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January 10th, 2025: Arraez, Polanco, Rodgers, Cabrera, Arbitration, Sasaki, Mailbag
🕑 Added 2025-01-10 11:00:13 +0000 UTCThe Yankees made their Spring Training reporting dates official earlier this week. Pitchers and catchers will report on Tuesday, Feb. 11th, and position players will follow on Sunday, Feb. 16th. The first Grapefruit League game is Friday, Feb. 21st. That means my annual Top 30 Prospects list will run Friday, Feb. 7th, so I better get started. I swear, it feels like they cut six weeks out of the offseason somewhere along the line. Here now is today’s post as I’m thankful Hal Steinbrenner knows better than to give away a bobblehead of himself.
1. Latest hot stove news and rumors. It has been 20 days since the Yankees last made a Major League trade or free agent signing. I’m going through withdrawals. They crammed three signings (Max Fried, Paul Goldschmidt, Jonathan Loáisiga) and four trades (Cody Bellinger, Fernando Cruz, Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz, Devin Williams) into a 12-day span last month. Now nothing for close to three weeks. Well, anyway, here are the latest Yankees-related and Yankees-adjacent tidbits from the hot stove league.
Dodgers sign Kim, trade Lux
That's Hye-Seong Kim, not Ha-Seong Kim. Ha-Seong remains unsigned. The Dodgers signed Hye-Seong to a three-year contract worth $12.5M last week. Soon thereafter GM Brandon Gomes said they intend to keep Gavin Lux – “It’s helpful to have really strong pieces at a lot of different areas. So that’s how we’re viewing it right now,” Gomes said – then, soon after that, they traded Lux to the Reds.
I mentioned Lux as a possible trade target last week, even before the Dodgers signed Kim, so I guess I was barking up the right tree. There is no good Yankees’ equivalent to the trade package the Reds gave up to get Lux. Nothing really fits:
OF Mike Sirota: RHP Thatcher Hurd (2024 third round pick)
Competitive Balance draft pick: ??? (tentatively 37th overall in 2025)
The Dodgers drafted Sirota out of high school a few years ago and were unable to sign him. They’ve wanted him for a few years now. This wasn’t a simple “okay, we’ll take that guy” situation. The Dodgers got their guy. The Yankees don’t have a Competitive Balance pick to trade because only small market teams get those. The 37th-ish overall pick and associated bonus pool money is pretty darn valuable.
Surely there was something the Yankees could have offered the Dodgers to get a Lux trade done, but it kinda seems like the Dodgers zeroed in on their guy (Sirota), and how much do you want to overpay to get Lux? Yeah, he’s better than what the Yankees have at second base now, and there’s a chance things come together for him in his age 27-28 seasons, but still, it’s Gavin Lux. I would only trade so much.
The larger issue is second/third base options are beginning to dwindle. Kim signed, Lux got traded, Gleyber Torres signed, Isaac Paredes got traded and that presumably takes Nico Hoerner off the market, etc. The other Kim is the best free agent second baseman by mile and he’s coming off major shoulder surgery. Do the Yankees really want to take on Nolan Arenado or Alex Bregman? I mean really? Maybe they do.
To me, Brandon Lowe is the best second base target, and that was true even before Lux got traded. The lefty power plays in Yankee Stadium, he can handle himself defensively, and it’s an affordable contract ($10.5M in 2025 plus an $11.5M club option for 2026). The Rays will trade anyone at any time. It’s just a matter of meeting their asking price, whatever it is. Lux was a decent enough target, with an emphasis on was.
The Luis Arraez rumor
Arraez’s name popped up in connection to the Yankees earlier this week. First Jeff Passan (subs. req’d) said the Yankees have “continued to discuss” Arraez with the Padres, implying they’ve been in talks about him for a little while now. Then Jon Heyman reported Arraez is not seen as a fit for the Yankees “at least for now.” Jon Morosi then said a deal is a possibility, but the two sides aren't close. This is me after all that:
I answered a mailbag question about Arraez last month and said I think the pendulum has swung from overrated to underrated. Arraez’s bat-to-ball ability is special. It’s not an elite hit tool, it’s a generational hit tool. Never before in baseball history has it been as hard to get a base hit as it is right now, and Arraez has a career .323 AVG in close to 3,000 plate appearances. That doesn’t happen by accident.
If you’re reading this though, you know getting base hits is basically all Arraez does. He doesn’t walk much, he doesn’t hit for power, he’s a poor defender wherever you put him, and he’s slow and a negative on the bases. Last year’s .314/.346/.392 (109 wRC+) line in 672 plate appearances came with four home runs and +1.0 WAR. Arraez’s usefulness is limited. I do enjoy the juxtaposition of his Statcast sliders though:
I answered the Arraez mailbag question before the Yankees signed Paul Goldschmidt, and with the idea that Arraez would play first base. That’s off the table now. Now the Yankees would have to put at him at second base, where he was a -3 DRS and -7 OAA defender in only 38 games worth of innings in 2024. It would go completely against the run prevention kick the Yankees have been on this offseason.
Arraez agreed to a $14M salary before the arbitration filing deadline Thursday and 2025 is his final year of team control. If you’re willing to pay Arraez $14M and live with below average defense at second base, why wouldn’t you just re-sign Gleyber Torres? Gleyber rates as a better defender than Arraez, we know he didn’t want to leave the Yankees, and you know exactly what you’re getting in the clubhouse and whatnot.
At the same time though, you have to adapt to the market, and that ideal "above average infield defender with a good bat" doesn't appear to be out there. Not unless you pay big for Alex Bregman, take on Nolan Arenado’s deep decline years, or are willing to bet on Ha-Seong Kim’s shoulder post-surgery (and meet Scott Boras’ asking price). You can’t get caught chasing perfection. It’s not out there. So what’s the next best thing?
Arraez turns 28 in April and he played through a torn thumb ligament much of last year (he had surgery in October). The guy won his third straight batting title with a bad thumb. Yankee Stadium is a bad ballpark for every kind of left-handed hit except home runs partly because the short porch allows right fielders to play shallow and take away hits in front of them, though Target Field and Petco Park are bad for lefties too, and Arraez won batting titles there. Robbie Canó had no trouble hitting .300 in Yankee Stadium. Like Canó, Arraez’s hit tool is the kind that transcends park factors. I think he’d be more than fine in the Bronx.
Max Fried and Marcus Stroman are the only pitchers on the staff who had even a 44% ground ball rate last year, and Stroman could get traded before Opening Day. It’s a fly ball pitching staff, which would soften the blow of Arraez’s poor second base defense (his hands are fine, he just lacks range). You can play Oswaldo Cabrera or whoever else at second base during Fried starts, and Arraez behind the fly ball guys.
And let’s not kid ourselves. Giancarlo Stanton is likely to spend time on the injured list, freeing up DH at-bats. Goldschmidt had an 88 wRC+ against righties last year and his contact rates and production vs. fastballs suggest there’s a chance he goes full Donaldson, and becomes unplayable as a hitter. That would free up first base at-bats. Look at second base and the bench. Let’s not pretend there's no way Arraez can help the Yankees.
The Padres have done nothing this offseason. The only player they’ve added to the 40-man roster from outside the organization is Rule 5 Draft pick Juan Nuñez, who’s never pitched above High-A. Arraez and Dylan Cease, who is also a year away from free agency, have been mentioned as trade candidates as San Diego looks to shed payroll so they can afford upgrades to other parts of the roster (left field, catcher, back of the rotation, etc.).
Cot’s estimates San Diego’s 2025 luxury tax payroll at $247.5M. That’s above the $241M threshold and well above last year’s $227.8M luxury tax payroll. Sheel Seidler, widow of late Padres owner Peter Seidler, recently filed a lawsuit against his brothers in an effort to retain control of the club. There is discord at the ownership level and clamps on payroll. Trading Arraez would clear $14M. Are the Padres desperate enough to shed money that they’ll trade him for pennies on the dollar? Might as well call and ask, right?
Arraez is a flawed player. He’s also the best pure AVG hitter in the game, and despite those flaws he was a +4.2 WAR player in 2022 and a +4.9 WAR player in 2023. At age 28 and with a healthy thumb, why couldn’t he return to his 2022-23 levels in 2025? Or even just be a +2 WAR player? It’s one year of the guy. You’re not entering into a long-term situation. A three-time batting champ’s age 28 season with the motivation of a contract year is appealing to me.
The Yankees should have just re-signing Gleyber, but there’s no unringing that bell now. If the price is right, and it might be given everything going on with the Padres and their ownership/finances, Arraez at second base for a year just might be the best move available to the Yankees now. Hold your nose with his second base glove, take the .320 AVG and .350 OBP, and put him at DH or first base if/when the opportunity arises. Let’s not overthink this. Arraez is an imperfect fit, but yes, he would make the Yankees better.
Yankees connected to Polanco, Rodgers
With Spring Training a month away, we’re firmly in “the Yankees are checking back in with everyone to see how much their price has dropped” territory. The Yankee have “had talks” with Brendan Rodgers recently, per Bob Nightengale, and Mark Sanchez says they’ve checked in with Jorge Polanco as well. I assume Paul DeJong, Jose Iglesias, and Whit Merrifield rumors are coming soon. Maybe others too. (I was going to list Amed Rosario here, but he just got $2M from the Nationals.)
I mentioned Rodgers briefly after the Rockies non-tendered him. He’s only 28 and his top end exit velocities are solid, but Rodgers puts the ball on the ground a ton (53.9% last three years), and outside of his outlier 2022 (+22 DRS!), his second base defense has been just okay. While I’m curious to see what Rodgers can do in a competent organization, I would be underwhelmed with him as the answer at second.
As for Polanco, I kinda dug the idea of him at third base last year. Then he hit .213/.296/.355 (92 wRC+) with career worst strikeout (29.2%) and swinging strike (11.8%) rates with the Mariners, and had surgery on his left knee in October. Supposedly Polanco’s rehab is going well and he’ll be ready for Spring Training, but he was a poor second base defender before surgery. Will he lose more mobility after surgery and at age 31?
I wouldn’t get too worked up about the Polanco and Rodgers rumors. We’re gonna hear the Yankees have checked in on every unsigned infielder the next few weeks, and they’ll all be underwhelming because that’s all that’s left on the market. But, just to circle back on Arraez for a second, when the alternatives are guys like Polanco and Rodgers, is one year of the generation’s best AVG guy really such a bad idea?
Miscellany
Teams have checked in on Oswaldo Cabrera, so says Brendan Kuty. I love Waldo’s energy and attitude, but of course he shouldn’t be off-limits. His value stems from his ability to play any position and play it competently or better (he was probably the best first baseman on the roster last October, which says more about the state of first base than it does Cabrera), though the Yankees could easily use Trent Grisham as their backup outfielder and the out of options Oswald Peraza as their backup infielder … According to Chris Cotillo, the Red Sox are Nolan Arenado’s “preferred destination.” Since that’s coming from a Boston reporter, I take it to mean the Red Sox are trying to put pressure on Alex Bregman, not that the Cardinals are trying to get the Yankees back to the table. Bregman and Alex Cora are close from their Astros days and his righty pull approach would fit well in Fenway Park. The Red Sox have talked about moving Rafael Devers to first base. Sign Bregman, put Devers at first, trade Triston Casas to the Mariners for Luis Castillo? That’s like $50M a year in salary added and John Henry won’t sign off on that, thankfully … And finally, Justin Verlander signed with the Giants earlier this week. One year and $15M. Same contract Alex Cobb and Charlie Morton signed. That’s the going rate for a veteran near the end of the line and implies the Yankees will have to eat $3M of Marcus Stroman’s $18M salary to move him. Stroman’s 2026 player option and related innings limit complicate things, but we have a pretty good idea what a player like him is worth on the open market now. Adjust trade expectations accordingly.
2. 2025 arbitration signings. Thursday was the arbitration salary filing deadline and the Yankees got four of their five players signed. The one exception: Mark Leiter Jr. Mark Feinsand says the filing numbers were $2.05M and $2.5M. This does not necessarily mean they’re going to a hearing. They could still agree to a deal before a hearing, which is what happened after Gleyber Torres (2023) and Aaron Judge (2022) filed salary figures. The Yankees haven’t been to a hearing since 2017 and I doubt either side wants one. I bet they work it out at some point.
The Yankees got their other four arb-eligible players signed before Thursday's deadline. Here are those four players and their 2025 salaries, per Bryan Hoch:
Devin Williams: $8.6M (MLBTR projection: $7.7M)
Jazz Chisholm Jr.: $5.85M (MLBTR projection: $6.9M)
Clarke Schmidt: $3.6M (MLBTR projection: $3.5M)
Scott Effross: $800,000 (MLBTR projection: $900,000)
Those four came in at a combined $150,000 under their projections, with William’s above-projection salary essentially negating Chisholm’s discount. Did the Yankees cave and give Williams his number? Did Jazz really take a discount? Or were the projections off? MLBTR’s model generates over 100 projections a year. There’s bound to be a few lemons in there. Well, whatever.
Two weeks ago I estimated the luxury tax payroll at $300.33M using MLBTR’s projections. Updating that, and including Leiter at his $2.5M filing number, and it’s now a $300.58M luxury tax payroll for 2025. The Yankees finished 2024 with a $316.2M luxury tax payroll. If they come in under that, they will be the first pennant-winner to lower payroll since the Rays trimmed $68,830 off payroll from 2020 (before proration) to 2021. Don’t be the Rays, Yankees. Finish the job.
3. The Yankees and Sasaki. The 2025 international signing period opens next Wednesday, Jan. 15th, and Roki Sasaki will have until the following Thursday, Jan. 23rd, to sign. The Yankees met with him in-person last month, though I have no expectation of them signing him. If they do, it would be amazing, and I would love it. I don’t expect it though, and I never did. Sasaki seems Dodgers-bound. Or maybe the Padres.
There is a path to the Yankees benefiting from Sasaki’s decision even if he goes elsewhere, however. Two paths, really. Sasaki’s agent, Joel Wolfe, recently said he does not anticipate Sasaki signing right on Jan. 15th, and as Ken Rosenthal (subs. req’d) notes, that will allow his chosen team (or even just interested teams) to trade for international bonus pool space so they can make the largest financial offer the rules allow.
If the Yankees do not expect to land Sasaki, they could pivot and trade bonus pool space to his chosen team. And because there’s a hard deadline here – Sasaki must sign by Jan. 23rd or go back to Japan – the Yankees would have the leverage to demand an outsized return. You risk overplaying your hand (28 other teams could trade Sasaki’s chosen team bonus pool space instead), sure, but play it smart and you can do well.
This is not some far-fetched idea. It’s exactly what happened when Shohei Ohtani came over in 2018. The Angels traded a good prospect for $1M in bonus pool money. The Mariners got $1M in bonus pool money in a larger trade involving several prospects and Dee Gordon. The Yankees traded for a bunch of bonus pool money too. They then spent it on other players once Ohtani went to Anaheim.
Teams can add up to 60% of their original bonus pool and bonus pool money must be traded in $250,000 increments. The Yankees have a $6,261,600 bonus pool for 2025. It’s worth calling Sasaki’s chosen team and seeing what they’ll give up for another $500,000 or $1M or whatever in bonus pool space. It might be a good prospect(s). Better than what you can get with that money in international free agency.
And who knows? Maybe they’ll trade you a big leaguer. I doubt the Yankees would solve their second/third base issue with such a trade, though perhaps they’ll be able to fetch a backup catcher or lefty reliever. The Yankees traded Carlos Narváez for a good prospect and $250,000 in bonus pool money a few weeks ago. Turning around and trading $250,000 for a replacement backup catcher and netting the prospect (Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz) along the way would be a nifty bit of business.
Furthermore, the team that signs Sasaki might renege on some or all of their current agreements with international amateurs so they can instead give that bonus pool money to Sasaki. These early agreements are technically against the rules, though every team enters into them every year, and they back out of them all the time too. Reneging on an agreement is not uncommon, but it does suck for the players.
Anyone whose agreement is broken will have to head back out in international free agency and scramble to get what they can before teams spend all their bonus pool space. It’s a hard cap. There are only so many dollars to go around and many of them have already been committed. Inevitably some of those kids will be pretty good prospects, and when they re-enter the market, the Yankees will be able to pounce and sign them.
Keep in mind the Yankees already handled a major piece of 2025 international free agency business. The $250,000 in bonus pool money from the Narváez trade pushed them across the finish line with Dominican SS Stiven Marinez before the 2024 signing period closed on Dec. 15th. The Yankees were going to sign Marinez, who received a $1.65M bonus, one way or the other. They were going to sign him either during the 2024 or 2025 signing period. Getting him signed as part of the 2024 class frees up $1.65M to spend and/or trade come Jan. 15th. Trading pool money and/or signing newly available prospects will be that much easier.
The Yankees probably won’t land Sasaki and that stinks. There are still ways they can use his free agency to their advantage though. They can trade bonus pool money to his chosen team in what figures to be a seller’s market, and also jump on any prospects who lose their agreement because their team pivoted to Sasaki. There’s a way to do both too. It’s not necessarily one or the other. Regardless, Sasaki’s decision represents an opportunity even for the teams that miss out on him, include the Yankees, potentially.
Mailbag Questions of the Week
David asks: As the Yankees look to finish out their offseason, might Jurickson Profar work to complete the infield? Performed well last year, can play second or third (depending on where Jazz goes), may be available on a one or two year deal, and hopefully not so expensive that he can't be replaced with a deadline trade upgrade if he underperforms. With no ideal candidate out there, might he be the best of the batch?
Profar, 32 next month, had a career year last season, hitting .280/.380/.459 (139 wRC+) with 24 homers and his typically strong strikeout (15.1%) and walk (11.4%) rates. The plate discipline has always been there, it was the No. 1 reason he was the game’s top prospect back in the day, and he added a leg kick last year in hopes of tapping in his pull power. It worked. That was probably Profar’s career year, though the new leg kick is a tangible reason to believe he’ll be better than the pre-2024 version of himself moving forward.
Second base would be a lot to ask. Profar hasn’t played more than a handful of innings on the infield since 2020. He’s played one inning at second base (plus 39 innings at first base and zero at third base) the last three years, and he wasn’t a good defender when he played there regularly. For all intents and purposes, Profar is a full-time left fielder who can play first or second in an emergency, but not full-time. Also, he’s been a -19 DRS and -19 OAA defender in left field the last two years. He’s close to a bat-only player at this point.
I think second base is too big an ask. It’s been so long since Profar’s done it, and now he's in his 30s too. The Yankees also put such a premium on left field defense that I don’t think they would go for Profar there either (I bet Jasson Domínguez starts in center and Cody Bellinger in left in 2025), but you could see a path to signing Profar to play left, and trading Domínguez for an infielder. Domínguez for Brendan Donovan? Domínguez for Matt McLain? I doubt it happens, but I can see the sign Profar/trade Domínguez vision.
Andrew asks: Now that the Dodgers have a full OF and set at the catcher position for the foreseeable future, what about Dalton Rushing? Lefty pull hitter that can shown the ability to play the OF seems like it would be useful. With the outfield set for the moment, seems like an imperfect fit with their current roster construction.
Rushing, 23, is a consensus top 50-ish prospect who slashed .271/.384/.512 (142 wRC+) with 26 homers between Double-A and Triple-A last year, and checked just about every developmental box. Typically, a team would find room for Rushing in its 2025 lineup, but the Dodgers are loaded, and he’s currently on the outside looking in. Hard to see how he cracks their lineup without an injury.
I heard secondhand recently that the Dodgers intend to keep Rushing, and this intel seemed more solid than the “we plan to keep Gavin Lux” stuff they put out there last week. There’s long been chatter about moving Will Smith, who is entering Year 2 of his 10-year extension, to third base to lessen the wear and tear on his body in his 30s. That would free up the catcher position for Rushing.
For the Yankees, Rushing would be an ideal target. Lefty with a lot of power/exit velocity, good approach and swing decisions, high pull rate. The Dodgers had him try left field in the minors last year, but even if the Yankees don’t love his outfield defense, Rushing’s also played some first base, and the Yankees have a long-term opening there. For all intents and purposes, he’s a younger and better version of Ben Rice.
I doubt Rushing is truly off-limits. Every player is available at the right price. I don’t know what that price is though. Jasson Domínguez for Rushing in a top prospect for top prospect kinda thing? Would the Dodgers trade Rushing for Luke Weaver or even Devin Williams? Weaver or Williams plus something else? I think Rushing is a great target for the Yankees. Actually getting him won’t be easy.
Daniel asks: Any interest in trading with the Pirates for Ke’Bryan Hayes? Would fit with Cody Bellinger and Mark Leiter Jr. as a 2nd generation Yankee. If he’s healthy could fit in nicely.
I loved Hayes around 2020-21, when he first came up. The underlying contact/exit velocity numbers were excellent, so it was easy to think there was more to come offensively, and he’s maybe the best defensive third baseman in baseball right now. I’m surprised the Pirates never tried Hayes at shortstop, his defense at third is that good, but there’s nothing wrong with keeping an elite glove at the hot corner.
The bat guy hasn’t come around though. Hayes, who might be older than you realize (28 later this month), has been done in by elevated ground ball rates and a tendency to sell out for contact. Also, his exit velocity and hard-hit rates have been trending down since a nagging back issue first popped up in 2022. The back still gives Hayes trouble now and then too, so it’s an ongoing thing. That ain’t great.
The Pirates signed Hayes to an eight-year, $70M extension in April 2022. It was very obviously a “please don’t file a grievance over our revenue sharing spending” signing. The contract raised his 2022 salary from the league minimum as a pre-arbitration player to $10M. $10M! That never happens. The Pirates gave Hayes a huge raise upfront at least in part to keep the MLBPA off their backs about their spending.
There are five years and $43M remaining on that front-loaded contract. Without the extension, Hayes would have had two years of control remaining, and I would have almost rather traded for him with two years of control than five years under contract. The glove means he won’t be a total zero, but locking yourself into five years of a player who hasn’t hit (career 89 wRC+) is a bit too risky for me. I would pass.
I don’t think the Pirates are open to trading Hayes, they see him as a core piece, so this is all hypothetical. And I understand five years and $43M covering a player’s age 28-32 seasons comes with tremendous upside. There’s potential for a major bargain there. But Hayes didn’t hit when healthy and now this back issue is subtracting one of the things that made him exciting (exit velocity). It’s worrisome.
Stephen asks: After Bellinger, are there any other hitters to target in free agency or trade that could particularly benefit from a move to Yankee Stadium? (i.e., pull-happy flyball lefties). And regardless of present availability, curious who else would be absolute perfect fits for the dimensions of the park?
Free agents and switch-hitters Jurickson Profar (75th percentile) and especially Anthony Santander (94th percentile) are both big time pulled fly ball guys from the left side of the plate. Jesse Winker too, since it seems like his low pulled fly ball rate with the Nationals early last year (34th percentile) was an outlier compared to 2022-23 (64th percentile) and his late 2024 stint with the Mets (68th percentile). If Mike Yastrzemski is available, his pulled fly ball rate (93rd percentile) would fit well in Yankee Stadium.
Ryan Noda had a productive 2023 with the Athletics as a Rule 5 Draft pick (.229/.364/.406 and 122 wRC+) before things collapsed in 2024 (.137/.255/.211 and 44 wRC+). He’s a 100th percentile pulled fly ball lefty who rarely chases. His contact rates aren’t good though. Noda is with the Angels now after being claimed off waivers early in the offseason. After Noda, the lefties with the highest pulled fly ball rates in 2024 are a pair of former Yankees: Jake Bauers and Joey Gallo. Good reminder that pulling the ball in the air toward the short porch isn’t everything.
On paper, Cedric Mullins has a good Yankee Stadium batted ball profile. He’s been no worse than 72nd percentile in pulled fly ball rate the last four years and he was in the 96th percentile the last two years. Good contact rates, including against breaking balls, and enough hard-hit ability to use the short porch. Mullins has settled in as a league average-ish hitter since his 30/30 season in 2021. Not sure I’ll want to sign him as a 31-year-old free agent after 2025, but it seems like he’d benefit from Yankee Stadium.
Sandeep asks: Ohtani’s deferrals are being “discounted” for purposes of the luxury tax—the number I’ve seen most is $46M as his tax hit, with the $68M per year deferrals starting the year after his 10 year deal is completed—I see this as a 20 year deal with $2M salaries for the first ten years and $68M salaries for the last ten years. If the Dodgers are getting a present day discount on money paid 11-20 years after the “end” of the contract, then why doesn’t that also apply for money to be paid on the end years of a long contract—take Stanton’s 13 year deal. Wouldn’t it make sense to have that same sort of present day discount apply to every season of a long term deal as opposed to just adding up the total and dividing by 13 as is the norm?
Yes, it would make sense to apply the present day value discount to every season of every multi-year contract. The Dodgers and Shohei Ohtani in particular have taken it to the extreme, but deferrals are surprisingly common. Nolan Arenado, Rafael Devers, Francisco Lindor, Christian Yelich, every significant Nationals signing ever, they all have deferrals, as do many others around the league (the Red Sox are still paying Manny Ramirez). But why are only the deferrals adjusted for present day value? Isn’t Aaron Judge’s $40M salary in 2031 worth less in 2025 dollars? I don’t know why only deferrals are adjusted for present day value. And to be clear, I have no issues with deferrals. Let teams and players agree to whatever terms they want. The easy fix is changing the way deferrals are calculated for luxury tax purposes. Just stick with the contract terms. Ohtani signed a 10-year deal worth $700M, so that’s $70M a year for luxury tax purposes, period. No adjustment for the present day value of the deferrals. Keep it nice and easy for dopes like me rather than make everyone calculate the present day value of every dollar in every year of every contract. MLB and the MLBPA can grandfather in anyone who already has deferrals, and move ahead with straight average annual value for all contracts.
Ray asks: Is it crazy to think about bringing old friend Matt Carpenter back on a minor-league contract if he'll take it? He can play first (and maybe platoon with Goldschmidt to an extent given his significant platoon splits), second and even third on occasion, serve as a potential DH to rest Stanton, and can come off the bench in a pinch-hitting role (which was a huge weakness last year). Yes, he had an awful 2023, but 2024 wasn't terrible, and we might just be able to catch some of that 2022 magic again.
I am willing to give almost anyone a minor league contract, and Carpenter’s forever cool with me, so sure, why not. I don’t think second and third base are realistic options at this point in his career (he was barely able to play them when he was a Yankee in 2022), but as a platoon bat at first base and DH and off the bench? Sure. Now 39, Carpenter slashed .225/.307/.383 (95 wRC+) against righties in a limited role with the Cardinals last year, and he has that short porch swing. I wouldn’t guarantee him a roster spot at this point in his career. No way. But a non-roster deal? Yeah, why not. (I think J.C. Escarra would be a better candidate for the proposed Carpenter role).
(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)
Comments
Peter S
Good insight on what could happen with extra bonus pool money. Also great question about discounts on deferrals.
kyle
He's just reincarnated Chase Headley
Mike
They usually don’t
Will
Yeah, with the rest of the available infielders available being pretty underwhelming, it seems like the Yankees should just wait and see if Bregman's price comes down to a shorter-term deal.
kyle
I'm not sure they'll stop playing Goldschmidt even if they need to.
Sammy C
Arraez is in the 93rd percentile in arm strength so he’s got the gun for 3B but he’s basically a below average fielder anywhere on the diamond. The entire infield would have to move to their right hand side to cover for Luis’ lack of range when righties bat. Doable with Chisholm and Goldy on the right side of the infield. The benefits of on base and lead-off in the lineup make it a decent gamble.
The Original Drew
They are getting hype for their guys that the Yankees got in 2010’s
Steve
Hypothetical…if Bregman does get squeezed into say the Bellinger contract, I know everyone is out on Bregman long term but would that change if it’s a 2-3 year higher dollar deal? I dont think it will happen but I also thought Bellinger woulda gotten more last year so what do I know hah
pkmuldy
Moving Stroman is going to be harder than we think. Acquiring team has to assume he is meeting the innings contingency and will have to budget accordingly. Throw in the fact that he's a pain in the ass and I think the list of teams willing to consider him is going to be short.
chuangeUp
Gavin Lux No.20 pick -> No.2 prospect overall -> 5.5 WAR in 4 years -> traded for No.37 pick + D-tier prospect Diego Cartaya 2.5M signing bonus -> consensus top 20 prospect overall -> DFA common Dodgers position player development Ls
brg
Some speculation/projection necessary, but if the Yankees get Arráez, would he potentially fit better / make more sense at 3B (with Jazz moving to 2B)? From afar, Arráez playing 2B seemed to become more of a liability in the banned shift era, and he was obviously blocked from playing 3B in San Diego last year by Machado. Punting a little on run prevention to get the most obviously available guy to bat leadoff ahead of Judge – and as a stopgap for 2025 only – makes Arráez potentially *the* most logical bat to target at this point if I turn my front office brain on (Padres have a glut of infielders and a mandate to shed money with few ways to do so; would presumably have to give up a lot more to shake Brandon Lowe or Brendan Donovan loose from TB/STL). Also, while he's obviously no defensive wizard, the fact that he's at least played some at each of 1B/2B/3B in the last 4 seasons provides something of value in flexibility/openness to play wherever's best to make the pieces fit defensively. (Mostly wondering aloud; I don't have a good sense of how the front office might see things, and Arráez is a tough player to put a precise value on.)
