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Quick thoughts after the Yankees acquire Devin Williams
🕑 Added 2024-12-13 18:08:33 +0000 UTC
UPDATE: It is official. The Yankees have announced the trade and it is as reported: Williams for Cortes, Durbin, and cash ($2M per Bob Nightengale). The Yankees open next season at home against the Brewers, so Williams will get to face his former team right away. Nestor should get a nice hand during Opening Day baseline introductions. He's always gotten a good pop during those things.
ORIGINAL POST: The Yankees have a new closer. They have a trade in place to acquire Devin Williams from the Brewers for Nestor Cortes and Caleb Durbin, per all the trustworthy reporters. So much for Durbin being the guy at second base, eh? The Yankees reportedly had interest in Williams during the Winter Meetings. This didn’t come out of nowhere. They open a 40-man roster spot with the deal.
Williams, 30, has one year of control remaining, like Cortes. MLBTR projects them to get identical $7.7M salaries through arbitration, though the Yankees are sending the Brewers an undisclosed sum of cash in the trade, so it's not a wash, financially. Williams slides into the closer’s role and frees up Luke Weaver for fireman work. The updated bullpen:
Closer: RHP Devin Williams
Moment of Truth: RHP Luke Weaver
High leverage: RHP Jake Cousins, RHP Ian Hamilton
Former Cubs: RHP Scott Effross, RHP Mark Leiter Jr.
Long: RHP JT Brubaker, RHP Marcus Stroman
Depth: RHP Clayton Beeter, RHP Yoendrys Gómez, RHP Jonathan Loáisiga (eventually)
There’s still room for improvement there. The Yankees could definitely use a lefty even though Leiter and Weaver (and Williams) are effective against lefties. There are rumblings about a Tim Hill reunion, so we’ll see where that goes. It would make sense given his effectiveness last year and the team’s preferred profile of weak contact on that ground. Hill or no Hill, I don’t think the Yankees are done adding to the bullpen.
Williams missed the start of this past season with stress fractures in his back but was as good as ever once he returned in July: 1.25 ERA (2.06 FIP) with 43.2 K% and 12.5 BB%. Walk rates around 12% have been a constant for Williams, but so has the K% that starts with a 4. He combines elite strikeout rates with elite exit velocity suppression (career 85.2 mph average exit velocity allowed). One of the best relievers in baseball, truly.
The Max Fried signing allowed the Yankees to trade a starter and I don’t think for a second this takes trading Luis Gil (or Clarke Schmidt?) for Kyle Tucker is off the table. The updated rotation depth chart:
1. RHP Gerrit Cole
2. LHP Max Fried
3. LHP Carlos Rodón
4. RHP Luis Gil
5. RHP Clarke Schmidt
6. RHP Marcus Stroman
7. RHP JT Brubaker
8. RHP Cody Poteet
9. RHP Will Warren
You needn’t try hard to see the Yankees trading Gil (plus other stuff) for Tucker, salary dumping Stroman, then signing a free agent like, say, Walker Buehler to backfill innings. We’ve heard the Yankees connected to Jack Flaherty too. Maybe they go Charlie Morton, Max Scherzer, or Justin Verlander on a one-year deal? I dunno. Point is, do not assume that rotation you see above is final. More moves are coming.
Cortes, 30, was a revelation after rejoining the Yankees in 2021 and I feel like he’s become underrated. He threw a team-leading 174.1 innings with a 3.77 ERA in 2024 and the underlying numbers supported it: 3.84 FIP and 3.64 xERA. He’s a +3 WAR starter and those don’t grow on trees. You have to give to get though, plus Nestor is coming off a flexor strain. I love the guy, but he’s not without risk.
I never really bought the “Durbin is our second baseman” hype coming from Brian Cashman and Aaron Boone these last few weeks. His contact quality in Triple-A was terrible and he’s a good defender, but not a great defender. Your upside is limited when you have as little hard-hit ability as Durbin. I’m glad we can put to bed the idea that the Yankees would plug him in at second base full-time next season and let him go.
As for what the Yankees will do at second base, you got me. Spring Training is still two months away. Plenty of time to figure it out. Oswald Peraza is out of options and has a higher offensive ceiling than Durbin, plus he's a much better defender, so maybe it’s him. Or the Yankees could bring Gleyber Torres back! I would be all about that on a short-term deal, though supposedly the Yankees are moving on. Forget that, I guess.
Nestor’s a personal favorite, he’s good and fun, but you trade one year of your sixth best starter (and a Grade-C prospect) for one year of one five best relievers in the world eight days a week. And hey, Williams will be a qualifying offer candidate with a typical Williams season in 2025. The Yankees could recoup a prospect down the road that way. Let's not get ahead of ourselves though. Good trade. Sad to see Nestor go, but this is a trade the Yankees have to make 10 times out of 10.
Comments
Alex G
You would certainly hope they know their players better than us...but I will never give them that benefit of the doubt after Cashman turned his nose at Bryce Harper (who wanted to be here) and said we had no need for him because we were set in LF/CF with Gardy, Andujar, and Frazier.
Mike
And the Yankees don’t like to do the higher AAV. It’s why Fried gets 8 years and why they still have DJ for two more. It’s a Hal philosophy that in most cases hurts at the end of the deals.,
DZB
I think it all comes down to years and other needs. If they were to pick up Bellinger and felt like Bregman filled one of the last major gaps, I would be okay with him coming in on a shorter deal at higher AAV. But MLBTR has him predicted to get seven years for $182MM (and most of their projections have proven to be low thus far). That contract would be stupid for this team. But three for $105MM ($35MM AAV) - a huge overpay - would be much more attractive (compared to the MLBTR projection of $26MM AAV
DZB
Despite less time of team control and a lower ceiling, I feel like Schmidt has more value to the team - he just feels like the more likely to put together a solid full season (as perhaps a #3). But they know their players better than I do, so I imagine they believe in Gil (or, at the very least, think they can hold him for a bigger trade - perhaps if they somehow managed to sign Sasaki)
kyle
Just please don't give Bregman a lot of money I'm not sure you could even count on him to be a good hitter next year let alone when he's 35+
Alex G
Yea, I would move him or Schmidt for a legit bat and just sign starting pitching. The position players remaining in free agency stink.
DZB
It shocks me that they would let Gil be the reason they wouldn't make a deal. Someone like Dominguez I can understand, but selling high on Gil seems like a good way to cash in on his success (he feels like a high variance player, and an ongoing injury risk, so you wouldn't be terribly surprised if he's mediocre or misses much of the 2025 season)
Alex G
So no Tucker. Maybe if Gil finishes in the top-5 of the Cy Young race or the Yankees pivot to get a bat who can be almost as impactful, it won't be the end of the world. However, as of this moment, Yankees are running out a bottom 5-7 lineup entirely reliant on another MVP season from Judge where he remains fully healthy. The FA options are awful, they still need to trade for an impact bat.
Alex G
Astros clearly wanted Gil and now we know Cashman wasn't willing to include Gil in the trade. What the hell is this lineup even going to be now? It is awful.
Mark P in VT
My guess is that Bellinger will be a Yankee. Maybe a conversation happened with the Cubs lowering the price a bit if the Yanks didn't get Tucker? (Not sure why the Cubs would help out the Yanks but...)
Guy Gregory
You beat me to it. Wesneski is rumored to be the third player. Paredes indicates there will be no reunion with Bregman. Smith seems to be the big piece. Bellinger will definitely be surplus and excess salary. Can they Pivot to the Cardinals or D'Backs for a lefty hitting outfielder?
David L.
Yeah it looks close to done… not sure where Yankees pivot. Offense still stinks. Wonder if this deal makes Bellinger more available or less? Tucker move especially would extension would mean they are going for it
MikeD
Might have to wait one year on that.
Mark P in VT
According to mlbtraderumors, Cubs are close to acquiring Tucker.
Michael Axisa
Nah. I see guys like George Lombard Jr. and Spencer Jones as Grade-B. Durbin's south of that. It is a unique skill set but we're still talking about a guy who fits best as a starter on a bad team or a utility guy on a good team.
Michael Axisa
I think the pendulum on Arraez has swung from overrated to underrated. It is a special hit tool. The Yankees need some more guys who can hit the ball out of the park though. They had a slow singles hitting 1B last year (though Arraez >>> 2024 Rizzo). Can't do it again.
brian m
Great move on paper. Injuries will probably determine who wins this trade
The Original Drew
Every offseason I do a best case scenario depth chart in the notes of my phone. At the beginning of the offseason I had Williams set in the closer spot, but once Soto got off the board I thought there wouldn't be the prospect capital to go get him, so I am pleasantly surprised by the deal. Now go get Kyle Tucker and I will officially be over Juan Soto.
David from Sunny Jax
Arraez seems like a worse idea than Durbin was to me. Weak contact, doesn’t walk, doesn’t run, poor defense. He’s a singles machine and while he’s really good at that one thing, the negatives really erase the value of that. Hard pass for me.
Alex G
Lets get Kyle Tucker now please!
Cptncha
Arraez would make Gleyber look like a Gold Glover
Mark P in VT
Does it make sense to try and trade for Luis Arraez and Dillon Cease? Do the Yankees have what they would want? Arraez could go to 2B and Cease as a 3-4? On the surface, they seem like a good fit for the Yankees.
Kevin Parlato
Right now, I approve. Hopefully, I will not weep if he breaks down. I've become awash in pessimistic thoughts over the past fifteen years. Alas.
MikeD
Dynamite closer, and pushes Weaver into the 7th/8th role. Bullpen much stronger. Yankees doing well on run prevention, so can we begin to add offense?
steven slootsky
I still think Brian Cashman is elite. Great move
Ken Celelli
A+ trade, like you said, you make this deal every day of the week. Love Nestor but Williams is such a massive upgrade to the bullpen
Jingling Baby
I know it’s a tiny sample, but it’s the only appearance of his that I saw all year. He looked completely overwhelmed and scared against the Mets. That doesn’t make me brim with confidence. Also, was Durbin really a C prospect? I would have thought B? Bye funky Nestor, not your fault the last memory of you is a terrible one.
