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December 7th, 2024: Obsessive Soto Watch
🕑 Added 2024-12-08 01:48:29 +0000 UTCWell, so much for my revised “Juan Soto will sign on Friday” prediction. As I write this Saturday night, Soto remains unsigned, though things should wrap up any day now. There has been a lot of silliness the last few days. Carlos Mendoza’s son leaked the offer on TikTok! Soto’s sister is apartment shopping on his behalf in Boston! The betting markets are moving because front office people know what’s up!
With Soto’s decision seemingly imminent, it sounds like things are right where we thought they’d end up: Yankees and Mets with the biggest offers. Everything in the meantime has been a calculated Scott Boras leak or people chasing ghosts. Saturday evening, Jon Heyman had the most substantial (reliable) update in several days. From Heyman:
The Yankees and Mets both remain heavily involved in the five-team Juan Soto Derby, with both clubs recently upping offers into the $710 million-$730 million range — MLB record territory — as it’s believed the sweepstakes could be within a day or two of an historic conclusion.
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It is believed the Mets may be slightly higher as of Saturday night, but the respective offers appear to be within shouting distance.
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Soto won’t necessarily take the exact highest bidder, and he was said to be weighing five enormous bids Saturday night.
Would Hal Steinbrenner step up to the plate and do what needs to be done to bring Soto back? So far, it appears the answer is yes. The Yankees are up over $700M, and once you’ve gone there, there’s no sense in letting this fall apart over another $20M or so. That’s a small annual increase, you know? You don’t go over $700M for appearances (because he might take it). You do that if you’re a serious bidder.
There’s still a chance Steve Cohen makes a huge offer because he thinks that’s the only way he’ll get this done, but if Cohen was going to blow the Yankees out of the water, would he have waited this long to do it? They’re pretty deep into the process now and the Mets/Yankees offers are “within shouting distance,” per Heyman. It seems Hal and the Yankees are putting their best foot forward.
Almost every elite free agent the last few years (Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, etc.) had multiple offers at the same money at the end of the process, and they made their decision based on other factors. If that happens here, the Yankees have home field advantage. Soto knows them. He went to the World Series with them. All indications are he enjoyed his season in pinstripes. That can only help.
If Cohen goes nuts and offers $800M, or Soto says he doesn’t want to play for the Yankees, then that would suck, but it would be easier to swallow than the Yankees topping out at $600M or something like that. Per Heyman, the Yankees are right there with the Mets with their offer, and this is going to wrap up soon. This is right where I wanted the Yankees. Match Cohen's financial muscle, sell Soto on everything else.
Comments
Alex G
That's exactly what is going to happen. Cashman is the absolute worst.
Gregory B
Yup. Time to spend just as much money on a bunch of guys on the wrong side of 30.
Jingling Baby
Uggh. He’s a Met.
Guy Gregory
MikeD is right. This is about Boras. If you are going to sign your client to a 700 Million dollar contract, you want the most press exposure you can get. That isn't today. CFP seeding to be announced, NFL game day. The Lede will be buried. Whether he stays or goes now is almost irrelevant. If he goes this will be the second team related disappointment and it will sting. The FO will have to pivot quickly and we will have to get over it. Either way the FO has a lot of work to do. Are we ready for the return of the Summer of Thairo? I hope that would be as a reserve and not the starting 3B. It is going to be a long week. Lots of rumors and handwringing. Let's hope they make news that puts them in a position to succeed nest season.
Joseph F
Should only care if it’s to be believed Hal wants to hold at a 300 million payroll each year. 50 million is a large chunk. As long as payroll rises accordingly then no one should care
Nick Fugitt
I cannot believe there are Yankees fans getting nervous about the amount of money, as if this prevents them from making other moves. That or preferring they sign old ass Christian Walker and washed Alex Bregman to smaller but still notable deals as if it would move the needle for this team at all without Soto. Did they not see this guy almost singlehandedly drag the team to the World Series?
Dan G
$700M+ and the A’s are building a $2B ballpark. Remember this next year when owners start crying poor ahead of CBA
Will
Agreed. The Mets were no slouch this year but after spending the season with the Yankees and going to the Series with them, it’s tough to imagine him saying “yeah I wanna be a Met the next 15 years”.
MikeD
There is a point where the two meet, mostly. If all the theatrics have been about getting the Yankees up into the $700 million range, then mission accomplished. If Boras goes back to the Yankees and asks them to match the Mets offer, then technically he gets the most money and stays with his preferred team, even though he likely would get more if they went back to Cohen again. We'll never know that. Is there a point when Cohen taps out realizing he's now being used, if that's the case? Or does Soto simply want every last dollar. If the latter, he's a Met. If he wants the money but not the last dollar, he remains a Yankee.
Jerkface
Very confident he is gonna be a Yankee if the offers are close. Yankees are always contenders who spend big on the roster (even if they dont spend as much as we want or how we want) and no way Soto is looking at the Mets plugging their rotation with Montas & Clay Holmes and goes "yea these are the geniuses I wanna hitch my wagon too"
MikeD
This is all Boras driven. First there's a leak bids are over $500MM. Then there's leaks it's over $600MM. Then there's leaks it might go over $700MM. Then we find the Yankees and the Mets are over in the $710-730 range. My favorite is a photo earlier today of Soto sitting at a table surrounded by three men, one Boras, the others unidentified, peering intently downward as if he's about to sign something. Gotta give Scott credit for the extra dramatics. It is possible Cohen is trying to blow the field away but the Yankees keep upping their offer. $700MM+ is a lot. As noted, we have to hope that the Yankees is the team he wants, and they put ink paper in the next 24 hours.
The Original Drew
I’ve said it since the beginning of this, if all Soto cared about was top $ then he’s gone. Cohen will always outbid the Yankees by a considerable amount. Yankees just have to be reasonably close and I think they have it in the bag.
kyle
We ride?
