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December 31st, 2024: Torres, Burnes, Sasaki, Williams, Chafin, Payroll, Infield Trade Targets
🕑 Added 2024-12-31 11:00:14 +0000 UTCWelcome to the final day of 2024. A good year, it was. The Yankees went to the World Series, and even though they didn’t win the damn thing, it was a pretty fun season. Fun year, but I’m ready to turn the page and move onto 2025. I hope you had a good holiday last week and I hope you have a great 2025. Here now is today’s post as I wonder how many home runs Aaron Judge will hit once he gets his dad strength.
1. Latest hot stove news and rumors. I know I keep saying I will cover the minor league contract guys soon and I will, but it won’t be today. I’m thinking next week (I might just do an all minor league post to catch up on a few things). Some of those non-roster signings are interesting. For now, here are the latest Yankees-related and Yankees-adjacent hot stove happenings.
Gleyber signs with Tigers
The Gleyber Torres era is officially over. He signed a one-year, $15M contract with the Tigers over the weekend. I know it’s not as simple as “match/beat the offer and get the player” but good grief, the Yankees couldn’t do something along those lines? We know Gleyber wanted to stay with the Yankees. He never made that a secret. What a great value signing for a Tigers team that needed a righty bat and someone with a semblance of plate discipline (team .300 OBP in 2024!).
I don’t know what the Yankees are planning to do at second/third base, but they need a good player there. An actual good player too, not a “well maybe this aging veteran won’t continue his decline” player. I know the Yankees are on a run prevention kick and I get it, but they have only two ground ball pitchers on staff (Max Fried and Marcus Stroman). Offense should be the priority at second/third, not a glove-first player. Good luck in Detroit, Gleyber. Barring a summer trade elsewhere, he won’t make his return visit to Yankee Stadium until Sept. 9-11.
Burnes to the D’Backs
I’m very surprised Corbin Burnes got less total money than Max Fried. I know it’s only $8M less, and I know Burnes got two fewer years, but I’m still surprised. Burnes agreed to a six-year, $210M contract with the Diamondbacks over the weekend. There’s an opt out after 2026. It’s the largest contract in franchise history, and it pushes old pal Jordan Montgomery down to No. 7 on the rotation depth chart.
1. RHP Corbin Burnes
2. RHP Zac Gallen
3. RHP Merrill Kelly
4. LHP Eduardo Rodriguez
5. RHP Brandon Pfaadt
6. RHP Ryne Nelson
7. LHP Jordan Montgomery
I would love to pry Pfaadt loose, there’s a lot of untapped potential there, though I assume Arizona will keep him because he’s young and cheap and controllable, and Gallen and Kelly will be free agents after 2025. Montgomery has a $22.5M price tag next year and owner Ken Kendrick recently called him the “biggest mistake this season from a talent standpoint.” Ouch. Yeah, Montgomery’s a goner (Orioles maybe?).
Nick Piecoro says Burnes approached the D’Backs, not the other way around, and Bob Nightengale says the Blue Jays and Giants both offered more money. He wasn’t available to the Yankees under those contract terms. No sense in sweating it. Burnes lives in Scottsdale and he and his wife have infant twin daughters. He took less to stay home. (Imagine taking less and still getting $210M? What a life.)
Burnes going to Arizona is relevant to the Yankees because he left the Orioles, one of their primary competitors in the AL East. Remember, Burnes was not traded to Baltimore until Feb. 1st last offseason, so there’s plenty of time for the O’s to bring in a high-end starter (Luis Castillo?), but they are a worse team right now than they were at the end of the season. Surely they can do better than this, right?
The AL is turning into one big AL Central. The Yankees lost Juan Soto, then aggressively made moves to get better. The Red Sox are better. The Tigers and maybe the Rangers are better. Every other AL contender either got worse or hasn’t done anything. A 90-win team could miss the postseason in the NL next year. In the AL, you might be able to sneak in with 83-84 wins. The talent gap between the two leagues is huge at the moment.
And that’s great for the Yankees. The path through the AL is the easiest it’s been in years, which doesn’t mean it will be easy, just easier. FanGraphs projections have the Soto-less Yankees as the best team in the AL by several wins and that’s without a second or third baseman. Other than Soto, the offseason has played out well for the Yankees league-wide. Now get an infielder and seize this opportunity.
Yankees met with Sasaki
The Yankees had their in-person meeting with Roki Sasaki on Thursday, Dec. 19th, per Jon Heyman. We don’t have any details on the meeting, though Heyman says the Yankees “previously had prepped a virtual presentation that helped them secure the in-person meeting.” So they really had two meetings, and the first (virtual) went well enough to get the second (in-person). Good news? I guess?
MLBTR’s archive says the Cubs, Dodgers, Mets, Rangers, and possibly Giants have also met with Sasaki, and I assume the Mariners and Padres did as well. Sasaki’s agent, Joel Wolfe, said they’ll consider each team’s history with Japanese players and how they helped them acclimate to a new culture in addition to things like pitcher development, etc. I would think that’s good news for the Yankees, but who really knows.
“Given that the gap in bonus pool amounts is so negligible, my advice to him is don’t make decisions based on that,” Wolfe said at the Winter Meetings. “The long-term arc of your career is where you’re going to earn your money, so it’s probably not advisable to make a short-term decision in that regard. Take all the factors into consideration.”
The 2025 international signing period opens on Jan. 15th, two weeks from tomorrow, and Sasaki has until Jan. 23rd to sign. I have no idea what’s next, but Sasaki met with teams at Wolfe’s office in California, and there is plenty of time to visit cities between now and the open of the signing period. I know I would want to visit cities before signing. If visits are happening, we should know fairly soon.
Williams open to extension
During his introductory Zoom call two weeks ago, Devin Williams said he is open to signing an extension with the Yankees, though it sounded more like a “if they’re willing to give me a big bag of cash, I’ll listen” thing than a “I want to be a Yankee forever” thing. Williams will become a free agent after 2025.
“I think if it’s right for both sides, that’s definitely always an option,” Williams told Alex Smith. “Nothing has been discussed up until now, so I can’t really comment too much on that.”
Brian Cashman told Bryan Hoch there have been “no conversations, internally or externally” about a Williams extension yet. With rentals, my general belief is that unless the player is willing to take a sweetheart deal, the Yankees should just play the season out and make sure he’s a good fit before giving out big money. I expect Williams to be great in 2025, but you never know, you know?
Williams turned 30 in September and will be a year older than Josh Hader was when he became a free agent, and two years older than Edwin Díaz when he became a free agent. Based on age, Williams should get less than those two, though market forces could drive the price up. Here are the richest reliever contracts in baseball history:
1. Edwin Díaz, Mets: 5 years, $102M ($20.4M per year)
2. Josh Hader, Astros: 5 years, $95M ($19M per year)
3. Aroldis Chapman, Yankees: 5 years, $86M ($17.2M per year)
4. Raisel Iglesias, Angels: 4 years, $58M ($14.5M per year)
5. Liam Hendriks, White Sox: 3 years, $54M ($18M per year)
Top bullpeners are getting $18M+ a year nowadays and I dunno, I have a hard time seeing the Yankees sinking, say, four years and $72M into Williams. They have paid top dollar for relievers in the past, and it’s possible Williams will be so good that they simply can’t let him go, but he won’t be cheap. He’s one of the best relievers in the world and will expect to be paid as such, either via extension or free agency.
Yankees have interest in Chafin
The Yankees, who do not have a lefty reliever on their 40-man roster, have interest in Andrew Chafin, per Heyman. Thanks to their changeups, Williams and Luke Weaver are very effective against lefty hitters (Fernando Cruz is not despite his splitter), but you do still need that look from the left side. Some hitters just struggle with it. Weaver and Williams can’t be the only lefty matchup options.
Now 34, Chafin had a 3.51 ERA (3.54 FIP) with 28.5 K% for the Tigers and Rangers this past season. Too many walks (12.6 BB%), though that is somewhat skewed by a) an ugly four-batter, four-walk appearance on Aug. 12th, and b) four intentional walks, one more than he issued from 2018-23 combined. Chafin’s walk rate was a manageable 9.7 BB% outside that, and he’s a premier bat-misser and hard contact suppressor:
Chafin has one of the better lefty sliders in the game (it’s a traditional slider, not a sweeper) and he’s upped his slider usage from 26.4% in 2021 to 31.9% in 2022 to 35.1% in 2023 to 45.8% in 2024. The Yankees had Jake Cousins (slider) and Tommy Kahnle (changeup) throw their go-to “secondary” pitches more than 65% of the time in 2024. Wouldn’t surprise me if they have something similar in mind for Chafin.
Rumors about interest in a reunion with Tim Hill have persisted all offseason, and why not both? Hill and Chafin? One strikeout lefty, one ground ball lefty. Neither will be expensive given their age. Chafin worked on a one-year, $4.75M contract in 2024 and a one-year, $6.25M contract in 2023. Chafin and Hill combined might cost $8M in 2025, possibly less, and it gives you two lefties with very different looks and styles.
Yankees offered Stroman for Arenado
According to multiple MLB.com writers, the Yankees approached the Cardinals about a Nolan Arenado trade earlier this offseason, but St. Louis had no interest in taking Marcus Stroman, so those talks went nowhere. The Cardinals agreed to pay $5M per year to send Arenado to the Astros before he blocked the trade with his no-trade clause, per Katie Woo (subs. req’d). Paying $15M across three years is much different than taking on Stroman’s $18M in 2025.
For what it’s worth, Jack Curry said the Yankees are not interested in Arenado on Yankees Hot Stove last week – “The Yankees are not in on Arenado,” were his exact words – and if Jack says it that matter-of-factly, I believe him. Also, this doesn’t mean the MLB.com report is wrong. It could be that the Yankees made the Stroman for Arenado offer early in the offseason, and when the Cardinals said no, the Yankees pivoted and no longer have interest in Arenado.
Here’s where I remind you things can change with one phone call. I’ll feel better about the Yankees avoiding Arenado, who is clearly declining, when they bring in a different infielder or he gets traded elsewhere. I also wonder how eager the Yankees are to move Stroman after trading Nestor Cortes (and Cody Poteet). He’s overpaid, but Stroman is necessary rotation depth now. Shedding his salary and signing a cheaper depth starter is easier said than done.
2. Contract notes. Got a few quick contract housekeeping notes to pass along, so here are those, plus a payroll update as the calendar readies to flip over to 2025.
Loáisiga will earn $5M in 2024
We finally have details on Jonathan Loáisiga’s new contract. It’s richer than I expected. From Ron Blum:
2025: $4.5M salary plus $500,000 signing bonus
2026: $5M club option (no buyout)
Can earn additional $100,000 each for 50, 55, 60, and 65 innings
You know pitching is expensive when a guy who made three appearances in 2024, and 20 appearances from 2023-24, doubled his salary in 2025. I thought Loáisiga was in line for something like Lou Trivino’s contract ($1.5M plus a $5M club option), but, as I noted at the time, there was a lot of interest in Loáisiga, and I guess $5M is what it took to win the bidding. And, in the grand scheme of things, $5M is nothing.
Matt Blake told Blum they’re targeting late April or May for Loáisiga’s return from this April’s internal brace procedure. “I imagine him being one of the high leverage guys. Obviously we gotta take some time to get him right, make sure we don’t rush him into competition,” Blake said. Getting close to a full season of Terminator Loáisiga after the surgery cures what ails him is the dream. Fingers crossed it happens.
Fried’s contract structure
Max Fried’s contract is pretty straightforward: $218M across eight years with no deferrals, or $27.25M per year for luxury tax purposes. Here, via Joel Sherman, is how that $218M will be paid out:
2025: $12M salary plus $10M signing bonus payment on Jan. 31st
2026: $12M salary plus $10M signing bonus payment on Jan. 31st
2027-32: $29M salary annually
Full no-trade clause
The contract is slightly backloaded – $22M a year in 2025 and 2026 before the bump up to $29M annually from 2027-32 – and I don’t think there’s anything to that. You want $10M upfront next month? The trade-off is pushing some money back a few years to ease the pain on our end. Fried’s salary ticks up after DJ LeMahieu is off the books, and after Cody Bellinger and Marcus Stroman come off the books for sure.
Brubaker takes max pay cut
This slipped under my radar last month because there were a million other things going on, but when he signed his pre-tender contract, JT Brubaker took the maximum pay cut. Players who sign pre-arbitration or arbitration contracts can not have their salary reduced to more than 80% of the previous season. Brubaker made $2.275M in 2024. His 2025 salary – $1.82M – is exactly 80% of his 2024 salary.
Now 31, Brubaker missed all 2023 and 2024 with Tommy John surgery and an oblique injury. He must have been really worried about his job prospects to take the max pay cut. I get it. A guy like him (hasn’t pitched in two years, wasn’t great when healthy, etc.) could get squeezed into a minor league contract real quick. Signing the pre-tender deal guaranteed Brubaker’s 2025 salary* and kept him on the 40-man roster.
* Arb-eligible players who sign before filing salary figures (deadline is Jan 9th) get guaranteed contracts. It used to be those players could get released in Spring Training, and receive only 30 or 45 days termination pay depending on the timing of the release. Now those salaries are locked in.
When healthy in 2022, Brubaker threw 144 innings with a 4.69 ERA (3.92 FIP) and okay peripherals. The Yankees love power sinkers, and Brubaker sat mid-90s with the pitch before he blew out his elbow. He was also touted for his command. You needn’t try hard to see the Yankees getting more out of him than the Pirates did. I don’t expect Luke Weaver 2.0, but maybe?
(Trent Grisham also took a pay cut with his pre-tender deal. He went from $5.5M in 2024 to $5M in 2025, so a pay cut, but not the max.)
2025 payroll situation
The Yankees still have work to do this offseason, specifically they need a second or third baseman and a lefty reliever (and maybe a backup catcher), but the heavy lifting is done. Since we’re talking about contracts, and since we’re about to enter the new year, let’s quickly take stock of the 2025 payroll situation. These are the luxury tax numbers:
Guaranteed contracts (13 players): $238.03M
Arbitration projections (5 players): $21.1M (via MLBTR)
Rest of 26-man roster: $7M (9 pre-arb players to fill out roster)
Rest of 40-man roster: $3M (estimated)
Dead money: $12M (Aaron Hicks, plus $2M paid to Brewers in Devin Williams trade)
Miscellaneous: $19.2M (estimated for pre-arb bonus pool, benefits package, etc.)
Loáisiga is one of those 13 guaranteed contracts and he’ll open the season on the injured list, which is why we need nine pre-arb players to fill out the roster rather than eight. Anyway, that adds up $300.33M. Let’s call it an even $300M to make the math easy. That leaves the Yankees $1M below the $301M fourth luxury tax threshold and $16.2M below their 2024 luxury tax payroll, which Jesse Rogers says was at $316.2M*.
* The Yankees were hit with a $62.5M luxury tax bill on that $316.2M payroll. The Dodgers ($103.0M) and Mets ($97.1M) paid more in tax. A record nine teams paid luxury tax overall in 2024.
Here is that $300M roster. Green means guaranteed contract, yellow means arb-eligible, and everyone else is pre-arb. Asterisk indicates the player is out of options and must pass through waivers to go to Triple-A.
(The official site incorrectly lists Alex Jackson as being on the 40-man roster. Those mistakes happen from time to time. It will be fixed soon enough.)
An infielder to push Peraza to the bench (or, more likely, out of the organization) is the top item on the to-do list. Trading Stroman to clear salary is doable, though the Yankees should – should – have money to spend even if they keep Stroman. There is no good reason payroll should come down in 2025. Consider:
Three World Series home games equals an enormous windfall.
2024 was the first full season with the $25M a year Starr Insurance patch.
The Yankees got their cut of the Strauss postseason helmet ads.
Cole and Judge aren’t getting any younger.
Don’t forget the Rays (their insurance company, really) will pay the Yankees roughly $15M for the right to use George M. Steinbrenner Field in 2025. Tampa will run the day-to-day operations and cover those costs too, so that’s another chunk of change coming in next season. Matching last year’s $316.2M payroll should be the bare minimum. Payroll really should go up in 2025.
With ticket prices being what they are these days, the YES Network goliath humming along, and all those ads plastered on the uniform, there’s a chance the Yankees generated more revenue in 2024 than in any season in their history. They’ve already incurred all the non-monetary luxury tax penalties (2026 draft pick moved back 10 spots, worse compensation for qualified free agents, etc.). Going over the $301M threshold just means more tax. If the Dodgers can pay $103M in tax, so can the Yankees. Now go finish the job.
3. Scouting the Trade Market: Infielders. The Yankees have been busy these last three weeks. Since losing Juan Soto they’ve added a new co-ace (Max Fried), a new closer (Devin Williams), a new outfielder (Cody Bellinger), a new setup guy (Fernando Cruz), possibly a new backup catcher (Alex Jackson), and a new first baseman (Paul Goldschmidt). They also brought back Jonathan Loáisiga.
Their work is not done though. The Yankees still have an opening on the infield, and Jazz Chisholm Jr.’s flexibility allows them to pursue a second or third baseman. They’re not locked into one position. Oswald Peraza is out of options and the top in-house option, though he should be a fallback plan at best. You can’t give Fried that contract and trade for Williams, then mail it in on the infield. I’m going to say it again: Finish the job, Yankees.
Jack Curry shot down the Nolan Arenado rumors last week (again), though I suspect we’re going to hear Arenado linked to the Yankees until they bring in another infielder or he gets traded elsewhere. There are a few brand name infielders sitting in free agency, though it seems unlikely the Yankees will pursue the best of the best. The top unsigned infielders by projected 2025 WAR:
1. Alex Bregman: +4.1 WAR
2. Ha-Seong Kim: +2.8 WAR
3. Jorge Polanco: +1.5 WAR
4. Jose Iglesias: +1.4 WAR
5. Several tied at +1.1 WAR
Bregman wants $200M, plus there’s the whole “the Yankees keep calling out the Astros for their cheating” thing. Kim had labrum surgery in October and is not expected to be ready for Opening Day. Polanco had a horrible 2024 and is coming off knee surgery. None of the other unsigned infielders (Iglesias, Brendan Rodgers, Josh Rojas, Amed Rosario, etc.) move the needle.
So, to the trade market we look. The Yankees have been very active in trades the last few weeks, both in salary dumps (Bellinger) and old school baseball trades (Williams, Jose Trevino for Cruz/Jackson). When you’re the Yankees and money is your most plentiful resource, you’d rather just sign a free agent than trade guys away, but if the help you need isn’t available in free agency, then it’s not there. Besides, there’s no harm in us looking at trade candidates. It’s not like we influence anything.
I think the Yankees could use another left-handed hitter. Bellinger, Chisholm, and Austin Wells are locked into lineup spots, and the path is currently clear for switch-hitting Jasson Domínguez to be an everyday guy. Maybe those four are enough, but the Yankees are scheduled to play 81 games in Yankee Stadium, seven games in Camden Yards (still a great park for lefty homers), and six in George M. Steinbrenner Field (same dimensions as Yankee Stadium). That’s 94 games in lefty friendly parks. Another lefty can’t hurt.
Here, listed alphabetically, are nine infield trade candidates with various levels of availability the Yankees could pursue between now and Opening Day. My editors at CBS would have made me come up with a tenth player so we had a nice round number, but I don’t have to do that. My blog, my rules.
3B Brett Baty, Mets
2024 stats: .229/.306/.327 (83 wRC+), 4 HR, 24.6 K%, 9.4 BB% (171 PA)
Contract status: Pre-arb from 2025-26, arb-eligible from 2027-29
Why would the Mets trade him? There is a path to Baty being their third basemen next year (Pete Alonso leaves and the Mets slide Mark Vientos to first base) though that seems unlikely. Unless the Giants or Mariners (or Padres?) step up with a big offer, things are shaping up for Alonso to fall back into the Mets’ lap. Plus, Baty hasn’t hit in multiple big league opportunities, and he wasn’t drafted by POBO David Stearns, meaning no emotional attachment. Basically, he’s a change of scenery candidate. Seems like things have run their course for Baty in Queens.
Why would the Yankees want him? As recently as 2023, Baty was a top 25-ish prospect in the game, and he did hit .252/.349/.504 (119 wRC+) with 16 homers and strong contact rates/swing decisions in 62 Triple-A games after being demoted this past season. He’s also a good third baseman. Baty has good raw power and he’s Yankee Stadium friendly as a pull heavy lefty, but chronically high ground ball rates have muted his power output and his production in general. It’s hard to be an above average hitter when you put the ball on the ground more than half the time.
Now 25, Baty is something of a project – he needs help adjusting his swing to get the ball airborne – and, potentially, a long-term answer at the hot corner. The Yankees could use one of those. Do they want to roll the dice on a project at third base though? They kinda need guaranteed production. For Baty, the best fit is a rebuilding team that can give him a long leash and let him work through things at the big league level. I’m not sure the 2025 Yankees are positioned to do that. Squint your eyes and you can see this working, though I don’t think Baty is a great fit for the 2025 Yankees, and vice versa.
1B/3B Jeimer Candelario, Reds
2024 stats: .225/.279/.429 (87 wRC+), 20 HR, 24.6 K%, 5.8 BB% (463 PA)
Contract status: $15M in 2025, $12M in 2026, $18M club option for 2027 ($3M buyout)
Why would the Reds trade him? You see that 87 wRC+? And the $30M the Reds owe Candelario the next two years? That’s why they would trade him. Now 31, Candelario was a -0.7 WAR player in 2024, and the Reds have younger players they could slot in as full-timers at first base (Spencer Steer), third base (Noelvi Marte), and DH (Christian Encarnacion Strand). These 3+ year contracts for okay players in their 30s are absolute landmines. The most regrettable contracts in baseball, year in and year out.
Why would the Yankees want him? Candelario has had productive years in the recent past: 119 wRC+ in 2021 and 118 wRC+ in 2023. He’s alternated good and bad years since the shortened pandemic season (wRC+ from 2021-24: 119, 80, 118, 87) and is due for a good year in 2024. That’s sabermetrics, baby. The Candyman is a true switch-hitter with a small platoon split, and he pulls the ball an awful lot as a lefty. His third base defense is not good though. He’s about ready to be full-time at first base.
The Reds would probably give Candelario away, and who doesn’t like free stuff? Is there a Marcus Stroman trade match here? The Yankees could eat money to make the 2025 salaries neutral, and Cincinnati would be relieved of Candelario’s 2026 money. I just don’t think he’s good enough. Poor defense, something that won’t jibe with the team’s post-Soto run prevention kick, and you can’t count on Candelario to hit enough to make up for the glove. A poor defending hot cornersman with a .232/.298/.423 (97 wRC+) line in his last 1,500 plate appearances isn’t the answer.
UTIL Willi Castro, Twins
2024 stats: .247/.331/.385 (108 wRC+), 12 HR, 23.6 K%, 8.0 BB% (635 PA)
Contract status: Arb-eligible in 2025 (projected $6.2M)
Why would the Twins trade him? They’re broke. Or at least they’re acting like they’re broke. The Twins are caught up in the Diamond Sports Group bankruptcy and MLB is taking over their broadcasts in 2025. They lowered payroll from $153.7M in 2023 to $127.3M in 2024, and Aaron Gleeman (subs. req’d) says payroll will say the same in 2025. Cot’s estimates their 2025 payroll at $141.7M and they still need more pitching, particularly a back-end starter and a reliever or two.
Why would the Yankees want him? Castro is a true super utility guy. He has a good bat and this past season he became the first player in baseball history to play 25+ games at five positions (second, third, short, left, right). He rates best at third base, which would work for the Yankees, and he’s a switch-hitter who does hit best work against righties. Castro, 28 in April, has put up an identical 108 wRC+ in his two years with the Twins, though he’s a different hitter from each side of the plate:
Against lefties, Castro hits ground balls all over the field. Against righties, he’s a pull-and-lift guy who would benefit from the short porch. There are roster considerations here – Castro, Domínguez, and Wells could all use a platoon partner, and there are only so many roster spots to go around – but compared to their current second/third baseman (i.e. no one in particular), Castro would be an upgrade, sure.
The Twins likely need to shed money to make more moves and I wonder about Christian Vázquez. They owe him $10M in 2025 and he hasn’t hit as a Twin (.265 OBP and 63 wRC+ in two years), but he still rates well defensively, and they have a ready-made backup catcher in Jair Camargo. Do the Yankees take on a chunk of Vázquez’s money ($5M?) to lower the price for Castro, and plug Vázquez in as the new defense-first backup catcher? Hmmm.
Castro’s an important player for the Twins. Byron Buxton and Royce Lewis (and Carlos Correa the last few years) can’t stay on the field, and he’s their backup plan at every position. They have limited ways to clear money though, and if you take on some of Vázquez’s salary, Minnesota might not be able to resist. Their hands are tied, financially. Trading Castro is one way to untie them.
2B Brandon Lowe, Rays
2024 stats: .244/.311/.472 (123 wRC+), 21 HR, 26.4 K%, 7.8 BB% (425 PA)
Contract status: $10.5M in 2025, $11.5M club option in 2026 ($500,000 buyout)
Why would the Rays trade him? Lowe is Tampa’s highest paid player and the Rays trade their highest paid players every offseason. Last year it was Tyler Glasnow and Manny Margot. The year before it was Ji-Man Choi and Brooks Raley. The year before that it was Austin Meadows and Joey Wendle. The Rays already traded Jeffrey Springs and his $10.5M salary this offseason. Lowe could be next.
Why would the Yankees want him? He’s a lefty who’s averaged 33 homers per 162 games with the exit velocities and pulled fly ball rates to match, making him very Yankee Stadium friendly (remember this?). Lowe also has good defensive chops at second base, plus he played some first base in 2024. An above average bat at a position of need with an affordable contract. That’s why the Yankees would want him.
There are negatives, of course. Due to injuries (mostly back trouble), Lowe has played more than 109 games only once in his career. He will strike out a bunch, he has issues with southpaws, and you can beat him with fastballs upstairs. Lowe is a low OBP slugger and the Yankees are a team with a few too many low OBP hitters. I think he’s the best realistically available option – the Yankees trade with the Red Sox every offseason, I don’t think they’d have an issue trading with Tampa – though he is an imperfect fit.
2B Gavin Lux, Dodgers
2024 stats: .251/.320/.383 (100 wRC+), 22.6 K%, 9.0 BB% (487 PA)
Contract status: Arb-eligible from 2025-26 (projected $2.7M in 2025)
Why would the Dodgers trade him? To replenish their farm system, I suppose. The Dodgers frequently trade role players once they make real money through arbitration to keep the prospect pipeline flowing. Think Yasiel Puig, Ross Stripling, Alex Wood, the failed Joc Pederson trade, etc. Lux was a top prospect not that long ago, though he’s yet to really break through, and Mookie Betts moving back to shortstop means a crowded infield. Also, the Dodgers have a lefty heavy lineup. Trading Lux would alleviate that.
Why would the Yankees want him? Lux turned only 27 last month and this past season’s league average batting line was split into .213/.267/.295 (60 wRC+) in the first half and .304/.390/.508 (152 wRC+) in the second half. He missed 2023 with a torn ACL. Perhaps Lux just needed a few weeks to get back into rhythm at the plate? I can buy it. He did hit .276/.346/.399 (113 wRC+) with a healthy knee in 2022.
Lux is remarkably league average across the board. Contact rates, chase rates, swing decisions, etc. He puts the ball on the ground too much (48.6% in 2024 and 47.9% career) and isn’t a big pulled fly ball guy, and he’s just an okay baserunner. Also, Lux had a bout with a yips in 2024. His throws from shortstop were all over the place in Spring Training, so the Dodgers slid him over to second. (Lux did eventually get his throwing ironed out and had an uneventful season in the field.)
I’m not sure Lux is really available – Mookie’s stint at short didn’t go well this past season and he wound up back in the outfield, which could happen again next year – but I am intrigued. There’s a solid foundation in his contact rates and swing decisions, Lux can put a mistake in the seats, and he’s familiar with the whole big market experience and what that entails. He’s a solid enough player now and there is upside to be even more.
2B Michael Massey, Royals
2024 stats: .259/.294/.449 (102 wRC+), 14 HR, 15.7 K%, 4.2 BB% (356 PA)
Contract status: Pre-arb in 2025, arb-eligible from 2026-28
Why would the Royals trade him? Other than one game at third base two years ago, Massey has played his entire career at second base, as has new addition Jonathan India. Both say they’re willing to play left field (Kansas City badly needs more offense from their outfield) and there is the DH spot, but when you have two guys who play the same position, you might as well listen to offers, right? India’s the new guy. Massey would presumably be the one to go in that case.
Why would the Yankees want him? The man they call Michael Mashey has legit lefty power and one of the highest pull rates in baseball (53.9%!), suggesting he would mix well with the short porch. He’s an aggressive hitter who maybe started to figure an approach out this past season (1.9 BB% in the first half and 6.0 BB% in the second half), and took really good at-bats in the postseason. Massey went 7-for-25 (.304) with a double and a triple in October, and averaged 4.16 pitches per plate appearance.
Add in above average defense and baserunning (despite few stolen bases), and you’ve got a sneaky nice all-around player who belongs in the 8-9 lineup spots because of perpetually low OBPs. Massey doesn’t strike out excessively, it’s a low walks/low strikeouts profile, but he swings so much that he’s just never going to walk consistently. With a stacked offense, you can live with that at the bottom of the order. The defense, baserunning, and pull power would fit the Yankees nicely. The OBP? Not so much.
UTIL Jeff McNeil, Mets
2024 stats: .238/.308/.384 (97 wRC+), 12 HR, 14.4 K%, 7.4 BB% (472 PA)
Contract status: $15.75M in 2025, $15.75M in 2026, $15.75M club option for 2027 ($2M buyout)
Why would the Mets trade him? McNeil is in the middle of a multi-year decline and he’s owed a good chunk of money for his age 33-34 seasons. I know Steve Cohen is cartoonishly rich, but he doesn’t want to pay that (and the associated luxury tax). The Mets could plug the younger and cheaper Luisangel Acuña or Ronny Mauricio in at second base, and create a more athletic team that doesn’t cost as much.
Why would the Yankees want him? After a wretched first half, McNeil simplified his approach after the All-Star break, and, in his words, “I have been trying to hit the ball wherever it's pitched, and hit it hard.” The production ticked up big time in the second half – .289/.376/.547 (156 wRC+) – and if you think that’s the real McNeil, then there's a reason to trade for him. Especially if the prospect cost is low given the money.
The caveats are that big second half came while being platooned with Jose Iglesias, so McNeil was given favorable matchups, plus an errant pitch broke his wrist on Sept. 6th and essentially ended his season. He had only 149 plate appearances in the second half, which isn’t a big sample. The Yankees are already doing the “banking on an aging, declining player who had a big second half” thing with Paul Goldschmidt. Do they want to do it again with McNeil, who’s signed for multiple years?
UTIL Luis Rengifo, Angels
2024 stats: .300/.347/.417 (117 wRC+), 6 HR, 14.5 K%, 5.3 BB% (304 PA)
Contract status: Arb-eligible in 2025 (projected $5.8M)
Why would the Angels trade him? The Angels are the AL Rockies. They do weird things all the time, so, even though they’ve imported Travis d’Arnaud, Yusei Kikuchi, and Jorge Soler in win-now moves the last few weeks, and need a backup plan at third base given Anthony Rendon’s injuries, they might trade Rengifo. That is especially true if they plan on fast-tracking infielder and 2024 first rounder Christian Moore the same way they fast-tracked Zach Neto and Nolan Schanuel, their 2022 and 2023 first rounders.
Why would the Yankees want him? Rengifo was a popular name leading up to the trade deadline and I expressed concern over the nagging wrist injury he was dealing with at the time. Sure enough, he had season-ending surgery a few days after the deadline. Rengifo is expected to be ready for Opening Day, though wrist injuries are known to sap power and production even after the player is cleared to return. They are tricky injuries, especially tendon/structural damage that happens on a swing (like Rengifo) as opposed to, say, a broken bone on a hit by pitch.
When healthy, Rengifo’s a pretty good player who offers a lot of contact, some power, good baserunning, good defense, and versatility. He’s a switch-hitter who’s average against righties and crushes lefties, and he does his best work in the field at third base. You don’t have to try hard to see Rengifo as a fit for the Yankees and their current infield. How do you feel about that wrist injury though? It could mean a chance to buy low. It could also mean you’re buying a lemon. As always, the price will factor into the decision to pursue him, and the Angels are known for unreasonable asking prices.
UTIL Josh Smith, Rangers
2024 stats: .258/.337/.394 (111 wRC+), 13 HR, 20.4 K%, 7.8 BB% (592 PA)
Contract status: Pre-arb in 2025, arb-eligible from 2026-28
Why would the Rangers trade him? No good reason. Well, no, that’s not true. Texas still needs pitching, particularly a back-end starter and high leverage reliever, and trading Smith could perhaps help them get it. He is their super utility guy though, and the Rangers need a good tenth man because Josh Jung gets hurt every year and Corey Seager is becoming a 120 games a year player in his 30s. Smith is of course a former Yankees prospect. They sent him to the Rangers in the Joey Gallo trade.
(Smith missed the Super Two cutoff by three days this offseason. Three days is the difference between four trips through arbitration rather than the usual three, which would have put several more millions in his pocket between an increased 2025 salary and the domino effect on his raises from 2026-28. Rough for Smith, good for the Rangers, who are caught up in the Diamond Sports Group bankruptcy and are still working through their 2025 television situation.)
Why would the Yankees want him? Much like Ezequiel Duran (another part of the Gallo trade) in 2023, Smith had a fantastic start to 2024, then crashed down the stretch. I answered a mailbag question about him on July 19th and noted the gap between his contact quality and production was massive, so massive that a return to Earth was inevitable. Smith had a .293/.393/.469 (145 wRC+) line that day. From that day forward, he hit .215/.265/.300 (59 wRC+) in 253 plate appearances. Yikes!
Now 27, Smith is neither really as good as he was before July 19th nor really as bad as he was after July 19th. His chase and contact rates have gone backwards the last few years and his contact has never been great. Right now, Smith’s value lies in his versatility and average to good defense all over, and the ability to not be a total zero at the plate. A good role player, basically. There is a lot of value in being a league average-ish hitter who can give his team coverage at multiple positions. A better Oswaldo Cabrera, basically.
* * *
To me, Lowe is the best infield trade target, and we can safely assume he’s available because the Rays will trade anyone at any time. He’s a flawed player, no doubt, but you can’t get caught chasing perfection because it doesn’t exist. A lefty with 30-homer power and good enough defensive chops at second base would make the Yankees better. Castro and Lux would help the Yankees too. Rengifo’s wrist scares me. There’s a chance it turns his final year of team control into a complete dud. Baty is interesting as a long-term project and not so much as an immediate solution.
The Yankees went with an aging reclamation project at first base and thus need more sure thing production at second or third, at least in my opinion. They already have one glove over bat middle infielder and I can’t say I’m particularly interested in adding another defense-first guy. The lineup behind Aaron Judge and Juan Soto was unimpressive this past year and the Yankees haven’t done a whole lot to improve it. Second/third base is pretty much their last chance (unless they add an outfielder and don’t go with Jasson Domínguez).
4. Rapid fire thoughts. MLB and the umpires’ union agreed to a new five-year CBA last week and Buster Olney says it includes language allowing the league to implement the automated strike zone. We don’t know when it’s happening yet, but it will happen eventually, and MLB now has the necessary buy-in from the umpires. My guess is we get the challenge system in 2027, the first year of the next CBA … And finally, CC Sabathia told Gary Phillips he “absolutely” plans on wearing a Yankees cap on his Hall of Fame plaque, if he gets in. I figured that would be the case (Sabathia threw more innings, won more games, had more strikeouts, etc. as a Yankee than with Cleveland and Milwaukee combined), though it’s nice to hear him confirm it. As of Monday afternoon, Sabathia is at 91.5% on the public ballots. I put my ballot in the mail last week and my explainer post will go live at CBS on Thursday, Jan. 16th, which means I need to start writing it. I’ll link to it here once it’s up.
(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)
Comments
Dan G
Not to mention $30M a few years ago from BAMTech sale. All this before a single ticket sold.
The Original Drew
Whatever happened internally, it was the deciding factor. Boone never benches anyone and they made an example out of Gleyber.
MikeM
I think the reality is that Gleyber is a horrific fielder and one of the worst baserunners in baseball (3rd percentile on Savant…worse than even Stanton). He is an embodiment of the exact qualities they are trying to move away from, so I can see how the team just needed to rip the bandaid and get a fresh start. I’ll always like him, and appreciate how much he liked being a Yankee…but moving on is best for everyone.
MikeD
It likely is posturing, but they may back themselves into him starting.
Peter S
I imagine Sasaki wants to be developed into a “regular” pitcher for his long term benefit and wouldn’t want a 6 man rotation.
Peter S
Mike, I appreciate your insights into the Yankees revenue with Starr insurance etc. I know all teams play it close to the vest and feign poverty. There’s generally not enough coverage of the ownership’s financials by the media.
MikeD
The Arenado speculation makes sense. They had multiple arms to move, one being Stroman, but in the end it was Nestor and Poteet, so Stroman slots in as the 6th starter/swing man now. He won't be great, but he should be better with a tighter defense. The Yankees had no interest in Gleyber. I suspect they wouldn't have brought him back for $5MM. the bigger question is who are they replacing him with at 2B/3B? Kim?
Peter S
I think the Yankees are just saying that they’re comfortable with DJ at 3rd as posturing for some negotiations they’re doing. Remember when they said they were excited about Caleb Durbin at 2nd? Two weeks later he was traded to the brewers.
The Original Drew
If the Yankees somehow got Sasaki, then Stroman moves even further down the depth chart. Or would the Yankees got with a 6 man rotation like the Dodgers are going to do this year with Ohtani back in the mix?
Mike
Hal has reached his self imposed spending cap. It’s why every year 1-2 positions is not filled adequately.
Spookie
I was really rooting hard for Montgomery to prove some people wrong, including Mike, but it hasn't worked out that way so far. At least he got his ring and some money. Still better off than most.
I'm Not The Droids You're Looking For
It has to be “something” because on its face, given our roster construction and the fact that we could’ve gotten Gleyber for the same or less than 1/$15 million, even with the issues you cite I still think we should’ve signed him.
J9D
Slim pickings for the infield spot and nothing as good as Torres in the trade market imo … sort of a head scratcher as to why they wouldn’t just sign him for a year rather than giving up prospects for less productivity.
kyle
How do you manage to build a 300m roster with one good hitter? If you're gonna keep signing Paul Goldschmidts you have to develop better than Anthony Volpes
Spookie
I think the Yankees were fed up with Torres mental lapses and inconsistent defense. He didn't even run hard out of the box in the world series. There might be some behind the scenes stuff going on as well.
Steven O
Happy New Year Mike!. Thanks for the fantastic work in '24. Along the lines of payroll, i have seen several articles with a don't give up on DJ (they still owe him $30 million) theme. I can see the Yankees starting the year with a DJ/Oswaldo platoon at third.
Bryan Mayer
I would bet any amount today that the payroll doesn’t got over $301m to start, one way or another.
Davidson
What about Bryson Stott? Philly might want to get Sosa some regular ABs
