Bundestag that are the main opposition to the “Traffic light” coalition that is in government. In the opposition, the CDU/CSU can table a motion for a roll call vote (not secret) on the delivery of Taurus missiles. If the motions passes then there would be a vote, but the motion can first be sent to committee for deliberations. So, if the CDU/CSU could get some members from the parties of the governing coalition to vote with them, it could work eventually. But this requires a large number of defections, which Scholz and his cabinet could prevent by requiring party discipline. They could argue that it shows a crumbling coalition and or it is a risk to the security of Germany. Or they could say, ok, vote according to your conscience, in this case a number of Greens and Liberals may very well vote for the delivery of the missiles, even a few Social Democrats. And it probably would pass, in my opinion. So, it really comes down to whether Scholz, Habeck and Lindner decide their coalition would look too weak or this issue is far enough on the periphery that it won’t hurt their standing. Personal hot take, I think the coalition has more to win by allowing the vote. But the leaders of the three parties have repeatedly shown brittle inflexibility in such situations.
