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March 14th, 2025: Cole, Stroman, Stanton, Schmidt, Smith, Mailbag
🕑 Added 2025-03-14 10:00:11 +0000 UTCUPDATE: Carlos Carrasco is now starting tonight, not Allan Winans. Winans will probably come out of the bullpen instead (unless he's hurt). Also, the Yankees say Carlos Lagrange, my No. 17 prospect, will start Spring Breakout tomorrow.
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ORIGINAL POST: The updated standings projections are starting to roll in. PECOTA dropped the Yankees from 89 wins and 40.7% AL East odds to 85 wins and 19.7% AL East odds after Gerrit Cole’s injury. FanGraphs was a bit more gentle, with the division odds dipping from 34.2% to 31.1%. Just about any on-paper advantage the Yankees had in the AL East race has already evaporated. Such is life when you lose one of baseball’s top pitchers (and many others). Here is today’s entirely too long post, starting with a few quick-hitter thoughts now that I’ve had more time to wrap my head around Gerrit Cole’s Tommy John surgery.
1. Gerrit Cole is irreplaceable (duh). There was enough velocity/whiff rate slippage the last two years to bump him out of the best pitcher in baseball conversation, I think, but he’s still among the very best pitchers in the sport. My expectation was a top 10 starter this year more than a top 2-3 starter, which is still excellent. Cole is about as close to a workhorse as it gets these days too. He has enough weapons to go through a lineup three times and is one of the few guys allowed to do it regularly. Cole's as good a bet to give you six innings every fifth day as anyone in the sport. He’s one of those pitchers who has an impact on the days he doesn’t pitch. Aaron Boone can manage his bullpen differently the day before Cole starts, the day Cole starts, and the day after Cole starts because he’s such a reliable source of innings. A week or two ago I linked to Lewie Pollis’ attempt to quantify the value of leaving the starter in and asking him to get more outs, and how much it helps the bullpen. "Simple linear regression reveals that each inning a starter pitches today lowers their team’s relief ERA by seven points tomorrow," his determined. That applies to Cole. He gets more outs than the typical starter and helps the bullpen. Cole’s value to his team goes beyond the outs he records the day he pitches. That’s a dynamic the Yankees will miss, no doubt. Cole’s absence will put more strain on the bullpen. This is just a thing the Yankees will have to deal with. Managing their bullpen differently because Cole won’t be around to lighten the load on the relief crew every five days. The bullpen having to get even just three additional outs each turn through the rotation adds up over the long season.
2. Brian Cashman spoke Tuesday (video) and said what every GM says after suffering a major injury in Spring Training. There’s not much out there, we’re going to rely on what we have, we don’t have much payroll flexibility, etc. Free agents and other teams know the Yankees are in a bind and won’t take pity on them. There’s not a whole lot available this time of year and the prices for what is available will be jacked up. Cashman’s not going to broadcast to the world that the Yankees are ready to spend money either. It’s frustrating to hear given the payroll situation (i.e. lower than last year despite going to the World Series), but saying you have money to spend is asking to be taken advantage of, you know? I keep pointing out the Yankees have a tendency to make moves at the end of Spring Training, and they do, and I believe they will this year, but I do not expect it to be anything significant. It’ll be a smaller move along the lines of, well, Jon Berti last year and Franchy Cordero the year before. Only this year it is more likely to be a pitcher now given the roster needs. Kyle Gibson is the best free agent starter and he would fit from a “we need a guy who can give us innings the next six months” perspective. If the Yankees are going to spend even a little money on pitching though, I’d rather bring David Robertson back. The bullpen’s going to carry a heavier load with Gerrit Cole sidelined, I just explained that in the last point, and Robertson’s a New York and postseason battled-test high strikeout reliever who can do whatever his team needs. Middle relief, setup, close, enter mid-inning to escape a jam, whatever. I know this won’t happen. This is just what I want to happen. If I’m going to be stuck watching a team without Cole (and Giancarlo Stanton’s dingers), at least give me one last ride with Robertson. It’s not like the Yankees have a perfectly healthy bullpen. They’re one more reliever injury away from a load-bearing Geoff Hartlieb.
3. In a screwed up way, the pitching injuries (the bullpen guys too, not just Gerrit Cole and Luis Gil) could make it easier for the Yankees to use a six-man rotation throughout the season. Not a full-time six-man rotation, but a spot sixth starter (Brent Headrick? Brandon Leibrandt? Allan Winans?) now and then, just to give the five regular starters the occasional breather. Depending how they fill out the last few spots in the bullpen, the Yankees should have some roster flexibility there, enough to do the “option a reliever > call up spot starter > option the spot starter > call up a fresh reliever” series of moves across two days. Looking at the April schedule, two days jump out as possibilities for a spot sixth starter:
The Yankees have an off-day on Monday, March 31st. Roll out the five starters for the Diamondbacks series and the first two games of the Pittsburgh series, then use a spot sixth starter to give everyone an extra day. Then, the next week, they can roll out the five starters for the Giants series and the first two games of the Royals series, then call up a spot sixth starter again. That would give everyone an extra day in the middle of that early season 13 games in 13 days stretch. The Yankees could navigate the first four turns through the rotation without anyone making a start on normal rest, if they want. And it’s worth it, no? Max Fried had some elbow/forearm stuff pop up the last two years. Carlos Rodón threw a career high 192.2 innings last year (postseason included) and had less time to recover this offseason than usual (and has a long injury history). Clarke Schmidt is still getting built up after his spring back issue. Will Warren’s about to begin the longest season of his career. Marcus Stroman’s innings must be limited to avoid his player option. Maybe it’s the days I circled above, maybe it’s different days. I dunno. But I could see the Yankees using their (unfortunately) newfound roster flexibility to bring up a spot sixth starter now and then to rest their five main guys and try to keep them healthy and effective all year. It's a long, long season. If you want guys fresh and effective in October, the planning has to start in April.
4. Marcus Stroman gains access to an $18M player option for 2026 with 140 innings pitched this year. The Yankees obviously want to avoid that, but they also need him in the rotation now because of the injuries, so it’s quite the pickle. My official take on how to handle Stroman’s innings/player option: worry about it later. They need this guy early in the season, so start him. Winning in 2025 is still the priority, and Stroman’s tendency the last few years is to pitch well early in the season, then fade the last 2-3 months. He’s a small guy with a lot of innings on his body. Maybe he just can’t hold up for a full 162 games anymore? Anyway, it’s possible, if not likely, the best innings the Yankees will get out of Stroman this year will come early in the season, so take them and then figure out the player option later. 140 innings is a lot of innings. Stroman did not get there in 2022 (138.2 innings) or 2023 (136.2 innings), and he didn’t get too far over in 2024 (154.2 innings) even though he stayed healthy all year. The Yankees need him early in the season, so pitch him, and figure out the option thing later. Chances are this will take care of itself through injury or ineffectiveness, and we’ll all look back and laugh about how Cole’s injury made us worry about Stroman getting to 140 innings in Spring Training. And if it gets to the point where the Yankees need to J.A. Happ him and manipulate his starts to avoid the player option, they’ll do that, and live with Stroman complaining about it. For now, just take the innings. The Yankees don't have any real alternatives to start the season and there will be opportunities to avoid the player option later. (Stroman could file a grievance if the Yankees manipulate his workload in a way that avoids 140 innings, but those are hard to win. The Yankees could point to his history of fading in the second half and say they were giving him extra rest to avoid another late season fade, and how do Stroman and his camp disprove that?)
5. To replace Gerrit Cole and Luis Gil, the Yankees will have to reach deeper into their pitching depth than they’d like this early in the season. They’re still in good shape – very good shape, I’d say – to fill out the Triple-A Scranton rotation though. Maybe not so much with bona fide prospects, but just with guys who can chew up innings in Scranton and not stress RailRiders manager Shelley Duncan. Here are the Triple-A rotation candidates and what they did a year ago (in alphabetical order):
LHP Edgar Barclay: 143 IP in Triple-A (5.98 ERA and 6.26 FIP)
RHP Sean Boyle: 21 minor league innings after elbow surgery
LHP Brent Headrick: 19.1 minor league innings around a forearm strain
RHP Erick Leal: 122 IP in Mexican League (4.22 ERA; league average: 5.16 ERA)
LHP Brandon Leibrandt: 83.2 IP in Triple-A (4.41 ERA and 4.81 FIP)
RHP Zach Messinger: 150 IP in Double-A (3.06 ERA and 3.54 FIP)
RHP Trystan Vrieling: 147.1 IP in Double-A (4.58 ERA and 3.73 FIP)
RHP Allan Winans: 114.2 IP in Triple-A (3.30 ERA and 4.52 FIP)
All except Boyle and Headrick have a good innings base underneath them (Leibrandt and Winans had a few big league appearances too), and it’s possible Carlos Carrasco or even Will Warren winds up in Scranton. Depends what Carrasco does with his upcoming opt out and whether the Yankees come up with a new starter these next two weeks and bump Warren down the depth chart. I don’t expect it, but it could happen, sure. Last year the Yankees were so hard up for Triple-A starters at one point that Top 30 Prospects Cam Schlittler and Ben Shields were called up from High-A to make spot starts because the RailRiders had no one else (Schlittler and Shields combined to allow 14 runs in 3.1 innings). Do not confuse this for me saying the Yankees have tremendous rotation depth and don’t need to sweat Cole’s and Gil’s absences. They definitely do. I’m just noting that, despite the two rotation injuries, the Yankees are in good shape to fill out Scranton’s rotation. It’s not the sexiest thing but it is an important thing, and, other than Boyle and Headrick, the guys the Yankees have penciled into the Triple-A rotation are coming off healthy seasons and should all be good for 120 innings, if not more. The Yankees could not say much of last summer. (The RailRiders had so many bullpen games last year. It was like 1-2 a week.)
6. Haven’t said a whole lot about Giancarlo Stanton’s injury, which does not seem to be trending in a good direction. He said surgery would be season-ending. Stanton’s missed a lot of time over the years, so the Yankees are well-versed in replacing him, but that doesn’t mean they won’t miss him. Although he’s no longer the hitter he was in his prime, Giancarlo did hit 27 homers in 114 games last year, and that is not something the Yankees can easily replace. There’s still a presence about Stanton. He’s still a threat to change the game in any at-bat. Here is the DH production the last three years:
Giancarlo Stanton: .211/.296/.452 (108 wRC+) with 37 HR per 600 PA
Everyone Else: .244/.358/.471 (132 wRC+) with 30 HR per 600 PA
But wait! Everyone Else includes Aaron Judge, who will be in the lineup one way or another. Judge is not “replacing” Stanton when he slides into the DH spot for a day. The updated 2022-24 numbers:
Aaron Judge at DH: .290/.434/.607 (187 wRC+) with 41 HR per 600 PA
Everyone Else minus Judge: .213/.299/.377 (90 wRC+) with 21 HR per 600 PA
Everyone Else minus Judge includes Matt Carpenter’s Barry Bonds impression in 2022, so yeah, you can see what the DH production has looked like when Stanton has missed time the last few years. This is not me trying to talk up Stanton and say he’s still a great hitter, though I do think he’s overhated. This is more about the poor job the front office has done replacing Stanton when he has gotten hurt. The leading candidate to replace Stanton right now is who, Dom Smith? Maybe it’s Trent Grisham with Judge and Cody Bellinger (and Jasson Domínguez and Paul Goldschmidt) rotating through the DH spot? That is probably the way to go, and that’s what the Yankees did last year when Stanton was hurt, but they would again be trading offense for defense, and I don’t know how much more offense this team can give up. I’m gonna miss watching Giancarlo’s majestic dingers however long he is out. The Yankees will miss his bat too even though it isn’t what it was at his MVP peak. (To put this another way, there’s a chance someone competing for the backup catcher job will be the starting DH.)
7. Gerrit Cole’s injury got me thinking about the next Yankees' core. This is not something they have to figure out now, Aaron Judge is still in his prime and not going anywhere, but Cole is part of that core too, and the Yankees just lost him for 1.5 seasons in his mid-30s. His days as an ace might be over. Who is the next Yankees’ superstar? It won’t necessarily be someone you expect! Go back to 2016 and the next superstar wasn’t supposed to be Judge, remember. It was supposed to be Gary Sánchez and also Clint Frazier and Gleyber Torres, two highly ranked prospects who came over at the 2016 trade deadline sell-off. It doesn’t have to be a homegrown player either. The Dodgers have one significant contributor who is homegrown (Will Smith). Their core was built via trades (Mookie Betts, Tyler Glasnow) and free agency (Freddie Freeman, Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, etc.). The Mets (Francisco Lindor and Juan Soto) and Phillies (Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Zack Wheeler, etc.) are built around trades and free agents. The Braves are the most homegrown great team with Ronald Acuña, Ozzie Albies, Michael Harris II, Austin Riley, and a few others. Point is, your franchise cornerstone need not be a superstar prospect we all see coming a mile away. It could be someone who exceeds expectations like Judge (Baseball America never ranked Jose Altuve higher than Houston’s No. 28 prospect) or someone you pry away from another team. Ideally, the next Yankees’ core is built around Jasson Domínguez, Anthony Volpe, and Austin Wells. But what if, I dunno, Engelth Urena becomes a foundational piece? Again, “the next Yankees’ superstar” is not something we have to sweat right now. It’s something to think about down the road. We are inching closer to the end of Cole’s and Judge’s peaks though. It would be nice to see Domínguez, Volpe, and Wells to really establish themselves as long-term building blocks this year, even if none of them becomes a true superstar like Judge.
8. Grapefruit League observations. Grapefruit League record check: 9-9-1 with a +12 run differential. Last weekend the Yankees took a 2-0 lead into the ninth inning against the Astros, then minor league call up Edgar Barclay allowed five runs in the span of 22 pitches, including a walk-off three-run homer. Hayden Merda, who did not pitch at all last season because of injury, threw six of 20 pitches for strikes and walked three straight batters Thursday (including two with the bases loaded) before getting the final out. Those minor leaguers will wreck your Spring Training record if you keep handing them small leads in the late innings. Here now are a few thoughts on the last few games.
Schmidt makes spring debut (finally)
After an achy back slowed him early in camp, Clarke Schmidt made his Grapefruit League debut Tuesday, and the Orioles hit him hard. Five balls in play, three with a 100 mph exit velocity, including a three-run homer by Ryan Mountcastle. Schmidt’s velocity and spin was all there. His stuff was fine. His location was not. Lotta spinners in the middle of the zone and cutters at the letter and above the zone:
“Felt great,” Schmidt said after his start (video). “Try to check the health box. Came out clean, felt really good when I was out there. I thought the stuff was sharp as well. Really happy with today and being able to move on to the next step.”
Schmidt’s final line: 1.2 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 1 BB, 4 K, 1 HR (video) on 38 pitches. He came through healthy and that’s all I care about right now. The Yankees are already down Gerrit Cole and Luis Gil. The last thing they need is Schmidt’s back issue lingering and limiting him further these next few weeks. He’s got another three Spring Training appearances remaining to get his control ironed out.
As for those last three spring outings before his regular season debut, Boone said Cole’s injury does not change the plan for Schmidt. They still intend to have him stay in Tampa when the team goes north so he can throw one last sim game on Friday, March 28th. That’s the day after Opening Day. He’ll then join the team and start the sixth game of the regular season. Could this be the plan for Schmidt?
Tuesday, March 11th: 38 pitches vs. Orioles
Sunday, March 16th: 50 pitches? (normal rest)
Saturday, March 22nd: 60 pitches? (extra day of rest)
Friday, March 28th: 70-pitch sim game? (extra day of rest)
Thursday, April 3rd: 80 pitches in regular season debut? (extra day of rest)
Schmidt won’t be fully stretched out for his first regular season start and maybe not even for his second, but that’s fine. The Yankees tend to be cautious with their starters early in the season anyway. We might not see anyone hit 100 pitches until the middle of April. (Marcus Stroman threw 101 pitches in Game 3 last year. No other starter threw even 90 pitches until Game 7, and the next 100-pitch start was Game 11.)
The Yankees are already stretched to the limit pitching-wise and Schmidt getting into Tuesday’s game was an important and necessary step. Any further delays and it was going to be time to talk about him starting the season on the injured list, and who would replace him? Stuff was fine Tuesday (Schmidt said he’s tinkering with his sinker grip), location was not. Knock the rust off and get the control locked in, Clarke.
Rice, Smith, and the DH spot
On the surface, Ben Rice is not having a good spring (5-for-31 with 10 strikeouts), but he is hammering the crap out of the ball. Three more 100 mph exit velocities Thursday and 13 100 mph exit velocities on 19 balls in play this spring. Rice added muscle in the offseason and it shows. He set a new career high in exit velocity on Feb. 25th (111.1 mph). He did it again March 1st (113.3 mph). Thursday he got one at 113.2 mph. The three hardest hit balls of his career (Majors or minors) have come this spring.
Despite that, I’m beginning to worry Dom Smith will beat out Rice for the Opening Day DH job. “Beginning to worry” might be harsh because Smith has had a good spring, but I don’t buy it at all. He hit two early homers and is 5-for-14 with five soft hits since (average exit velocity: 82.5 mph), and there’s been no talk of a swing change even though everyone and their mother talks about a swing change in Spring Training.
Smith is a .231/.311/.360 (87 wRC+) hitter in his last 1,500 plate appearances in games that count. He hit .346/.370/.538 last spring and .233/.313/.378 (93 wRC+) during the regular season, and it’s not like he crushed righties: .232/.319/.377 (95 wRC+). What is the reason to believe Smith will be even a league average hitter in 2025? Because if the answer is 20-something at-bats in Spring Training, it’s the wrong answer. (And a league average hitter is still a below average DH.)
The thing is though, Rice can be optioned to Triple-A whereas Smith can opt out of his minor league deal before Opening Day. Rice is hitting the ball hard this spring, for sure, but he is striking out a lot too (12 whiffs on 61 swings is a league average 23.6% whiff rate, for what it’s worth). That plus the fact the Yankees could lose Smith to his opt out might be enough to land Smith on the Opening Day roster and Rice in Scranton to begin the year. Or am I going crazy?
Let Smith go and Rice doesn’t hack it at DH, and you’re in a bind. But also, we’re talking about DH at-bats, not trying to preserve innings and pitching depth. Smith’s spring is even that big, you know? He's hitting .318/.318/.636. He’s not having a Trayce Thompson spring (.346/.514/1.115). The surface stats say Rice is having a bad spring and Smith a good spring. The under the hood numbers, plus Smith’s long track record as a mediocre hitter, suggest Rice should get the job. I’m worried he won’t.
“I just focus on one day at a time. Have fun,” Smith said in a YES interview earlier this week (video). “Obviously, losing Big G, that’s a big blow to this team. What we do, he’s a big part of why we’ve been so successful over the years. We’re definitely going to miss him. Like I said, these are going to be decisions that are above my pay grade. I just come here and have fun every day, and I just enjoy it.”
Latest roster cuts
Few more roster cuts this week, including the most notable to date, at least in terms of potential impact on the Opening Day roster. Here are the players sent to minor league camp this week:
Catchers: none
Infielders: none
Outfielders: none
Righties: Spencer Jones, Everson Pereira
Lefties: none
Pereira was optioned to Triple-A Scranton and that’s the first roster cut of the spring with Opening Day roster ramifications. I never really bought Pereira as an Opening Day roster candidate, but the Yankees are said to be seeking a righty hitting outfielder, and that’s Pereira. He went 7-for-20 with two homers and seven strikeouts before being sent out. Also 21 whiffs on 47 swings (44.7%), and yikes.
Optioning Pereira does not for sure mean he won’t make the team, an injury could happen, but this tells us what the Yankees want to do. They want to start him in Triple-A, which isn’t unreasonable. It’s where he belongs, really. Pereira played only 40 games last year before his elbow blew out and he needed UCL surgery. He has 75 career Triple-A games. More time in Scranton is a-okay with me.
This is a good time to explain the Opening Day roster rules that always seem to trip people up. Because Pereira’s on the 40-man roster and was optioned, he must wait at least 10 days to be recalled (it’s 15 days for pitchers). The 10 days start on Opening Day, not the day he was optioned. Same with the injured list. The clock does not start until Opening Day for optional assignments, the injured list, whatever.
The 10-day rule does not apply when the call up is replacing an injured player. This means the only way the Yankees can put Pereira on the Opening Day roster now is by putting someone else on the injured list. This happened with Luis Gil last year. He was optioned on March 8th, Cole got hurt three days later, and the Yankees had to use Cole’s injured list stint to “call up” Gil for the Opening Day roster.
Of course, the Yankees have plenty of injuries, and they could use DJ LeMahieu’s or Giancarlo Stanton’s inevitable injured list assignment to call Pereira back up for Opening Day. You don’t send down players you are considering for the Opening Day roster though. They already know LeMahieu and Stanton are hurt, and they still optioned Pereira. The Yankees want Pereira to start in Triple-A. It’s fine.
As for Jones, he went 6-for-22 (.273) with two doubles, two homers, and 11 strikeouts before being sent to minor league camp. Lots of whiffs too: 24 on 51 swings, or 47.1%. Jones had a monster spring last year (.444/.583/.722), during which he swung and missed only twice (!), then his Double-A season was underwhelming. Perhaps the whiff-laden spring this year means a monster regular season is coming? (Please.)
I count 50 players still in big league camp. Nine of the 50 are known to be injured, so it’s 41 healthy players in camp. I reckon a few of those 41 are hurt too, like Braden Shewmake, who still hasn’t appeared in a game since Feb. 26th. There’s not that much more roster trimming coming. Only 15 more cuts to get down to a 26-man active roster on Opening Day.
Miscellany
Thursday’s game was not televised, but the Statcast data again suggests there’s something going on with Max Fried’s changeup. I mentioned it following his first spring start. About 2 mph less velocity (velocity on everything else is right in line with last year) and more horizontal movement. Matt Blake said they had some ideas to “tighten the screws” on Fried’s pitches, and it seems like they found a way to deaden his changeup. It has greater velocity separation from his fastball now, and more movement too … Spencer Jones played right field in deference to Trent Grisham on Tuesday. It was his first pro start anywhere other than center field (or DH). Jones played right at Vanderbilt, so it’s not a new position to him. I just do not understand why Grisham must play center field at all times. I know he’s a very good defender, but guys, he’s your fourth outfielder. It’s okay to play him in the corners sometimes, especially in Spring Training … And finally, I think the Yankees have about a 5% success rate with ABS challenges this spring. I don’t care enough to go back and actually check, but it feels like they lose every single challenge lol. Recalibrate your strike zone, guys.
Injury updates
Gerrit Cole had his surgery Tuesday and the Yankees say it was a combination Tommy John/internal brace. They put a new ligament in and also braced it. That's the hot new thing (Jasson Domínguez had that). It doesn't change this timetable at all. Cole will still miss this season and the start of next season. This just means they put the strongest possible new UCL in there … Oswaldo Cabrera was scratched from Thursday’s lineup with an illness. Whatever it is, I hope it doesn’t spread through the clubhouse. Half the team will be on the injured list and the other will be puking their guts out on Opening Day.
Up next
Six games in the next four days. Here’s the full spring broadcast schedule and here’s what’s coming up between now and Tuesday’s post:
Friday vs. Phillies: Allan Winans (6:30 pm ET on YES, Gotham)
Saturday at Rays: Carlos Rodón (1pm ET on FanDuel Sun, Gotham)
Saturday at Orioles: TBA (6pm ET on MLBN) (Spring Breakout)
Sunday vs. Pirates: TBA (1pm ET on YES, Gotham) (split squad)
Sunday at Rays: TBA (1pm ET, no TV) (split squad)
Monday at Blue Jays: TBA (1pm ET on Sportsnet, Gotham)
Stroman threw live BP with an extra day of rest Thursday and that knocks him off schedule for Opening Day. Nothing official yet*, but it looks like it will be Rodón. After Saturday’s start, Rodón lines up to pitch next Friday with an extra day of rest, then Opening Day the following Thursday on an extra day of rest. Fried is lined up for Game 2, and presumably it will be Stroman in Game 3. Schmidt and Will Warren line up to start those split squad games Sunday, though we’ll see how the Yankees play it.
* Aaron Boone told Alyson Footer the Opening Day starter announcement is coming Friday, as in today.
As for Spring Breakout, that is MLB’s annual prospects showcase. It’s a seven-inning game. Here is the Yankees’ roster. No word on the starting pitcher or the pitching plan in general, but Ben Hess, last year’s first rounder, does line up to start Saturday, if the Yankees want to go that way. Give me seven pitchers in seven innings. The farm system is pitcher heavy and I want to see as many of those guys in Spring Breakout as possible.
Next week is the final full week of Spring Training. We are firmly in “cross your fingers no one gets hurt” territory, especially given all the injuries the Yankees have already suffered. Opening Day is one week and six days away. I swear, it feels like I was writing an ALCS preview two weeks ago.
9. Rapid fire thoughts. The trade deadline will be Thursday, July 31st, at 6pm ET this year, per Joel Sherman. Rob Manfred can set the trade deadline any time between July 28th and August 3rd (it was July 30th last season). I have no idea why it gets set when it gets set, but Manfred can set it between those dates, and this year he went with the traditional July 31st. I assume he set it at 6pm ET on a Thursday to make my workload as burdensome as possible between CBS and that Friday’s RAB post. ANYWAY, the Yankees are home July 31st. It’s a 1pm ET getaway day game against the Rays, then they’ll travel to Miami for a weekend series with the Marlins. They’ll play a game that afternoon and possibly trade someone while they’re on the plane to Florida. Awkward! … And finally, the Rays officially backed out of their stadium deal Thursday. They had a $1.3 billion stadium and ballpark district plan approved and ready to go, but they walked away because the Rays wanted the City of St. Petersburg to foot the bill for any delays related to Hurricane Milton. The City said no, we already approved financing, and the team reneged. Manfred and other owners are already pushing Stu Sternberg to sell. That seems like an inevitability now. I have no idea what comes next, but Hal Steinbrenner has previously said the George M. Steinbrenner Field arrangement is a one-year thing, not a long-term solution. As always, I’m sure there’s a price where Hal will keep it going in 2026 and beyond. Either way, the future of the Rays is once again up in the air. It is back to the drawing board. Back where they were when they first started looking for a new stadium, I dunno, 15 years ago? Maybe even further back than that.
Mailbag Question of the Week
Bob asks: It looks like the news is bad. The Yankees could go either way, surrender or add and hope lightning strikes. Since it is against their DNA to surrender, the Yankees will need reinforcements. I am thinking Garrett Cooper, who probably won't make the Braves roster, to back up 1B, DH and corner outfield and Spencer Turnbull to be a long reliever or spot starter. Neither should cost much since it is doubtful Hal will agree to increase the payroll much. What say you?
Cooper’s a good one. He hasn’t hit the last two years (.242/.297/.395 and 87 wRC+), though he has a history of punishing lefties, including a .324/.375/.529 (144 wRC+) line in 2023, and the Yankees do need another righty bat with Giancarlo Stanton sidelined. The advantage Cooper has over J.D. Martinez is a) he’s in camp with a team and getting ready for the season, and b) he can play a position (first base). It’s hard to see him making the Braves without an injury or two. A Cooper/Ben Rice platoon at first base could be productive. Not sexy, but should be low cost, and Cooper’s easy to walk away from if it doesn’t work.
As for Turnbull, a lat strain ended his season last June, and I haven’t seen any updates on his health. He might be the best fit roster among the available free agent pitchers because he can start or relieve, and shouldn’t cost much. Turnbull was pretty good for the Phillies last year: 2.65 ERA (3.83 FIP) with 26.1 K%, 9.0 BB%, and 47.5 GB% in 54.1 innings spread across seven starts and 10 relief appearances. He’s a good swingman, maybe even a step up from the “can help you navigate 162 games worth of innings before going on the shelf in October” types. Turnbull could be useful in October, sure.
I don’t love Cooper because the fact of the matter is he hasn’t hit in two years, but neither has Dom Smith, and Cooper better fits the roster as a righty bat. Turnbull, assuming he’s over the lat strain, gets a thumbs up from me. The Yankees have so many pitching injuries that a true swingman who can make spot starts and long relieve would be worth adding, and Turnbull’s pitched well in that role when healthy. The fact he’s unsigned leads me to think he’s not 100% healthy. I feel like he’d be in camp with a team otherwise.
Rob asks: Players of Cole's caliber rarely decline to exercise an opportunity to add years and/or dollars to their contract. I do wonder if Cole already knew something was going on with his elbow at the end of last season and that is why he didn't opt to do free agency when the Yankees opted not to add another year. Players do undergo an end of the season physical, don't they? But does it include an MRI on pitchers' elbows and/or shoulder?
Gerrit Cole did opt into free agency. He used his opt out, Brian Cashman confirmed it to Joel Sherman, and the two sides even agreed to push the deadline for the Yankees to add the extra year to his contract to void the opt out back 24 hours to give them more time to talk things through. Ultimately, they agreed to continue on the terms of the original deal, but Cole did opt out. He put the decision in their hands. Cole didn’t get to say just kidding, I’m coming back. He opted out and at that point the Yankees had to agree to bring him back. The Yankees had a chance to walk away this spring, 100%. Both sides knew about his medicals too. They were okay with them. Sometimes pitchers just get hurt.
I think Cole agreed to return under the terms of his original deal because he truly loves being a Yankee and didn’t want to leave. He just wanted to squeeze them for every last penny along the way. As for the Yankees, this all happened very early in the offseason, remember. They were trying to retain Juan Soto and didn’t know they’d get Max Fried. For them, it was do we let Cole walk and have to replace him while also trying to re-sign Soto, or do we just bring back this pitcher we know and love, who we don’t have to worry about fitting into the clubhouse and performing in New York? Knowing what we know now, yeah, the Yankees should’ve walked away. At the time, keeping him wasn’t unreasonable given everything else on their plate in the offseason (i.e. Soto). They knew his medicals and the risk.
Keith asks: Cole, 33 years of age, has arm injury that limited his time last year. Cole returns and pitches deep into post season. Cole opts out. Yanks re-sign him and pass on Corbin Burnes. Cole breaks in the spring. What’s wrong with this sequence?
The assumption the Yankees could have signed Corbin Burnes even though he said he prioritized his family and being home in Arizona, so much so that he had Scott Boras reach out to the Diamondbacks. The D’Backs didn’t go to him with an offer. He went to them. Yes, I’m sure there was a number that would have brought Burnes to New York, but I don’t know what that number was, and I’m not at all confident Hal Steinbrenner would have signed off on it, even after letting Gerrit Cole leave. I made the case for letting Cole walk (twice) and I have no trouble criticizing the Yankees when it’s warranted, but I don’t think it’s entirely fair to say they should have gone out and signed this other guy instead when that other guy turned down more money from an AL East team to play where he lives.
Gregg asks: How does insurance work on player contracts? For example, if Stanton (or DJ) misses half the season, do the Yankees get any type of salary relief on that contract? I know it does not help the luxury tax payroll, just wondering if there is usually any kind of reimbursement.
Insurance is a case by case thing. Teams have them on some contracts and not others, and I assume those decisions are based on the premiums and whatnot. Andy Martino says the Yankees have insurance on Gerrit Cole’s deal. We don’t know the details, but these policies usually cover the player’s salary once he spends X number of days on the injured list. I have no idea if the Yankees have insurance on DJ LeMahieu, Giancarlo Stanton, or anyone else.
Any salary covered by insurance does not change the player’s luxury tax number. It’s just cash back to the team. You may remember that insurance covered 75% of Jacoby Ellsbury’s salary from 2018-19, before the Yankees tried to void the final year of his deal in 2020. Ellsbury made $21M each of those two years, so insurance covered $15.75M per year, or $31.5M total from 2018-19. Here, via Cot’s, is the Yankees’ payroll from 2015-19 (the pandemic threw a wrench into things in 2020):
Where did Ellsbury’s insurance money go in 2018 and 2019? Not back into the roster, I can tell you that much. Insurance will cover some portion of Cole’s salary this season. The Ellsbury precedent says that money will not be spent on a player(s) to help replace him, not that there are a bevy of quality free agents the Yankees could go out and sign right now. The best case is they use Cole’s insurance money to take on salary at the trade deadline to reduce the prospect cost of whatever deals they make.
Steve asks: I understand that it’s only Spring Training, but the Clay Holmes experiment seems to be going well so far. With the Yankees starting pitching issues, would it make sense to stretch out someone from the current bullpen? Who has the arsenal to possibly do it, Weaver?
Luke Weaver seems like the only candidate and he has a pretty long track record of being a bad starter, including as recently as 2023. There is definitely something to be said for learning how to get outs as a reliever, and using that experience to be successful as a starter. Maybe that and the improved changeup Weaver picked up last year can help him make the transition back into the rotation. The risk is he does not have a breaking ball, and his velocity jumped from 92-94 mph as a starter to 95-96 mph as a reliever, and even higher at times. Okay velocity, a great changeup, and no real breaking ball is the Michael Wacha skill set and hey, Wacha’s had a long career and he’s thrown 428.1 innings with a 3.30 ERA (3.87 FIP) the last three years. The Yankees could use a starter like that (which team can’t)? I’ve been skeptical about almost every one of these reliever to starter conversions, but they keep working. Maybe the Yankees should try it with Weaver at this point? (It's too late in Spring Training to do this. This is something you have to put into motion early in the offseason.)
Dan asks: Looking at Stanton's contract, he's owed $32M this season, $19M next year, and $15M in 2027 (a total of $34M for 2026-2027). The Yanks have tended to cut players when their contracts have around $30 million remaining. With that in mind, do you think there’s a real possibility they could cut him after this season or before spring training next year, depending on how the offseason shakes out? As much as losing Stanton hurts their offense this year, having the flexibility to rotate other guys into the DH spot is huge (and that will be even more true next year when Judge is another year older). It’s something I really hope they explore. What do you think?
What Dan listed is what the Yankees owe Giancarlo Stanton. The Marlins also owe him $10M a year from 2016-28, with 2028 being the $10M buyout of his $25M club option. Jacoby Ellsbury, Aaron Hicks, and Alex Rodriguez all had $27M or so remaining on their contracts when the Yankees released them. That seems to be their tolerance for dead money, and what the Yankees owe Stanton will be in that range beginning next year. (DJ LeMahieu is there now. He’s owed $30M from 2025-26.)
The elbow issues complicate things because this is no longer a straight performance question. Stanton’s elbow trouble (elbows trouble, plural) seems significant, as I understand it, surgery to treat tennis elbow is not a slam dunk. It’s a long rehab and even then it’s not guaranteed to correct things. If the Yankees have insurance on Stanton’s contract, they might just keep him and put him on the injured list, and collect on it rather than release him and eat the money instead. There are a lot of unknowns here.
Putting aside the elbow stuff, yes, I think the Yankees would consider releasing Stanton in 2026 (or 2027) if he’s no longer performing a la Hicks and A-Rod (Ellsbury’s release wasn’t quite the same because the Yankees refused to pay him, claiming he received unauthorized medical treatment). Giancarlo is a very popular teammate and a release would not go over well in the clubhouse, and the front office can’t ignore those things, but there is a point where the on-field performance doesn’t justify the roster spot. The elbow stuff makes this hard to answer now, though I do think they’d consider it for performance reasons.
Jon asks: So, the starting pitching depth is all gone. As you like to point out when we worry about what to do with all the starters, these things have a way of working themselves out. So, now with Warren and Stroman both in the rotation, the options behind them don't look great. As happy as I am to have Bellinger, I now (this is remarkable to say) miss Cody Poteet. Should the Yankees try to bring him back? What would it take?
Poteet kinda sorta made history last month when he became the first player to use the ABS challenge system. It was only a Spring Training game, so it wasn’t a real game, but he did it before anyone else. Anyway, Poteet had a rough spring (3.1 IP, 5 H, 4 R, 3 BB, 1 K, 1 HR) before being optioned to minor league camp on March 1st, which is pretty early for a veteran guy. Poteet was a pleasant surprise last year, though he did miss two months with a biceps injury, and the Yankees didn’t let him go through the lineup a third time, which is understandable given his stuff. I see him as the quintessential up/down depth arm, not a full-time solution. If Poteet hits waivers, sure, bring him back. I would not trade a real prospect for him though. ZiPS has Poteet, Brandon Leibrandt, and Allan Winans all projected in the +1 WAR range. He’s another body more than someone you start every fifth day, no questions asked.
A different Steve asks: Everyone’s talking about Alcantara but curious on your current thoughts on Edward Cabrera as a more realistic target price-wise and current availability wise this far from the deadline. Yankees had interest in the past and I recall you doing a write up of him last year and thought he seemed like there was more to get out of him and worth a look guys for the Yankees. A lot can change in a year though.
Here’s my Cabrera write-up from last offseason. A shoulder injury limited him to 20 starts last year, during which he threw 96.1 innings with a 4.95 ERA (4.68 FIP). His strikeout (27.2% to 25.6%) and ground ball rates (55.3% to 46.9%) both dipped from 2023, and he still walked too many (12.0%). Cabrera’s stuff is electric. It’s a mid-to-upper-90s fastball, two different breaking balls, and one of the best changeups in the league. He’s the kinda guy you can easily dream on, one who gets chance after chance because every team thinks they’ll be the one who can unlock him. Given the current rotation situation, I’d absolutely take Cabrera. It is still premium stuff, and the Yankees are running low on starters. With each passing year, it looks less and less likely Cabrera will stay healthy and take that next step, but he is only 26. It’s worth a shot. The Marlins will trade anyone and POBO Peter Bendix has gone quantity (3-4 good prospects) over quality (1-2 great prospects) with his trades. I’m not sure what it would take to get Cabrera, though it could be an easy-ish pill to swallow. (Lefty Ryan Weathers has looked great this spring. He might be the Marlin to get other than Sandy Alcantara.)
Michael asks (short version): You mentioned some veteran hitters who could opt out of their minor league contracts before Opening Day in Tuesday’s post. Who are some veteran pitchers who can opt out?
Players with 6+ years of service time who sign minor league contracts automatically get an opt out at the end of Spring Training. Specifically, the opt out is five days before Opening Day. This year, that is Saturday, March 22nd. Next Saturday. For the Yankees, that applies to Carlos Carrasco, Tyler Matzek (injured), and Dom Smith. Here are the pitchers on minor league deals with upcoming opt outs (listed alphabetically):
RHP Jacob Barnes, Blue Jays
LHP Jalen Beeks, Astros
LHP Ryan Borucki, Pirates
RHP Miguel Castro, Astros
LHP Andrew Chafin, Tigers
RHP Jesse Chavez, Rangers
RHP Mike Clevinger, White Sox
RHP Chris Devenski, Mets
LHP Jake Diekman, Braves
RHP Buck Farmer, Braves
RHP Dylan Floro, Athletics
RHP Gio Gallegos, Dodgers
RHP Luis García, Dodgers
RHP Trevor Gott, Mariners (rehabbing from Tommy John surgery)
LHP Wade Miley, Reds (rehabbing from Tommy John surgery)
RHP Shelby Miller, Diamondbacks
LHP Matt Moore, Red Sox
RHP Héctor Neris, Braves
RHP Adam Ottavino, Red Sox
RHP Trevor Richards, Cubs
RHP Ross Stripling, Royals
RHP Lou Trivino, Giants
RHP José Ureña, Mets
LHP Ryan Yarbrough, Blue Jays
Several of those guys are projected to make their teams (Chafin, Clevinger, Farmer, Miller, Neris, Trivino) and I’m sure a few others are having a good spring and will force their way onto the Opening Day roster.
Anyone look exciting? Yarbrough is a perfectly fine swingman who would fill a role as a second lefty, albeit one similar to Tim Hill as a low strikeout/weak contact guy. Ureña was an adequate ground ball reliant swingman last year. Stripling has been pretty bad the last two years and might be at the end of the line (6 IP, 14 H, 12 R, 1 BB, 2 K, 4 HR this spring). Richards is a pitcher of extremes. There are times he looks unhittable and times he looks unrosterable.
The Yankees have a recent history of shopping in the opt out market. They picked up Franchy Cordero two years ago after he opted out of his deal with the Orioles. Same with Colten Brewer in 2023 and David McKay in 2022. They both opted out of their contracts with the Rays and landed with the Yankees. You’re not going to find difference-makers in the opt out market. Just guys to help fill out the roster, and that’s what the Yankees need right now, after all these spring injuries.
Adam asks: I’ve found it interesting how much run George Lombard Jr. has been getting with the big league squad this spring. I doubt he has any legitimate chance to make the opening day roster but do you think the Yankees may believe internally that he has a chance to contribute in the second half? I know they’re very high on him but it’d be nice to see him rake for an extended period of time in the minors this year as his minor league performance to date leaves a bit to be desired.
I do not believe they think he can help this year. The Yankees tend to push their top position player prospects pretty aggressively, but the second half of this season for Lombard would be very aggressive even for them. He won’t turn 20 until June and he’s barely gotten his feet wet in High-A. Lombard being a factor in the second half probably means starting the season in Double-A as a 19-year-old, moving up to Triple-A around his 20th birthday, then getting called up in August and September. That’s the “everything goes perfectly and Lombard is better than everyone expects” timeline. That’s a lot to put on the kid. Go get a real third baseman and let him develop properly. I mean, if Lombard debuts in 2026, that would be amazing. 2025 is the kinda thing that could derail his development because you’re pushing him so much.
Ray asks: This is a thought exercise more than anything else. The MLB major league/minor league rules (Rule 5, adding to the 40 man., etc.) could use a revision to give players more opportunity to earn money in their prime years while giving owners control certainty. Would either side ever go for a proposal in which clubs control players from the time of signing for 10 years, after which they're free agents? Jasson Dominguez would then hit free agency at 26 and Clarke Schmidt at 31 since he was drafted in 2017. Clubs know they hold on to players for a decade, and most players will hit free agency earlier. Who says no?
I think both sides would say no to this. The MLBPA would want a “six years of service time or 10 years after signing, whichever comes first” provision to ensure someone like Paul Skenes doesn’t remain under team control well into his 30s, and the owners won’t do that. Also, I suspect the majority of players have to wait more than 10 years to reach free agency, and the owners won’t want to give up team control. Gleyber Torres, for example, turned pro at age 16. He was a top prospect, he moved through the minors relatively quickly, and he still had to play through his age 27 season before hitting the market. Also, I don’t think a universal 10-year waiting period is fair to the players just because the developmental timeline is so different for college draftees, high school draftees, international players, etc. There is no great way to do this. Anything that extends or limits team control years will rankle one side or the other.
(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)
Comments
Brian Hanley
Nowhere to be found last October of course.
Kevin Carter
Consistently the worst takes down here….
Joe
There's this strange doomer part of me right now that wants Hal to stick to his budget, the team to struggle, the young guys to gain experience, and the front office to be embarrassed enough that stupid Hal does his usual move of overspending to get us all back on the train again. With Vladdy and Kyle Tucker out there after this year, we could truly see Hal buy both because the stadium wasn't rocking into late October. That's what an Evil Empire would do. Sign those 2 and I'll stomach Cashman calling Cole's return a trade deadline addition all he wants.
Bryan Mayer
I mean…isn’t a $300M payroll where insurance pays $75M of it Hal’s dream scenario? Hang that banner!!
Will
So what's it like working for DOGE?
pkmuldy
Saying that Stanton is overhated because he's still a good hitter is missing the point. He's hated because he's willfully squandering generational talent. Every year he struts into camp jacked to his ears and unprepared to perform his job and everyone just shrugs and looks the other way. He's clearly been lifting weights all winter and yet claims he can't swing a bat now because of "tennis elbows". I think the team finally pushed back and made noise about trying to void his contract and his handlers threw the "Giancarlo has a problem" card (body dysmorphia, anxiety disorder, some other lawyer-concocted fake ailment). They then sent him to NY to get "help". It's the same playbook, writ large, that government employees use all the time when they're planning to go out on a fake disability jag. I think he's going full Ellsbury on us now. That phony beat us out of 3 full years and an option, which is exactly what's left on Stanton's deal now. I put it at 60-40 against that he ever plays again. The team should plan accordingly. The sooner we stop keeping a candle in the window for him, the better off we'll all be.
kyle
Cashman playing coy is very different than Hal grandstanding on how much money he shouldn't have to spend to build a contender
The Original Drew
You mean Kyle Tucker? I am all for it.
Gus G
For $500m I don’t want him either but they’ll feel the need to act after an 82 w season (that’s how I see it playing out at least)
Mike Farley
Vlad, no thanks.
Gus G
82 win team. Going to end up spending big on Vlad when they should have just ponied up for Soto.
Brian
Thanks Mike. Great summary.
