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Russia-Ukraine SITREP for 26 FEB 2024 23:59 PST - Ukraine Continues to Fall Back From Avdiivka
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SITREP 611 is 65 pages long and a full report.
What's Happening
What's the big story? Russia is making significant gains west of Avdiivka due to critical ammunition and personnel shortages and inadequately prepared static defenses.
What's the secondary story? European leaders met to discuss how to support Ukraine better, but the biggest thing needed - ammunition - is nowhere in sight.
What's the bonus story? Constructing gulags, state control of factories, and arresting oligarchs. Putin's purge is plunging Russia into the abyss.
Today's Summary
- There are map updates
- There are assessment updates
- There are rumor updates
- Fighting intensified in the Kupyansk AO
- Russian attacked another grain storage facility near Kharkiv
- Fighting continued in the Kreminna AO
- Fighting continued in the Bakhmut AO
- Ukraine vowed that Russia would not have an “easy walk” to Chasiv Yar
- Fighting continued in the Klishchiivka AO
- Fighting continued in the Toretsk-Niu York AO
- Intense fighting continued in the Avdiivka AO
- Russian forces captured Stepove and advanced in the direction of Berdychi
- Russian forces were attacking Orlivka from three sides
- Russian forces, advancing from the east, captured Sieverne
- The situation in Tonenke is critical, with fighting in the village
- Publicly available satellite images show that Ukrainian static defenses west of Avdiivka are inadequate
- A second fuel depot in occupied Makiivka exploded
- Intense fighting continued in the Marinka AO
- Russia destroyed an M1A1 Abrams main battle tank
- Intense fighting continued in the Vuheldar AO
- Russia is continuing to build the Mariupol to Crimea railroad connection
- Fighting continued in the Hulyaipole AO – maybe
- Fighting continued in the Orikhiv AO
- Fighting continued in the Kherson AO
- ATESH claimed that significant numbers of “dark-skinned” mercenaries were being sent to occupied Kherson
- Russia bombed Yunakiv in the Sumy Oblast, killing two people as they slept
- Moldova denied that Russian drones flew over its airspace
- Multiple unnamed sources claimed that the illegitimate Republic of Transnistria would not request Russian annexation
- The hybrid warfare operation on the Polish border expanded to Germany and is poised to include Lithuania
- Polish truck drivers say they will join the protests on March 1
- The Lithuanian Association of Grain Producers said they do not support the Polish protests and will not participate
- Latvian officials call for the banning of Russian grain sold to the E.U.
- Russia said three people were killed in Belgord, neglecting to add the part where they were working on Russian military defensive structures
- Ukraine believes it can produce infantry mobility vehicles cheaper than importing from other providers
- Up to 20 nations, including Canada and the United States, participated in the Paris Summit to find more ways to support Ukraine
- Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and First Deputy Minister of Defence, Valery Gerasimov, graced the world with his presence
- Russia is projected to build 2.7 million artillery rounds in 2024
- Russia may have received up to 1.5 million artillery rounds from North Korea, but the failure rate is high
- Ukraine passed a law demobilizing conscripts
- People fighting in the ranks of the Foreign Legion of Ukraine and their families can apply for citizenship
- President Zelenskyy warned that without further U.S. aid, Ukraine won’t be able to defend itself
- Germany announced another military aid package
- Denmark announced it will provide Ukraine with infantry fighting vehicles and tanks
- France announced it would provide Ukraine with 250,000 fully autonomous one-way drones
- Hungary approved Sweden’s accession to NATO
- Candidate for Prime Minister of the Netherlands, Geert Wilders, said he now supports continued aid to Ukraine
- The Federal Chancellor of Austria called for Russia and Ukraine to open peace negotiations led by BRICS
- German Chancellor Scholz said Ukraine would not receive Taurus cruise missiles
- Zelenskyy asked France to provide Mirage 2000 fighter jets
- U.S. President Joe Biden is holding an emergency meeting with Congressional leaders to try and break the budget impasse
- President Putin signed a decree dissolving the Western Military District and restructuring the military
- Drunk Russian forces are shooting each other in occupied Luhansk
- A Russian soldier was too busy making a video for social media to notice the drone coming at his squad
- The T-62 tanks that were in occupied Yevpatoria have left by train toward occupied Kherson
- Russia has started construction of the first Stalin-style gulag in the Kaluga region
- The body of Alexei Navalny was returned to his mother, with a funeral planned for February 29
- GUR head Budanov said that Navalny died of natural causes
- Russian oligarch Yuri Antipov was arrested, and Moscow took full control of the Chelyabinsk Electrometallurgical Plant
- Russian journalist Oleg Orlov told a Russian court that the country had become a dystopia during his sentencing for spreading fakes about the Russian military
- Russia is weaponizing human rights watchdog organizations, as it accuses Ukraine of being non-responsive about the exchange of POWs
- German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock had to cut a visit to Mykolaiv short after a Russian drone chased her convoy
- Another warning that Europe is on the brink of a nuclear arms race
- Bulgaria ejected two Russian intelligence officers living under fake names
The podcast for February 26, 2024, is live.
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Comments
This opinion piece from the Wall Street Journal editorial board has me cautiously optimistic about the chances of the US providing additional aid before the election. Some highlights for readers due to the WSJ paywall: Reps. Brian Fitzpatrick (R., Pa.), Jared Golden (D., Maine), Don Bacon (R., Neb.) and others have introduced the Defending Borders, Defending Democracies Act that combines border security with weapons to allies. The bill includes roughly $47 billion for Ukraine priorities, down from about $60 billion in the bill that passed the Senate this month. The House lawmakers excluded the Senate’s $7.8 billion in government budget aid to Kyiv, which Ukraine’s critics portray as paying salaries for bureaucrats. One oddity is that the bill doesn’t appear to increase what’s called Presidential Drawdown Authority, which allows the Commander in Chief to hand over weapons to Ukraine quickly from U.S. arsenals. But the House bill is far preferable to consigning Ukraine to defeat, and Mr. Fitzpatrick and his colleagues deserve credit for attempting to overcome the blockade by the GOP’s isolationist wing at the urging of Donald Trump. Most Members would support aid for Ukraine if it reaches the floor—our sources say perhaps two-thirds. Speaker Johnson will have to reckon with this reality sooner or later, and bringing up this bill or something else on his prerogative is better than the alternatives. If he doesn’t, Republicans may join Democrats in signing a discharge petition, which allows 218 Members to go around a Speaker to bring a measure to the floor. That would make Mr. Johnson look weak and probably wouldn’t help him with his isolationist wing in any case. House Backbenchers to Ukraine’s Rescue https://www.wsj.com/articles/house-ukraine-bill-mike-johnson-defense-border-77e98d81
