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Quick thoughts after the Yankees sign Max Fried to an eight-year deal
🕑 Added 2024-12-10 23:53:39 +0000 UTC
Plan B is underway. The Yankees have agreed to an eight-year, $218M contract with left-hander Max Fried, according to all the trustworthy reporters. There is a full no-trade clause and no deferrals. $218M is the fourth richest pitching contract in history behind Yoshinobu Yamamoto ($325M), Gerrit Cole ($324M), and Stephen Strasburg ($245M). It’s the richest contract ever for a southpaw. Give it a few days and the Yankees will make an official announcement.
Once upon a time Fried was the No. 7 pick in the 2012 draft by the Padres. They later traded him to the Braves as part of the Justin Upton deal in Dec. 2014. With this signing, the Yankees are doubling down on a strength and adding to a rotation that was already pretty good. Here is the updated depth chart:
1. RHP Gerrit Cole
2. LHP Max Fried
3. LHP Carlos Rodón
4. RHP Luis Gil
5. RHP Clarke Schmidt
6. LHP Nestor Cortes
7. RHP Marcus Stroman
8. RHP JT Brubaker
9. RHP Cody Poteet
10. RHP Will Warren
The World Series run means the incumbent starters took on a huge workload this year and have one fewer month to recover this offseason. Fried gives the Yankees some protection there. Also, the Yankees can now more easily pivot and trade Gil or Schmidt for help elsewhere on the roster. (I wonder about unloading Stroman on the Athletics, who need to add payroll to get the MLBPA off their back about spending their revenue sharing money.)
Fried, 31 next month, threw 174.1 innings with a 3.25 ERA (3.33 FIP) and average-ish strikeout (23.0%) and walk (8.0%) rates this past season. I can’t say I’m surprised the Yankees targeted him. Fried is an elite ground ball/weak contact guy and that’s their thing. Here are the last four years:
2021: 51.8 GB% and 86.5 mph average exit velocity
2022: 51.2 GB% and 86.2 mph average exit velocity
2023: 57.7 GB% and 86.5 mph average exit velocity
2024: 58.8 GB% and 86.3 mph average exit velocity
MLB average: 42.2 GB% and 88.8 mph average exit velocity
Fried is a three-time Gold Glover who helps himself on the defensive side. When he's on, he wears out the infield grass. Also, fun fact: Fried is the last pitcher to win a Silver Slugger. He hit .273/.322/.327 (77 wRC+) in 2021.
Fried’s 2024 walk rate was abnormally high. He had a 5.3 BB% from 2021-23. He typically has excellent command and he’s a seven-pitch guy who is more like a four-pitch guy. Fried works primarily with a sinker, four-seamer, curveball, and changeup. He’s also got a traditional slider, a sweeper, and a cutter. He threw each of those last three pitches at least 4% of the time this year, so they’re there. He uses them. It’s a big, wide arsenal.
One reason I am excited about the signing: Jose Trevino and Austin Wells. Yankees’ catchers led baseball with +22 framing runs in 2024, eight more than any other team. The Braves, with Travis d’Arnaud and Sean Murphy, were closer to league average at +2 framing runs. Pair a pitcher with excellent command with baseball's best framing catchers and good things are gonna happen. This has a chance to work very, very well.
The contract is too many years and too many dollars, but this is what it takes to get an elite pitcher. You have to give them something uncomfortable to get it done. Fried has a 2.81 ERA (151 ERA+) the last five years and a carrying skill in his ability to suppress hard contact. He started and won the 2021 World Series clincher (video) and is big game/postseason battle-tested. When you’re going to sink $218M into a pitcher, you want him to check a lot of boxes, and Fried does.
Eight years is a lot of years for a soon-to-be 31-year-old, especially one who had some elbow stuff two years ago, though it sure seems like the Yankees added two years to lower the luxury tax hit. Blake Snell, who is a year older than Fried, got five years and $182M, or $36.2M per year. Add another year at $36.2M to that to account for the difference in age, and you get six years and $218.2M. Add two years to that to lower the luxury tax hit, and boom, you have Fried’s contract. It's a $27.25M luxury tax charge, eighth highest among pitchers.
When I wrote about Plan B earlier this week, I said I hope the Yankees steer clear of multi-year contracts for position players in their 30s, but going long on pitchers is a-okay because pitch design (something the Yankees are good at) gives you a chance to keep them productive later into their careers. Fried won’t be elite forever. The Yankees just need him to be elite right now, while Cole and Aaron Judge are still in their primes. Worry about the later years of the contract later.
A starter was not at the tippy top of the offseason shopping list, but it was on the shopping list, and who says you have to go down Aisles 1 and 2 before Aisle 3? An outfielder (or two), a first baseman, a second or third baseman, and bullpen help are still on the post-Juan Soto to-do list. Good signing, this is. Fried is better qualified to be the No. 2 than Rodón and good lefties in Yankee Stadium are a need, not a necessity.
(Big day for tabloid headline writers, eh? They’ll have plenty of material to work with with a guy named Fried.)
Comments
Brad Schlesinger
come to the party for soto and leave with fried. the brain rot in the front office runs deep. javy vasquez not available?
Kevin Carter
Bronx Bomb-prevent-ers
Alex G
It's a lot of years but for some reason the Yankees are now hellbent on doing these type of contracts because of their obsession with the luxury tax. Still many needs across the roster so this needs to be Step 1 of the offseason and not the single headliner move.
DocBob
Oh man, I'd be so happy if the Athletics took Stroman off our hands.
John G
It's a start
Will
Pretty crazy contract, but the FA market is generally insane right now, and if all it takes is money to make the team better, then I’m all for it. I’m curious what the budget for Plan B looks like. I thought I’d seen rumors the team was willing to do Soto plus Fried or Burnes, and if true that still leaves them with $50M in annual salary to work with.
J9D
Nestor and Gil pitched only 2 and 8 postseason innings, respectively (granted a lot for Gil as a rookie who already had lots of reg season innings). Stroman didn’t pitch unless I’m forgetting something. Cole and Rodon carried the heavy load by a mile (29 and 18 innings) so yes they need time. Yankees have guys who can carry some inning in early 2025 to give Cole, Rodon and I guess Schmidt (12 playoff innings) some extra recovery time.
MikeD
Step one of five or six. It wouldn't shock me if Fried follows an Andy Pettitte path and remains solid into his late 30s, but can't count on that. As you said, we need him to be good now.
The Original Drew
Somehow getting Kyle Tucker will make me feel a fuck ton better.
Matt B
Welcome New Jacoby. Looking forward to seeing who will play the parts of Carlos Beltran and Brian McCann in this winter’s Plan B 2, Electric Boogaloo
Jeremy W
@mike can still do your Crochet-Robert deal (Gil plus Spencer plus Warren?) and then grab Bellinger. That’s a pretty great offseason.
Nick Fugitt
Yamamoto would have been a million a year cheaper and finished a year earlier in age, plus Sasaki isn’t seemingly fated to go to the Dodgers if the Yankees can convince YY to come. Now, this. Hope it works out better than Rodon
Jeremy W
The “Fried Rice” battery if Ben gets behind the “dish”is too good to pass up!
BK Bobby Digital
I really like this move, keep cooking Cash
