RAB Thoughts
patreon
Quick thoughts after the Yankees trade for Cody Bellinger
🕑 Added 2024-12-17 22:44:00 +0000 UTC
Coming soon to the Bronx.
UPDATE: The Yankees have announced the trade. It is official and as reported: Poteet for Bellinger and cash. Also, the Yankees announced the Max Fried deal earlier in the day Tuesday, so that's official too.
ORIGINAL POST: For a team that lost Juan Soto, the Yankees are having a pretty good offseason. What felt inevitable is now official: Cody Bellinger has been traded to the Yankees. Well, it’s not official yet, it hasn’t been announced, but it’s done, and it’s a straight salary dump. Bellinger and $5M for Cody Poteet in a Cody swap, per Joel Sherman. Add in Max Fried and Devin Williams, and that’s three major additions in a week’s time.
Bob Nightengale says Bellinger was told he’ll be playing center field, which is the best use of his skills, and it means the Yankees still need a first baseman and either a second or third baseman. It also indicates the Yankees are comfortable with Jasson Domínguez’s less than stellar defense in Yankee Stadium’s spacious left field. Either that or El Marciano isn’t in their big league plans for 2025.
Bellinger, 29, is of course Clay’s son, so I guess I have some “best father/son duos to play for the Yankees” research ahead of me. Hopefully James Smyth or Sarah Langs or literally anyone else beats me to it and saves me the trouble. ANYWAY, Bellinger slashed .266/.325/.426 (109 wRC+) with 18 home runs in 130 games around a broken rib (he ran into the ivy-less brick wall at Wrigley Field in April) this past season.
The 2024 slash line is down from Bellinger’s MVP-vote-getting 2023 effort – .307/.356/.525 (136 wRC+) with 26 homers – when he drastically outperformed his contact quality and had an unrepeatable .279 AVG (.386 BABIP) in two-strike counts. The MLB average in two-strike counts is a .168 AVG (.287 BABIP). Bellinger’s 2023 two-strike performance is not something anyone can do year after year. (He hit .215 with a .281 BABIP in two-strike counts in 2024.)
I was already planning to do something on Bellinger for Friday’s post and I’ll have more on the trade then. The short version is 2024 is much closer to the real him than 2023, meaning a 110 wRC+ hitter with speed and defense, and he fits Yankee Stadium very well as a pull heavy lefty. Bellinger was told he’s playing center field, but he can also play both outfield corners and first base. There’s some versatility there. Again, I’ll have more Friday.
As for Poteet, he was a fun little surprise this past season, giving the Yankees 24.1 good innings (2.22 ERA and 4.03 FIP) basically out of nowhere. He was no higher than seventh on the rotation depth chart though, which currently looks like this with Poteet and Nestor Cortes traded away:
1. RHP Gerrit Cole
2. LHP Max Fried
3. LHP Carlos Rodón
4. RHP Luis Gil
5. RHP Clarke Schmidt
6. RHP Marcus Stroman
7. RHP JT Brubaker
8. RHP Will Warren
Warren’s name came up in Bellinger trade talks and my guess is the Yankees indicated he was on the table if the Cubs ate more money, which they didn’t, so they got Poteet instead. Bellinger picked up his $27.5M player option this offseason and is owed $32.5M in 2025. That’s a $27.5M salary plus a $5M buyout of his $25M player option for 2026. For luxury tax purposes, it’s $27.5M in 2025 ($32.5M minus the $5M the Cubs are paying) and then $20M in 2026 ($25M salary minus the $5M buyout that was taxed in 2025) if Bellinger picks up the player option.
Bellinger checks a lot of boxes for the Yankees. He’s a lefty who pulls the ball in the air a ton and strikes out infrequently, he’s a good defender at multiple positions of need, he’s on a short-term contract, and he’s plenty familiar with playing in big markets after cutting his teeth with the Dodgers and then moving on to the Cubs. If you’re expecting 2023 Bellinger, you’ll be disappointed. The 2024 version is plenty good enough though.
Trade for LaMonte Wade Jr., re-sign Gleyber Torres on a short-term prove yourself deal, add more to the bullpen, and avoid those landmine free agent hitters in their 30s. That’s the Axisa dream offseason. Do that in addition to what they’ve already done, and the Yankees will be in good shape post-Soto. That doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll be a better team, but they will be pretty darn good all things considered. Welcome, Cody. And so long, other Cody.
Comments
MikeD
I certainly wanted Soto back, but knowing that Hal would have restricted budget post the signing, and then cut next year, means you could be right. The team might not be quite as much fun without watching Soto and Judge hit back-to-back, but there's a chance they'll be better.
Tom Shea
I'm a Yankees fan that is also a Cubs season ticket holder - the projections that Bellinger would have hit 24 HR for the NYY last season is too low. Wrigley Field had historical low HR numbers last season because the wind blew in off the lake all season. I saw way too many HR die on the warning track in 2024.
Nicholas Pisano
You may be correct on that point.
B-Mo
LOL. Plan A was big splash followed by has beens and nobodies. Only the hated Soto saved us from that.
Nicholas Pisano
As you may have determined from my response to your posts on the fantasy hot stove season, I am happy about this transaction. I am also surprised and was wrong about the Yanks doing the wrong thing after losing Soto. I thought Bellinger would be a great addition *with* Soto, but he is still part of the plan I set out if I were king of the world. They have made some very good moves, which is a break from their pattern over several seasons of making one splash and then signing has-beens and nobodies. Doesn't excuse years of mismanagement, but I'll follow this Hot Stove and see where it takes this franchise. So now they need to sign Bregman and trade the slow-footed, "watch-the-ball-down-the-middle" Stanton to one of the big spending west coast teams. I think it would be best for the Yankees and for Stanton, who seems more energetic on the Pacific side of the continent. Signing Bregman, who knows how to win and has something to prove, will allow Jazz to go to second base. That leaves first base and left field. It's make or break for The Martian. Give him a shot. That leaves just picking up a lefty first baseman. There has to be someone out there with some pop who can hit .260 and not wilt with men on base.
Howard Newville
Apparently this is the fourth father-son duo for NYY, after Yogi and Dale Berra, Ron and Ike Davis, and Mark Leiters Sr and Jr https://www.mlb.com/news/cody-bellinger-follows-father-clay-to-yankees
Michael Axisa
About Lowe? He'd be a really good fit. I'm not sure Texas is really open to trading him though. Seems like a lot of speculation.
Nick
He had a down year in his walk year. You don't think its conceivable that he could bounce back in '25 and get paid more?
Zack
Ha! Hard to believe a giant guy’s comp is one of the best speed guys ever
The Original Drew
They have other needs and are trying to get under the LT threshold and they just traded for Jake Burger.
David from Sunny Jax
What do you think, Mike?
David from Sunny Jax
Copied from MLB Rumors, just to give full credit.
David from Sunny Jax
“With the Rangers wanting to keep the payroll below the CBT threshold of $241 million, they only have about $27 million to work with to add another two or three bullpen arms and the left-handed bat that Young would like. In order to make a bigger splash in the bullpen or with the bat (perhaps Joc Pederson), it may require the Rangers to create a little more financial flexibility. And the trade for Burger sure seems to make Nathaniel Lowe’s expected $10 million arbitration salary stand out. It might make sense to move Lowe and reallocate the money to other still-pressing needs.” Low-power first basemen have long been unappreciated, and Lowe is no exception. The reason I use the wRC+ stat all the time is that it gives proper weights to each offensive event – singles, doubles, triples, home runs, walks, and HBPs – while also adjusting for the player’s home ballpark (100 is average). Despite hitting ten fewer home runs, Lowe arguably outhit Christian Walker this year, given Lowe’s 121 wRC+ against Walker’s 119. Lowe bats left-handed and is a pretty good deal at less than $11MM for his age-29 season.
David from Sunny Jax
Came here to say this. Here’s what Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News said about it just a few days ago. He’s a pretty reliable source for Rangers news…
DZB
Slightly off topic, but looking at Fangraphs to check on stats of FA and trade targets got me back to the ZiPS projections for the NYY. The summary ends by saying that the projections for Spencer Jones "are much worse than the scouting consensus", but hidden amongst the details is the fact that his top near-age comp is HoFer Lou Brock. I'd take that outcome...
MikeD
Fans: Bregman -- No Alonso -- No Walker -- No Santander -- No Gleyber -- No There's pretty much a no for most of the players still out there from many fans point of view. Fortunately, fans don't run teams as we'd have no team! I do wonder if the best approach is to go Rays to fill out the rest of the roster. We have big players, so maybe the team should be looking at non-star names that collectively will deliver at least league-average play. Sign Austin Hays to pair with Dominguez in left, which will allow Bellinger to play 1B at times if Dominguez is in center. Trade for Wade, so Belli can platoon with him. Shift Jazz to 2B and pick up someone like Josh Rojas for 3B. He's a lefty, good defender. Non-sexy, but adding in Hays, Rojas and Wade could overall make the Yankees stronger. For the record, I really don't want Rojas, but using him as an example, but I'd prefer a stopgap like that than overspending.
JPL
I don’t get why Gleyber would sign a “prove it” deal. Those are for guys coming off an injury, or who had an outlier walk year. Gleyber has been Gleyber for 7 seasons. What’s he going to prove in year 8? Either a team wants him, or they don’t. There’s nothing to prove.
MikeD
The longer-term plan can include a one-year stopgap. Probably should since we're limited by the available free agents and players that teams will trade. Wade's a high OBP player. That has value in front of Judge.
gary noorigian
I’ve heard no mention of any interest in Carlos Santana , yet he had a similar WAR to Walker , is a switch - hitter and won a GG last year. He’d probably sign a one year contract which is also appealing .
Brad Schlesinger
hard to get excited about a guy everyone wanted to avoid like the plague the past two years. there’s no objective way to feel good about the offense right now. losing soto blew an unfixable hole in the offense that bellinger, wade, gleyber and whoever else can’t fix. it’s gonna be ugly, especially if they go arenado, goldschmidt snd others from the decrepit squad
Will H.
What do you mean by five year plan? Like focus on building 2030 championship team and write off the Judge / Cole era?
Zack
Having Bellinger promised CF makes it easier to sell FAs on being the 1B, too
Sam Forman
Gleyber was the linchpin of their sloppy play. Would much prefer they sign Kim.
Mark Davis
Why would TEX trade him?
Mark Davis
Let’s give the Martian the benefit of the doubt: he was coming off a serious injury last year. Bellinger is a veteran and proven CF; it doesn’t necessarily say anything negative about Dominguez that they’re choosing to play Belli at his best position. LF at YS is hard to learn mid-season. Hopefully a full and healthy spring training will help!
Dan G
Get Arenado and Bryant and we’ll be the best team come 2017! Seriously tho not sure how to feel. He’s such a confusing player to analyze. Hopefully he puts 25-30 over the short porch
pkmuldy
Love the addition, but a little concerning that they're already penciling him in at CF. Feels like we're all ignoring what the team has been saying about their assessment of Dominguez for the last few months: 1. A worse all-around player than Verdugo 2. A worse right-handed hitter than Jose Trevino 3. And now, not a real CF So they think he's a lefty platoon bat with speed who was trained in our system, which means his eyebrow manicuring game is strong. His ability to hit a cutoff man, or take a secondary lead, or run hard out of the box on a ball that may or may not be home run? Not so good.
Mike Bono
Don’t want Naylor at all but I’m also not understanding the Wade interest. Guy has done very little in his career. Five year plan needs to be the goal.
William
Lowe would be great, especially cause he has two arb years left.
Mike Farley
So far, so good. Keep it going Cash!
William
Would be funny if the Yankees somehow acquired Bregman and Naylor. Acquire all the Yankee enemies.
Samantha Green
Smyth did indeed beat you to it 😂 (Mike Medvin’s post, but credits James.) https://bsky.app/profile/mikemedvin.bsky.social/post/3ldjtiuygsc2g
Michael Axisa
Naylor would be great. I just figure Wade will come much cheaper in terms of prospects, and is more realistically attainable. (Plus I could see the Yankees being weird about the rock the baby thing.)
The Original Drew
Nate Lowe would be my ideal target at 1B.
William
Not sure I get the Wade Jr love. Not even a 2 win player last few years, and already 30. Totally fine but not great. I’m much more on the Josh Naylor train. Better and 3 years younger.
