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December 20th, 2024: Bellinger, Sasaki, Mailbag
🕑 Added 2024-12-20 11:00:12 +0000 UTCDevin Williams (Tuesday), Max Fried (Wednesday), and Cody Bellinger (Thursday) had their introductory Zoom call/press conferences earlier this week and the most interesting thing to come out of them was Fried revealing his dog’s name is Apollo Fried. The second most interesting thing was Williams saying Trent Grisham had a hand in developing his Airbender. Back when they were Brewers’ prospects, Grisham faced Williams in an intrasquad game and told him he could easily pick up the spin on his changeup, so Williams tweaked the grip, and boom, the Airbender was born. “That became my out pitch. My go-to,” Williams told Bryan Hoch. I thought that was interesting. More interesting than Fried saying he signed with the Yankees because he wants to win, anyway (I’m sure the $218M had nothing to do with it). At least Fried kept it short and straight to the point. The press conference equivalent of 6 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 6 K on 93 pitches. Also, Aaron Boone confirmed Williams is the closer, which, duh. Here now is today’s post as Nestor Cortes says goodbye to the Yankees and their fans.
1. Why Bellinger, why now? Tuesday the Yankees swung a trade that felt inevitable once Juan Soto signed with the Mets. They landed Cody Bellinger in an all-Cody swap with the Cubs. Cody Poteet went to Chicago and Cody Bellinger (and $5M) came to the Yankees. The Cubbies had to unload money and the trade reflects that. Bellinger was basically free. (With all due respect, if the Yankees miss Poteet in 2025, they’re already screwed.)
Cody’s father Clay played four big league seasons and won three World Series rings (1999-2000 Yankees and 2002 Angels), and the Yankees say the Bellingers will be the fourth father/son duo to play for the team. They’ll join Yogi and Dale Berra, Ron and Ike Davis, and the two Mark Leiters. It’ll be hard to top the Berras as the most productive father/son duo in franchise history, but I’m open to Cody and the Bellingers making a run at it. Jumping the Davises for second place is doable (Ron was damn good from 1979-81).
"It's truly wild," Bellinger said about him and his father both playing for the Yankees. "He was very excited (about the trade). He plays it cool, but I know deep down, he's very excited."
This trade is the culmination of years of rumors. Bellinger was a target at the 2023 trade deadline and I said he was the best outfield option for the Yankees at the time, but by time the deadline arrived, the Yankees were taking on water and the Cubs had a July hot streak that pushed them into contention. The Yankees again had interest in Bellinger last offseason and I again said he made sense. Once it became clear Soto was a real possibility though, Bellinger went on the back-burner.
Now 29, Bellinger slashed .266/.325/.426 (109 wRC+) with 18 home runs and nine steals in 130 games in 2024. Few strikeouts (15.6%), average-ish walk rate (7.9%), good defense and baserunning. The Cubbies traded Bellinger for payroll reasons, and because the Kyle Tucker pickup made him expendable. He was a pretty obvious fit for the Yankees. Why? And why get him now? Let’s dive in.
Why now?
To take that question literally, the Yankees had to trade for Bellinger when they did because the Cubs were reportedly determined to trade him Tuesday, either to the Yankees or to an unknown second team (Jon Heyman says the Blue Jays were involved). "I know the other destination. I won't say who it was, but if we didn't pull him down, he would've been off the board,” Brian Cashman told Bryan Hoch. So that’s why now.
(That had to be the world’s saddest bidding war if Poteet sealed the deal.)
In the bigger picture, why trade for Bellinger now rather than get him at the 2023 deadline or sign him last offseason? Well, I did just explain it. The Yankees had begun to tumble out of the race in the weeks leading up to the 2023 trade deadline while the Cubs stacked a few wins to get into the race, and last offseason the priority was Soto, which is understandable. The circumstances pushed the Yankees away from Bellinger at the 2023 deadline and last offseason, not necessarily Bellinger himself.
The Yankees traded for Bellinger now because, once Soto and Tucker came off the board, he became the best available option in terms of what he does on the field, the acquisition cost, and the alternatives. The alternatives are free agents in their 30s seeking multiple years at big money. Those regrettable landmine contracts that make the most sense when you believe you’re a piece away from a World Series, not when you have to rebuild half your lineup like the Yankees, and get more athletic and better defensively in the process.
After losing a player like Soto, it can be easy to overreact, and fall into the trap of signing a bunch of free agents to plug holes, leaving yourself with an aging roster, a bloated payroll, and regret. This happened after Robbie Canó left. The Yankees pivoted to Carlos Beltrán, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Brian McCann, and wound up with a roster that won fewer games the next year and was in worse shape long-term. Bellinger hits the sweet spot on the field and financially post-Soto. That’s why now.
He might pop in Yankee Stadium
There’s a chance Bellinger goes full Granderson and completely takes off in Yankee Stadium. He is one of the game’s best pulled fly ball artists, placing no worse than the 86th percentile in pulled fly ball rate the last four years (89th percentile in 2024). Bellinger’s contact quality is not great, he was in the 47th percentile in max exit velocity in 2024, but when you pull the ball, you get the most out of whatever hard-hit ability you have. It’s the Isaac Paredes skill set, though Bellinger’s hard-hit ability is better than Paredes’.
Here are Bellinger’s 2024 fly balls and line drives overlaid on Yankee Stadium:
I had to pick a stadium for the graphic so I picked Yankee Stadium. I don’t mean for this to be a “look how many more home runs Bellinger would have hit in Yankee Stadium!” thing, because Bellinger did not play in Yankee Stadium the last two years, and he’s not going to hit those same batted balls in 2025. Just look at the direction though. Look where Bellinger’s farthest hit balls go. The short porch beckons.
Furthermore, 2024 was a very windy year at Wrigley Field for whatever reason. Windy as in it blew in and kept the ball in the park. Over the last three seasons Wrigley Field suppressed lefty homers to 90% of the league average, per Statcast. It was 78% (!) in 2024. Yankees Stadium has inflated lefty homers to 119% the league average over the last three years. Bellinger’s going from one of the worst ballparks for his offensive skill set to one of the best. You only play half your games at home, but still.
“You don’t want the elements of the field to dictate how you feel. Whether it’s a cold day or hot day, winds blowing in or winds blowing out. You kind of want to stay within yourself and stick with your plan,” Bellinger said Thursday. “That’s for me, just how I stay even-keeled. But on the other side, (playing in Yankee Stadium) definitely excites me.”
The biggest reason Bellinger might not pull a Curtis Granderson is plate discipline. The Grandyman was a very disciplined hitter who perennially posted chase rates in the low 20% range and walk rates north of 10%. Bellinger is more of a free swinger with higher than average chase and swing rates. He does not swing and miss much (10.0% swinging strikes in 2024), but he swings a lot, and that sometimes leads to poor contact and easy outs. Granderson was better at hunting hittable pitches.
The thing is though, we’ve seen a disciplined version of Bellinger in the past. During his heyday with the Dodgers, he walked a ton and had low chase rates, then he got away from that and became the current contact-focused version of himself. It shows there are multiple ways to be successful, but the disciplined version of Bellinger is the best version. Can he get back to that? If not, Bellinger can still be pretty good, and either way his batted ball direction is very, very short porch friendly.
The defensive versatility is a plus
At Max Fried’s press conference earlier this week, Aaron Boone shot down the report that Bellinger was told he’ll play center field. Boone said Bellinger told him he’ll play wherever the Yankees need him – “Don’t worry where you play me, I’ll play wherever,” Boone recalled Bellinger telling him, per Pete Caldera – and the Yankees will make a final decision on the defensive alignment once the offseason is complete.
That is part of Bellinger’s appeal. He gives the Yankees coverage at four positions (first base and the three outfield spots), all of which he plays adequately to great, and three of which are an immediate need. The Yankees have the flexibility to put Bellinger in center, Jasson Domínguez in left, and get a first baseman. They can put Bellinger at first, Domínguez in center, and get a left fielder. Flexibility equals possibilities.
I assume Bellinger will spend most of his time in the outfield simply because it will be easier to find a big bat at first base than it will be to find a big bat in the outfield, especially in center. But who knows what the offense will bring? I don’t think anyone expected Tucker to get traded. Perhaps something unexpected shakes loose in the next few weeks and Bellinger at first makes the most sense. Whatever it is, the Yankees can make it work.
Lo, a player who runs the bases well
The Yankees were the slowest and worst baserunning team in baseball this past season, and Bellinger will help correct that. He’s not going to steal 40 bases, but he might steal 15-20 (43-for-54 the last three years, an 80% success rate), and he has speed. Some 2024 numbers:
Sprint speed: 28.4 ft/s (MLB average: 27.0 ft/s)
Home-to-first time: 4.11 seconds (MLB average: 4.46 seconds)
Extra-base taken rate: 44% (MLB average: 42%)
FanGraphs baserunning: +1.4 runs
Statcast baserunning: +2 runs
I know a +2 runs of baserunning value doesn’t seem like much, and it’s not in the grand scheme of things, but only 80 players provided that much on the bases in 2024, per Statcast. That’s out of the 608 players who ran the bases at least once. Bellinger’s been +2 runs or better on the bases each of the last four years and six times in eight big league seasons, with 2019 (+1 run) and 2020 (-1 run) the two exceptions.
The Yankees as a team were dead last in baserunning value and dead last in extra-base taken rate (36%) in 2024. This is one of those things they just have to get better at. I’m not asking them to run wild and play 1980s baseball, but you have to go first-to-third once in a while. You have to be able to move up on a wild pitch. The Yankees have been very bad at those things the last few years. Bellinger alone won’t fix it, but he is a step in the right direction. He brings a baserunning element the Yankees sorely need.
It’s a short-term contract
No disrespect to Mr. Poteet, but the Yankees gave up so little to get Bellinger that he was basically a free agent signing. Last offseason Bellinger was one of those Scott Boras clients who got squeezed into a one-year contract with player options, and he picked up his player option after the World Series. Here's what’s left on Bellinger’s contract:
2025: $27.5M (Cubs paying $2.5M)
2026: $25M player option ($5M buyout) (Cubs paying $2.5M)
The $5M the Cubs are sending the Yankees will be spread out across 2025 and 2026, per Jeff Passan, so Chicago will either pay half the buyout or part of Bellinger’s salary in 2026. The fact Bellinger picked up his player option tells us he doesn’t think he would've gotten that much in free agency despite a solid +2.2 WAR season in 2024. The contract is underwater even in Bellinger’s eyes, hence the light trade package.
One year with a player option means if Bellinger is good, you have him for one year, and if he’s bad, you’re stuck with him for two years. That’s an oversimplification though. The possibility exists that Bellinger has a good 2025 (like he did in 2024), picks up the player option (like he did in 2024), and then has a good 2026 (like he did in 2024). He could have a bad 2025 and a great 2026. The player option isn't automatically a bad thing. There’s a path – a realistic one – to two productive years.
And the “two” is important. I’ve been beating this drum since Soto left. Stick to short-term deals for position players and avoid the 3-5 year contracts for guys already in their 30s, many of whom are already showing signs of decline. Just speaking for myself, other than Soto (and Tucker), there is not a single position player available this winter I want to be locked into for even three years. It’s a bad offseason to need a bat. You will get stuck playing a premium for non-premium players. Bellinger’s 1+1 contract is a good middle ground.
The Yankees have to take big swings
There is a time and a place for the safe, boring, reliable veteran. A Max Kepler type you can pencil in for a 95-ish wRC+ and +1.5 WAR. When you’re a World Series contender with a mostly set lineup, there are worse ways to fill out the bottom of your lineup. The Yankees are not that right now. They need multiple hitters this offseason, including some middle of the order guys. It’s a big ask.
Excellence is not available. It was available earlier this winter, but it is not now. With guaranteed excellence off the table, the Yankees have to roll the dice on possible excellence, something Bellinger provides. Oh sure, he could revert back to his 2021-22 form and be a lemon, but there’s also a chance you get 2023 and a +4 WAR (or better!) player. Bellinger can impact the game in so many ways. More ways than anyone currently sitting in free agency. When you do this much, your ceiling is awfully high.
The range of possible outcomes here is wide. It’s unlikely Bellinger will be completely useless because he’ll at least catch the ball, but the bat could crater like it did from 2021-22. He could also finish in the top 10 of the MVP voting for the fourth time in his career. Bellinger will play most of next season at age 29. We’re not asking him to stave off age-related decline in his early-to-mid 30s. The Yankees need impact. Bellinger is young enough and talented enough that his 2025 could be much better than 2024, which was already pretty good.
* * *
Cashman said Bellinger is eager to play for the Yankees – "I've been hearing it for a long time, including his agent Scott Boras saying, 'Can you get him over here? He's driving me crazy. He wants to be a Yankee,’” Cashman told Hoch earlier this week – which I appreciate even if it doesn’t guarantee success. Marcus Stroman has wanted to be a Yankees forever, right? Wanting to be a Yankee only counts for so much.
Anyway, trying to replace Soto is the wrong way to look at the rest of the offseason. The best the Yankees can do is upgrade as many roster spots as possible. Max Fried and Devin Williams are significant additions to the pitching staff. Bellinger is the first of what figures to be several additions on offense. He can’t be the addition on offense and the Yankees know that, and I don’t think he will be. He’ll be one of 2-3 new bats (hopefully three, but possibly only two).
And the thing is, the Yankees might be the best team in the AL even without Soto. They’re at least in the conversation, right? The Orioles and Red Sox won’t spend, the Astros are trending down, the AL Central is not a threat, and the Blue Jays and Mariners are chronic underachievers. The Rangers might be a top 2-3 team in the league? The AL is down bad right now. The Yankees are very much in it and they still have room to add meaningfully to their roster, something they’ve already shown the willingness to do.
To be sure, the Yankees still have a lot to do, and that means plenty of chances to screw it up. They could give Pete Alonso a seven-year contract and punt second base. If that happens, then we’ll deal with it when it happens, but right now I’m pleased with the offseason post-Soto. Fried and Williams are difference-makers and Bellinger makes the Yankees better offensively, defensively, and on the bases, and it’s a short-term commitment. Exactly the kind of move I was hoping they’d make even though it's not sexy and won't make them World Series favorites on its own.
I expect 2024 Bellinger in 2025. A 110 wRC+ hitter with good defense and baserunning. Ideally that player hits 6-7 in your lineup, though Bellinger is likely to hit 2-3-4 somewhere next year. If the Yankees get 2023 Bellinger (or 2019 Bellinger!), then great. I’ll be thrilled. Bellinger was the right move right at this point in time. I don’t see any legit impact position players in free agency and the position players who are available want to be paid big for their decline years. Bellinger’s well-rounded, his age starts with a 2, and it’s a short-term contract. He’s the best fit for the current roster. That’s why the Yankees got him.
2. Rapid fire thoughts. Earlier this week Brian Cashman confirmed the Yankees will have an in-person meeting with Roki Sasaki “soon,” per Jorge Castillo. I thought the 30 days between the end of the 2024 signing period on Dec. 15th and the start of the 2025 signing period on Jan. 15th was a quiet period with no activity, but apparently it’s just a signing freeze, and you can still talk to players. Huh. Anyway, at least the Yankees got an in-person meeting with Sasaki, unlike Shohei Ohtani back in the day. I don’t expect them to sign him, but maybe? Once your foot is in the door, anything can happen. We’ll see where this goes.
Mailbag Questions of the Week
Peter asks: What would Arod get in today’s market. He was younger, had more power, better defense at a premium position and speed. Soto has a better hit tool, but really Arod was the best free agent ever. Kinda curious if Soto is the top $$ that this market can bear or is there something even higher.
Alex Rodriguez was a year younger than Juan Soto is now when he became a free agent. His first season with the Rangers was his age 25 season, which is insane. Aaron Judge was a rookie in his age 25 season. A-Rod was in the first year of his free agent contract at age 25. Crazy. A-Rod’s $252M deal with Texas was exactly double the largest contract in the four major North American sports leagues at the time (Kevin Garnett’s $126M deal with the Timberwolves).
If we ignore Shohei Ohtani’s heavily deferred contract, the largest North American sports contract before Soto’s deal was Patrick Mahomes’ $450M contract with the Chiefs. Soto did not double that or even come particularly close to doubling it. Here’s another way to look at it:
2001 MLB average salary: $2.14M
2001 A-Rod average annual salary: $25.2M (11.8x the average salary)
2024 MLB average salary: $4.98M
2025 Soto average annual salary: $51M (10.2x the average salary)
We don’t know what the 2025 average salary will be because it’s not 2025 yet, and a lot of free agents and arbitration-eligible players still have to sign, but we can assume it’ll be in the same neighborhood as the 2024 average salary. The average salary was $4.5M in 2023, then it rose to $4.98M in 2024. Add another half-million and we can estimate a $5.5M average salary in 2025.
Point is, the average annual value of A-Rod’s contract was roughly 12 times larger than the average salary. Soto’s is about 10 times larger, and probably a little less than that assuming the average salary goes up in 2025. Relative to the rest of the league, A-Rod’s deal was richer on an annual basis than Soto’s because he was a year younger and also a better all-around player. Comparable hitter, better defender at a premium position, better baserunner. Makes sense, right? (Scott Boras brokered both the A-Rod and Soto deals.)
Annual salary is one thing. Total value is another. A-Rod got a 10-year contract and at the time that sent shockwaves through the sport. I wouldn’t call 10-year contracts commonplace (there have been 28 10+ year contracts in MLB history), but they are certainly more common now. Contract inflation shows up in annual salary, for sure, but it really shows up in years. A quarter-century ago, a superstar free agent in his mid-20s got 10 years. Now you have to start at 12-13 years just to get your foot in the door.
To answer the question, Soto’s the upper limit of what players can make right now. There is no one like him scheduled to become a free agent anytime soon. Gunnar Henderson, another Boras client, is four years away from free agency and the first year of his free agent contract will be his age 28 season. Also, unless he signs an extension soon, Henderson’s big contract will be signed during the next CBA, and who knows what that will look like? Between CBA uncertainty and age, I don’t think Henderson gets Soto money.
Hypothetically, the upper limit of what a player can get is A-Rod annual value (12 times the average salary) and Soto years (15, though the Yankees reportedly offered 16). Figure the average salary will climb to $6M in the next 5-10 years. Based on that, the A-Rod plus Soto hypothetical equals 15 years at $72M per year, or $1.08 billion total. A billion dollar player is coming. He might not have been born yet, but he’s coming.
Guy asks: I wanted to ask this before a trade happens since I believe the stare down with the Cubs could be in its last stage. If they can’t agree could you see them signing a pitcher like Buehler and then using Gil or Schmidt or both to look to the Cardinals for Donovan and Nootbaar? The D’Backs for Jake McCarthy +? The Rangers For Nate Lowe, Josh H. Smith and Leody Tavares?
Guy sent this question in before the Cody Bellinger trade, but even with that, the Yankees should still trade for another bat. I don’t think it falls under “should” either. I think this is in the “need to” category. Maybe the Yankees will sign a free agent rather than make a trade, but the point is they need another bat even with Bellinger. First base, second or third base, the outfield, whatever. Get more offense.
As I wrote in the Scouting the Market post, I really don’t think Brendan Donovan or Lars Nootbaar are available. The Cardinals love those guys and are more likely to extend them than trade them, even if Luis Gil or Clarke Schmidt would be fair-ish value and give St. Louis the pitching they lack. Players unexpectedly hit the trade market all the time (see: Tucker, Kyle), but Donovan or Nootbaar would really surprise me.
McCarthy is more attainable. The Diamondbacks are deep in the outfield (McCarthy, Jorge Barrosa, Corbin Carroll, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Alek Thomas) and both Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly will be free agents after 2025. Gallen is a Scott Boras client and I’m not sure a long-term deal is happening in Arizona. Kelly could return, though he just turned 36. How many more productive years does he have left? McCarthy for a starter with multiple years of control passes the sniff test, at least. Each team deals from a position of depth to address a need.
Now 27, McCarthy has four years of control remaining and he slashed .285/.349/.400 (110 wRC+) with 25 stolen bases and low strikeout (15.8%) and walk (6.3%) rates in 2024. He’s 2010-13 Brett Gardner minus the walks. Speed, premium defense, lefty contact skills, single-digit homers. Gardner learned to pull the ball and use the short porch in his late 20s. Maybe McCarthy could do the same? The Yankees value left field defense and McCarthy would provide it in spades.
Four years of Gil for four years of McCarthy could work given each team’s needs. McCarthy can’t be the bat the Yankees add, they need a legit middle of the order guy and McCarthy’s more of a 7-8-9 type to me, but there’s room on him for the roster. I would’ve rather traded four years of Gil for one year of Tucker because Tucker’s a star, but four years of McCarthy ain’t a bad fallback plan. The D’Backs have outfielders and need long-term pitching. The Yankees have pitching and need long-term outfielders. It fits.
Nate Lowe is quite good and would fit very well at first base, but is he available? There is a lot of speculation he is, mostly because the Rangers likely need to shed money to add pitching and can easily slot Jake Burger in at first base, but it is only speculation at this point. The 29-year-old hit .265/.361/.401 (121 wRC+) with 16 homers in 2024 and is a really good defender. High ground ball rates, average pull rates, and average-ish exit velocity limits his power output, but Lowe would fit well, for sure.
Whether it’s Lowe or McCarthy or Donovan or Nootbaar or whoever, I am completely open to trading Gil or Schmidt for a bat, and backfilling those innings with a short-term free agent signing like Walker Buehler. I feel that way even after Bellinger. The Yankees need multiple position players this winter, not one, and they have the means to trade a pitcher to get a position player, and then replace that pitcher via free agency.
Several asked: What about Steven Kwan?
I certainly understand the appeal. It’s elite bat-to-ball ability, very good plate discipline and on-base skills, elite defense, and above-average baserunning (despite only a modest number of steals). This past season Kwan began getting the ball airborne more often and hit for more power without sacrificing those contact skills. Granted, he’ll never be a power hitter, but Kwan hit 14 homers in 2024 after hitting six in 2022 and five in 2023. The jump from 5-6 homers to 15 or so is pretty valuable. If the Guardians make Kwan available, the Yankees should pursue him very aggressively. I just don’t expect Cleveland to trade him. They love him, he’s their second best player, he has three years of team control remaining, and he’s said he’s open to an extension. After unloading the near $100M they owed Andrés Giménez, the Guardians have money to give Kwan. I’d love him on the Yankees, I just don’t think he’s realistically available. Then again, I would have said the exact same thing about Kyle Tucker three weeks ago, so who knows? (If the Yankees get Kwan, they will absolutely need a power bat at first base and second or third base. Brandon Lowe for the right to use George M. Steinbrenner Field in 2026. Get it done Cash.)
Adam asks: Luis Arraez. Although I don’t consider him a perfect 1B solution, I have long been intrigued by his elite carrying tool in his contact ability. With the Padres apparently listening on trades for him (as well as Cease), do you think a trade package along the lines of Nestor Cortes Jr., Everson Pereira and Yoendrys Gomez would be enough to get trade talks started? Do you think the Yankees should even pursue him? It felt like the lineup was already short on power even before Soto’s departure and 1B should be the easiest position to help fill that void. I guess you can talk yourself into holding your nose and living with his below-average 2B defense, especially if leveraging usage shifts/late-inning defensive replacements, but I generally prefer stronger defense in an up-the-middle position. Maybe there’s some platoon opportunities here (e.g., Arraez at 2B/Rice at 1B versus RHP and Peraza at 2B/Arraez at 1B versus LHP)? Thoughts?
Adam sent this question in before the Yankees traded Cortes for Devin Williams. I feel like the pendulum on Arraez has swung from overrated to underrated. He’s a limited player – it’s singles and doubles with few homers, few walks, and nothing on the field or in the bases – but his bat-to-ball skills and pure hitting ability are special. Would I want to lock Arraez up to a long-term deal? No, I would not. Would I take him as a one-year rental, as he will be in 2025? I’m open to that. The problem for me is the Yankees need more power, and adding a singles hitter to a team that runs the bases poorly and has limited speed isn’t a good fit. I mean, we just sat through a season in which the first basemen hit only singles, played poor defense, and were bad on the bases, right? Arraez is much better than the 2024 versions of DJ LeMahieu and Anthony Rizzo, but I think the Yankees need more power. Unless the Yankees add power bats at second or third base and in the outfield, I don’t like the fit of a powerless, defenseless first baseman. Arraez is a fun player. Flawed, but still productive because he’s excellent at doing the one thing that is a little harder to do with each passing year: get base hits.
Mike asks: What about Carlos Santana as a stop gap 1b?
Santana, 39 in April, became the oldest position player to win his first career Gold Glove this past season, and he hit .238/.328/.420 (114 wRC+) with 23 homers with the Twins. He’s still humming along with strong strikeout (16.7%), walk (10.9%), and swinging strike (9.2%) rates too. Santana is a switch-hitter who is way better against righties. Like way, way better:
2024 vs. RHP: .219/.318/.358 (96 wRC+)
2022-24 vs. RHP: .212/.305/.384 (94 wRC+)
2024 vs. LHP: .286/.356/.578 (161 wRC+)
2022-24 vs. LHP: .273/.365/.484 (128 wRC+)
Cody Bellinger’s versatility opens the door for unconventional platoons. The Yankees could platoon Santana with Jasson Domínguez by playing Bellinger at first and Domínguez in center against righties, and Santana at first with Bellinger in center against lefties. Given his age, Santana could fall off a cliff at any moment, and what amounts to a light side of the platoon first baseman is a tough sell. Not the best use of a roster spot, you know? As a fallback plan, Santana wouldn’t be terrible. I just hope the Yankees are able to come up with a better first baseman between now and Spring Training. Expecting Carlos Santana to contribute in a meaningful way in the year 2025 is dicey.
Anonymous asks: Paul Goldschmidt, not to start but as a right handed caddy to smooth the transition for Ben Rice? 2nd half numbers were good, one year commitment. Rice's under the hood numbers suggest bad luck, and minor league advanced stats suggest the bat is real.
If the Yankees don’t want to go with Rice, they could run a Goldschmidt/Jasson Domínguez platoon like I outlined with Carlos Santana in the last question. There is a lot trending in the wrong direction with Goldschmidt though. He just turned 37 and it’s a multi-year trend of more chases, more swings and misses, more ground balls, etc. Goldschmidt had a dreadful first half (.230/291/.373 and 87 wRC+) and a good second half (.271/.318/.480 and 120 wRC+) this past season, so maybe the first half was a blip and he has another good year or two in him, but there are a lot of red flags here. Goldschmidt still hits lefties well (.295/.366/.473 and 134 wRC+), so he's in that same light side of the platoon category as Santana, whose decline has been much smoother. I think I’d lean Santana over Goldschmidt if the Yankees go with the old dude on a one-year deal stopgap plan? They're pretty interchangeable to me. (Goldschmidt inexplicably hitting .310/.400/.520 with the Yankees feels like a thing that could happen.)
Mark asks: Given the A’s need for payroll, what date do we expect Marcus Stroman to the A’s to be announced? and what does the package look like?
According to Evan Drellich (subs. req’d), the Athletics needed to add another $25M or so to their payroll after signing Luis Severino to avoid the MLBPA filing a grievance over their revenue sharing spending. I didn’t know there’s a rule about this, but apparently your payroll must be at least 150% of what you receive in revenue sharing, and the A’s were well south of that. They’ve since traded for Jeffrey Springs and his $10.5M salary, so they still need to take on another $15M or so. The A’s could simply overpay free agents and raise payroll that way (and they will have to overpay free agents to play in a Triple-A park), but if the Yankees will give you a prospect to take on Stroman, why not explore that? Stroman doesn’t have any no-trade protection and the Yankees could eat $3M to turn him into a $15M player in 2025, kick in a prospect(s), and get a deal done. Even with Springs and Severino, the Athletics need another starter. The A’s get that starter, get a prospect(s), and meet their payroll number while the Yankees shed an unwanted contract. Seems like a win/win to me. I’m not sure the Yankees are desperate to unload Stroman though. He’s No. 6 on the depth chart right now and having six starters doesn’t mean you have a surplus. It means you have enough starters to get through May. With the price of pitching these days, keeping Stroman as the No. 6 who gives you no more than 139.2 regular season innings (to avoid the 2026 player option kicking in at 140 innings) and then goes on the shelf in October isn’t a terrible idea. I’d rather the Yankees trade him and reallocate the money, but I can understand keeping him.
A different Mike asks: In your write up on the Fried contract you were comparing it to the Snell contract with an extra year added on at the same money. With the only major difference being that extra year and the luxury tax gymnastics which of the contracts would you prefer and why?
This is easy for me to say because I don't cut the checks, but I’d rather just pay a higher salary and keep the deal short. DJ LeMahieu’s contract was essentially four years and $90M, which was the going rate for an infielder in his early 30s who’d received MVP votes (i.e. Josh Donaldson’s four-year, $92M contract with the Twins), with two extra years tacked on for luxury tax purposes. A four-year deal would have ended in 2024. Instead, LeMahieu’s still on the books tying up 2025-26 luxury tax payroll, and also eating up a roster spot (for now). Adding those two extra years lowered LeMahieu’s luxury tax number from $22.5M to $15M and what does $7.5M buy you these days? Not a whole lot. The difference between Blake Snell’s contract and Max Fried’s contract is $9.15M a year. The extra years allowed the Yankees to afford Devin Williams, I suppose, but it’s not like Williams was beyond their means anyway. I’d rather keep the contracts short and pay more upfront. We’re in the ugly extra years of LeMahieu’s contract (and Aaron Hicks’ contract!) now and I’m not sure what reducing the luxury tax hit by adding extra years allowed the Yankees to do that they wouldn’t have been able to do otherwise.
(If the Yankees are that desperate to lower luxury tax hits, they should start giving out deferrals, assuming players agree to them. Deferred salary must be put in escrow within two years of when it is earned – starting next year, the Dodgers have to put $68M aside for Shohei Ohtani each year for the next 10 years – a rule that ensures the money is there when the bill comes due. Teams can collect interest on that money though. So, in addition to lowering the luxury tax hit, deferrals make the team money through interest.)
CJ asks: The Yankees are playing the Mets this year in two series, but they each consist of 3 games. This past year, the first under the new scheduling format, the "geographic rivalry" series for each team was two series consisting of 2 games each. Have you seen any explanation for this change?
MLB has something called Rivalry Weekend lined up for May 16-18 next year. That weekend will showcase “prime” interleague rivalries (Yankees/Mets, Dodgers/Angels, Athletics/Giants, etc.) and they’ll play three games. Rivalry Weekend is at Yankee Stadium, then the Yankees and Mets will play three games at Citi Field in July to even out the season series. To make the math work for Rivalry Weekend, those teams will play two fewer games against non-divisional teams in their league. The Yankees have seven games with the Angels and White Sox, and six games against the other eight non-AL East AL teams. Hey, seven games against the White Sox and six against almost everyone else. Nice draw.
(If you’re going to do Rivalry Weekend, why wouldn’t you schedule actual rivalries? Yankees/Red Sox, Dodgers/Giants, Cubs/Cardinals, etc. Interleague rivalries aren’t really a thing in the way MLB thinks.)
Chris asks: Following the Tucker and Soto moves from AL->NL, what do you make of the win-ability of the AL? And how should the softness of the American League alter the way the Yankees attack the rest of the offseason?
The AL to NL talent drain has been going on a while now. Mookie Betts, Francisco Lindor, Manny Machado, Shohei Ohtani, Matt Olson, Blake Snell, etc. The best player to jump from the NL to the AL on a permanent basis (i.e. not one year of Juan Soto) within the last five years is Corey Seager by a mile (depending where Corbin Burnes signs). The next best is probably Luis Castillo? Castillo unless Jacob deGrom manages to stay healthy the next few years. Then it’s guys like Zach Eflin, Pablo López, Seth Lugo, Tyler O’Neill, and Daulton Varsho. Hopefully Cody Bellinger, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Max Fried, and Devin Williams join Seager in this discussion, though three of them have yet to play a game as an ALer. Even with nothing more than patchwork moves the rest of the offseason, you could make a pretty strong argument the Yankees are the best team in the AL. The Astros are on the way down, the Orioles apparently will not raise payroll to support their young talent, John Henry has the Red Sox on a mid-market budget, the AL Central poses minimal threat, so on and so forth. These things are cyclical. In a few years the AL will tower over the NL, but right now, the NL is the more dominant league. That should – should – push the Yankees to be a little more aggressive because the path through the AL may not be this easy again anytime soon, though we’ve seen the Yankees pass up chances to go all-in in the recent past, right? They traded for one guaranteed year of Soto and then hold on now, we can’t possibly trade Spencer Jones for Burnes. The Yankees have been in “build a team good enough to get to the postseason and hopefully things go our way once we get there” mode for a few years now. I don’t think the current state of the AL will change that. It just makes it more likely to work.
Jason asks: I'm just wondering whether there is any chance that the Angels might look to move Trout in a salary dump at some point, and whether it would make sense for the Yankees to be in on him if they did. He's 33 years old, and missed so much time in recent years, but still put up good rate stats when he's played. I assume they need him to sell tickets, and even if they ate some money, he'd still be too expensive for too many years...
Every offseason Mike Trout and the Angels are asked about a trade and every year he says he’s not going anywhere (he has a full no-trade clause). He has six years and $212.7M remaining on his contract and, in the last four years, he’s played 36, 119, 82, and 29 games. Trout is 33 now and he’s still very good when he plays. He just doesn’t play that often. Every year it’s a new injury (it was two meniscus tears in 2024). Trading for Trout now feels like a George Steinbrenner move. Great player in his decline phase who has way more name value and on-field value. There is always a price where it makes sense, and in this case that price involves the Angels eating a ton of money, but between his age and the injuries, Trout’s a pass for me. It’s too bad the second half of his career is playing out this way. He’s one of the greatest players I’ve ever seen. Trout has my Hall of Fame vote even if he never plays another game.
A different Adam asks: What's going to take for the Yanks to get rid of (or relax) the facial hair policy? Have the Yankees ever lost a free agent due to the policy that we know of?
The only player I can remember refusing to sign with the Yankees over the hair policy is former Giants closer Brian Wilson and his big bushy beard. "I can rule out Brian Wilson. That was volunteered to me during our conversations, that the beard stays on. We could use bullpen help, but you can cross him off the list. I was told, 'Don't even bother,’” Brian Cashman told Bryan Hoch when Wilson was a free agent in Nov. 2013. What if Juan Soto said he would re-sign with the Yankees, but only if he could grow a beard? Would Hal Steinbrenner say no? What if Gerrit Cole and Aaron Judge show up to Spring Training with beards? It’s not tradition if it’s forced on you. I say relax the hair policy and allow neatly groomed beards. They won’t tarnish the pinstripes any more than the Starr Insurance patch.
David asks: The mailbag question about greatest 1-year rentals got me thinking. We call a player a rental when they get traded with a year or less remaining on their contract - after which they of course become free agents (unless extended). But when I rent an apartment, it remains owned by the landlord before, during and after I rent it. A true “rental” would be a player who got loaned from one team to another temporarily in exchange for something of value (cash, trade). Is there anything in the rules or CBA that would prevent a terrible team from “renting out” a player in the middle of his contract/control years at the trade deadline, and the player returns to his home team at the end of the season? Assuming there is, do you think it would be good or bad for baseball overall to allow true “rentals,” maybe with certain limitations?
Loaning out a player was an idea bandied about when Mike Trout was in his prime. The Angels have been to the postseason once in the Trout era and they were often out of the race at the deadline, so why not let a team rent Trout for the postseason and then take him back next year? Trade him for prospects and a player to be named, then Trout goes back to the Angels as the player to be named after the season (and the Angels keep the prospects as the cost of doing business). There is no rule against this. Players have been traded for themselves before. It happened as recently as 2005 with John McDonald. The risk is your player gets hurt on the other team’s watch. Could you imagine if the Angels loaned peak Trout to the Yankees and he blew out his knee running through first base? I am intrigued by the idea, though I think a loan out system would be ripe for abuse and unintended consequences, and risk turning postseason races and even the postseason itself into a farce. I'm glad these kinda trades do not happen even though they are technically within the rules.
(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)
Comments
chuangeUp
Fried is indeed similar to Cole in that neither is as good as Snell.
KD Tolliver
Consistently the worst takes in these comments.
ramez hanna
Snell walk a whole village and doesn't go deep in games ,as fried is a complete pitcher on par with cole
MikeD
I'm not sure this talent drain from the AL to the NL is going to change all that quickly. In my youth, the NL was the stronger league as a result of integration. Jackie Robinson joined MLB in 1947, but many AL teams were slow to adapt through the 50s, so a very high percentage of black players went to the NL, which tipped the balance toward the NL in the '60s and '70s. Things balanced out in the '80s, but then the rise the Yankee dynasty in the '90s, driven by an intelligent organization that would also spend, meant the rivals had to up their game. The Red Sox mimic'd the Yankees, while the smaller markets had to be smarter. Money Ball and the A's, the Rays Way, etc. Add in the DH, which allowed the AL to build deeper lineups, and there was a significant imbalance between the leagues that lasted 30 years. Mark Walter and Guggenheim Partners buying the Dodgers began the shift back. Add in Mr. Hedge Fund in the Queens, and suddenly the Yankees were no longer the biggest spenders. Other teams in the NL are now trying to keep up through more aggressive trades. I don't see anything that will ignite the AL to be the biggest spenders in the near term. BTW This is exactly why the Yankees should be agressive right now. As Mike noted, the path back to the World Series is as "easy" as it's been in quite some time.
MikeD
George implemented that when he took over the team in the 1970s, and as I'm of age to remember the '70s quite well, it was a hairy time. Long hair, mustaches, beards. There was more of a rebellion against George's hair policy then, but I'm not really sure it matters. The caveman look from the '70s was replaced by the clean-cut look in the '80s. It's going to happen again. Hairstyles change. I'm with Mike in that I'd be fine with moving to well-kept beards. Baby steps, yet I also don't particularly care, then or now.
Dan G
Don’t get me started on the hair policy… it’s not tradition. George created it when he bought the team. And it’s a really a “styles considered acceptable in 1980” policy. Time to update.
chuangeUp
I think the question was asking Snell vs Fried at their contracts, not whether you want to pay Fried an extra year. The correct answer is Snell hands down. Better pitcher on a cheaper and shorter contract.
chuangeUp
In 2021 they were trying to reset tax penalties and every dime mattered (player options with Gardner and O'Day to lower AAV, salary dumped Justin Wilson, made Chicago eat Rizzo's salary), so that extra 7.5M might have bought them a playoffs berth given how they squeaked in. Not that I wanted to re-sign DJ.
Zack
Also, to the idea of a rental: “why don’t the Angels try building a roster good enough to be worthy of Trout/Ohtani instead?” is the counter argument. You got the superstar! That’s the hard part! Build around them!
Zack
The beard policy is so, so stupid. Why? What is the benefit? Who is the hair hurting! The Yankees missed out on a chance at an elite reliever because of it. Isn’t that stupid?
Mark P in VT
What do the Yanks do now that Walker is off to the Astros?
Pete Vanzino
Arenado has been cooked for 2 years, but I would be all for signing Walker if he would take 3 years
Cptncha
Most of those guys you listed are HOF level players. I wouldn't trust the available FA the same way. I agree if you can get Bregman or Alonso on a short deal it may be worth doing it.
pkmuldy
Mike's fear of mid-thirties dudes is way overblown. The list of guys who have had monster years at that age is a mile long. 34-year-old Paul Goldschmidt had a 7 WAR MVP season 2 years ago. 35-year-old Freddie Freeman kicked our asses from one coast to the other 2 months ago. Our '09 trophy team had no fewer than 6 different key contributors (Jeter, Posada, Matsui, Damon, Pettitte, and the Great Rivera) 35 or over. No one is saying we should give corny Pete Alonso 7 years. But if Arenado and/or Walker can be brought in on 3-year deals for little more than money, I'm all for that. Especaily if the alternative is swapping 4 years of our cost-controlled, homegrown ace for a slap hitting Jake McCarthy, whatever his age.
DZB
A few thoughts after another great post by Mike (including one of my own mailbag questions!). I personally like the Bellinger deal given the roster flexibility and skillset he brings. He'll easily be a 2 WAR addition, and I think he's quite likely to be more like a 3 WAR addition (in this lineup and ballpark). I was dead against the idea of Arraez at 1B, but I also don't love the other options (especially expensive multiyear deals for aging players). Buster Olney was making a case for Arraez and convinced me that he'd at least be a decent option if they don't find someone better (though I wouldn't offer a lot in a trade for him). Personally, I hope they go the route of trading some of their valuable chips (Gil, Jones, Warren etc) for an OF or 1B with more years of control and a higher upside than the FAs available. Fill either hole (1B or OF) and you fill two holes given Bellinger's flexibility. 1B is the real need in that equation - DJ is done and I don't see how he can hold onto his roster spot, and Rice doesn't feel like he'll be a solid MLB player, so they really need to fill that hole.
