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January 17th, 2025: International Free Agency, Arias, Smith, Hill, Mailbag
🕑 Added 2025-01-17 11:00:09 +0000 UTCMy Hall of Fame ballot and explainer is up at CBS. Feel free to yell at me and call me stupid, or, preferably, tell me how smart and handsome I am. I tried to write in Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy, and Joba Chamberlain, but they told me that wasn’t allowed. Jokes aside, I took the responsibility seriously, and did what I thought was best. The Hall of Fame class will be announced this coming Tuesday. Ichiro’s a shoo-in and the public ballots tracker strongly indicates CC Sabathia is getting in too. We’ll find out officially next week. Let’s now get to today’s post. (RIP Bob Uecker, one of baseball’s all-time great characters.)
1. Latest hot stove news and rumors. Not a whole lot going on these days, particularly with the Yankees. They’ve already handled most of their offseason business and are now in “let’s be patient and see what falls into our lap” mode. Here are the latest Yankees-related hot stove nuggets.
Yankees waiting on IFAs
According to Ben Badler (subs. req’d), the Yankees told players they are waiting until Roki Sasaki signs to finalize their international amateur free agent signings. The signing period opened Wednesday. Sasaki told the Yankees he won’t sign with them, though the Yankees could trade bonus pool space to the team that gets him, or sign any players who lose their agreement with Sasaki’s chosen team.
Sasaki must sign by next Thursday, so this won’t drag on too long, and the Yankees aren’t the only team to put their international signings on hold. As I write this Thursday afternoon, 14 of MLB Pipeline’s top 50 international prospects have not signed, and eight teams have yet to make a signing. That’s unheard of. The signing period opens at 9am ET on Jan. 15th every year, and then there’s a rush. Within the first hour the majority of the top 50 sign and every team makes multiple signings. This year’s large scale inactivity is basically unprecedented.
The Yankees are leaving their options open until Sasaki signs rather than diving right into international free agency, and several other teams had the same idea. Badler notes the Yankees have a history of being flexible with their signings, including getting Dominican OF Stiven Marinez to wait until 2025 to sign (he ultimately didn’t have to wait). They’re expected to sign Dominican SS Manny Cedeno and Dominican OF Ruben Castillo, plus others. The Yankees just want to wait a week to see what happens with Sasaki.
“There are a number of teams asking for international money,” an executive told Mark Feinsand. “Some that you would guess and some that you would not. (The teams in on Sasaki) are certainly reaching out but they aren’t alone. Other teams are recognizing opportunities.”
There are two rumors floating around this week, one more believable than the other. First, Sasaki will pick a team, then give them a few days to trade for more bonus pool space rather than make the three finalists (Blue Jays, Dodgers, Padres) scramble to trade for additional bonus pool money, then make his pick. This is a rumor I can believe. The finalists will do what they have to do, but of course they would prefer to know Sasaki’s decision before jumping into any trades. It would be a professional courtesy to let them know before they go out and make moves.
And second, supposedly the Dodgers have a deal in place or in the works or whatever to trade OF Josue De Paula for $3M in bonus pool money (just about the max they can add). De Paula is a consensus top 30-ish prospect in baseball. If he’s available, the Yankees should jump all over it. He’s what you hope the international free agent you give $3M becomes. Of course you make that trade. Trade for De Paula, then trade for more bonus pool space to sign Cedeno, Castillo, etc. That would be the dream outcome short of the Yankees getting Sasaki.
My guess is the De Paula rumor has gotten distorted through the game of telephone. A team asked the Dodgers for De Paula because they know Sasaki’s hard signing deadline gives them leverage, and that turned into “the Dodgers will trade De Paula.” That kinda thing. If he’s truly available, De Paula is worth trading $3M in bonus pool money, and whatever signing headaches that creates. We’ll see. Sasaki must sign by 5pm ET next Thursday. This whole thing has a defined end point.
Yankees get actual prospect from Cubs in cash trade
The Yankees have begun filling their vacant 40-man roster spots. Wednesday they acquired righty Michael Arias from the Cubs for cash, the team announced. Chicago DFAed Arias last weekend to clear a 40-man spot for Colin Rea, and the Yankees made the trade to jump the waiver line and make sure they got him. The Yankees still have three open 40-man spots with Spring Training a month away.
Arias turned only 23 in November and is a legit prospect. He’s not a top prospect, but he is a prospect, and there was surprise and a little consternation in the Cubs’ corner of the internet when he got DFAed. Prior to the trade, MLB Pipeline ranked Arias as the No. 18 prospect in Chicago’s system, one spot behind old pal Jack Neely. Eric Longenhagen had him as the Cubbies’ 11th best prospect last month.
A converted infielder, Arias had a 4.77 ERA (4.69 FIP) with 25.2 K% and 16.8 BB% in 60.1 relief innings between Double-A and Triple-A in 2024. It was his first season as a full-time reliever, and, as those numbers suggest, his prospect stock is tied to his raw stuff, not his command. Here is Longenhagen’s scouting report (here’s video):
Arias has always struggled with walks, but because he was so athletic and new to pitching it was reasonable to project that he’d get better in this regard. He hasn’t even progressed to 40-grade control yet, and he’s still wild enough that it detracts from the effectiveness of his stuff, which is electric … This is a funky, low-slot righty with a mid-90s sinker, a potentially plus-plus changeup, and a righty-dowsing slider. Arias’ best changeups have devastating finish and are nasty enough for him to miss bats right-on-right. His slot makes it tough for him to get on top of his 82-86 mph slider. It has frisbee shape, but its late, tight movement still makes it an effective bat-misser. Arias has the weapons to deal with hitters of either handedness and he has experience working multiple innings at a time. He’s still projected for an impact relief role here as a multi-inning weapon with plus stuff, but this is below where Arias has been on the last two Cubs farm updates because his control just hasn’t improved.
In the Matt Blake era, the Yankees have consistently rolled the dice on guys with high octane stuff and less than stellar strike-throwing ability. Some work out (Clay Holmes), most don’t (Nick Burdi, McKinley Moore, etc.). Just keep throwing darts and hope you hit a bullseye. Arias has a very live arm and is young and fairly new to pitching. This is a low cost* chance to find out if this is the year he gets to average control.
* The cash in these trades is usually the $50,000 waiver fee. Every so often there’s a $1 trade (like David McKay), and those typically happen when a guy uses an opt out and the team has zero leverage.
The Cubs added Arias to the 40-man roster for Rule 5 Draft protection purposes last offseason. He used his first minor league option in 2024 and has two remaining for 2025 and 2026. Given his control problems, Arias is a developmental pickup more than a candidate to make the Opening Day roster. If it works, great. If not, then the Yankees can DFA him later. All they gave up was some cash. A worthwhile flier, Arias is.
Yankees sign Smith
Another non-roster signing. The Yankees have signed journeyman first baseman Dom Smith to a minor league contract, per Jack Curry. I thought Smith, the No. 11 pick in the 2013 draft, was going to be a big deal when he hit .299/.366/.571 (150 wRC+) in 400 plate appearances with the Mets from 2019-20, though that didn’t last. Now 29, Smith has hit .231/.311/.360 (87 wRC+) in over 1,500 plate appearances since 2021.
On paper, the Yankees seem pretty well set at first base, but after the first base horrors of 2024, I can’t say I blame them for bringing in another body at the position. This is a team that started literally Jon Berti at first base last postseason (three times!). This was the first base depth chart before the Smith signing:
1. Paul Goldschmidt (37 and declining)
2. DJ LeMahieu (36 and injured/declining)
3. Ben Rice (catcher learning first base)
(Smith probably slots in here)
4. JC Escarra (will be a 30-year-old rookie)
5. TJ Rumfield (passed over in the Rule 5 Draft)
The Yankees could always put Cody Bellinger at first base, though doing so would create a need in the outfield. Also, Smith is over six years of service time now, so his minor league deal automatically includes an opt out at the end of Spring Training. It’s not a guarantee Smith will remain with the Yankees into the regular season and report to Triple-A. This could be a Spring Training only thing.
Here are all the other minor league contract guys the Yankees have signed this winter. Another infielder and a backup catcher type would seem to still be on the shopping list, plus depth arms. We may never see Smith in a Yankees uniform after Spring Training. He could be hitting cleanup in June. That’s the way it goes with these non-roster guys. Either you never see them again or you see them too much.
Miscellany
Brendan Kuty (subs. req’d) says it “seems” the Yankees’ top priority right now is finding a lefty reliever. I’d rather a second/third baseman be their top priority, but there’s no need to put these things in any specific order. The Yankee have a month to get what they need before Spring Training. On that note, Tim Healey says the Mets have shown interest in Tim Hill lately. Hill was awesome last season, though I don’t see the need to get into a bidding war for Tim Hill. Make an offer you’re comfortable with, and if he says no and goes to Queens, so be it. I have faith in the Yankees figuring the lefty reliever thing out … And finally, Jon Morosi reports Ha-Seong Kim is looking at a May return from his labrum surgery, at least right now. There was some hope Kim would return in April. April became May, and with injuries this significant, May can become June and June can become July before you know it. The longer he goes unsigned, the more likely it is Kim takes a short-term contract (one year with a player option, etc.). A defense-first infielder coming off throwing shoulder surgery carries a lot of risk, though Kim would make the Yankees better. The Yankees have not been connected to him this offseason. It’s been weeks since any team was connected to him.
2. Rapid fire thoughts. The Athletics signed Japanese SS/RHP Shotaro Morii for $1.5M when the 2025 international signing period opened Wednesday. This is notable because Morii, who is a fairly significant prospect, signed directly out of high school and skipped NPB entirely, which never happens. Japanese players are “encouraged” to go through NPB before being posted (Yu Darvish and Shohei Ohtani both wanted to sign with MLB teams out of high school, but were heavily pressured to stay in Japan) and Morii is breaking the norm. Is this the start of a trend? A one-off? I dunno. NPB wants to the best Japanese players to stay in Japan, understandably, and MLB wants to maintain a good working relationship with NPB. I suspect there would be a rule change before Japanese players start signing with MLB teams out of high school en masse … Tom Verducci has a great piece providing an inside look at Corbin Burnes’ free agency. Burnes confirmed the Yankees showed interest right away, and were honest about preferring a lefty (Max Fried). He said he met with the Yankees (and other teams) on Zoom rather than in-person because he travels enough during the season and didn’t want to get on any planes. I feel that. I hate flying. Anyway, really interesting piece that peels back the curtain a bit on free agency from the player’s perspective. Check it out … And finally, ESPN announced the early season Sunday Night Baseball schedule. The Yankees have two dates so far: May 18th vs. Mets and June 1st at Dodgers. Two games in the first three months isn’t so bad. Eyeballing the schedule, there are several Sunday games ESPN could pick up in the second half, including dates with the Phillies (July 27th), Astros (Aug. 10th), and Red Sox (Aug. 24th). If a season is played without at least two Yankees vs. Red Sox games on Sunday Night Baseball, did it really happen? Also, Opening Day against the Brewers is an ESPN exclusive. No YES Network broadcast for that one. That’s lame. At least give us a separate YES broadcast for Opening Day. I don’t want to listen to nine innings of Karl Ravech saying different variations of “you know Coney, the Yankees don't have Juan Soto anymore, and you wonder how that will affect them” on the first day of the new season. I want the broadcasters I’m going to spend the next six months with, you know?
Mailbag Questions of the Week
Bill asks: The departure of Gleyber marked a conclusion to the "great" selloff of summer 2016 where Chapman and Miller were flipped at the deadline. Two questions: 1) At the time it was reported that the Yankees had their choice between Gleyber, Eloy Jimenez, or Ian Happ (btw, Dylan Cease was also a Cubs minor leaguer at the time). Did the Yanks choose wisely with Gleyber? 2) The prospects received in those 2 deals were supposed to help form the next great core, which obviously didn't happen. Did the Yankees miss with their selections of Frazier, Sheffield, Gleyber, etc? Was it just bad luck how they developed? Were there better deals with other teams that could have happened? Or was this just the typical outcome when it comes to acquiring prospects?
It was indeed Gleyber Torres, Eloy Jiménez, or Ian Happ. Gleyber over Eloy was definitely the right choice. Torres over Happ is more debatable. Happ debuted in May 2017 and played all over initially. Some infield, some outfield, and the bat has always been at least average. The Yankees probably would have stuck with Happ on the infield longer than the Cubs did given their roster situation at the time.
Gleyber debuted in April 2018 and has been an infielder only. Here is what Torres and Happ did during their team control years (both guys gave their teams close to seven full years of control given the timing of their initial call ups):
That’s about as close as it gets. Torres was +2.63 WAR per 600 plate appearances and Happ was +2.64 WAR per 600 plate appearances. Gleyber was a full-time infielder who didn’t strike out nearly as often. Happ played some infield but mostly corner outfield, and is a switch-hitter. Seems like a “no wrong answer” situation to me. Force me to pick and I’ll say Torres was the right call given the Yankees’ infield needs.
As for the second question, I’m not sure those 2016 deadline trades not providing the desired impact is anything more than “prospects don’t always work out.” Getting Torres for half-a-season of Aroldis Chapman was a big win. The Yankees also got Adam Warren back in that trade and he gave the Yankees solid innings from 2016-18. Even Billy McKinney, another part of that trade, helped by being dealt for J.A. Happ in 2018.
The Andrew Miller trade didn’t provide much impact but wasn’t a complete loss either. The Yankees traded Justus Sheffield as the headliner for two years of James Paxton, who was their No. 1 starter in the 2019 postseason. Clint Frazier hit .267/.351/.485 (123 wRC+) with 20 home runs in 447 plate appearances for the Yankees from 2018-20. Frazier’s success didn’t last, but those 447 plate appearances happened.
(The Yankees reportedly had their pick of Frazier or Bradley Zimmer. Clint was the right call there, not that he turned into anything great.)
I went back through the RAB archives to see what other offers were reportedly on the table and I forgot about the Miller for Lucas Giolito stuff. Who knows whether that was actually legit, but Giolito was arguably the best pitching prospect in baseball at the time, and he’d made his MLB debut a few weeks before the deadline. After the season, the Nationals traded him to the White Sox for Adam Eaton.
Giolito went up and down in 2017 and struggled badly in 2018 (6.13 ERA and 5.56 FIP) before he finally got things figured out in 2019. It’s not hard to see how Giolito would have been more helpful than Frazier and Sheffield in 2019 and beyond, though keep in mind that his entire career path changes if he gets traded to the Yankees. Different coaches, different teammates, different environment, etc. Everything changes.
The Chapman trade was a win-win trade. The Cubs got their World Series title and the Yankees got close to seven years of an above average second basemen for a rental reliever. The Miller trade ultimately goes down an L and is yet another reminder that the team that gets the star (Miller was as close to a star as relievers get) almost always wins the trade. Prospects are cool, but they will break your heart.
(Technically the 2016 deadline sell-off "tree" is still going. The Yankees traded Warren for international bonus money in 2018, and used that to sign shortstop Alex Vargas. They also traded JP Feyereisen, who they got in the Miller trade, for infielder Brenny Escanio. Vargas and Escanio are still in the system, though neither is a prospect at this point.)
Adam asks: With the heightened value of relievers in the playoffs and considering the fact that the Yankees appear on track for playoff contention next season, wouldn’t you think the Yankees should be targeting Tanner Scott? We’re talking about a flamethrowing lefty reliever who generates strikeouts and grounders at prodigious clips, is right in the middle of his prime, and would only cost the Yankees money (he was ineligible to receive the qualifying offer due to the midseason trade). It feels like he checks a lot of boxes and possesses qualities this bullpen sorely lacks.
They should, right? It’s only money (no draft pick compensation) and Scott is one of the best relievers in baseball period, not just one of the best lefties. Elite strikeout rate, above average ground ball rate, elite exit velocity suppression. Let Devin Williams be the dedicated closer, use Scott and Luke Weaver as matchup setup men, and end games after the sixth inning. The free agent reliever market is a bit fuzzy this winter because Clay Holmes is gonna get a chance to start and Jeff Hoffman flunked two physicals (Braves and Orioles) before signing, though past offseasons indicate the big name closers (Edwin Díaz, Josh Hader) get $19M to $20M a year, and second tier guys (Hoffman, Blake Treinen, etc.) get $11M a year or so. Now that it’s mid-January and the leverage is beginning to shift from free agents to teams, I think if you can get Scott for something like three years and $13M a year, maybe with an opt out, the Yankees should do it. There is no such thing as too many good relievers. Not when you lean on them so heavily in October.
James asks: Your thoughts on what the Yankees offering Alonso a 1 year deal in terms of roster fit and cost/cap penalty?
It’s a little too late in the game now. The Yankees already signed a first base only guy (Paul Goldschmidt) and have a DH only guy (Giancarlo Stanton), so there’s no room for Pete Alonso. I would rather have Alonso in 2025 than Goldschmidt, and chances are Stanton will visit the injury list at some point, but I dunno, that’s a pretty hard sell. Even with things seemingly falling apart with the Mets (I’m gonna need to see him sign somewhere else before believing a reunion is off the table), I have to think Alonso will find a no doubt starting job somewhere. Maybe Toronto. There is no chance the Yankees relegate Goldschmidt to the bench (or even DFA him) to sign Alonso. If we could have known ahead of time Alonso’s free agency would play out like this, then holding off on signing Goldschmidt would have been the way to go. Alas.
Joe asks: Sasaki question. I know it’s not likely we get him, but……. In the pretend (and awesome) world we do get him, what would our next moves be? What pitcher is getting traded and for what?
Joe sent this question in before Roki Sasaki informed the Yankees he would not sign with them. It’s still an interesting thought exercise though. Landing Sasaki would have made it easier to trade Luis Gil or Clarke Schmidt (i.e. the starters with multiple years of cheap control), though the timing doesn’t match up well with the hottest hot stove months, right? The Kyle Tucker trade was weeks ago. Maybe Sasaki would’ve made a Schmidt for Brandon Lowe trade possible before Spring Training. I dunno.
Had the Yankees landed Sasaki, these are a few guys I would’ve pounded the table to get in a “trade Gil or Schmidt plus whatever else for him” deal:
OF Evan Carter, Rangers: I doubt Texas has soured on him so much after last season’s poor play/back injury, but hey, you’ll never get Scott Kazmir for Victor Zambrano if you don’t ask. Rangers GM Chris Young is a former pitcher and perhaps that means he overrates pitchers and underrates hitters, plus the Rangers have a lot of outfielders. Carter would not solve the infield issue, but if you have a chance a player like this, you do it, and sort out the roster later.
2B Luis García Jr., Nationals: Three years of control, lefty power, contact skills, speed, and a good glove. García is a low-OBP hacker who will drive you nuts because he swings at everything, but he does enough other things well to make up for it. You can live with the hacktastic approach to get the rest of the package as long as he’s your sixth or seventh best hitter and not your second or third best hitter.
IF Jace Jung, Tigers: Josh’s younger brother has a poor man’s Max Muncy thing going on with his lefty power and tight plate discipline. No one really seems to know where Jung will play long-term though (he’s not good at second or third bases), and the Gleyber Torres signing tells us the Tigers aren’t in a rush to put him on their infield. Jung would have been more appealing back when teams could better hide their poor second base defenders with infield shifts, though the power is real.
IF Matt McLain, Reds: I mentioned McLain in a similar exercise recently and I love him. He would help the Yankees in so many ways short and long-term. McLain solves the second base problem and the leadoff hitter problem, and you get him for five years from ages 25-29. There have been no rumblings about the Reds being open to trading McLain, who missed 2024 with shoulder surgery, but call and ask. You never know when a team will find “we’ll give you the reigning Rookie of the Year” too good to resist.
There’s also the Cardinals guys, namely Brendan Donovan but also Lars Nootbaar (and Alec Burleson). The Twins don’t match up great unless they’re willing to talk Royce Lewis. The Cubs probably don’t match up after trading Isaac Paredes because they need to keep Nico Hoerner now. Would the Brewers trade Sal Frelick or Brice Turang? Probably not, but maybe. Trading Gil or Schmidt after signing Sasaki would have been the way to go. The downside would have been the timing. It’s too late to trade for Tucker, etc.
Several asked: What about Brendan Donovan?
For reasons I explained a few weeks ago, I am very much in favor of trading Donovan, and he’s worth revisiting quickly after last week’s arbitration salary filing deadline. Donovan and the Cardinals did not agree to a deal, they filed salary figures ($2.85M vs. $3.3M), and soon thereafter John Denton reported there have been minimal talks about a long-term deal even though Donovan is hoping for one. So maybe they’re not more likely to extend him than trade him as I’ve been saying? Donovan fits the Yankees so, so well. Lefty bat with on-base skills and pull power, and good defensive chops. Three years of control. Trade for him, plop him at second base and in the leadoff spot for the next three years, and let him go. Filing salary figures doesn't mean the Cardinals don’t value Donovan highly or are willing to trade him, but it’s at least a little interesting they didn’t bother to explore an extension. Maybe he’s more available than I realized. Hmmm.
Hamish asks: I feel like the Yanks won’t necessarily push hard to move Stroman on now. Will wait til spring training for the inevitable UCL injury(s) when they’ll have a bit more leverage. What do you think?
Yeah, I could definitely see that. And you never know, right? It could be a Yankee who suffers that inevitable UCL injury. The Yankees had a projected rotation member get hurt in Spring Training in 2022 (Domingo Germán), 2023 (Carlos Rodón and Luis Severino), and 2024 (Gerrit Cole). Pitchers get hurt, it’s what they do, and the Yankees wouldn’t be the first team to wind up happy they kept a guy they wanted to trade if one of their starters feels a pop in March. Like I said the other day, I think Stroman goes before Opening Day and probably before Spring Training. Keeping him would not be a bad idea though, even at that salary. The Yankees will need starters beyond their top five. It is the nature of the sport. Keep Stroman and chances are he’ll make 15-20 starts this summer. Maybe more.
Michael asks: What are your thoughts about Elias Diaz as a backup catcher option? He'd be a right handed compliment to Wells, has some power, doesn't strike out excessively, can throw runners out and shouldn't be too expensive.
The backup catcher situation is one I’m curious to see play out over the next few weeks. Are the Yankees really comfortable with Alex Jackson, Ben Rice, and JC Escarra as the depth options behind Austin Wells? I’m thrilled the Yankees are all-in on Wells and intend to play him a lot, but they are a bad luck foul tip away from Alex Jackson, Starting Catcher For Two Months, and I don’t like that.
Díaz, 34, was the 2023 All-Star Game MVP after hitting an eighth inning go-ahead homer off Félix Bautista (video). The Orioles had that coming after promoting Bautista as “King Félix” leading into an All-Star Game hosted by Seattle. You’d think a team based in Baltimore would know that if you come at the king, you best not miss. The O’s repeatedly getting taken down a peg these last two years has been delightful.
Anyway, Díaz hit .266/.315/.398 with 20 home runs in close to 900 plate appearances the last two years, a superficially strong slash line that works out to a mere 82 wRC+ given Coors Field’s park factors. The Rockies released Díaz last August so they could give youngsters Hunter Goodman and Drew Romo a look behind the plate late in the season. He caught on with the Padres and backed up Kyle Higashioka the rest of the way.
Díaz is a dingers-and-defense type minus the defense. He graded out okay in 2024 (+5 DRS and average-ish framing), but from 2022-23, Díaz was at -31 DRS with -31.5 runs FanGraphs framing and -15 runs Statcast framing in a starter’s workload. Gary Sánchez, who was never as bad defensively as portrayed, was at -14 DRS in his worst two-year stretch as a Yankee, for reference.
The Yankees are miracle workers with catchers. They turn bad defenders into good defenders (Wells) and good defenders into great defenders (Higashioka, Jose Trevino). Can they work their magic with Díaz in Spring Training? Or do they need a longer runway to work with him? For what it’s worth, Díaz is said to be a great clubhouse guy who mentors young players. His teammates love him.
Even this late in the offseason, enough teams need catching that I think Díaz will get a Major League deal somewhere (back to the Padres?). Honestly, the backup catcher bar is so low right now that the Yankees might as well offer him a guaranteed roster spot. They have the 40-man roster space and Díaz won’t cost a ton. Even with the defensive issues, I’d rather have Díaz backing up Wells than Jackson, Rice, et al.
Geoffrey asks: I've got a few questions about Clay Holmes as a starter. What are the Mets seeing there? I remember reading that he has "three pitches" -- a sinker, a sweeper and a slider -- and that seems like...not what you want when you're talking about having three pitches to thrive as a starter. In this era, do you even need three true pitches anymore though? I have a hard time seeing him throwing it over the plate enough to get through 4-5 innings, but maybe it's all about mindset. How long do you think he stays a starter?
I’m not sure Holmes as a starter will work, but then again I didn’t think Reynaldo López as a starter would work last year, so what do I know? We are entering the Golden Age of two-pitch starters because teams don’t expect 6-7 innings a night now. Jacob deGrom, Spencer Strider, pre-Yankees Carlos Rodón, and others pitched at an ace level while leaning on two pitches something like 85% of the time (or more).
I assume the Mets view Holmes as a two times through the order starter and will limit him to 18 batters an outing. Pound away with the sinker, maybe get some quick outs to keep the pitch count in the 85-90 range, then put him in the bullpen late in the year. I don’t think the Mets view Holmes as a postseason starter. This is kinda like a “can he give us more than 70 innings from April to September?” trial.
If the Mets re-sign Pete Alonso, their infield defense will be awfully sketchy. Francisco Lindor is a brilliant defender and all-around player, but then it’s Alonso at first, Mark Vientos at third, and late career Jeff McNeil at second. Holmes starts are the days to put Vientos at DH and Luisangel Acuña at third. You can’t give Holmes a crappy infield and expect him to be effective for 4-5 innings at a clip.
I know Holmes had blown save issues last year, but he’s a smart dude and coachable. When he came to the Yankees, they made suggestions regarding his delivery and pitch mix, and he made those adjustments right away. Holmes became one of the best relievers in the game almost literally overnight. Maybe that means he picks up a changeup (or splitter?) and becomes a legit three-pitch guy. I guess we’ll find out in a few weeks.
Andrew asks: Where Anthony Rizzo plays in 2025. Any ideas? Have there been rumors? Wishing him the best!
Rizzo’s market has been dead silent. His MLBTR archive hasn’t been updated since November. He’s a respected veteran who’s had a great career, but he’s also 35 and he hit .237/.315/.358 (91 wRC+) the last two years at a position with a high offensive bar, and his defense is slipping too. The Yankees mismanaged his concussion two years ago and Rizzo seemingly hasn’t recovered*. It really sucks, but it is the reality of his situation. Unless the Marlins bring him home to South Florida (their payroll is so low that I gotta think they’ll spend some money to keep the MLBPA off their backs), I have no idea what team could sign Rizzo. Seems like he might be headed for a forced retirement.
* While I’m sure the concussion has played a role in Rizzo’s decline, we can’t rule out the possibility that it’s age-related, or that his career-long back issues caught up to him. It’s probably a little of everything.
Josh asks: Throw Tucker aside for a moment and fast forward to 2025. Do you think we compound the awesome rotation with one of Gallen or Framber? If yes, which?
Framber Valdez over Zac Gallen is the safe bet because Valdez is the game’s premier ground ball starter (career 62.5 GB%), and the Yankees love power sinkers. Gallen’s also gotten a tiny bit worse each year the last few years. He’s obviously very good, though the trend is there. I assume the Yankees would prefer Valdez. The question is whether they’ll be willing to hand out yet another big money contract to a starter. They already owe Gerrit Cole, Max Fried, and Carlos Rodón a combined $90.25M a year for the next four years. Add Valdez (or Gallen) to that mix at, say, $27M a year, and that’s $117.25M a year for four starting pitchers in their 30s. There is no such thing as a pitcher aging curve anymore, these guys get good and stay good at any age thanks to pitch design, but still, that’s a lot of money tied up in pitchers (who break). If the Yankees are going to give out a big contract next offseason, I think they should give it to Kyle Tucker or Vlad Guerrero Jr., not another starter (even another great starter).
Mark asks: Now that they have made most of their offseason moves already, which of these moves do you think the Yanks would have made if they were able to bring back Soto?
The great unknown here is what the Yankees would have done payroll-wise with Juan Soto. Would they have stuck to the $301M limit they seem to have now ($301M is the top luxury tax penalty tier)? Or would they have said screw it, we brought Soto back, let’s blow it out in 2025 and try to win the World Series this time? Probably the former, but I don’t know that for certain. Re-signing Soto would’ve changed everything.
The Yankees reportedly offered Soto 16 years and $760M, which is $47.5M per year. Max Fried ($27.25M) and Cody Bellinger ($25.46M per Joel Sherman) combined will count more against the luxury tax than Soto this year. Plus there’s Paul Goldschmidt at $12.5M. It’s easy to think re-signing Soto means no Bellinger, and the math supports it:
Option A: Soto ($47.5M) + Bellinger ($25.46M) = $72.66M
Option B: Fried ($27.25M) + Bellinger ($25.46M) + Goldschmidt ($12.5M) = $65.21M
The Yankees don’t have Fried with Option A, and no Fried makes it more difficult to trade Nestor Cortes for Devin Williams. Option A is all offense. Option B boosts offense and pitching, and saves a little cash.
Had they re-signed Soto, I think the Yankees still would have gone with Goldschmidt over Bellinger at first base because Bellinger’s 2026 player option could make him a two-year drain on payroll. My guess is Fried would be the deal that doesn’t get done with Soto. I think the Yankees would have surrounded Soto with a series of shorter term commitments rather than give a second free agent 8+ years.
Williams is the interesting one to me because the Yankees have wanted him for a while now, they admitted as much after the trade, and getting him at that price might’ve been too good to pass up. Cortes for Williams is more or less payroll neutral. The question then becomes how do the Yankees fill the vacant rotation spot? One of those one-year, $15M veterans like Charlie Morton or Justin Verlander?
I don’t think the Yankees could’ve beat out the Red Sox for Garrett Crochet. The only other starting pitchers of note traded this offseason are Jesús Luzardo, Brady Singer, and Jeffrey Springs (and Nestor). Luzardo gives off Yankees vibes, so maybe he’s the starter they get, and the offseason is Soto + Goldschmidt + Williams + Luzardo rather than Bellinger + Goldschmidt + Williams + Fried.
(I doubt Soto would’ve had any impact on the Jose Trevino/Fernando Cruz trade. That probably gets done either way.)
It’s easy to assume the Yankees would have cheaped out and surrounded Soto with low-cost players had they been able to re-sign him, but we just don’t know. They could’ve said screw it, we got Soto back, we’re going all in next year. Fried stands out as the one move that probably doesn’t happen if Soto returns. Everything else (Bellinger, Goldschmidt, Williams, etc.) seems like it would’ve still been on the table.
(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)
Comments
Michael Axisa
It's bad. I would rather vote yes/no on every player on the ballot. The BBWAA proposed changing the limit (I think to 15?) a few years ago and the Hall of Fame said no.
Brian Hanley
It’s an incredibly dumb rule.
MikeD
I believe you made the correct move by voting for Ichiro. You would not want to draw the anger and attention across multiple nations for being the guy who kept Ichiro from being unanimous. That’s not the entry you want to make!
Nicholas Pisano
That makes a good deal of sense post-Ohtani. I am not asserting that Matsui doesn't love the Yankees, which he noted he did in the quote when he signed with the Angels, while also noting the shabby treatment he received from them. He is loyal. I don't have any inside knowledge except, from the outside looking in, that there appears to be either a negative perception as to whether the Yanks are the place to land, or that they do not have the same appeal as they did when their winning at the post-season level was more consistent.
Michael Axisa
Yeah, the thought crossed my mind, though I want to believe I would have omitted him for a good reason and been able to live with it.
Mike F.
Mike, re: your consideration of not voting for Ichiro for ballot management purposes, could you imagine if you did that and your vote kept him from being unanimous? Also: congratulations for having earned the right to make that call!
John G
I think CC getting in should allow Felix to get serious consideration and even a relook at Johan Santana down the road. The standards for pitchers in the HOF has to and is changing and those guys were the best pitchers in their era
John G
"Brendan Kuty (subs. req’d) says it “seems” the Yankees’ top priority right now is finding a lefty reliever. I’d rather a second/third baseman be their top priority," You just have to laugh at this point and I guess except 3b will be crap for the 5th(?) year in a row
MikeD
Matsui and the Yankees remain very close. I think he's even considered "on staff." They call him in regularly. And IIRC, which I always don't, I believe he came back on a one day contract just so he could retire as a Yankee. Ohtani has been the driving force behind the recent signings. He wanted nothing to do with the east coast, he signed with of all teams the Angels, and then went to the Dodgers. That opened the door for Yamamoto to the Dodgers, and likely now Sasaki. This will eventually pass, but right now we're in a cycle of Japanese players wanting to go to the Dodgers, and it's because of Ohtani.
David
Mike I never comment on here but I just wanted to send my sincere congrats for getting your HoF vote. I think I speak for all of us OG RAB readers when I say it was a long time coming. Your CBS article was excellent, especially the intro! Well done!
Michael Axisa
Oh dammit. Thanks.
Kevin Carter
Mike, is there a typo in your Soto answer? His cost goes from $47.5m to €27.5m
Nicholas Pisano
Wow, Ellsbury is pegged at 9.8 WAR?
John
Just how bad the post CC opt-out/extension period was is not talked about nearly enough. Here's some fun food for thought (yes I know WAR is not the best way to compare position player vs pitchers) CC post extension through Free Agency (2012-2017) 6 years - $142M 9.8 WAR Ellsbury as a yankee 7 years - $153M (minus what they didn't pay him with that lawsuit) 9.8 WAR
Nicholas Pisano
While we are talking about Matsui, I feel that if Ichiro belongs in the Hall, that a case to have Matsui there is a strong one. Here is Godzilla's combined record between Japan and MLB. BA .293, HR 507, RBI 1649, OBP .388, OPS .910, Slugging .524 The hit against him is that he didn't arrive here until he was 29 years old, which is really an argument about timing, circumstance, and the discounting of the Japanese level of baseball. Perhaps it is time to reconsider that position in cases like this. His performance in the U.S. pretty well matched what he did in Japan when normalizing against any outliers. The man was great in all aspects of the game, classy all the way, and an RBI machine. He delivered that ring in 2009 almost single-handedly.
Nicholas Pisano
I don't feel picked on, I like to talk and write baseball but have a different day job. I wasn't speaking of NYC geographically, but of the team. Per reports on why he signed with the Angels per Yomiuri Shimbun: (he) "loved the Yankees the best" but that he no longer felt valued and when his agent called to negotiate, "The Yankees had nothing prepared [in terms of contract conditions]." So they passed on both Matsui and Damon, and then sign a bunch of guys who couldn't fill their shoes. It was gratuitously arrogant and foolish. Since 2000, the Yanks still have the best regular season record among MLB teams, but most of that is carryover from 2000-2006, which can be argued to still be the last years of the last dynasty era that began in 1994. Start at 2001, the first year of the new millennium, and the Red Sox, Giants, Dodgers, and Cardinals all have more success at the championship level and the regular season records are a bit closer. It was eight years between championships from 2000 and it is now 25 years and counting since the last one. An entire generation doesn't really know why the Yankees have the cache' that they do, and as each older generation passes, fewer will care. As to the CC comment about his last years, show me where a team won a championship solely on the basis of sabermetrics. There are none. Some of them are useful in informing the traditional metrics that measure hitting the ball, catching the ball, throwing the ball, running the bases, getting on base, and hitting in the clutch. My day job is in data transformation and analysis. Yet we handicap selections to the HOF based on these highly questionable and mostly subjective measures. But to your point, we aren't discussing the difference between an average and mediocre player, but discussing whether these last seven *years* disqualify him for the HOF, as much as he is liked.
Big Davey88
Also, not trying to pick on you... but doesn't Matsui spend most of his time living in NYC? I don't think he feels all that spurned by the Yankees.
Big Davey88
Disagree that CCs last seven years were mediocre. 2016-18 he was a legitimate above average rotation piece after he reinvented himself, among the best at limiting hard contact with numbers to back it up (481 innings, 115 ERA+, 3.76 ERA). 2013 was not good as what did work no longer worked, but he provided innings at least. If he had a better offense behind him, maybe 13 looks less ugly. 2014 was lost to injury. 2015 was the reinvention with ups and downs (and the David Ortiz strikeout people love). 2019, yeah he was cooked. EDIT: Even if you average out CCs final seven years, the good with the bad, you get a 98 ERA+... essentially a league average pitcher. Then I suppose our discussion turns into our differences in the meanings of mediocre vs. average.
Marc Rosenberg
Mike, I just want to tell you how smart and handsome you are.
Will
It's funny, looking at those Soto/non-Soto options in the last question is the first time I've thought, "huh, maybe missing out on Soto was better?" It certainly feels like they've potentially made themselves a more well-rounded team in this scenario. (Though Soto + Fried and the others is obviously the best option.) As for the HOF ballot, the PED argument of "MLB already decided on the punishment" is unique, and I'm not really sure I agree with it. But I do still think the PED guys should be in the Hall, just for the reason of "I don't care that they used PEDs".
Nicholas Pisano
Congrats on the HOF voting. Ichiro definitely. Not wild about any of the others, except maybe Sabathia, especially pitching during the PED era, though I do question whether the last 7 mediocre seasons disqualify him. Anyone can take a slice out of someone's career to justify a vote, unless you are Bernie Williams or Don Mattingly, who both belong there ahead of almost anyone else eligible this year (except Ichiro), but they were passed by. Bummer on Sasaki. Japanese players seem to prefer the West Coast, which I get (sort of). But I think there is an unspoken perception, and that is that the Yankees are no longer a premier destination in Japan. I think it goes to the awful way they treated Hideki Matsui, as was noted by the The Yomiuri Shimbun in an interview with him. When you treat your World Series MVP that way, why would anyone want to sign with that management except for the money, if you need a comeback/break, or want a place to retire in the spotlight? Then look at the last few Yankee rosters and top free agent dramas, and see if I don't have it right. Finally, I'd like to get your opinion on Bregman. Seems to be taking too long to get signed. He may not want to be on the Yanks or they may not want him because of the sign stealing scandal. But I get the sneaking feeling that if they pass, this will be similar to the situation to when they could have had Ortiz because Boston thought he was getting old and slow. Then the guy signs late and hits .330 that year with a World Series ring. In any event, they need a third baseman and a reliable bat and OBP. Bregman fits the bill and allows Chisholm to go back home to second base. Judge needs all the lineup protection he can get.
hbcobra
I have been looking forward to reading your HOF write-up for a while. It did not disappoint. Congrats on your first ballot!
John M
Congratulations Mike on your first ballot! While I don't agree with every single choice, your arguments are very well-reasoned and I applaud your public posting of your ballot and your detailed explanations of the choices you made. All voters who are given this great honor should be willing (and, really required) to stand behind their choices since they are the select group that gets to decide on the Hall for all of the rest of us.
DZB
One other comment on the HoF - when CC retired, I didn't feel like the consensus was '1st ballot Hall of Famer'. It might have been more like a case where he might eventually get in. It certainly feels like opinions have drifted in his favor, perhaps because it's become increasingly obvious that the classic HoF thresholds/standards for pitchers are outdated (and a recognition of how well he compares historically to other LHPs).
The WallBreakers
I know it's easy to say Abreu's best quality was walking a lot, but as a Yankee (his age 32-34 2.5 seasons) he hit .295/.378/.465/.843 120 OPS+ 43 HR 243 RBI 260 R 95 2B 9 3B 57 SB 190 BB 276 SO 372 Games
Brian Harvey
Congrats again on the HoF ballot. I feel like a lot of people, myself included started messing around on blogspot and dreamed of it paying off. You made it real. Well deserved.
Zack
You’re forgetting that Bobby Abreu was as sweet as candy
DZB
I just finished reading Mike's HoF explainer article (just before this post appeared - great timing!). My primary thought at the end is 'how stupid it is to limit the ballot to 10 players'. I don't really understand the logic of limiting the number of choices on a ballot given the aim is to elect deserving players to the HoF, which is an aim that doesn't include a caveat like 'as long as they fit on a ballot with limited choices and a potentially long backlog'. I don't know if others agree (I would be interested to hear if Mike thinks the limit is good/bad)?
Jingling Baby
Mike! Congratulations on your ballot. Your readers know that you put an incredible amount of thought and intelligence into your decisions. That being said.. BOBBY ABREU over Andruw Jones?? J/k. I know it’s the bias of watching him as a Yankee but his fear of the wall and bad defense tainted him severely and it seems like his best quality was…walking a lot. Interested to hear why Utley over Jimmy Rollins, why no K Rod, your thoughts on Omar and whether Andy has a legit chance on getting in. Also whether Posada will get in at some point. Maybe you can do an in person Q&A / bar hangout for charity or something. Anyway, congratulations on your part in bestowing such an incredible honor on the players that do get it. You earned it!!
