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November 26th, 2024: Judge, Soto, Buehler, Non-Tenders, Walker, Mailbag
🕑 Added 2024-11-26 11:00:14 +0000 UTCReminder: I am skipping Friday’s post so I can take it easy the rest of this week and during Thanksgiving weekend. If there is breaking news, I will happily cover it, otherwise I’ll see you folks again next Tuesday. I hope you have a great Turkey Day. Here is the 2024-25 Offseason Plan in case you missed it, and here now is today’s post.
1. Judge named AL MVP. Once Shohei Ohtani bolted for the National League, it paved the way for Aaron Judge to dominate the AL MVP voting, and dominate he did. Judge won his second MVP in three years (it should be his third MVP, grumble grumble) last week and it was unanimous. Judge got all 30 first place votes, Bobby Witt Jr. got all 30 second place votes, and Juan Soto got 21 of 30 third place votes. (No Yankees received down ballot votes.)
“It means a lot,” Judge told Bryan Hoch about winning MVP. “A lot of the hard work in the offseason, during the season, the ups and downs throughout it. Just the constant support from my teammates, the fans in New York, just everybody to help me get to this spot … You’ve got to put in the work, continue to make changes, you’ve got to continue to try to improve yourself until they rip this jersey off of you.”
Here are the full voting results. Judge winning unanimously means he and Ohtani have still received every single first place AL MVP vote since 2021. You have to go back to 2020, the year José Abreu won the award, for the last time someone other than Judge or Ohtani got a first place AL MVP vote. Here’s a bit more on Judge winning MVP:
Judge is the sixth Yankee to win multiple MVPs since the BBWAA took over the voting in 1931. He joins Joe DiMaggio (1939, 1941, 1947), Yogi Berra (1951, 1954, 1955), Mickey Mantle (1956, 1957, 1962), Roger Maris (1960, 1961), and Alex Rodriguez (2005, 2007).
Judge and Mantle in 1956 are the only Yankees to win MVP unanimously. Two years ago Judge received 28 of 30 first place votes. Ohtani got the other two (from the two Los Angeles voters).
Judge and Soto are the first Yankees teammates to finish top three in the MVP voting since Mark Teixeira and Derek Jeter finished second and third behind Joe Mauer in 2009.
The Yankees have won 22 MVPs all-time, the most in history. The Cardinals are a distant second with 18 MVPs.
With Luis Gil winning AL Rookie of the Year, this is the sixth time the Yankees have won two of three major player awards. It also happened in 1951 (Berra MVP and Gil McDougald Rookie of the Year), 1954 (Berra MVP and Bob Grim Rookie of the Year), 1957 (Mantle MVP and Tony Kubek Rookie of the Year), 1961 (Maris MVP and Whitey Ford Cy Young), and 1962 (Mantle MVP and Tom Tresh Rookie of the Year).
Judge slashed .322/.458/.701 (218 wRC+) with 58 home runs this year and, by wRC+, it was the best season by a right-handed hitter in the Modern Era (since 1900). That happened even though Judge was sitting on a .197/.331/.393 (107 wRC+) line as late as May 2nd. He then hit .357/.492/.787 (249 wRC+) with 52 homers in 125 games the rest of the way. Five months with close to a .500 OBP. Insane.
After 2017, I wrote Judge just had the best season of his career. He would still be very good going forward, though maybe not that good. After 2022, I wrote okay, this was Judge’s career year. That was the best he could possibly be, right? Then 2024 happened. Even with his 33rd birthday coming up in April, I won’t put a ceiling on the guy anymore. Judge keeps closing holes in his game and getting better.
Judge had poor postseason (.184/.344/.408 and 113 wRC+) and he dropped the line drive that began the fifth inning meltdown in Game 5 of the World Series, so maybe that puts a damper on his MVP win, but eh, life is too short to be miserable about a play in a series the Yankees were going to lose anyway. For six months (okay, five), Judge was the most dominant offensive force outside of Barry Bonds that we’ve ever seen.
Bonds is all-time leader with seven MVPs and 11 guys are tied for second with three MVPs: A-Rod, Berra, DiMaggio, Mantle, Ohtani, Roy Campanella, Jimmie Foxx, Stan Musial, Mike Schmidt, Albert Pujols, and Mike Trout. Does Judge have two more MVPs in him? It’ll be tough, but it seems doable. Two more would make Judge the all-time leader in AL MVPs and possibly give him sole possession of second place all-time with four MVPs (I say possibly because Ohtani is still going strong).
The only thing missing at this point is a World Series ring. Judge will be eligible for the Hall of Fame ballot with one game played next year and I think he’s already in. The peak – .304/.433/.674 (202 wRC+) with 157 homers from 2022-24 – is historically great, and Judge still has plenty of time to add to his career totals. Despite not playing his first full season until age 25, he has a real chance at 500 homers (currently 315).
Judge must perform better in the postseason to get that World Series ring, yes, but he is only one player. Winning the World Series is a team accomplishment and Hal Steinbrenner, Brian Cashman, and the rest of the brain trust must improve the team around Judge. That includes re-signing the third place finisher in this year’s MVP voting, plus doing other stuff. Congrats, Judgie. The MVP was more than deserved.
2. Latest hot stove news and rumors. The Angels continue to be the most (only?) active team early this offseason. They signed Yankees nemesis Yusei Kikuchi to a three-year, $63M contract on Monday. Kikuchi has a career 3.38 ERA against the Yankees and a career 4.68 ERA against everyone else. The Yankees could still see him twice a year, though that’s better than potentially four times a year like when he was with the Blue Jays. Anyway, here are the latest hot stove happenings.
Obsessive Soto Watch
As far as I can tell, Juan Soto and Scott Boras have wrapped up their meetings with interested teams. What the next step is, I do not know. We’ll find out together. Here’s the latest on the Juan and only:
At their meeting, Hal Steinbrenner told Soto he would like to have the same relationship with him that he does with Gerrit Cole and Aaron Judge, and apparently that is important to Soto, per Jon Heyman. Soto wants a strong relationship with the owner wherever he goes.
During his MVP conference call, Judge said he hasn’t spoken to Soto this offseason but said he made it clear all summer he wants him back. He also doesn’t care if Soto makes more money than him. “I really don't care as long as we get the best players,” he told Max Goodman.
Teams involved in the bidding expect to begin forwarding offers this week, per Buster Olney. The first round of meetings were simply a chance to get to know each other.
Bob Nightengale says the Yankees have a number in mind they don’t want to exceed for Soto, and adds “one back-up plan floating around is signing free-agent first baseman Christian Walker, sign either Willy Adames or Alex Bregman to play third, shift Jazz Chisholm to second base, trade for Cubs center fielder Cody Bellinger, and then use the extra money to sign Burnes, Fried or Snell.”
I totally buy the “they have a number they don’t want to exceed” thing. Not wanting to exceed it and not willing to exceed it are different things, but honestly, I could see the Yankees setting a walk away number and sticking to it. I hope that’s not the case. Wouldn’t surprise me if it were though. As for the backup plan, I just do not buy the Yankees pushing their 2025 payroll through the roof if they miss out on Soto. Using MLBTR’s contract projections:
Plan A
Juan Soto: $46.2M per year
Plan B
Christian Walker: $20M per year
Willy Adames ($26.7M per year) or Alex Bregman ($26M per year)
Cody Bellinger: $32.5M in 2025
Corbin Burnes ($28.6M per year) or Max Fried ($26M per year) or Blake Snell ($32M per year)
The cheapest combination of players in Plan B adds $104.5M to the 2025 payroll, which currently sits at $235M. Maybe the Cubs eat some of Bellinger's money and maybe the Yankees unload salary elsewhere on the roster (Nestor Cortes? Jose Trevino?), but are the Yankees really committing that much to next year’s payroll? Payroll for the next 3+ years, really, because it’s not like Walker, Adames/Bregman, and one of the pitchers are signing one-year contracts. Those are long-term commitments.
Perhaps I have a bad read on things and the Yankees are planning to sign Walker and a pitcher even if they re-sign Soto, and Plan B is really just Adames/Bregman plus Bellinger. I dunno. That whole mess feels very “let Robinson Canó walk and then sign Carlos Beltrán, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Brian McCann” to me. A plan that sounds good at the time and eight months later Dr. Malcolm is looking at you like:
At the owners meetings last week, Hal told Bryan Hoch “we've got the ability to sign any player we want to sign,” and I’m tempted to take him at his word. If the Yankees don’t re-sign Soto, it’s because they didn’t want to re-sign Soto, and they believe whatever they do instead is the better series moves. They should be evaluated accordingly. Words have meaning! If the owner says he can sign any player he wants and one of the top free agents ever is out there, you better be sure you can land him.
Anyway, offers will reportedly begin rolling in this week, and I’m sure they’ll be leaked at some point. That’s just how it goes with Boras. He leaks everything. You’ll know we’re getting close to the finish line when we hear a Mystery Team has entered the mix and is making a late push. Dec. 11th. Wednesday of the Winter Meetings. That’s my guess when we get word Soto is signing with whichever team.
Yankees, Buehler have mutual interest
According to Jon Morosi (video), the Yankees and free agent righty Walker Buehler have “some mutual interest.” Buehler closed out the World Series at Yankee Stadium, and he threw five shutout innings against the Yankees in Game 3 as well. Methinks Buehler is using the Yankees as leverage to get a better deal from the Dodgers, but who knows. Maybe the interest is sincere on both sides.
Now 30, Buehler returned from his second Tommy John surgery this year and had a poor regular season, throwing 75.1 innings with a 5.38 ERA (5.44 FIP) and comfortably below average peripherals. His stuff was down too. Buehler went from a 117 Stuff+ in 2021 (last healthy season) to a 96 Stuff+ in 2022 (when his elbow began barking) to a 83 Stuff+ in 2024 (first year with his new elbow ligament).
Buehler was great in the postseason (he got charged with six runs in his NLDS Game 3 start, but you can blame the defense for that) and his stuff did tick up. Maybe it was postseason adrenaline, maybe it was getting further away from surgery, maybe it was something else entirely. Whatever it was, there was more sweep on his sweeper and more curve on his curveball in October (full-size image):
Buehler fits the “I don’t care if you only throw 100 innings, I’ll take them if they’re great” archetype that is increasingly popular. The Dodgers have built their rotation around those guys. The Rays too. Buehler was not great during the regular season, but he has been great in the past, and he’s shown he can handle a big market and big games. I can understand why the Yankees have interest.
FanGraphs and MLBTR both peg Buehler for a one-year, $15M contract. The Dodgers declined to make Buehler the qualifying offer, suggesting they don’t value him at $21.05M in 2025, so yeah, I guess one year and $15M makes sense. I guess the question is can the Yankees convince Buehler to leave the Dodgers for that contract. If the money’s equal, wouldn’t he just go back to Los Angeles? How much more should they be willing to pay to get him? I dunno.
I would prefer a starter you can more reliably count on to take the ball every fifth day, but a) there are not many of those guys and they tend to cost a lot, and b) I think Buehler’s the best of the one-year reclamation project starters this offseason. Guys like Matt Boyd, Alex Cobb, Charlie Morton, etc. Sign Buehler or any of those guys and you might just be lighting money on fire. I think Buehler has the best chance to make a real impact in 2025 though. It’s just a matter of being able to sign him away from the defending World Series champs.
“Speaking hypothetically, I don’t think you can ever have enough pitching,” Hal told Goodman last week. “We’re going to take a deep dive into the starting rotation, into the bullpen. We’ve been right in the middle of our free agent meetings, where we’re just going through every single player that’s out there. Then we start asking the hard questions and figure out how to improve.”
Notable non-tenders
62 players were non-tendered at Friday’s deadline, including Jon Berti and Tim Mayza (more on them in a bit). There is no Bellinger or Kyle Schwarber this year, that big name non-tender, though a few guys could interest the Yankees. Here are a couple who caught my eye.
RHP Kyle Finnegan: The Yankees had interest in Finnegan at the deadline. So did several other teams. The Nationals didn’t trade him and now they’ve non-tendered him, so let’s give that deadline decision an F. Finnegan is older than you think (33) and his underlying numbers are pretty meh. He was the closer on a bad team but fits better as a middle reliever on a contender. Finnegan is home run prone (1.29 HR/9 and 15.8% HR/FB since 2021). Homers and high leverage don’t mix.
OF Austin Hays: Hays has a history of hitting lefties (.276/.339/.448 and 122 wRC+ since 2022) and, at least prior to 2024, playing strong left field defense. The Yankees could’ve used someone like him as a platoon partner for Alex Verdugo this past season. Jasson Domínguez is much weaker from the right side of the plate and Hays would fit as a platoon partner even if the Yankees bring Juan Soto back. The downside is you’re using two of four bench spots on outfield only guys (Hays and Trent Grisham). You also have to convince Hays to take a part-time job at age 29. He’s surely looking for a starting spot. (Ramón Laureano is similar to Hays as a righty platoon bat. He’s just a year older. Connor Joe is a year older than Laureano and can also play first base.)
LHP Patrick Sandoval: Rather than pay their Opening Day starter a projected $6M or so to rehab from Tommy John surgery next year, the Angels non-tendered Sandoval. He had his surgery in late June, so chances are he’ll miss the entire 2025 season. But! But Sandoval will remain under team control as an arbitration-eligible player in 2026. You could sign him, stash him on the 60-day injured list while he rehabs, then see where he’s at leading into 2026. You don’t have to give him a two-year contract. The second year is built in (that said, the second guaranteed year is what could win the free agent bidding). Sandoval is still only 28 and he has a history of good ground ball rates and suppressing exit velocity. The Yankees are into guys like that.
2B Brendan Rodgers: Rodgers, the No. 3 pick in the 2015 draft, has hit .270/.321/.421 (91 wRC+) the last four years. He’s got some pop, his top end exit velocities are sneaky good, but he’s also got a career 53.2 GB%. It was 56.1 GB% in 2024. It’s hard to be an above average hitter when you put the ball on the ground that much. Rodgers owns one of the most extreme outlier defensive seasons in recent memory. One of these things is not like the others:
If the Yankees believe the still only 28-year-old Rodgers is truly a +22 DRS defender at second base, and believe they can get him to elevate the ball more, then yeah, I could see them bringing him in as their Gleyber Torres replacement. I am curious to see what Rodgers can be in a competent organization, though I can’t say I would love it if the Yankees sign him to be the undisputed guy at second base.
RHP Jordan Romano: The Blue Jays non-tendered their closer rather than may him a projected $8M or so. Romano did not pitch after May 29th this year and had arthroscopic elbow surgery in June. He was expected to return late in the season, though that didn’t happen. The non-tender indicates the Blue Jays don’t feel great about Romano’s elbow, so maybe don’t be surprised if he’s still sitting out there unsigned in February. (Gregor Chisholm said the Blue Jays didn’t even discuss a contract with Romano before the non-tender.)
Miscellany
Roki Sasaki is expected to be part of the 2025 international signing period, Rob Manfred said at the owners meetings last week. “It looks like the signing there will happen in the new pool period,” Manfred told Evan Drellich. Here are the 2025 bonus pools. The Yankees have a $6,261,600 pool and can trade for an additional 60%, so their max bonus pool is $10,018,560. But again, money is not Sasaki’s top priority. He wouldn’t be coming over now if it was. Waiting until the 2025 signing period opens on Jan. 15th will net Sasaki (and thus the Chiba Lotte Marines) a little more cash, though I don’t think it’ll change the race. I think it’s 97% Dodgers, 2% Padres, 1% everyone else … And finally, the Yankees were among the teams to scout Jonathan Loáisiga’s recent throwing session, reports Mark Sanchez. Loáisiga had his UCL repaired in April and is playing catch at 90 feet right now. The hope is he’ll be able to throw bullpens in January. The Yankees scout everyone, they’re always at these “rehabbing pitcher showcases himself for scouts” events, so I wouldn’t read too much into them watching Loáisiga. This is due diligence. That said, I would be cool bringing Loáisiga back on a minor league deal, or even a Lou Trivino-esque low base salary one-year deal with a club option for 2026. Stash him on the 60-day injured list while he rehabs and hope he can help you later in the year.
3. Latest roster moves. The qualifying offer decision and Rule 5 Draft protection deadlines were early last week, then the non-tender deadline came and went Friday evening. Who decided to set the deadline at 8pm ET on a Friday? Come on man. Anyway, here is the Yankees’ non-tender deadline activity.
Berti, Mayza non-tendered
As expected, the Yankees non-tendered Jon Berti and Tim Mayza prior to Friday’s deadline. Both were projected for salaries in the $4M range and that’s too much for a utility guy who’s hurt frequently and a low leverage lefty. The Yankees don’t have a single lefty reliever on the 40-man roster and I could see them bringing Mayza back at a lower salary ($2M?). Berti may be beyond his usefulness at this point though.
Berti and Mayza were the only non-tenders. All the other arbitration-eligible and pre-arbitration players are still with the Yankees. That is somewhat notable because it indicates Nestor Cortes is in a good place with his flexor strain. He was healthy enough to pitch in the World Series, though Nestor acknowledged he was still at risk of (presumably) blowing out and needing Tommy John surgery.
“We have weighed the consequences this can lead up to, but if I have a ring and then a year off of baseball, then so be it," Cortes said during the break between the ALCS and World Series.
The Yankees would have non-tendered Cortes if he’d made the injury worse by pitching in the World Series and was at risk of surgery. They wouldn’t pay him close to $8M to rehab next year, and walk him right to free agency. So, in a way, Cortes being tendered a 2025 contract is a good sign for his health. The Berti and Mayza non-tenders get the Yankees down to 35 players on the 40-man roster.
Brubaker, Grisham sign pre-tender deals
There are always a few “pre-tender” signings at the non-tender deadline, where the team uses the threat of a non-tender to get the player to sign a contract below projections. The Yankees did that with JT Brubaker and Trent Grisham. Ron Blum says Brubaker signed for $1.82M (projected $2.275M) and Grisham signed for $5M (projected $5.7M). Grisham gets an additional $50,000 each for 350, 400, 450, 500, and 500 plate appearances. He got only 209 plate appearances in 2024.
I am interested to see what Matt Blake and pitching folks cook up with Brubaker, who the Yankees picked up from the Pirates in March. He’s a sinker/slider guy, which is right up Blake & Co.’s alley, and he also throws a curveball, a changeup, and a four-seamer. Brubaker has long been lauded for his command too. The just turned 31-year-old missed 2023 and 2024 with Tommy John surgery and an oblique strain. I think Brubaker has a chance to be a surprise contributor in 2025, even if only as a reliever.
As for Grisham, I’m glad the Yankees kept him because the center field depth chart is paper thin, and there isn’t much to see in free agency. Here are the top center field capable free agent outfielders by projected 2025 WAR:
1. Harrison Bader: +1.3 WAR
2. Dylan Carlson: +0.7 WAR
3. Enrique Hernández: +0.5 WAR
4. Michael A. Taylor: +0.3 WAR
5. Travis Jankowski: +0.2 WAR
Grisham’s a top notch defender and he can put a mistake in the seats. You can’t ask for much more than that from your fourth outfielder. Maybe the $5M salary is a bit pricey, but I think it’s okay to overpay a bench guy who plays a premium position when there are few viable alternatives in free agency. I mean, do you non-tender Grisham so you can maybe save $2M with Carlson? Eh. Just keep the guy you know.
The arbitration filing deadline is Thursday, Jan. 9th. That’s when the rest of the arb-eligible guys (Cortes, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Scott Effross, Mark Leiter Jr., Clarke Schmidt, Jose Trevino) will sign. Chisholm went to an arb hearing with the Marlins last year, though that seems like a Marlins thing, not a Jazz thing. Miami went to hearings with Chisholm, Luis Arraez, and Tanner Scott last year. The Yankees haven’t been to a hearing since Dellin Betances in 2017. I don’t anticipate it happening this winter.
17 become minor league free agents
Several hundred players became minor league free agents five days after the end of the World Series, including more than a dozen Yankees. Here are this offseason’s batch of minor league free agents:
Catchers: Juan Crisp
Infielders: Max Burt, Jahmai Jones, Anthony Seigler
Outfielders: Greg Allen, Oscar Gonzalez
Righties: Yorlin Calderon, Yoljeldriz Diaz, Joey Gerber, Trevor Kirk, Jesus Liranzo, Anderson Munoz, Brett Phillips, Cody Morris, Matt Sauer
Lefties: Michael Giacone, Thomas Pannone
Couple longtime organizational soldiers in there, including Burt, a 2018 28th rounder. He’s a .220/.287/.345 (77 wRC+) hitter in over 1,800 minor league plate appearances, though if you follow Double-A Somerset and Triple-A Scranton on social media, you know he’s a human highlight reel. Tremendous defender and slider. Here are a few top plays. Good org guy, Burt was.
Morris is the guy the Yankees got in the Estevan Florial trade with Cleveland. He was my No. 28 prospect before the season. Neither team won that trade (Florial’s a minor league free agent too). Sauer was the No. 54 pick in the 2017 draft. The Yankees took Schmidt with the No. 16 pick, paid him a below slot $2.18M bonus because he’d just had Tommy John surgery, and gave the savings to Sauer ($2.5M bonus). That one didn't work out.
(The Royals gave Sauer a look as a Rule 5 Draft pick this past season and he was terrible: 16.1 IP, 23 H, 14 R, 11 BB, 9 K, 3 HR in MLB. He was returned to the Yankees in May.)
Calderon and Diaz had some prospect shine once upon a time, though neither took a step forward (Diaz had injuries too), and they stalled out. Kirk was the Yankees’ 20th round pick in 2022. He never threw a professional pitch. Got hurt soon after being drafted and never took the mound. Phillips is the former outfielder. He became a pitcher this year, the Yankees gave him a look, and his only appearance went terribly.
The Yankees took Seigler with the No. 23 pick in the 2018 draft. He had injuries early in his career and never really hit, and eventually moved from catcher to second base. Seigler (Brewers), Jones (Tigers), and Pannone (Brewers) have already signed with new teams. That’s about it for this year’s minor league free agents. Seigler and Sauer are the notable names given their draft pedigree.
4. Scouting the Free Agent Market: Christian Walker. With or without Juan Soto, the Yankees must do something about first base this offseason. Their first basemen slashed .216/.284/.355 (76 wRC+) with 16 home runs and at best average defense (-2 DRS and +0 OAA) this year, and at times the glovework was well south of average. It added up to -1.0 WAR at first base. Only the Reds (-1.3 WAR) were worse.
(I know I’ve said this a thousand times, but the Yankees did not get a single home run out of their first basemen after July 31st. July 31st! Not one homer from a first baseman in the final 66 games of the year, postseason included. Good grief.)
The Yankees declined Anthony Rizzo’s $17M club option and the current first base depth chart is whatever DJ LeMahieu has left in the tank, Ben Rice, and Oswaldo Cabrera in some order. What the order is exactly, I don’t know, but I don’t think it matters. It’s not good in any order. First base is in obvious need of an upgrade and it’s a chance to add a significant bat to the lineup.
Enter Christian Walker, most recently of the Diamondbacks. Walker is the second best first baseman on the free agent market behind Pete Alonso, and he’s coming off a .251/.335/.468 (119 wRC+) line with 26 home runs in 130 games this past season. Offensively, Alonso and Walker have similar numbers the last two seasons (they’re both right-handed hitters):
Alonso 2023-24: .229/.324/.480 (121 wRC+) with 36 HR per 600 PA
Walker 2023-24: .254/.334/.484 (119 wRC+) with 29 HR per 600 PA
Alonso is 3.5 years younger than Walker and he played his home games in a more pitcher friendly park, so it’s fair to say Alonso is the greater power threat and a safer bet to remain a productive hitter the next few years. Walker is not just some consolation prize though. He’s a good hitter and a great defender, and I bet he signs before Alonso anyway. Maybe Alonso’s the real consolation prize?
The Yankees are said to have interest in Walker and I don’t know if this is a Soto and Walker situation, or a Soto or Walker situation. It could be Walker is part of their Plan B in the event Soto goes elsewhere. Either way, he’s worth looking into. Let’s dig into Walker’s game and see what’s what.
Background
Walker first made a name for himself as a Philadelphia area high schooler when he beat Bryce Harper in a showcase event home run derby at Tropicana Field in 2009. He played his college ball at South Carolina and was a fourth round pick by the Orioles in 2012. Walker made his MLB debut with Baltimore in Sept. 2014 and was an up/down guy stuck behind Chris Davis (when Davis was good) the next few years.
The Orioles DFAed Walker after acquiring Richard Bleier from the Yankees in Feb. 2017. He bounced from the Orioles to the Braves to the Reds to the D'Backs on waivers over the next 32 days. Walker was an up/down guy with Arizona from 2017-18. It wasn’t until Paul Goldschmidt was traded to the Cardinals that Walker got his first extended MLB opportunity in 2019, his age 28 season.
Offense
Walker has your standard cleanup hitter profile. Analytical models love him because his swing decisions are very good, as are his top end exit velocities. Walker hits the ball hard and he also gets the most out of his power because he pulls the ball in the air a ton. He’s had a sub-40% ground ball rate the last four years and a pull rate north of 40% each of those same four years. That’s a good combination.
Here are Walker’s percentiles. The man swings at strikes, hits the ball hard, and hits it in the air:
As a pull happy right-handed hitter, Walker will not get any help from Yankee Stadium’s short right field porch. Only 15 of his 105 home runs the last four years were to the opposite field, and it’s not like he’s hit a bunch of balls the other way that would have been gone at Yankee Stadium. Walker just doesn’t use right field all that much. His swing is geared toward elevating the ball to the pull side. It’s not a Yankee Stadium swing.
And that’s fine! Yankee Stadium can be tough on right-handed hitters, especially Death Valley in left-center field, but Walker has enough power to live in the big park of the ballpark. There is more to life than Statcast, I know, though their expected home run data says Walker would have gained a few dingers had he played in Yankee Stadium rather than Chase Field (a pretty good place to hit) the last few years.
I’ve seen it said in a few places that Walker has shown no signs of decline, and while it’s true his surface stats and underlying contact quality/place discipline numbers have held steady, there are some red flags. Right out of the gate, Walker’s strikeout rate jumped five percentage points in 2024. He went from a 19.6 K% in 2022 to a 19.2 K% in 2023 to a 24.1 K% in 2024. That’s a pretty big strikeout rate jump.
Largest K% increase from 2023 to 2024 (min. 500 PA both years)
1. Gleyber Torres: +5.9% (14.6% to 20.5%)
2. Rafael Devers: +5.3% (19.2% to 24.5%)
3. Seiya Suzuki: +5.1% (22.3% to 27.4%)
4. Christian Walker: +4.9% (19.2% to 24.1%)
5. Bryan De La Cruz: +4.6% (22.7% to 27.3%)
Walker’s swinging strike rate has climbed from 10.2% in 2022 to 11.5% in 2024 (MLB average: 11.1%). His in-zone contact rate has slipped from 86.9% in 2022 to 84.7% in 2024 (MLB average: 85.2%). Over the last few years this soon-to-be 34-year-old first baseman who is frequently at the platoon disadvantage has gone from having slightly above average contact rates to slightly below average contact rates.
Also, Walker’s production against fastballs took a nose dive this past season. Statcast’s pitch values say he went from +11 runs against fastballs in 2022 to +10 runs in 2023 to only +2 runs in 2024. His whiff rate against heaters has risen from 17.2% in 2022 to 19.7% in 2023 to 22.3% in 2024 (MLB average: 19.9%). Again, Walker’s slipped from an above average whiff rate to a below average whiff rate. Hmmm.
Walker was a very good fastball hitter from 2022-23. In 2024, he was much closer to average, and average doesn’t mean bad. It means average, and in Walker’s case, average represents a pretty significant decline from one year to the next. The surface stats and even the exit velocity say Walker is still going strong, but under the hood, yeah, there are tiny little red flags popping up in his contact ability and fastball production.
D’Backs 2025 ZiPS were released recently and, as an unsigned free agent, Walker was lumped in with his former team. The completely objective projection system pegs Walker as a true talent .253/.335/.447 (114 OPS+) hitter going into next year, and boy, if you give him a three-year deal and get that in Year 1, I think you have to be thrilled. That’s comfortably above average and equals a +3 WAR player with Walker’s glove.
To sum it all up, Walker hits the ball very hard and he makes good swing decisions. Unless he overhauls his approach, something that might do more harm than good this deep into his career, Walker won’t benefit much from the short porch. He has enough pop to survive as a left field hitter at Yankee Stadium though. The under-the-hood contact rates and fastball production is red flaggy. Not alarm bellsy, but red flaggy.
Defense
Both the eye test and the numbers say Walker is the best defensive first basemen in the game. He really is terrific at first. Rangy, good footwork, scoops throws well, good thrower, the works. Walker has won (and deserved) the last three NL Gold Gloves at first base and the numbers say there is no one particularly close to him at the position. Here are the last three seasons:
Defensive Runs Saved
1. Christian Walker: +33
2. Matt Olson: +27
3. Carlos Santana: +22
4. Ryan Mountcastle: +11
5. Michael Toglia: +11
Outs Above Average
1. Christian Walker: +39
2. Carlos Santana: +20
3. Josh Naylor: +9
4. Bryce Harper: +8
5. Several tied at +7
Walker is a first base only guy, you’re not buying any versatility here, but why would you want to play him anywhere other than first base? He’s excellent there and the Yankees have a glaring need at first base, and also a glaring need for better defensive players in general. Defensively, Walker is an ideal fit.
Baserunning
The Yankees were the slowest and worst baserunning team in baseball in 2024, and Walker’s not gonna help them much there, not that first base is usually where you can speed and baserunning ability. He had an outlier 11-for-11 stolen base year in 2023. Other than that, Walker is 13-for-19 (68%) stealing bases since becoming an everyday player in 2019, including 2-for-4 in 2024.
Here are Walker’s 2024 baserunning numbers:
Sprint speed: 26.2 ft/s (MLB average: 27.0 ft/s)
Home-to-first time: 4.68 seconds (MLB average: 4.46 seconds)
Extra-base taken rate: 30% (MLB average: 42%)
Statcast baserunning: -2.0 runs
FanGraphs baserunning: -3.2 runs
Baseball Prospectus baserunning: -1.9 runs
Walker runs the bases like you’d expect a soon-to-be 34-year-old first baseman to run the bases. Sprint speed measures the player’s fastest one-second window and Walker’s has gradually declined from 27.4 ft/s in 2021 to 26.6 in 2022 to 26.4 in 2023 to 26.2 in 2024, so he’s slowing down as he gets deeper into his 30s. Elite athletes, they’re just like us!
Injury history
Walker had some back issues in the minors in 2012 and 2013, though his back hasn’t given him any trouble since. His 2018 season ended a week early when he took a pitch to the face and suffered a sinus fracture. Since then, Walker’s had a right oblique strain in 2021 (two injured list stints totaling 38 days) and a left oblique strain in 2024 (35 days), and that's it. He got hurt this year the day before the trade deadline, giving Arizona just enough time to pick up Josh Bell to serve as their fill-in first basemen. No chronic injuries, unless Walker is for some reason especially prone to oblique strains.
Contract projections
Because he turns 34 in March, Walker won’t get a long-term deal. First basemen aren’t getting long-term deals all that often these days anyway. Freddie Freeman got six years three years ago and he’s on his way to Cooperstown. The last free agent first baseman (i.e. not an extension) to get even four years prior to Freeman was Eric Hosmer’s eight-year deal with the Padres in Feb. 2018, which was doomed from the start.
Here are the contract projections for Walker:
ESPN (subs. req’d): 3 years, $57M ($19M per year)
FanGraphs: 3 years, $54M ($18M per year)
MLBTR: 3 years, $60M ($20M per year)
Three years at $18M to $20M per year is the consensus. I had three years at $20M each in mind, so right in line with those other folks. That is the José Abreu contract. The Astros gave Abreu three years at $19.5M a pop. That deal was a disaster – Abreu hit .217/.275/.351 (72 wRC+) with Houston and was released in the middle of Year 2 of his contract – but he also signed it going into his age 36 season, so yeah.
It must be noted Walker declined the qualifying offer. The Yankees will have to forfeit their second and fifth highest 2025 draft picks to sign him, plus $1M in 2026 international bonus pool money. Because Arizona receives revenue sharing, their compensation is tied to Walker’s contract. They’ll get a pick after the first round if Walker gets $50M or more. Less than $50M, and it’s a pick before the third round.
Does he make sense for the Yankees?
Yes, clearly. Walker will look like peak Mark Teixeira compared to what the Yankees got out of first base in 2024. That is the nice – “nice” – thing about first base being so bad this year. It won’t be hard to upgrade, and going from the 2024 first basemen to someone like Walker figures to be a significant upgrade. Perhaps even on the magnitude of 4-5 wins. The bar is not on the floor. It’s underground.
The fastball stuff does worry me a bit. Similar to a pitcher losing velocity, once a hitter in his mid-30s starts having trouble catching up to fastballs, it is basically impossible to reverse. That’s just aging. It’s too bad we only have one year of bat speed data. I’d be curious to see how Walker’s bat speed has changed over time, if at all. The bat speed aging curve gets real steep, real quick in your 30s (via Tom Tango):
There would be some irony in giving a first baseman who will be 34 on Opening Day a three-year deal to replace a first baseman who was 34 on Opening Day this year and completely cooked by the end of the season. Rizzo had physical issues though, namely the 2023 concussion the Yankees mismanaged and a history of back trouble, and that’s serious stuff. Walker only has oblique trouble in his recent past.
Signing a player in his mid-30s to a multi-year contract is a risky proposition and I’m generally against it. Those contracts are a recipe for regret (often instant regret). At the same time, what are the Yankees supposed to do at first base? Alonso is going to require a lot of money and a lot of years, and trade candidates like Yandy Díaz and LaMonte Wade Jr. would make the Yankees more one-dimensional.
That said, I do think there’s a Walker vs. Yandy conversation to be had. You have to give up two draft picks and international bonus money for Walker, and pay him $20M or so for three years. Is it better to do that, or trade two prospects for Díaz and pay him $11M in 2025 with a $12M club option for 2026 (no buyout?).
Díaz is a few months younger than Walker and they’re comparable hitters, though Yandy does it with OBP and Walker with SLG. Is Walker’s defense worth the extra years and money? Maybe it is. I do think there's a pretty good case trading for Yandy is the better move because it's not locking you into anything long-term with an aging player, but I digress.
Walker does check a lot of boxes for the Yankees. He would improve the defense significantly. He would add power and length to a lineup that was very top heavy in 2024. Here is this list again. Here are the teams that got the highest percentage of their total home runs from their top three home run hitters this past season:
1. Yankees: 53.2% (Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, Giancarlo Stanton)
2. Dodgers: 46.8% (Shohei Ohtani, Teoscar Hernández, Freddie Freeman)
3. Phillies: 46.0% (Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, Nick Castellanos)
4. Athletics: 46.0% (Brent Rooker, Shea Langeliers, Lawrence Butler)
5. Royals: 45.9% (Bobby Witt Jr., Sal Perez, Vinnie Pasquantino)
…
MLB average: 42.5%
…
30. Twins: 33.9% (Carlos Santana, Ryan Jeffers, Byron Buxton)
Walker is the best all-around first baseman realistically available – Alonso’s the better hitter but won’t help his team in the field the way Walker will – and, well, if a three-year deal goes sour, at least it’s only three years and not six or seven. The draft pick and international bonus pool penalties stink, and Walker has a few red flags. You have to take the risk with the reward. That’s just free agency.
I am generally against signing a player in his mid-30s to multiple years and I think I would rather trade for Díaz and the flexibility his contract provides. I wouldn’t be upset if the Yankees sign Walker through. He’s a very good all-around player and would help the Yankees in the most ways. Alonso and Díaz (and Wade) don’t offer much with the glove. Ignoring cost, Walker would help the Yankees the most on the field.
5. Rapid fire thoughts. Per Jayson Stark (subs. req’d), the Rays and Yankees will work together to make sure George M. Steinbrenner Field is MLB ready next year, though the Rays are ultimately responsible for everything. They have to upgrade the visitor’s clubhouse, add storage for concessions, upgrade the lights at the minor league field where Low-A Tampa will play, plus more. The Rays (or insurance, really) have to pay for it, and the Yankees get to keep it all long-term. Pretty sweet deal the Yankees struck here … And finally, Lewis Pollis wrote a great piece laying out the case that we’ve reached a tipping point with reliever usage in the postseason. The workload is too great and effectiveness is waning. I’m not sure I’m fully on board with his conclusion – “I’m convinced it is a sign that we have finally found the upper limit for how hard teams can lean on their back-end arms before it ceases to be advantageous” – but we’re definitely heading in that direction. Great piece. Check it out. (There is some gory math.)
Mailbag Questions of the Week
Mike asks: What’s going on with Masahiro Tanaka? I see he made only six starts this year.
Excellent timing with this question. Two days after it hit the inbox, Tanaka and the Rakuten Golden Eagles announced he will not return in 2025. He says he’ll look for a new team (Jim Allen says Tanaka didn’t want to take a “huge” pay cut to stay with the Golden Eagles). I suppose that means he could return to MLB, though it seems unlikely at this point. Tanaka made only one start in 2024, not six. The other five were minor league rehab games. Tanaka had a “cleanup” procedure on his elbow last offseason and his recovery took longer than expected. He allowed four runs in five innings in his one start with the Golden Eagles in September. Now 36, Tanaka is three wins short of becoming the fourth pitcher with 200 combined wins between MLB and NPB (Yu Darvish, Hideo Nomo, and Hiroki Kuroda are the others). He’s at 2,598 combined strikeouts, so he has an outside chance at 3,000. The Golden Eagles have had a winning record once in the last five years. Seems like a classic “team needs to move on from a beloved longtime star to take a step forward” situation.
David asks: The Yankees are among the best teams at developing relief pitching, but as you’ve noted many times, many hitters (though there are exceptions) have seemed to regress in the big leagues relative to apparent talent level in the last 10+ years. Which teams are best at upper level hitter development, and why doesn’t Hal go buy those development people? Seems that would save the team (him) money in the long run. I know it’s not that simple of course, but in your opinion is there a team or two whose upper-level hitter development talent the Yankees should be poaching (or emulating)?
Within baseball, the Dodgers and Orioles are generally considered the best at developing hitters. The Astros were in that group once upon a time, but not so much now given all the recent turnover in their front office and player development staff. Hiring people from smart teams is easier said than done. Those folks are under contract, and teams are not keen on letting their best people interview for jobs elsewhere unless there’s a promotion involved. And even then it’s not a slam dunk. There’s been a rise in teams flat out declining their employees permission to interview elsewhere, even for a promotion (a few months ago my pal R.J. Anderson wrote about how employee unfriendly teams are these days). The Yankees can’t simply approach the Dodgers/Orioles top hitter development folks, offer them a raise, and get it done that way. To get Matt Blake from the Guardians, they had to promote him to MLB pitching coach. Cleveland never would have let him leave to make a lateral move and become the Yankees’ minor league pitcher development guru. Also, scouting and identifying talent matter too. Coaches can only do so much. The Yankees for the longest time had a blind spot for everything except exit velocity. They’re getting away from that now, but it’s too soon to tell whether it will lead to more productive young big league hitters.
Robert asks: According to Cot's Baseball Contracts, it was 140 IP in 2024 that triggers Stroman's 2026 salary. So which is it, 140 IP in 2024 or 2025?
I am 99% sure Cot’s has a typo (it happens). The Associated Press says the 2026 option kicks in with 140 innings in 2025, and the AP is usually on the ball. It would be unusual for an option to depend on the innings total from two seasons prior too. And think about it, Marcus Stroman threw 154.2 innings this year. Would the Yankees have let him throw those last 14.2 innings (last 15 innings, really) if the option was tied to 2024? They moved him to the bullpen in September because he was ineffective, and he pitched only twice in the final 17 games. The Yankees avoided Stroman late in the year. If the option was based on 2024, I reckon we would have seen a lot less of him in September. Stroman needs 140 innings in 2025 to get the $18M player option. It has to be. His late season usage wouldn’t make much sense otherwise.
Juan asks: A long time ago I remember one WAR was worth $8m or so in value. Are there updated estimates? How much would the Yankees have paid for Juan Soto’s last season?
$8M per WAR in free agency is the constant FanGraphs uses, though the number changes over time and it’s different for every team, really. An 88-win team should be willing to pay a little more to add wins than a 75-win team because every win that 88-win team adds will have an enormous impact on their postseason chances. What each team is willing to pay for a win is not constant. There is evidence that teams aren’t paying as much for wins since the pandemic. It was all the way down to $6.7M per WAR last offseason, though that was before those Scott Boras clients all signed late. FanGraphs estimated Soto’s production at $65.1M in 2024. I reckon his actual value to the franchise was north of $100M. He sold tickets, he sold merchandise, he got the Yankees to the World Series. If the league average is $8M per WAR, the Yankees should be willing to pay more than that to retain Soto. He impacts the standings so much and the franchise’s brand is built on winning.
(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)
Comments
DontCallMeLorney
Happy Thanksgiving Mike! Been reading since ‘09. We appreciate all the amazing articles over the years. Enjoy the time off with your family!
chuangeUp
Still a hitter, and his defence is a huge developmental success. Point remains about the Dodgers if we're talking strictly offence.
Jerry Donohue
Mike, if the Yankees had offered Cortes and a top 10 prospect for Jonathan India would that be equivalent to what the Royals gave up?
Bill Larzelere
Volpe's value sure doesn't come from hitting
Big Davey88
I agree. Amphetamine popping players like Hank Aaron should be removed from the Hall. So thats, what, all of the players from the 60s, 70s, and 80s? Let's go one further: It was unfair that the Yankees could just sign all of the best prospects in the 20s, 30s, 40s, and 50s. Honestly, those World Series don't count!
Kevin Parlato
Please, leave Barry and the Steroid Gang out of conversations that have clean players. I mean, the comparisons aren't fair and cheating shouldn't become a norm to be rewarded (even though "they" sure made a lot of bank).
Dan G
Found the problem! My email started doing the “focused message” thing and wasn’t showing everything… technology is exhausting. Anyway, happy turkey day Mike. Enjoy the long weekend.
Michael Axisa
In Patreon, check your settings at Settings > Email Notifications. I haven't had any other complaints.
Dan G
Orioles did an Astros level hard tank for premium talent Holliday #1 Cowser #5 Kjerstad #2 Westburg #30 Rutchman #1 Henderson #42 In fairness their attempt in early 2000’s and failed spectacularly
chuangeUp
LOL at Dodgers being good at developing hitters. Who have they developed since Will Smith? Wells and Volpe were each worth 3.5 WAR. The Dodgers didn't come close.
Dan G
Not getting email alerts lately. Anyone else?
kyle
That Max Burt slide highlight should live forever like Rodney McCray going thru the wall
The Original Drew
Jahmai Jones signed with the Mariners I believe. Salute to an all time vibes guy, aside when the Yankees batted him lead off that one game with JD Davis batting clean up.
