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December 4th, 2024: Obsessive Soto Watch
🕑 Added 2024-12-04 14:23:18 +0000 UTCFor the first time since we got word about meetings with specific teams, there was some actual Juan Soto free agency news Tuesday. Stuff that is important enough that I don’t want to wait until Friday’s post to talk about it. Here’s the latest:
Soto has “begun the process of eliminating teams,” Scott Boras said at Blake Snell’s introductory press conference Tuesday (per J.P. Hoornstra). Boras added he did not think a deal was not imminent.
Every team still in the race has offered at least $600M (the number of years is unknown), according to Ken Rosenthal and Evan Drellich (subs. req’d). Brendan Kuty says the Yankees are among those teams.
Soto’s free agency is “nearing its final stages” and a deal could be done by the end of this week, before next week’s Winter Meetings, per Alden Gonzalez.
"When you go through these things, you just have a lot of information to meld through," Boras said when asked about Soto at Snell’s press conference (per Gonzalez). "We've had meetings with a number of franchises. He's begun the process of eliminating teams and doing things. Juan is a very methodical thinker, so we'll see. I don't think anything is imminent in the near future."
We need not overthink this. Soto is one of the best players in the world and he just turned 26. When you’re the Yankees, and you’re this close to the World Series and your brand is built on stars and championships, you sign him. You already know how well Soto fits in the clubhouse and in your lineup. You saw his impact firsthand. It’s a huge contract, sure, but this is a very easy decision.
Ultimately, it will come down to Hal Steinbrenner’s willingness. I’ve said this before, but the Yankees have the money. They can beat any offer, even Steve Cohen’s. It’s just a question of whether Hal is willing to do it, because the days of the Yankees being baseball's top spender are over. The Yankees haven’t had baseball’s highest payroll in a 162-game season since 2013 (per Cot’s). That is a conscious decision. It is Hal’s design.
I will do it if I have to, but I am uninterested in exploring a Plan B. Plan B is trading prospects and forfeiting draft picks to add a bunch of 30-somethings so you can try to replace an irreplaceable player. Remember what this team was before Soto? I’m not sure how anyone could watch the 2021-24 Yankees and say you know what, this contract is too much for that guy. Soto’s a franchise changer. These players are extremely rare.
It sounds like we’re in “any day now” territory. The offers are over $600M (I assume they’ll eventually get over $700M) and Soto has begun eliminating teams. Once that happens, things can come together very quickly. My initial guess for signing day was next Wednesday, Dec. 11th. I’m going to revise that to this Friday. I think we’re days away from a resolution now, not a week.
Comments
MikeD
In the end, Soto clearly didn't care about being a Yankee. He went for the last dollar.
The Original Drew
Hal Steinbrenner being a broke bitch should be a bigger story than it is.
Sammy C
George sold the company in 1995, after it went bankrupt in 1993. His daughter Jennifer runs Kinsman Farms, a stud farm in Ocala, and they got out of the hotel business about 5 years ago. So, the Yankees are their predominent money-making enterprise.
W.B. Mason Williams
Plan B feels like the kind of thing that will keep us in low 90s win territory, maybe even a few divisions over the next 5 years, but will also prevent us on missing out on whoever the next slam-dunk free agent superstar is. Don't try to whiteboard your way into justifying Plan B. Just. Dunk.
Alex G
Yes, they could. At worst, if Soto is just going to go where the most money presumably is, they could drive the bidding all the way up to push Cohen into a number that no other team would even fathom giving Soto.
DocBob
What happened to George's ship-building business?
MikeD
Can they beat any offer if they so desire? I've often referred to the Yankees as a "trust" with Hal running that trust for the entire Steinbrenner clan. There are lots of hands in the pot. He's not cash rich like Cohen. His status as a billionaire is based on the value of the Yankees, which he can only realize if he sells the team. They are the wealthiest team in MLB, but Hal is basically a pauper compared to other owners. That means there is a line they can't go over, but Cohen certainly can.
DZB
Nice to know that the NYY are at least in the pool after the first sift based on a $600MM floor (after reports that they refused to go above $550MM). I am not convinced he'll reach the level of Ohtani's deal because Ohtani is a unique talent. He's shown that he can be an MVP calibre hitter and he would probably be a CY calibre pitcher if he only did that for a season (he's not far off already). He also brings so much media attention, including huge audiences from Japan (just look at the TV ratings for the WS in Japan vs the USA). Soto is marketable and supremely talented, but he's also a notch below Ohtani in both regards, so may get a lower deal that reflects that.
Vismay Pandia
Not to be dramatic or anything but I will cry myself to sleep for a fortnight if the Yankees miss out on Soto
Big Davey88
Further, 'of awl the dramatic things!' ... I don't think I watch next year if the Yankees don't sign Soto. They are unserious about fielding the best team possible if they don't get a 26 year old inner circle hall of fame bat for just money. We just watched this team strike out in all kinds of different ways over the last 15 years in failing to get to the world series. I am not discounting how hard it is to get there, but to think the one time they traded for a true game changing player and they happened to get to the world series that same year and that player might not come back??? Again, unserious. You could squint and see plausibility that signing Harper, at the time, was a luxury. I do not agree with that, but it could be said. There is no reason not to sign Soto. If you are hung up and baserunning and defense on the balance of a generational bat, you get the team you deserve, kind of like the multiple half measure rosters we've slogged through during that 15 year drought.
Big Davey88
Also, the Yankees have shown in the past they have no issue keeping things under wraps when they want to.
Big Davey88
If you are against signing Soto you are overthinking it.
Davidson
Feels like Mike already has the Hal evisceration post half written
Kelvz Rodriguez
One factor on why I'd like the Yankees to spend 50M per year on Soto than say two 30M players is because of age. Yes, you'd be signing Soto to probably a 13 year contract at least, of which nearly half would still be in his prime, say at least 6-7 years, give or take. But those 30+ year old FA? Yeah, they are good. Sure, you'd only sign them to 4-8 year deals. But how many prime years, if any, are we getting? If the question is 50M on one 26 year old star vs 60M on two 28 year old stars, I "might" prefer the latter, but in this current situation, give me Soto hands down.
Kelvz Rodriguez
That actually gives me confidence. I may be drinking Yankee kool-aid by saying this, but I think that says that Soto wants to stay, he just wants to ensure he gets the most out of Hal. Have these positive articles about other teams and none about the Yankees, and maximize that leverage as much as you can.
Carlos Herrera
I don’t know how to take the fact that there has been NO positive articles about the Yankees chances. Either someone says the Mets are the presumed favorites or that the Yankees won’t match offers. I’m 60/40 that it’s the Yankees over the Mets, but man I’d like to read a positive article soon lol
Alex G
I have zero interest in any of the plan B options involving 30+ year olds if they aren't willing to bring Soto back (I say willing because as you noted Mike, they can beat any offer if they so desire). In that case, the Yankees should just focus on prioritizing development (which took a massive step back in the minors this past season) and seeing if they can come up with a trade for someone like Vlad Jr. Alonso, Walker, Hernandez, Santander types are not appealing unless they are willing to come on short-term contracts or heavily-deferred deals that have less of an impact on the CBT.
